European Gas Prices Drop 20% After US‑Iran Ceasefire
EUROPEAN GAS PRICES FALL AS MUCH AS 20% ON US-IRAN CEASEFIRE 🚨🚨 About 20% of global LNG traversed Hormuz before the war. But not a single shipment has been exported from the region in over a month https://t.co/zFjTxnnhra
Inflation Surge, Market Risk Unmoved Without Economic Shock
We know we face months of physical disruption to energy and food markets. Inflation will keep getting worse. The question is whether risk assets will care, if the underlying conflict has been resolved. I suspect not...unless the economy deteriorates in...
Half Your Estate May Not Reach Your Spouse
$4 million across two account types. A family in their 40s. They assumed all of it would pass directly to the surviving spouse. Half of that assumption was right.
Romania's Central Bank Pushes Euro Adoption Despite Austerity
Romania’s central bank governor joined calls for the Black Sea nation to revive a goal of adopting the euro as the country seeks to get through a painful period of austerity https://t.co/SjqJU4C4eB https://t.co/wJj4vWehdb
Aim for Perpetual Wealth Growth, Not a Retirement Finish Line
Don‘t treat financial planning like a finish line. Your retirement number? That's thinking small. Aim for wealth that grows EVERY year. Stop settling for 'good enough' and find year-over-year growth.
RBI Holds Rates, Balances Inflation Control with Growth Outlook
The RBI is balancing inflation control with growth support, keeping rates unchanged amid global uncertainties, while projecting solid GDP growth but slightly softer momentum next year.
Military Spending Spurs Defense and Rare Earth Investment Boom
Regal Partners boss tips defence stocks, rare earths as military trillions fuel next investment super cycle https://t.co/6ahsU0eU1G
Start Investing Early: Time Is Your Wealth Engine
If you're in your 20s or 30s and want to become wealthy in your 40s, this is the best advice to put yourself ahead of 99% of people: First and foremost, start saving and investing as early as possible. I can't stress...
Stay Disciplined: Oil Price Surge Will Hit Earnings
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett. Today’s green day shouldn’t alter your portfolio plan one bit. Short-term momentum is still being chopped up by headline volatility. Our core mid-term thesis is intact: elevated oil prices...
OpenAI Stock Faces First Net Selling in Three Years
For the first time in the last 3 years there may be more people trying to sell OpenAI stock than buy Crazy times
Jet Fuel Supply May Need Months to Rebound Post-Hormuz Reopening
IATA chief says jet fuel supply could take months to recover after Hormuz reopening https://t.co/9qcnn6QlNE
NDX Oversold: Growth Stocks Poised for Rally
$NDX severely oversold - on watch for multi-month rally Growth stocks are on the bargain table and the risk/reward is favourable. https://t.co/9W3aDdLK3Q https://t.co/WrgqzQzWfN
800 Oil Tankers Await Hormuz Reopening in Gulf
POV: The 800 oil tankers stuck in the Gulf when the Strait of Hormuz opens up again. https://t.co/jmhUZYYjld
Philippines Faces Energy Crisis Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
Since 2008, Philippines’s economy has put in a strong performance. But, thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, PH is going to take a hit. It has ~50 days of oil reserves left and has declared a national energy emergency. PH should send...
Iran Conflict Sparks 2026 Global Food Price Surge
Iran war impacting farmers in Iowa. This is an example of how food prices will escalate globally in the rest of 2026. This plays out badly for farmers in Iowa making a loss. But it’s an even greater tragedy for...
Stop Using LLCs to Trick Family Into Ownership
stop f’ing creating LLCs and either adding your spouse or your children as part owners and thinking you’re really clever
Consistency Comes From Mastering One Strategy, One Ticker
ICT, ICC, ORB, SMC… the strategy isn’t the issue. Switching between them is. Pick one trading strategy. Stick to one ticker. Learn its price action, liquidity, and confirmations. That’s how you build real consistency.
Hormuz Rerouting Offsets Shortfall, yet 13 MMbpd Remains
Flow through the Strait of Hormuz doesn't need to re-reach pre-war levels to normalize global balances thanks to rerouting (and constant Iran flow) But we still have ~13 MMbpd of production shut-in That's how much more we'll need to push through Hormuz...
Oil Prices Dip After US‑Iran Ceasefire News
Please see the CNBC chart below for the initial oil market reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. #economy #oil #energy #markets
Whale's Timed Oil Short Nets $4M After Ceasefire
🚨THIS CAN'T BE A COINCIDENCE Just hours before the US-Iran ceasefire, a whale started going heavily short on Oil. He built a $30,000,000 Oil short position with 3x leverage. After that, US-Iran ceasefire was announced, and Oil crashed nearly 25%. In a few hours,...
Discipline Over Panic: Stay Invested, Control Emotions
S&P Futures Just Went Very Green Today For Now Here’s the Only Mindset That Wins - Don’t be overly bearish. - Stay invested. - Control your emotions. Markets love to test you with sudden swings, but the winners are the ones who stay disciplined and...
Prediction Markets Could Overtake Biotech Stocks for Phase‑3 Bets
I think that one day soon that prediction markets are going to replace biotech stocks for how investors play key readouts...especially wrt larger companies. For example, if Novartis has a big phase 3, isn't it more interesting and efficient to...
Better Spreads May Push Returns
10’s back in the bowl and spreads getting a tad better can get you sub 6% on 15 easy, it might even happen tomorrow, mid 5% near closer to 4%! https://t.co/Kt4rjgTehd
Watchlist Hits AIXI Again, Targeting $2.4‑$2.7
Well, my watchlist last night NAILED $AIXI 's day 2 move today.. And now, I'm trying to go 2-for-2 on it tomorrow. Getting extended here, so I'll be looking for a simple inside bar setup here for the retest of today's supply...
Chinese Banks' Net Dollar Exposure Surges Dramatically
To be blunt, no one gave this memo to China's banks External dollar assets up, external dollar liabilities down -- net long dollars way up. and we already know from other banking data that the dollar long increased significantly in...
Spot Brent Lags Futures Yet Set to Drop Quickly
It takes an oil tanker between 2 and 4 days to go from the Persian Gulf to India, which is where the most severe shortfall exists. The spot Brent oil price (white) will be slower to fall than the futures...
Relief From VIX Updates After Busy Stock Call Season
In case people forgot how I get down with stock calls on threads May-Sept......and then we had a lil mini run in January & then I had to tell everybody VIX levels for 2 months Thank God I don't have to say...
Copper Valued at 4% of Global Debt, Highly Undervalued
Very intriguing chart. The copper market sits at roughly 4% of global debt — still multiples below prior peaks. A simple way to frame just how undervalued the metal is relative to today’s macro imbalances. Now layer in the structural demand tailwinds. Game on. https://t.co/wv1i1hARmY
Easements Represent a Fractional Property Right, Valued Proportionally
https://t.co/C38z4vpXzp The ownership of land is a bundle of rights. When you donate an easement you are giving away part of the bundle not the whole bundle. So an easement will be worth a percentage of what was paid for the...
Stocks at New Lows Since Discussion, May Drop Further
Also, stocks haven't been lower since this discussion was posted. Looking like that might continue tomorrow. @APompliano
Ceasefire Sparks Asian Rally; Vietnam Gains EM Upgrade
Good morning, I woke up to the best news ever - we got a two-week ceasefire that has lit Asian and risks assets that have been languishing on the closure of the Strait. The Korean won is rallying the hardest, followed...
Greed Wins: S&P Up 31% After VIX Spike
Update: a year ago, the $VIX ended the week at 45.3, one of its highest weekly closes in history. The S&P 500 has rallied 31% since then, adding to the list of times when it paid to be greedy when...
Ex‑US ETFs Surge After Hours Despite 8 Pm Close
Trading ended at 8pm ET, but look at some of these ex-US ETF numbers after-hours... $EWY +8% $EWT +5% $EEM +4.3% $EWJ +6.3% $INDA +4.6% https://t.co/rwvZfBLsrU
Staples Slides to Multi-Month Low Amid Bullish Trend
Staples down nearly 2% today. On a relative basis, fell to new multi-month lows versus the S&P 500. This is consistent with bullish overall behavior. https://t.co/Omn14mWZSK
S&P 500 Rebounds 31% After Historic April Plunge
Update: the S&P 500 has gained 31% since last April when it experienced one of the biggest 2-day declines ever (-10.5%). $SPX https://t.co/KcyPMWIw8p
DroneShield CEO and Chair Exit After Massive Share Dump
After dumping all their shares, the MD and Chair of DroneShield $DRO bail 👀 (Not held) https://t.co/5O468UhyAO
Rare DXY Gap Appears in 23‑Hour Futures Market
Very rare event in the 23-hr futures market where you rarely ever see gaps. Look at the #DXY tonight #forex $UUP $FXE #DXY https://t.co/vOGAm4AaUO
Migration Slowdown Turns Pandemic Housing Boom Into Demand Shock
Many housing markets that saw the biggest deceleration in net domestic migration after the Pandemic Housing Boom still have positive domestic inflows—but the slowdown has still delivered a negative housing demand shock https://t.co/u4W9wWipUU
April Rate Spike Triggered Ten-Month Dow Rally
Almost one year ago right now on April 8th the 10-year nearly hit 5% and futures were crashing. That next day we had 🌮 s and it was the start of a 10-month win streak for the Dow. Something about early April...
Stay Cash-Ready: Capital Shifts to Energy, Compute, Data
Thoughts? We discuss how geopolitical tensions and Trump's deadline are creating major market volatility. We break down what the average person misses: how to watch the dollar, yields, and capital flows to stay ahead of the smart money. We explore...
Russian
Rus, AD, Peso - RS leaders on the weeklies. of course, most all the weeklies look swank w this move (!) https://t.co/WhyaID8PTk
Iran's Oil Pressure Backfires, Trump Gains From Ceasefire
Iran’s strategy all along has been to impose an unbearable economic cost on the US if Trump continued the war via oil and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Now, oil is down ~20% well below $100 a barrel. From...
Oil's Steepest One‑day Drop Since 1991 Gulf War
Excluding Covid, we're looking at the biggest one day plunge in oil since the first Gulf War in 1991 https://t.co/gjT5CUgwkE
US Chicken Prices Outpace Canada, Now Converging Post‑pandemic
I thought (likely incorrectly) that fans of the @FoodProfessor might like some context, so I made a couple of graphs. US chicken prices have increased far faster than Canadian prices in recent years and have basically tracked Canadian prices for...
WTI Crude Plunges 15% in Two Hours, Unprecedented Move
WTI - US benchmark - crude is down around -15% after the news alone. Outside of the negative oil prices from 2020, I can't find a 2-hour bearish move of that magnitude... https://t.co/4h8brCQFAk
DXY Slides Post‑ceasefire, H&S Neckline at 99.50
The $DXY has dropped after the ceasefire news. There is some debate that can be had over whether it is a break with follow through. There is a H&S pattern there on the 4hour chart. Neckline around 99.50 https://t.co/uKdc2tAE8J
Nexstar Omitted Redaction of $150M Bond Request
Lawyer for state AGs says Nexstar failed to redact the $150 million bond request in one of its filings that was not filed under seal
Gold Surges 2.5% Post‑News, Breaks 20‑Day SMA
Gold acting like a 'risk asset' after the news. XAUUSD has rallied ~2.5% after the news and cleared its 20-day SMA: https://t.co/kI2dynsCl3
Falling TDEX Signals Market Complacency Amid Crash Bets
The tail risk index (TDEX) is a measure to understand the cost of protection against a possible crash as it shows the implied volatility of far OTM puts of SPX. Currently is heading lower giving us a confirmation of complacency...
Jefferson Delivers Most Hawkish Fed Speech Since 2023
According to Fedlock, today's speech from Fed Governor Jefferson was his most hawkish since 2023 https://t.co/rgs6erEO5l