European Gas Spikes on Trump Threat, Yet Below Last Month
European natural gas prices jump after Trump threatened to blockade Hormuz 📈📈 Prices rose 18% in early Asia trading (The trading day expanded to 21 hours, from 10 hours, on Monday) Still, down from the highs of last month. Drop in Asian demand has helped balance the market https://t.co/9YQMvwZ0Y6
Oil Climbs Past $105 as US Blocks Iranian Ports
Oil prices surge above $105 as U.S. Navy to blockade Iran’s ports after peace talks fail: https://t.co/lRknunNbMI
Construction Costs Surge After Energy Shock, Builders Confirm
Good read from @_willparker_ on construction cost increases happening post-energy shock. Homebuilders we surveyed in early April noted similar sentiment (several quotes below). https://t.co/QBhJxv5lrC https://t.co/9ICS9qHWaR
Hormuz Closure Threatens Petrodollar for First Time in 50 Years
No deal this weekend. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed Oil prices are surging again. U.S. about to blockade New @moronomics podcast episode breaks down what this means and why this is the biggest threat to the “petrodollar” in 50 years...
RBOB Gasoline Futures Hover Around $3.20 After Volatile Swing
RBOB gasoline futures tagged $3.40 at the March peak... dropped to $2.90... now $3.20.. chopfest https://t.co/3gXzdFHSvH
WTI Oil Prices Return to March Range
WTI in the middle of the range back to the last week of March https://t.co/UJdTdFVoGT
Tech Valuations Halve, AI Bubble Shrinks to Pre‑hype Levels
Tech valuations in the US have declined from 40x to 20x. That's back to levels before the AI hype. AI BUBBLE = NOT NEARLY AS BIG AS IT USED TO BE. https://t.co/2ApBKLgFiI
Volatility Crush Fuels 3% S&P Rally, Hints Ahead
Last week's vol crush sent the S&P 500 surging 3%. Read up on the mechanics behind the rally — and what they could mean moving forward: https://t.co/Lv07xyrLge
From Debt to Freedom: Escape the Sunday Scaries
If you spent your 20s, 30s, or 40s financially f******cking up your life with debt, no savings, & no investments but now you’re ready to work towards financial freedom and becoming work-optional so you can cure yourself of the “Sunday...
Core Short Ideas Held Over 30 Days
INVESTING IDEAS (longer-term research product) Looking for Core Short Ideas tomorrow? We've held these for 30 days or more https://t.co/LF9BBqVzXP
Iran‑U.S. Talks Could Resume Within Days, WSJ Reports
WSJ on officials: A new round of talks between Iran and America may be held in days
Minnesota Dispensary Launch Signals Huge Market for GTBIF VREOF GRUSF
I heard that there were lines out the door for this new MN dispensary when it opened yesterday. MN is going to be a massive market for $GTBIF $VREOF and $GRUSF. https://t.co/9K8hUGrcZk
1970s Home Prices Outpaced 2020s Despite Higher Rates
Home prices rose faster from 1977 to 1979, with rates going from 8% to 13% than 2020 to 2022, when rates were sub 4% https://t.co/WlkyoI0JTr
From Sanctions Relief to Blockade in Three Weeks
I’m old enough to remember when the Trump administration eased US sanctions on Iranian oil. “In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the time....
U.S. to Block All Iranian Port Shipping Monday
U.S. says will start blockading all maritime traffic from Iranian ports (both in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman) from Monday, April 13, at 10am Eastern Time.
Safety Lies in Capital Structure, Not Just Stock Price
A bad year tests a business. High leverage ends one. Earnings recover. Dilution doesn't. Bankruptcy doesn't. The equity you owned before the rescue round doesn't. Margin of safety isn't just about price. It's about capital structure.
Most Millionaires Earn Wealth Through Assets, Not Salaries
1 in 3 American millionaires never earned a six figure salary. They built wealth through assets. Not income. Your paycheck isn’t the answer.
S&P 500 Posts First Consecutive >3% Weekly Gains Since Oct 2022
First back-to-back weekly gains of >3% for the S&P 500 since the start of the bull market in October 2022 $SPY https://t.co/gEOHlfB0W1
China's Quiet Push Toward Energy Independence Accelerates
China is the most at risk and oddly silent during all of this chaos 🤔 Solar, nuclear and EV investments are obviously paying off for them. Expect them to redouble their already staggering efforts to be energy independent https://t.co/d92Cg4sy4B
Iranian Envoy Says Pakistan Talks Mark Ongoing Process
Iranian's Pakistan envoy says Islamabad talks not a one-off event but the start of a process
Forint Surges 1.9% to Three‑year High Post‑Orbán
#Hungary’s Forint jumped 1.9% against the Euro to a 3y high after voters ousted Orbán. https://t.co/k3NT819BFI https://t.co/UvqaDvox2t
Weekly Market Report Highlights AI Peak and Asset Trends
Weekly Market Report: Peak AI. Plus, a lot more. $SPY $TLT $GLD $DBC $UUP Link in reply below. 👇 https://t.co/UNL0jvfLfj
Hormuz Offset Claims Exaggerated, Real Capacity Far Lower
Bunch of people have asked so to answer directly: these Hormuz offset numbers are entirely bunk. Absolutely fair to be optimistic about the war ending and Hormuz reopening, but it’s fundamentally flawed to say we’re offset the Hormuz supply loss and...
Blockade Cuts Iran's Oil Revenue, Exposes Economic Fragility
A blockade collapses the blue bars below to zero. This collapses Iran's business model, which means there's no money for imports and the red bars go to zero. Iran is a gas station masquerading as an Islamic Republic. Time to...
S
#SPX has to drop 7.3% from current levels to break the March lows of 6,316. #SPX has to drop 4.25% from current levels to make April a red month.
Housing Market Split: Hartford 11 Days, Austin 82
The current housing market bifurcation, as told by median days to pending The typical home listed for sale in the Hartford, CT metro area goes pending in 11 days, compared to 82 days in the Austin, TX metro area Our latest ResiClub...
70‑80% of New Sellers Are Mortgage‑Financed Buyers
New listings data ranged between 30K-80K per week seasonally, 70%-80% of these sellers are buyers, they don't sell and buy with cash. Most buy with mortgages. If you can't get this simple concept, I am no use to you both,...
SP
Hyperliquid showing #SPX down 2.3% which Correlates to about a #SPY $665. Actual Futes open in 3 hrs
Oil Prices Likely to Top $115, Stay Long
According to @Polymarket, there is now a 64% chance that US oil prices will exceed $115/barrel this month. I agree. Stay long oil. AMERICANS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP. https://t.co/NCKsBE3xYX
Traders Expect SPX Pullback After Two‑Week Rally
I’d think a downside retracement will Be a welcome sign for traders after the size of the two week rally. What’s everyone’s guess for 6:30 eastern tonight for the $spx futures. They will trade all night and who knows news...
Energy Drives March CPI Spike, Spillover Risks Loom
WEI LI BlackRock: Energy contributed the most to March's CPI surge. How much will the bleed-through be to the rest of the economy? https://t.co/OPcuN31SGl
Older Buyers Driving Mortgage Rate Lockdown, Data Shows
Again, if you analyze the buyer profile data, there’s no logical way we experienced a mortgage rate lockdown. The largest group of buyers tends to be older; the coupon data consistently showed this as they sold their homes with lower...
Market Watch Claims Falling Futures Despite Closed Market
Amusing that MW says futures are moving lower when they're obv closed, this lady doesn't want to be writing during the back nine https://t.co/sHdhxZ7dE0 https://t.co/eUWgp9AmMe
Saudi Arabia Gains as Oil Prices Surge, Rival Vanishes
The House of Saud wins with higher oil prices and the elimination of a regional competitor
Egypt's Inflation Surge Mirrors Excess Money Supply Growth
Egypt’s inflation rate is 15.2%/yr. Egypt's money supply is growing at 16.9%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth rate of 11.1-15.1%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Egypt's 3-5%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/Daeo3HbmBW
Hormuz Blockade Threatens Oil Supply, Markets Await China or Trump
Strait of Hormuz blockade is live 🚢❌ 20% of world oil = gone 🛢️ Equities gap down 📉 Oil gap up 📈 $115 WTI on the table 🎯 One question matters: does China blink first or does Trump? 🇨🇳🇺🇸 Trade...
Saudi Summons Iraqi Envoy over Cross‑border Oil Attacks
Saudi Arabia summoned the Iraqi ambassador in Riyadh, saying that some of the most recent attacks against the kingdom were launched "from Iraqi territory." (KSA likely means some of the attacks during the night of April 7-8 that targeted Saudi oil...
US Misunderstands Existential Threat to China, Russia, Iran Supply Chains
100%. Virtually no one in US seems to understand a) This is existential to China & Russia as well as Iran b) What that potentially implies for global supply chains
Oversold Tech Stocks Offer Fresh Buying Opportunities
I went through hundreds of charts this weekend and there's obviously lots of carnage in tech, growth, cloud, cyber, software, fintech, etc... many stocks down -40% or more in the past 6+ months... many multiples getting compressed by 60% or...
Commodities Futures Add Value to Balanced Portfolios
If you look at the data, investing in commodities futures makes sense within the context of a total portfolio approach. https://t.co/KYqknJKQ54
Turkey Drains Securities and Gold to Fund FX Intervention
Indeed. Turkey sold a ton of fx (essentially draining its securities portfolio) and sold/ swapped gold to generate even more fx to fund its massive March intervention ... 1/x https://t.co/RsDslEBwvB
Most Assets Slide, Oil Climbs Ahead of Monday Open
Taking stock of key markets through crypto and other proxies to get a loose expectation for Monday's open: - Bitcoin (BTCSUD) down -2.9% - Dow down -1.3% - Gold (XAUUSD) down -2.8% - US Oil up +2.9%
Lowest‑P/E Stocks Explode: Micron Up 520% Year‑to‑Date
The cheapest stock in America is up 520% in a year. The 10 lowest-P/E stocks are up 70% YoY. Micron has the lowest P/E in the S&P 500 at just 4.4x. Disclosure: long $MU https://t.co/W2gEcOm2By
Data Shows Mortgage Rate Lock‑Down Theory Overstated
If the mortgage rate lock-down theory were a real thing, then existing home sales would be near 2 million because the 4 generational sellers that were buyers since late 2022 would not have sold and bought homes. As the data...
Stop Taco Debates, R
at some point you have to stop debating “taco” and think about how you’re going to invest differently in a completely changed world… https://t.co/duln6vPvGQ
Coutts Raises Minimum to £3 Million, Heightening Exclusivity
King Charles’ bank just got even more exclusive Coutts, the centuries old private bank to the British establishment, triples the minimum to £3M https://t.co/dosmyLSXbu
84% Chance S&P Hits New High, Yet 1966 Crash Warns
The odds of the S&P 500 making a new ATH in Q2 after retracing 75% of the downtrend are 84%, but beware the 1966 case which turned into a 23% crash into October. https://t.co/aV92MKXo9S
SPY and QQQ Need Specific Drops to Fill Gaps
For those keeping score at home: It would take declines to 659.61 in $SPY and 588.98 in $QQQ to fill Wednesday's gaps. (Reminder: There's no law that says they have to be filled...) https://t.co/XMoxZZ4gJv
National Inventory Nears Negative YoY, but Not 2008 Levels
The national inventory is on the verge of going negative year over year. States like Florida that have seen a clear year-over-year decline were working from more elevated levels. Context is key, it's not worse than 2008, doom porn is...
Maximize Tax-Free Growth: Contribute to 2025 Roth IRA Now
Since the April 15 deadline is coming up remember that you can still contribute for the 2025 year for your Roth IRA The Roth IRA is one of the greatest wealth building tools available. Make use of it if you can...