Trump Announces Hormuz Blockade, Oil Jumps 7%
Trump says the US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz begins at 10AM ET Oil already up 7% and we haven't even started. I'm watching response from China 🇨🇳 How much pain are you pricing in for stocks today? 👇 $CL $USO $SPY $QQQ $XLE #Hormuz #OilPrice #MarketOpen https://t.co/ygoh9O1h08
IGV Records Its Worst Week Vs. S&P 500
Software stocks $IGV coming off their worst week in history relative to the S&P 500 https://t.co/zaCRYoPb9i
Indexes Surge, First Dip Signals Buying Opportunity
indexes been on extended run UP...first flush below was buying op. Now: hold this upside 240 channel, or put in a lower high today... https://t.co/ChRsgSpkin
Top and Bottom S&P 500 & Nasdaq YTD Winners
Best and worst performing stocks in S&P 500 and NASDAQ YTD (Past performance is no guarantee of future results #DYOR)
Avoid Jumping Into Gold Gap Moves
Another lesson in gap trading in gold last night - NEVER jump into the move
Pump Prices Up 50
BofA: Price at the pump is up 50% from January low Energy 2026 EPS growth revised up by >25ppt since the Iran conflict began, but minimal cuts to consumer sectors so far https://t.co/eQAC20Kj0o
SPY Tests Critical $671‑$673 Support Level
$spy morning glance as we see if $671-$673 can hold. That would be impressive https://t.co/JegnizirdN
Apartments Built Cheap, Owned Short-Term, Profit-Driven
Because most apartment buildings are financed with short term money Those facade materials are cheap … and the people who BUILD apartments do not OWN buildings long term Buildings are designed as financial products: to maximize rents at stabilization
Only 1 in 10 Active Funds Beat Benchmarks
Why I avoid a lot of actively managed funds. Over 15-20 years over 90% underperform their benchmark. In other words.... Only 1 in 10 are really worth your money.
Markets Wobble, Oil Climbs; Stay Nimble Amid Volatility
The looming blockade has the markets off to a shaky start to the week, and $GS shares are trading lower despite being the first bank to report and and bring a top and bottom beat. All eyes on Oil futures...
Buy Great Businesses Only at Suitable Prices
Graham didn't say "buy great businesses." He said buy them at suitable prices. There's a word missing from most investor vocabularies. That word is "suitable."
All US Index ETFs Surge Above 50‑DMA, DIA Lags
All of the key US index ETFs across market caps moved back above their 50-DMAs last week with the exception of the Dow 30 ETF #DIA
Avalyn Pharma Outlines IPO Fund Allocation, IVVD, REPL Updates
13April: How does Avalyn Pharma plan to spend the proceeds of the IPO for which it has filed paperwork? Read what's been made public about the company's planned initial public offering, plus updates on $IVVD and $REPL in my latest...
Algorithm Cuts NFL Streaming Costs by 60%
D.C. Memo: Die-Hard @Eagles Fan in Indiana Created ‘Optimization Algorithm’ to Slash His Annual @NFL Streaming Bill by 60%; HUDDLEMAXX relies on ‘strategic trial stacking’ to time free trials and promotional windows to help NFL fans cut their...
Semiconductors Outpace Energy Gains After Iran Tension
fun fact: the energy stocks have been "strong" since Feb 27th (the day before the U.S./Israel attacked Iran)... $XLE +1.8% 👀 but the semiconductors? $SMH +7.5%
Rising Essentials Costs Shrink Household Discretionary Spending
This is what I recently referenced when I said “You can’t squeeze blood from a rock (or a turnip, if you prefer).” When essentials spending devours an increased share of a household’s budget, they simply spend less on ‘wants’ as they...
Wise's Dual-Listing Boosts Value After Flat Share Price
Given that the dual-listing of $WISE may be completed within a month, the blockbuster quarter the company just posted may come in particularly handy. Wise IPO'd at GBP8/share, but shares quickly ran up, and basically, the stock is (almost) flat...
Watch 6740 S&P Support; Dip Buying Opportunities
$SPX moved from 6316 (~9.8% off highs) to 6845, and the oscillator went -40 to +60, so some downside makes sense, 6740 is the big gap support from last week. If 6740 doesn’t hold it can get sloppier, but there...
ETFs Smash Quarterly Volume Record, Signaling Strong Inflows
ETFs as a group set a quarterly record w/ 22T worth of shares traded in Q1. March was also biggest volume month ever. Volume is on pace to beat last year’s record by 50%. Volume portends flows historically so it’s...
Blockade Pressures Iran; Oil Prices Expected Under $120
I've pushed for a blockade for over a month. Now we have it. It's the best way to dismantle the mullahs and get them to the negotiating table in good faith. Key risk to the US is another spike in...
Record‑high Loans Boost Outlook for Bank Earnings
Looking forward to strong bank eps this week. This will help: Federal Reserve H.8 report show both loans and deposits ended 1Q26 at record highs. In 1Q26 loans jumped 7.5% y/y - its fastest pace in 3 years....
Japan‑1990s and China Today Share Real‑estate Crisis Dynamics
New @nberpubs: "A Tale of Two Countries – The Real Estate Crises in 1990s Japan and Contemporary China" https://t.co/au6sFcLXSp "striking parallels in investment dynamics and consumption responses despite profound institutional differences." https://t.co/yz5TYRePB8
Sector Churn Protects Index, Crisis Far From
I don't have a particularly strong view on equities here—the sector churn is conducive for active managers and leaves the index protected to the downside—but for those who claim this crisis is "over" ... what are you smoking?! 1/2
Crude Oil Joins 2026 ‘Up‑Too‑Much’ Risk List
Up-Too-Much Risks in 2026 - Crude May Follow Natural Gas, Silver Bitcoin in 2025, followed by silver, gold, copper and natural gas in 2026 -- and most importantly, crude oil -- can fall into an "up-too-much" category by year-end. There are...
Gold Production Rises, Cash Surges, Guidance Stays Steady
Minera Alamos $MAI.V $MAIFF Q1 2026: Produced 8,734 oz gold at Pan mine Sold 9,134 oz Cash up to $46M (from $34M YE2025) ~18k oz cumulative since Oct 2025 acquisition. 2026 guidance unchanged: 32-38k oz.
Energy Markets Stay Calm Amid Third Gulf War Lull
We're in the "no-fighting, no-peace, and no-oil" phase of the Third Gulf War. The energy market remains incredibly sanguine: despite Monday's rally, oil and European natural gas prices are below a week ago.
Copper’s 2026 Rally Threatened by Equity Market Decline
Copper's Big Green Candle Risks Turning Red in 2026 The last three down years for copper (2015, 2018, 2022) coincided with drops in the US stock market, suggesting a dependency on a rising equity tide in 2026. Full report on the...
Extreme Fear Fades as Markets Weather Hormuz Tension
Trump ordered a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz overnight. Oil surged 8% above $100. The UK refused to participate. France is forming its own mission to reopen the strait. And Bitcoin dropped... 1%. After 12 straight days...
Spyre's SPY001 Achieves 40% Remission in UC Trial
Spyre $SYRE just reported SPY001 (long-acting alpha4beta7 antibody) ulcerative colitis induction data. Here's the efficacy chart, notable for a 40% clinical remission rate at week 12, albeit with small number of patients. https://t.co/aEoLWPRjEL
Family Offices Confront Succession, Tech, and Downsizing Trends
Monday's Family Office Buzz email There's something for everyone ∘ Robinhood's cofounder on wealth platforms ∘ Family offices and direct deals ∘ Bloomberg's family office playbook ∘ The cost and structure of a $10M family office ∘ A succession wave in family businesses ∘ Billionaires in support...
Iran Conflict Triggers Oil Shortage, Reshapes Market Winners
The Iran war has slashed oil exports from the Persian Gulf, creating a global supply shortage that's just starting to hit markets. As prices are driven up and broader economic impacts unfold, winners and losers will begin to emerge. Full Newsletter:...
Iran's 13-Day Oil Shutdown Signals Permanent Damage
The sharpest Iran economic analysis out there right now comes from @miadmaleki, Iranian-born former US Treasury official. 13 days. That's when Iran shuts off its own oil wells. Hormuz blockade = nowhere to store oil. Can't restart them easily. Permanent damage. Not a...
US‑Iran Talks Collapse; Blockade Threatens Trump‑Xi Summit
US-Iran negotiations failed over the weekend. The risk-off moves today though have mostly been mild. US blockade of Iranian ports could disrupt next month's Trump-Xi meeting. Bab-el-Mandeb Strait may also be brought into play. See https://t.co/13UStEpBOS https://t.co/1u6Xn5BKh9
China's Q
1/3 According to the People's Bank of China, the total amount of aggregate new financing in the first quarter of 2026 was RMB 14.83 trillion, or 2.3% less than in the first quarter of 2025, with more than 100% of the...
Live Premarket Stock Update: Redler’s #630Club Highlights
⏰ Scott Redler’s #630club - LIVE Premarket Stock Market Update ➡️ Free VIP List Newsletter: https://t.co/EW4O2nc6Yl $NVDA $TSLA $IBIT $SNDK https://t.co/QM03KUSc1S
US Inflation Stays High, No Fed Cut Yet
Bond Market Message = #HFL = Higher For Longer on US Inflation with no Fed Rate Cut bailout (yet)
Oil Surges 8.2%, Signaling New Quad3 Cycle Highs
Did you buy more Oil and Energy Stocks when they were on sale last week? Oil inflating another +8.2% here with immediate-term upside in our Risk Range™ Signal to new #Quad3 Cycle Highs https://t.co/ye9Xfr03uQ
ALLO's Alpha-3 DLBCL Data Set to Spark Pre‑Market Move
Key $ALLO catalyst coming pre market today, with first data from cema-cel's Alpha-3 study in DLBCL consolidation. What to look for: https://t.co/a19BVEppqP
Germany's Market Slides 1.1% Amid Quad3 Stagflation
GERMANY: been an easier short than $SPY (which I'm not short), down another -1.1% here this morning with #Quad3 Stagflation hitting that economy hard this summer https://t.co/GlXz59NyOM
HSBC's Kettner Stays Bullish Despite Modest News
HSBC's Max Kettner is still bullish: "We don't need a full return to normality in order to fade the moves of the last 6 weeks. Given our positioning framework is still sending the most bullish signal for risk assets since...
CTA Buying Surge May Quickly Flip to Selling
The Flows @t1alpha CTA Buying (epic last week) can easily become Selling Will walk you through the math on The Macro Show https://t.co/Z8lRHULEn1
Tech Stocks Show K‑Shape Recovery You Can’t Ignore
The K-Shape economy for others may not be your problem. But this K-Shape in Tech stocks actually is 👀 https://t.co/jQdzcPqdUp
Hungarian Forint Leads Global Currency Gains Today
Hungarian forint is far and away the best performing major currency in the world today https://t.co/fg6Z1FKw5u
Beyond Price: Analyze Volume and Volatility Momentum
When you "look" at markets, are you just looking at the color and the "Moving Average" of price or the ROC of the volume and volatility of that price? https://t.co/qgJeZy0Z5c
SPX Implied Vol Premium Plummets From 95% to 13
$SPX Implied Vol collapsed to a +13% premium (vs. 30-day realized) vs. a +95% premium 1-month ago https://t.co/JxuNpzgXz1
Gold Volatility Signals Caution for US Equities
Cross Asset Class Vol as of Friday's close = yellow lights for US Equities; Gold Vol in particular matters at this level https://t.co/VoSL6lvMfU
SPY Volume Decelerates After Seven Straight Gains
VOLUME: CTAs were still chasing Friday, but total volume continued to decelerate post 7 straight up days for $SPY https://t.co/4GpuK0sjtf
Good News, Falling Stock Signals Bearish Trend
If all the news about your stock is good and it’s still going down, that is a bearish signal few traders have learned to listen to. https://t.co/DgIP78v7Wv
SPY's Friday Rally Masked 18:1 Downside Risk
For those of you who chased $SPY on green on Friday, there was only 18:1 downside vs. upside in our immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal. No worries
Two‑Week Bounce Shows Market Resilience Globally
Mixed/small red arrows around the World as I’d say this is “in stride” after the size of the two week bounce that just took place. https://t.co/HVI7wGoFBW