Prioritize Time Horizon Over Rate Forecasts in Bonds
When It Comes To Bonds, Don't Be A Hero: Why taking a strategic approach to bond investments based on an investor's time horizon and cash needs could be superior to a tactical approach focused on anticipating future interest rate moves. (@christine_benz | @MorningstarInc) More on investment planning this #WeekendReading: https://t.co/cynm55IS7z
Monthly Chart Shows TLT Outperforming Value Pitches
a few monthly charts i thought i'd share... #monthlycharts although there have been many pitching U.S. treasury (bonds) for value, the chart speaks... $TLT https://t.co/3VMEeufVcn
Texas Roadhouse Heading Toward Major Downtrend Breakout
$TXRH Daily. Not everything is ignoring consumer headwinds: Texas Roadhouse (and $CMG) former restaurant winners acting poorly. Roadhouse on cusp of major breakdown, in clear downtrend https://t.co/Ee34HFvgCg
US Sanctions Joseph Kabila After 80‑company Exposure
Joseph Kabila was sanctioned today by the US government. In 2016 Michael, Franz and I linked he and his family members to more 80 companies, most in Congo but some outside. Check out the list below and the original story...
US Blockade Pressures Iran, Mirroring Hormuz Tactics
The US blockade aims to do two things: (i) give Iran a taste of its own medicine for blockading the Strait of Hormuz; (ii) send Iran’s economy into a tailspin and thereby bring the regime to the negotiating table in...
Gasoline Crack Spreads Hit 2022 High Ahead of Summer
US gasoline crack spreads sitting at their highest level since 2022. Brent crude is currently going for ~$107.50 per barrel. New York Harbor gasoline going for $150 per barrel. And summer driving season is about to kick off. https://t.co/nFAPXdyFZx
ORKA Slides 30% Since Monday, Over 40% Pre‑Market
$ORKA down ~30% from Monday’s high (>40% if you count the liquid premarket trade >$100). $SYRE: https://t.co/kUnkBQtUC7
April's Weaker Dollar Signals Shift to Risk‑Off
Biggest shift in market dynamics in April? Weaker US Dollar. Stronger $USD in February and March provided an important signal of rising risks, and a weaker $USD in April suggests risk-off vibes from the currency markets. At...
Buy Preferred CEFs at 5%+ Discount for Strong Yield
Macro: Preferreds yield high amid income hunt. Drivers: CEF discounts, leverage, tax treatment. Risks: rate sensitivity, leverage, term‑fund liquidation. Trade: buy preferred CEFs trading ≥5% discount for monthly yield. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China Still Dominates US Soybean Exports Despite Low Volumes
🇺🇸🇨🇳Even though China.... ✔️Didn't start buying until late October ✔️Has secured the smallest U.S. tonnage in 19 years .... it's still by FAR the leading destination for U.S. soybean exports so far in 2025/26, a reminder of how hard China is to replace...
Fedlock's Hawkishness Score Climbs Sharply with Recent Statements
As discussed below, Fedlock's aggregate hawkishness score continues to rise noticeably, with the latest communication from Kashkari, Powell, and Hammack all registering high relative to their recent comms https://t.co/b7k8lndodx
FSK Trades at Half Book Amid Massive Losses
The $FSK setup: > Stock at $10.51 vs. $20.89 reported NAV > $517M in realized losses over five quarters > PIK at 34% of NII > 21 names on non-accrual > Bonds got downgraded to junk Stock trades at ~0.54x of book while...
Lender Concessions Halve as Redemptions Surge
Direct lender concessions just collapsed. Q4 2025: 67% of lenders made borrower-friendly concessions to win deals. Q1 2026: 31%. The discipline showed up the moment the redemptions started. Funny timing. Source: William Blair
Bondholders' Holdout Triggers Spirit Airlines' Liquidation
Spirit Airlines is shutting down. The bondholders had two choices: 1. Take 10% of the equity in a Trump-backed reorg. 2. Hold out for more and risk liquidation. They held out. The cash ran out. Liquidation it is.
Dealers Short Gamma as SPX Rises 2.3%
What did I write Wed AM to warn clients: "Dealers enter aggressive short gamma should the index move 2-4% higher. via GS" And what has SPX moved since Wed low? +2.3%. Careful late bulls...
Trade Triggers, Not Predictions: Execute only What Moves
This is what most traders miss: Not everything needs to work. Today: Some names triggered and moved ($RXT, $SOUN , $DOCN) Some never triggered $(INFQ, $RRC, $EONR, $OPEN ) Same watchlist. That’s the difference: → We don’t predict → We wait for the trigger → We take what goes Execution...
Rising Asian Conflict Threatens Overseas Tech Infrastructure Supply
I can’t help to wonder how much of this infra is created overseas and the potential risk of conflict rises in Asia. Chips. Servers. PCB. PCA. Power. Etc.
Iran War Stalemate Fuels Oil Price Gamble
The bottom line is the Iran War is "stuck." No War (shooting) No Peace No Shipping No Crude Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, and/or Helium And it will stay "stuck" until circumstances change. The most likely change ... * The US/Israel restart kinetic attacks with the goal...
IPhone Demand Hits Decade-Highs, Excluding Pandemic Spikes
My initial analysis regarding Apple’s 2Q26 earnings and 3Q26 guidance is found in the Above Avalon Daily update linked below. After spending some time going through my Apple earnings model (which is accessible via an Above Avalon Models subscription), the...
Nvidia’s Decade Return Dwarfs All, Even Inflation
Last 10 Years NVIDIA $NVDA: +22,875% Bitcoin $BTC: +17,205% $AMD: +10,030% Tesla $TSLA: +2,362% Apple $AAPL: +1,233% Google $GOOGL: +999% Netflix $NFLX: +932% Microsoft $MSFT: +844% Amazon $AMZN: +717% Meta: $META: +425% S&P 500 $SPY: +312% Gold $GLD: +245% US Inflation: +39%
Big‑Tech Employees Use Simple Playbook to Earn Extra Income
To anybody at Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google, Microsoft/LinkedIn, Broadcom, Salesforce, and a handful of other big tech companies Here's the general playbook that people I work with are running (w/o going into Airbnbs/short-term rentals or starting a business):
First Solar's CuRe Launch Fuels Margin Expansion
First Solar reaffirms 2026 guidance as CuRe launch and record India sales drive Q1 margin expansion #energysky -- via pv magazine usa: https://t.co/DfMR1ukrDi
Renewables Shield Consumers From Fuel Price Volatility
Retail electricity prices are influenced by fuel volatility, transmission upgrades, grid maintenance, and utility rate structures. Natural gas price spikes, such as those seen in 2022, directly raised electricity costs in gas-dependent regions because fuel costs are passed through to...
TMDX’s OCS Tech Drives Rapid Adoption, Pressures Valuation
$TMDX reports Tuesday after the close This is the only company on earth that keeps a donor heart, lung, or liver beating outside the body Not a metaphor... the organ stays warm and oxygenated e2e The number to watch on Tuesday isn't rev,...
Historic LEI/CEI Low Signals Recession, Cyclicals Set to Crash
The ratio of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) showing the steepest decline in the entire history of the metric and now at a level typically seen during or just before recessions. Small/mid + cyclicals rip hard once...
VIX Under 20 Signals Low Volatility and Low Risk
As long as the $VIX remains safely below 20, the options market is telling us: low volatility = low uncertainty = low fear = low risk https://t.co/GyE0OQZLAM
Estimating May's Chances For
What is the probability of a bilateral agreement between to end the war between Iran and the U.S. being announced in May in your opinion
Short‑term Oil Loss From Hormuz Can Be Offset
In the short-term and for a limited time, the losses of oil from the Straits of Hormuz can be made up. More at today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/xfKk6k7sQC
Open-Source AI Portfolio Advisor Runs on $1/Month
I built a system called Sheet Advisor and I'm open-sourcing it today. The idea: you bring an investment thesis, Claude helps you turn it into an actual strategy with specific positions and rationale for each. Then it watches your portfolio every...
Homebuilder Earnings Show No Improvement over Soft March
Messaging throughout homebuilder earnings this week has been that April was similar to March. That’s not exactly good news given March was soft.
23 Habits That Built My $1M Net Worth
I built a $1M net worth in 7 years. I didn't come from money. I didn't time the market. I didn't get lucky. Here are the 23 financial habits that made my family wealthy:
China's Auto Subsidies Outpace US Tariffs on EU Cars
Neither the wolf nor the shepherd are friends to the sheep. PRC subsidies and vertical integrated auto companies are conquering the world (outside the US and Canada). US just hiked tariffs on EU light vehicles to 25%, up from...
SPY Likely to Trade Flat Around $722
Gamma exposure update for $SPY: $722 is currently the MVC, we're still in this $720-$725 range. I am thinking we chop around $722 and stay within this range. Not forcing anything else today, expecting volume to die out.
Presidential Belligerence Drags Markets Lower, Pricing Risk
"Every time the president leans into belligerence... the stock market falls." Markets can’t vote, but they can mark down the price of risk. https://t.co/BapJYuCaQL
Markets Rebound in Days, Not Months After Shocks
The speed of this market recovery is striking. A nearly 10% drop during the Iran conflict was erased in just 11 trading days, one of the fastest rebounds ever. It shows how markets behave now. Shock, then immediate repositioning. https://t.co/vGeqv04VWN @a16z
Which High‑Yield ETFs Can Sustain Massive Payouts?
Yearly dividend income with $1,000,000 invested: - JEPI: $82,900 - ICAP: $93,300 - OVL: $105,000 - JEPQ: $104,300 - SPYI: $119,000 - QQQI: $113,900 Which of these ETFs do you think can sustain their massive dividend payments?
QCOM's 47% Surge Fueled by Hype, Not Fundamentals
QCOM deep dive. Stock at $175.21 today, off Thursday's $179.58 close where it ripped +15.12% on the hyperscaler chip news. From $122 on April 7 to $179 in three weeks — a +47% move on a story that doesn't move...
Spot Absorption: Smart Money’s Pre‑Breakout Signals Revealed
Ever notice how a stock explodes the exact moment you get exhausted and sell? It feels personal, but it’s actually mechanical. While the crowd is "giving up" during a sideways range, the Composite Operator (the Smart Money) is quietly checking off...
US Markets Surge $400B, New All‑Time Highs Signal Bull Run
🚨 BULL MARKET IS COMING 🚨 U.S. markets opened adding another $400,000,000,000 today. S&P 500 hits new all-time high 🔥 NASDAQ hits new all-time high 🔥 Over $6 trillion Mcap added to the US stock market in APRIL. POSSIBLE SIGNS OF END OF WAR &...
Recovery Lacks Breadth, 4:1 Ratio Signals Weakness
Officially one month off the low, and this recovery has been unlike any in recent history. Best day of NYSE breadth has been just 4:1 advancers to decliners. All recent recoveries had at least two days of better than 5:1, and...
SoFi Posts Record Growth, yet Shares Tumble 15%
$SOFI just printed the cleanest fintech beat I've seen in years Net revenue up 43%, hit 1.1B for the first time Net income 167M EBITDA up 62% 18 straight Rule of 40 quarters Stock dropped 15% the same day Why? Two reasons that are actually fair...
Value Investing Outperforms: Owner Earnings Explained in Q1 Webcast
This week in value: Why value investing usually outperforms (LiveWire) Causeway International Value Q1 2026 Webcast (Causeway) What is Owner Earnings? (The Warren Buffett Guide) (OSV)
Gas Prices Surge From $2.80 to Over $4.60
How to win friends and influence people: National average gas price is $4.39 today, but heading to $4.60-ish over the next week. Was $2.80 at the start of the year. https://t.co/WZder6FJCU
Use ADR to Trade Within Realistic Daily Ranges
Beginner traders chase moves with no limits… profitable traders know how far price can realistically go. 📈 That’s where Average Daily Range (ADR) gives you a real edge. ADR shows you how much a stock or index typically moves in a day. If...
Japan's FX Trade Slashes Net Debt, Cuts Gross Debt
Alternative framing for Japan's intervention Japan sold $35 billion of dollars bought at around 80 yen the dollar for close to 160 yen, booking a massive profit that reduced Japan's net public debt -- and in the process brough Japan high...
Looser Labour Market Means Milder Inflation Shock, Smaller Policy Response
Yesterday the BoE put out some analysis, basically showing the difference between now and 2022. Because the labour market is not so tight anymore, the shock to inflation should be much less persistent - justifying a smaller monetary response (if...
Hold ITW Now, Wait for 2026 Entry Point
ITW’s a solid hold for now, but 2026 looks tricky. Tariffs and macro headwinds could pressure earnings, so new buyers might want to wait for a better entry point. Patience is key here. IndustrialInvesting
Google Cloud Poised to Reach 70% of AWS Size Next Year
"Back in 1Q’20, Google Cloud was only 27.2% of AWS revenue. Six years later, it has become 53.3% of AWS revenue...I find it quite remarkable that Google Cloud may be ~70-75% of AWS size by next year." $GOOG $AMZN https://t.co/DKmcM2dWJU
Venezuelan Oil Becomes Viable only Above $110/Barrel
what changed? Oil prices & global inventories At $60/barrel Venezuelan oil is too risky/unprofitable. At $110/barrel Venezuelan oil looks investable
Tech Rally Defies Stagflation as ISM Stalls
Basically, the call wall (SPX $7200 was ceiling/now floor) keeps getting rolled up as AI/Tech/Memory names beat, while the real economy enters stagflation. US APRIL ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX UNCHANGED AT 52.7; EST. 53.2 US ISM MFG PRICES RISE TO 84.6, HIGHEST SINCE...