
🆕 Adviser links: the hunt for tax alpha, the rise of the family office, and using AI to review your client meetings. https://t.co/XSvv0VbRQN image: https://t.co/MGALlsH37N https://t.co/Jc78m3xZ0E

China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.3%/yr in February, BELOW its 2% target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
People recoil at the idea of using the SPR just to damp prices. But now that the US has plenty of domestic oil, what other purposes would it serve? What other conditions would be an appropriate time to use it?
These aren't just news-related war pops in oil & gasoline. You're talking about four year base breakouts for a deeply underweight sector throughout retail and institutions.
LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices surged to more than $119 a barrel on Monday, hitting levels not seen since mid-2022, as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruption gripped the market due to the...
LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - Bonds across the globe sank on Monday as a rapidly worsening U.S.-Israeli war with Iran briefly pushed oil prices near $120, heightening investor fears over inflation which they bet may prompt European central banks to...
March 9 (Reuters) - Saudi oil giant Aramco https://t.co/YZZv8YNZz9 has begun cutting output at two of its oilfields, two sources said on Monday, after the vital Strait of Hormuz was choked by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and subsequent attacks...

$BLK Monthly. Blackrock started to follow private credit lower last week. Long-term, steep rising channel breakdown. Tons of room to fall https://t.co/oUBZouXc0y

The VIX just hit 30. It's only been this high a handful of times in the last 20 years. Every single time was a great buying opportunity. VIX above 30 = buy VIX above 40 = go all-in VIX above 50 = do everything you...
G7 countries looking at releasing oil reserves. Maybe 400 million barrels. How much impact will this have? What if the Iran war continues, and reserves are drawn down?
Fact 1: On today's numbers, apartment buildings take 15-20 yrs to pay back the investment in building them. Fact 2: To justify that investment, investors need to expect the buildings to generate returns for decades thereafter. So, if your city wants private...

for those who attended the morning meeting i did take that $QQQ short mentioned. and $USO long mentioned into S3 (116). i'll probably look to put some scripts on now and start work on firm biz... https://t.co/6lLCZQs2BC

Market expectations of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen to around 40%, close to their lowest levels in months following the run-up in oil prices, according to CME Group https://t.co/1DRbhts0Fk
Thank you, Andrew, Becky, and Joe for the conversation on Squawk Box this morning. FYI, here is one of the clips... https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/the-global-economy-is-subject-to-more-violent-and-frequent-shocks-says-mohamed-el-erian.html ... and here is the full interview: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-allianz-chief-economic-advisor-mohamed-el-erian.html #economy #markets @cnbc #oil #middleeastwar

Energy shock rewrites the ECB’s rate path as traders bet on hikes https://t.co/PhHe7FAJb5 via @highisland @greg_ritchie https://t.co/FvJg4WW5Ei
Warren Buffett paid $6.9M of federal taxes on $39.8M of taxable income in 2010, or a 17.3% effective tax rate. Most of his income came from capital gains & qualified dividends taxed at a max rate of 15% back then. This is...

1Y zero coupon inflation swaps have jumped (obvi) as oil prices surged Much more surprising to me is that 1Y1Y inflation swaps have risen That is, this isn’t a “price spike = recession” move All this while the super-backwardation in crude doesn’t...
How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance - Amid global oil and gas disruptions, China stands prepared for the electrostate era. https://t.co/XjVHuN91u9
Oil Prices Hit Highest Since 2022 at More Than $119 a Barrel on Iran War. Price keeps rising. Logistics and supply chain risk keeps rising. https://t.co/OKkcOWm7OV

10y UST yield (blue, RS1) USDJPY * oil (red, LS) USDCNY * oil (green, RS2) Since Japan lifted YCC on 10y JGBs 👇 "Iran doesn't have to beat the US military; it just has to beat the UST market" -Title of 3/3/26...

Lower energy prices were keeping US inflation rates from rising. But that tailwind will turn into a headwind in March with prices spiking on a YoY basis. We could easily see CPI rise above 3% if Crude Oil stays above...

Compared to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion, this Iran war has produced 2x the move in oil, but only 1/2 the move in DXY. This is exactly what I'm talking about playing out - the dollar is structurally challenged. https://t.co/H1VIqKNbr7

Hedge funds realise some profits as oil prices climb Hedge funds and other money managers sold Brent futures and options last week to realise some of their profits on former bullish positions as prices surged after the United States and Israel...

The Dollar (blue) and rate differentials (black) are massively diverging. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens - even if only a little bit - we'll see a very large drop in the Dollar. We're still very much in a regime...

left: Canada $TSX stocks right: S&P 500 equal-weighted $RSP stocks both entering the trading day RSI(5) oversold, in uptrends, on the daily charts... https://t.co/BARO3vCCGX
📺 THE MARKET MAY BE SETTING UP A SOFTWARE REBOUND The software sector is starting to look like a potential tactical trading opportunity, as the group may be stabilizing after a prolonged selloff, as buyers are stepping in. The key question is...

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$WTI above $100. $VIX above 33. Nikkei down 5.4%. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Zero tankers transiting. This isn't a supply disruption. It's a supply deletion. And the SPR is at 40-year lows. https://t.co/WaTisWuS4y

we remain oversold on a % of stocks > 10-day EMA basis using the broader S&P 1500... https://t.co/GmeGzMjJWb

Iran's oil production is down 70%, according to reports. When the fifth largest oil producing country in the world (at 5 million barrels a day) drops like this, we now know what the underlying asset price will do. https://t.co/jRLuiAK0xM

The SNB must be in the market ‘right now’ to weaken the Swiss franc, Sarasin’s Junius says https://t.co/0XhL08pNpx via @bbenrath https://t.co/IVfxoI9Dv0
Now some see it. I presented to clients a full week ago: "Tech To Lose Its Key Source Of Funds" Update here: There's A Torpedo Headed For The US Stock Market But It's Not The One You Think https://t.co/zzV2LfHfgz

my volatility $VIX vs. S&P 500 $SPX model is "into the zone" and now will require the $VIX to settle to fire a buy signal for equities... https://t.co/SP0txifsUA

The national average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has climbed to its highest level since the summer of 2024 @WSJmarkets https://t.co/6mDhre9ozD https://t.co/UVDG3Mq2Rd

The Strait of Hormuz is closed. It's not going to get more closed than it already is. All the risk is now on the other side, i.e. when and to what extent it opens. You can bet Trump is very...

$ES_F down to the 200 day MA and a bounce for now. TBD where it ends up... https://t.co/bWFRDuQQ4U
Macro: USD & yields up; oil spike lifts risk‑off. Key: $5000 sup, $5150–$5200 res. Risks: Middle East safe‑haven vs dollar strength. Trade: Buy on decisive close >$5200. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov

Either the crash the market is pricing in arrives — or this is peak fear. Why? VIX at 32. SPX moving at 14%. The gap between fear and reality is the 5th widest since 2000: -Jan '09 (GFC): +24.4 -Jan '21 (Meme...

the S&P 500 $SPX is RSI(5) oversold on the weekly chart for the first time since the Mar/Apr '25 period... we typically see this happen once/year... a reminder that suddenly becoming negative at this(that) point and selling all your stocks,...

$VRT was added to the S&P 500 after the close last Friday. Chart courtesy of @marketsurge @IBDinvestors #IBDPartner https://t.co/nBBYFdAKO8

Commodity Price Pumps and Iran vs. Russia's Ukraine Invasion - The US exports about 25% of its grain production, and prices have been declining on the back of the 2022 spikes, which incentivized more supply -- notably from Brazil. Russia's...

A 33 km waterway which is 3000 km away from you can decide how much you must pay for petrol, cylinder etc. A 33 km waterway between Iran–Oman called the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global crude oil passes through this route,...
Are elected officials about to pass the "Rental Inflation bill?" The requirement to sell future Build-to-Rent homes to homeowners within 7 years will effectively stop the construction of rental homes, decreasing new supply and thus increasing rents. https://t.co/SEU7Kc03c3
put it this way, if this situation last long enough for central banks to hike, they'll end up hiking into a recession
I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of...
On central banks: Judging from the shift in market probabilities of interest rate actions, the markets now believe that single-mandate central banks (that is, price stability), such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are in no mood...
I’ll be coming up on @BloombergTV in a few to discuss zooming #oil prices with @lisaabramowicz1 & @FerroTV Can anything be done to bring oil under $100 in the foreseeable future? @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #Iran https://t.co/hJJBdEoPvU

Flows were def risk-off-ish last week, which caused net number to slow drastically, led by the trading crowd faves $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM, $HYG. The Vanguardians however didn't blink. Get this: Vanguard ETFs took in $7b last week, the rest of...

Following the YouTube analysis , here are my simple technical trade plans on SPX & Gold (as of now)
In today's Early Look: "Flying F-Quad3s" We’re now in what we affectionately call the F-Bucket of US Equity Volatility with an updated Quarterly Nowcast for back-to-back #Quad3s in Q2 and Q3 of 2026 What do you do with that? You fly these...