Social•Feb 13, 2026
AI-Driven Low Rates Boost Term Premium Compression, Hedge Long Bonds
A very positive setup for duration and UST term premium compression if rates are to stay low for a longer timeframe because of AI disruption. It will take time to play out but long end is well priced and a decent hedge
By Ed Bradford
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Market Prices Accelerating Fed Rate Cuts Through 2026
Notably, market-implied FOMC cuts through 2026 have been increasing. Through February, Fed Fund futures have priced in another -14bps of cuts for the year - and now the most dovish outlook after CPI since Dec 3rd: https://t.co/NZF2YksrWV
By John Kicklighter
Social•Feb 13, 2026
CPI Cools to 2.4%, Fed Eyes Jobs as Unemployment Falls
US #CPI inflation figures came in line with expectations of a pace cooling. Headline dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% while core eased 2.6% to 2.5%. This does shift priority towards employment in the Fed's dual mandate but the jobless rate...
By John Kicklighter
Social•Feb 13, 2026
CPI Cool, but Data Gaps Mask True Inflation
The CPI data came in cooler than expected, which is always welcome. The headline is obscuring some of the underlying inflation due to the loss in data associated with the government shutdown. The overall index posted its coolest reading since...
By Diane Swonk
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Inflation Stays Low as Money Supply Grows Below Golden Rate
US's CPI inflation rate comes in at 2.4%/yr in January. The US money supply (M2) has been growing BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6.3%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting the Fed's 2%/yr inflation target, since April 2022. THE INFLATION STORY =...
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
SPY and QQQ Bounce After Breaking Yesterday
Tactically $spy pushed below yesterday’s low and reclaimed it for a bounce cash flow move. U guys know what to do with that Same for $qqq
By Scott Redler
Social•Feb 13, 2026
S&P Erases Almost All 2026 Gains Amid AI Hype
Forget Trump's AI HYPE. The S&P Index has now given up nearly all its 2026 gains. https://t.co/GAL0TbU7KG
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Data Hints at First Post‑WWII US Soft Landing
After this week's employment & inflation data it is starting to look like the elusive soft landing may finally happen. Would be the first indisputable US post-WW II soft landing. We've had false hopes before dashed by the underlying economic dynamics &...
By Jason Furman
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Bloomberg's Russia Dollar Rumor Likely Misleading, Says Hanke
Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Russia is considering a re-entry into the US dollar system. Bloomberg's report created quite a stir. RELAX, HANKE'S 95% RULE = 95% OF WHAT YOU READ IN THE PRESS IS EITHER WRONG OR IRRELEVANT. https://t.co/8E7OK7Zm1t
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
After 9-Month Rally, February Pause Is Healthy
The Dow is up 9 months in a row and we are in the banana peel month of February. Yes, they might blame it on AI or something else, just know a little pause here and now is perfectly normal and...
By Ryan Detrick
Social•Feb 13, 2026
January 2026 Defies Post‑COVID Seasonal Inflation Surge
Ever since COVID, the start of the year has seen hot inflation prints, because residual seasonality pushed up inflation in the first quarter. That isn't the case in Jan. '26 and I think that holds a warning for those forecasting...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Core CPI Spikes in January, Steadies at 2.5% Yearly
Core CPI inflation rose during the month of January. But it fell and was relatively muted over longer periods of time--although still some concern the numbers a bit lower due to shutdown-related quirks. Annual rates: 1 month: 3.3% 6 months: 2.5% 12 months: 2.5%
By Jason Furman
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Short‑term Bond Shorts Suffer as 5‑Year Yields Surge
It has been a painful few weeks for the short belly crowd (moi included) as 5s has been kinging up on the curve. Warsh nomination and slow AI disruption have been the main culprits https://t.co/3pqYjTV3QZ
By Ed Bradford
Social•Feb 13, 2026
PMI's Q4 Results Reshape Valuation and Investment Outlook
In subscribers' inboxes this morning Philip Morris International: The Next Phase $PM - Q4 earnings - Combustibles formula - HTU durability - Pouch uncertainty - Valuation + capital returns - My investment decision (newsletter link in bio) https://t.co/gcDQdJkcds
By Brett (Chit Chat Money)
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Tariffs Drove Inflation; Rate Now Irrelevant, CPI Lagging
The scary part is tariffs HAVE increased inflation. The lagging and imputed portions of CPI are the only remaining sources of inflation. We may get a hit from oil some day, but inflation RATE is no longer the problem. And...
By Michael Green
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Inflation Still Stubborn: CPI 2.8%, Core 3.2%
FWIW, since the first "clean" CPI in November (post shutdown), headline CPI inflation is 2.8% annualized and core is 3.2% annualized. Neither suggests much stepdown yet in underlying inflation.
By Greg Ip
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Inflation Misses Again; Labor Market Holds Real Power
🚨 Inflation just missed expectations. Again - Dollar dumping - Gold buying the dip - Stocks pumping on rate cut hopes ⚠️ But don't get comfortable - the labor market is the real story https://t.co/hpBwuiWtK4
By Kathy Lien
Social•Feb 13, 2026
AAP Soars Post‑Earnings as Call Buyer Adjusts
$AAP ripping on earnings as call buyer been adjusting and right for weeks here https://t.co/NDM9mXOd3k
By Joe Kunkle
Social•Feb 13, 2026
No Evidence BLS Data Manipulation; Accusations Hinder Discourse
There is ZERO evidence that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is manipulating the data, not the CPI, not payrolls earlier this week. I am not being naive and people are watching carefully for signs of tampering. Such accusations now are harmful...
By Claudia Sahm
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Banks' Inflation Forecasts Politicized, Yield Soft Surprises
Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.
By Andreas Steno Larsen
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Soft US Inflation Sparks Dollar Slide, Yield Drop, Gold Rise
📉 Softer US Inflation - Markets React 🔻 Softer US inflation numbers 🔻 USD tumbling 🔻 10-year yield falling ⬆️ Gold rising ⬆️ Stocks rallying 📊 CPI Breakdown: • MoM: 0.2% actual vs 0.3% forecast • YoY: 2.5% actual vs 2.5% forecast (2.7% previous)
By Kathy Lien
Social•Feb 13, 2026
The 5ers Introduces Overnight Futures Prop Trading
🚨 @the5erstrading releases details for @The5ersFutures On my panel at @iFXEXPO they said big things were coming… Only futures prop to allow overnight holds Looks like the evolution is here. What do you think - strong proposition or not competitive enough?👇
By Kathy Lien
Social•Feb 13, 2026
January Spike: Core CPI Gains Outpace Typical Inflation
JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others” Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.
By Luke Kawa
Social•Feb 13, 2026
McGough Urges Immediate Buy of GameStop Stock
McGough LIVE on The Call right now saying BUY Gamestop $GME on the open @HedgeyeRetail
By Keith McCullough
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Trump Backs Off as Treasury Market Wobbles, Risk Premium Spikes
One constant in the Trump administration is that - when the Treasury market wobbles - it backs down. That happened on China in Apr. '25 and again on Greenland recently. 10y10y forward yield remains near its highs, even as 10y...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 13, 2026
AI‑linked Firms See Growth, yet Stocks Tumble
The market is now punishing even those companies which are beneficiaries of AI. These businesses are accelerating their revenue growth and their management is explicitly stating that AI is a tailwind, yet their stocks are being crushed. Unreal.
By Puru Saxena
Social•Feb 13, 2026
TOST Q4 Margins Surge, Profit Spikes over 200%
$TOST Q4: Operating income +140% YoY, net income +216% YoY. Margins expanding across the board. Revenue came in at $1.63B, up 22% YoY. Growth moderated vs +25% last quarter, but profitability stepped up meaningfully. Gross profit grew 27% YoY with gross margin...
By Sergey CYW
Social•Feb 13, 2026
SPX Futures Slip, Risk‑Off Bias Ahead
$SPX futures slipping after losing 6902/6870 as traders cut risk and lean short. Upper range looks vulnerable, especially in tech with lots of names bent or broken. If SPY/QQQ lose the 8/21-day, expect more cash + day trading. CPI at...
By Scott Redler
Social•Feb 13, 2026
OPEC+ Faces March 1 Decision on Production Hikes
OIL MARKET: The core group of OPEC+ countries need to decide on March 1 whether to re-start production increases after the Jan-Mar pause. Some members in the group see scope for resuming the monthly hikes, although conversations haven't started yet....
By Javier Blas
Social•Feb 13, 2026
ETFs Rake $250B in 28 Days, EM Overtakes Gold
There's only been 28 trading days this year and ETFs have already pulled in about $250b. More than double any other start to a year. Up until 2020, $250b was what they averaged for a YEAR. That's $9b/day pace, or...
By Eric Balchunas
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Labor Market Stabilizing: Health Care Leads, Construction Rebounds
Yes, most of the jobs last month (and the previous 18 months) have come from health care/social assistance. But if things were so bad would there be 32k in construction? Or 5k added in manufacturing? The labor market isn't great by...
By Ryan Detrick
Social•Feb 13, 2026
US Loses Cheap‑borrower Advantage, Now Pays Debt Premium
The US exorbitant privilege - the ability to issue debt more cheaply than others - ended about a decade ago. We're now issuing debt at a premium, the result of deficits and debt that are out of control. This change...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 13, 2026
CPI Insights on Friday the 13th: Inflation Talk
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)
By Claudia Sahm
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Friday the 13th Rally Masks Monday’s 18% Drop
Stocks are up an annualized 22.6% on Friday the 13th. What really should scare you is a simple case of The Mondays, as stocks are down 18.3% on Monday. #FridayThe13th https://t.co/M74coxbyXF
By Ryan Detrick
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Cargill Shuts Milwaukee Plant, 221 Jobs Lost Amid Herd Slump
"Cargill to Close Milwaukee Beef Facility, Cutting 221 Jobs on Herd Decline" https://t.co/R3enSgd7lj "An industry turnaround isn’t expected soon, as there are few signs of a much-anticipated rebuilding of US herds." 😬
By Scott Lincicome
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Most Private Credit PIK Is Bad Yet Labeled Performing
58% of PIK in private credit is "bad PIK" per Lincoln. Borrower stops paying cash. Lender accepts more debt instead. Everyone marks it at par. This is called "performing."
By JunkBondInvestor
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Dollar Holds Steady Pre‑CPI as China Signals Treasury De‑risking
The Dollar is Firm Ahead of January CPI: The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies ahead of the US January CPI. The week began with news that Chinese officials were encouraging de-risking from US Treasuries. Helped by stronger...
By Marc Chandler
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Investors Unwittingly Swap Value Stocks for Overpriced Picks
The funny thing is that in this value rotation, many investors are unknowingly shifting from value stocks to expensive ones. https://t.co/wliuup8rSq
By Michael Lebowitz
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Trump Admin Eyes Tariff Cuts, Citing Price Hikes, Complexity
BOMBSHELL @FT scoop: Trump admin mulls cutting steel/aluminum tariffs bc these taxes 1) raise US prices; 2) are insanely complicated; 3) had other unintented consequences (incl lobbying). They're admitting, in other words, that gravity exists. Good. https://t.co/o4RkfMWxlF
By Scott Lincicome
Social•Feb 13, 2026
CPI Dip on Friday the 13th Sparks Inflation Uncertainty
CPI falling on Friday the 13th is the ultimate "Freaky Friday" energy. 👻 Is inflation actually cooling to 2.5%, or is the ghost of 2022 about to jump out of the data? I’m navigating the madness and trading the US CPI release...
By Boris Schlossberg
Social•Feb 13, 2026
USD Firms Ahead of CPI as Euro/GBP Options Expire
$USD enjoys a firmer tone ahead of the US CPI. Over 5 bln euro options at $1.1850 expire today. Session low so far is slightly below there. GBP530 mln options at $1.36 expire today. Session low so...
By Marc Chandler
Social•Feb 13, 2026
January Job Loss Smaller, Yields 130k Seasonal Gain
Great question. Drop in hiring happens every January. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (left), we lost 2.6 million jobs in January 2026, but that was a smaller loss than a typical January ... so we got a good print seasonally adjusted...
By Claudia Sahm
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Trump’s $12 B Rare‑Earth Stockpile: Mere Band‑Aid
The Trump administration has announced a plan to create a $12 billion stockpile of rare earths. The goal is to create a buffer against any supply disruptions, but this is just a band-aid. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/daeIxnpldt #rareearths #trump #projectvault https://t.co/p6icljXtjO
By Peter Zeihan
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Rising SPX Put Skew May Push VIX to 30
SPX put skew is really starting to warm up here, while ATM IV remains relatively subdued. If SPX 30) https://t.co/p9qsHp8nHk
By Brent Kochuba
Social•Feb 13, 2026
ECB Staff Push for Tighter Oversight and Regulation
ECB staff comes up with the revolutionary idea of adding even more oversight and regulation
By Brent Johnson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
US Gasoline Inventories Hit Near-Record, Squeezing Margins
U.S. GASOLINE STOCKS are well above normal for the time of year, weighing on refining margins. Inventories totalled 259 million barrels on February 6, the second highest on record for the time of year, exceeded only before the pandemic in...
By John Kemp
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Three Consecutive CPI Misses Signal Rate‑Cut Surge
Last CPI missed expectations 3 months in a row. If it happens again today, rate cut bets explode and the dollar dumps. I'm trading it LIVE at 8AM ET. Don't watch from the sidelines 👇 https://t.co/gAw05zLlQ8
By Boris Schlossberg
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Gemini Miscalculates Google’s Massive Depreciation Drag
Coming up on @thestreetpro More Tales From Nvidia: The Depreciation "Tail and Spike" Will Be Painful to Mag7 Profits (Issue #178!) * As free cash flow is plummeting... I decided to ask the AI about itself. In this case, I asked Google Gemini about...
By Doug Kass
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Global Fund Flows Outpace US, Shifting Investment Balance
US exceptionalism is turning into global rebalancing: BofA’s Michael Hartnett. Stock funds in Europe, Japan and other international developed markets have drawn $104 billion this year vs the $25 billion that’s flowed into US funds: BofA citing EPFR Global. https://t.co/ah9arXM6u9...
By Lisa Abramowicz
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Oil Returns Green, Signaling Bullish Energy Buying Opportunity
OIL: ticks back into the green and remains Bullish TREND @Hedgeye Yesterday was the 1st day where we could start buying some Energy Exposure on red https://t.co/eURgEMfFpO
By Keith McCullough