Most S&P 500 Firms Beat EPS and Revenue, Grow 15%
84% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise, and 81% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. @factset The blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 15.1% https://t.co/Nsrr48cr7k
Investors Prefer Brent Dates, Futures Marriages Mislead Markets
Investors and media have often dated Brent but married futures (thanks, I'll be here all week). A lucid new @CSIS primer explores this dynamic and why it sends false signals — a hot topic these days. Link in next post....
US Market Not Top‑Heavy; Dollar Still Reserve Power
Two myths that aren't true 1.) The US stock market is top heavy 2.) The US Dollar is losing reserve status Neither are remotely true, yet we hear them all the time https://t.co/ONyZtCOXpe
Republicans Push Bill to Protect Commercial Solar Tax Credits
Republican lawmakers propose bill to preserve commercial solar tax credits #energysky -- via Solar Power World: https://t.co/ndh1a3g5my
Redeem NAV, Buy Discounted Public BDC: Simple Arbitrage
Redeeming a nontraded BDC at NAV and buying the corresponding public one at a discount. Funny WSJ is calling this an "arbitrage."
Cut Costs Ruthlessly to Truly Pay Yourself First
everyone wants to talk about the “pay yourself first” part of profit first, but no one wants to take the steps to implement the ruthless elimination of expenses part that actually allows you to pay yourself first & well. (most...
Will Market Makers Allow QQQ 0DTE Expirations?
Are market makers going to let 0DTE and weekly call options in $QQQ expire at these price levels on a Friday?
Europe’s High Energy Prices Cause Rationing, Not Demand Destruction
Goldman says Europe is seeing “demand destruction” from high energy prices. Not quite — this is rationing, not demand responding to price. That distinction matters more than it sounds. 🧵
Advisors Boost Value by Tailoring Client Tax Withholdings
Our #WeekendReading this week includes a timely trio of articles on tax planning, including one on how advisors can offer value to clients by working with them to adjust their withholdings and receive the tax refund (or payment) they desire...
US Oil Rig Count Drops 3: Real Decline or Relocation?
US oil-directed rig count declined by 3 last week. Is this actual decline or "relocation"?
Discipline Required; Impatient Traders Lose to Smart Money
No discipline = no profits. This setup shows how smart money traps impatient traders using inducement and liquidity. If you don’t wait… you lose. Learn the game. Master the edge. #ForexReels #TradingSetup #SmartMoneyForex #ICTModel #reels
ARKK Stagnates Year‑to‑Date, No 2021 Euphoria
$ARKK is flat on the year. This is not a generalized market euphoria like 2021
Insiders Pile Into PTX Metals as Drills Turn
@inkresearch reports officers at @PTXMetals $PTX.V $PANXF have bought relentlessly since Jan 2024, adding over $870,000 worth of shares, including CEO @GregFerron who has bought over $230K worth of shares. Indeed, it often pays to follow the insiders- especially as...
Renewables Dominate CAISO, Gas Share Drops 60%
To date in 2026, fossil gas has met only 16.7% of demand on the CAISO grid, versus 41.6% in 2023. -->Gas is down 60% since 2023. In 2026, WindWaterSolar has met 51.5% of demand, three times that of gas 23 straight...
US Deficit Ballooning as Fed Expands Balance Sheet
I know there is a lot going on with a lot of headlines (US-Iran, monetary policy, consumer confidence, etc); but worth remembering the ballooning US deficit and efforts to facilitate it (like the Fed balance sheet) still matter: https://t.co/4H1YDnmu7Y
No Training Prepares You for the Market’s Final Third
“There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.” — Paul Tudor Jones
Activist Push Targets Genco; Aim for $26
Macro: activist pressure on Genco; Key: Diana 14.8%, offer $23.50 vs $23.42, FV $26; Risks: poison pill, board resistance; Trade: long Genco toward $26. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China Polysilicon Prices Hit Floor as Output Drops
China polysilicon hits cost floor as producers curb output amid weak demand #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/jGWoOcYhf9
Uber and Robinhood Show Opposite Signals at Same Valuation
Same price. Same ValueTrigger. Opposite signals. $UBER: PERFECT ENTRY. R40 fails at 35. Sleeping giant. $HOOD: PARTIAL ENTRY. R40 at 108 — Hyper-Elite. I sold $UBER at $80. Now my system says buy. I could be wrong about the AV timeline. But the...
Activist Bid Unlikely to Succeed, Expect Stock Rebound
$RPAY will likely get taken out, just not this time. Forager (owns 13%) lobbed a bid at $4.80/share. Spread sitting at 20%. Two more activists on the registry. Together, they control 30%+ of the stock. But management isn't going quietly. Poison pill...
Cease‑fire Stalls Dollar, Hints at Upcoming Decline
Last week’s (week of 4/13) cease fire in the Middle East helped keep the bond market calm and the dollar from surpassing resistance at 100-10. The fact that the dollar’s gains were less than impressive suggests that the next major...
Rethink 60/40: Adopt 60/20/20 with Uncorrelated Assets
With bonds and stocks once again positively correlated (per the chart below), the current/recent market episode served as another reminder to look beyond the 60/40 for that balance between returns and risk. Since 2022 I have been advocating for a 60/20/20...
Chinese Tariffs Spurred Crucial Foreign Tech Investment
Correct Chinese tariffs were instrumental in creating the incentives for European, US and Japanese investment in China back when China needed foreign investment for technology and know how transfer
NDX Shows Golden Cross Long-Term, MACD Death Cross Short-Term—Cautious Optimism
The last time I said $NDX deathcross, the market pulled back almost 9%. Today I see a build up golden cross. (Long term) Also a deathX on MACD (short term) This is the biggest dielema crossroad for a while. Enjoy the ride but stay...
Nvidia Call Volume Surpasses 4M, Highest Since November
Nvidia daily call volumes crack 4 million for the first time since November, and still a couple hours and change to go. https://t.co/WDY9ZrVRbd $NVDA https://t.co/P63hpn9lBB
USDJPY: The Overlooked Market Driver You Need
I think USDJPY is one of the most important variables in the market right now that is flying under the radar. I discuss it in length here👇
Iran Keeps Exporting One Million Barrels Daily Despite Blockade
despite the us blockade, iran remains on track to export about one million barrels of oil per day in april. half of what they exported in march. but still a lot of money.
Mean Reversion Drives New Positions in IBM, SNPS
Agreed. There is always a mean reversion but for a reason. Added to $IBM $SNPS
Dealers Guard SPX Floor Amid Summer Downside Hedge
What are Vegas odds for gap down Monday? (Likely gets bought in a week, but still.) Dealers are defending $SPX $7100 floor past six days, where $SMH has risen 42% in 19 days - all the while institutions are hedging for...
Hidden Forces Eroding the Foundation of Dollar Dominance
Interesting thread that makes the case for what @sobel_mark calls the "termites feasting away at the foundation of dollar dominance". Should give us pause... (1/2)
Bessent's Swap Lines Risk Accelerating US Deindustrialization
Unless Bessent also extends “permanent swap lines” to the US defense industrial base, this would only accelerate the de-industrialization of the US. Why invest in manufacturing in the US while Bessent is giving cheap USDs to support lower cost competitors around...
Bull Market Thrives Even as Consumer Sentiment Hits Historic Low
THE COMPLETELY RATIONAL, CRAZY BULL MARKET In today's newsletter, I wrote about how it makes total sense for the stock market to be surging to all time highs almost every day, even as consumer sentiment plunges to its lowest level in...
Tooze Delivers Concise History of the Exchange Stabilization Fund
Tooze is on a roll -- great instant history of the Exchange Stabilization Fund 1/2
Mid-Size Buildings Dominate Studio Unit Share Since 2008
Here’s an interesting fact about apartment building SIZE For buildings built since 2008 ... mid-size buildings (50-150 units) have a great share of Studios, compared to smaller or larger buildings. https://t.co/QC9eXAaoRH
Ultra‑rich Wealth Surge Fuels Market Resilience, Analysts Miss
WSJ: "There are about 430,000 U.S. households worth $30 million or more, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by Zidar. Within that, there are about 74,000 worth $100 million or more. Over the past few decades, the growth...
Charter CEO Eyes Cable Acquisitions as Shares Tumble
'We'd like to acquire more cable assets if can be done at an appropriate price [and] conditions,' said Charter CEO Chris Winfrey. Meanwhile, Charter shares are slumping amid disappointing Q1 results. @Light_Reading https://t.co/Yr519C4o2H
Leveraged ETF Rebalancing Drives $14B Inelastic Close Buying
Another stall day. At current prices 14BN of inelastic buying must occur on the close. This is heavily front run through the balance of the day. That flow is heavily tilted to NDX and Semis. It...
Bessent's Treasury Launches Politically Driven Financial Packages
Bessent's Treasury is pioneering a new kind of highly political financial agency. First there was the financial package for Millei in September 2025, now for UAE and other allies. https://t.co/DWcVQjLMhx
Sticking with Four Secular Growth Sectors for Long-Term Gains
In mid-March, I discussed the 4 secular growth sectors that I would focus on for the long-term: Aerospace and Defense, Semiconductors, Data Center related, and Biotech. They continue to be my area of focus from a growth perspective. Many stocks...
FOMC Slashes Rates 75 Bps to 3.5%
January 22, 2008. The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent...Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice...
Client Exits Led to 24% Outperformance and 62% AUM Growth
last april, during the tariff tantrum, equity + trend fell -25% vs S&P 500's -16%. a client fully redeemed. to paraphrase, "I feel bad for you guys; you'll be out of business soon." since then, stocks + trend beat the S&P...
Six Stocks Hit Lifetime Highs on Strong Momentum
𝗔𝗟𝗟-𝗧𝗜𝗠𝗘 𝗛𝗜𝗚𝗛 𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗢𝗨𝗧 𝗔𝗟𝗘𝗥𝗧 🚨 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝟲 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗹𝗶𝗳𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘀, 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗺 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁: 💥 𝗛𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗶 𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 💥 𝗦𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗲𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 💥 𝗔𝘁𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗮 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹𝘀 💥 𝗧𝗗 𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗦𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺𝘀 💥 𝗔𝗨 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸
Intel’s Surge Hits 26‑Year High, Yet Overpriced
Intel (INTC) just broke its dot-com peak for the first time in 26 years. $81.86, +22.58% today, +100% YTD, +224% in a year. The Street is writing "we were wrong" notes this morning. Here's the honest read on what happened last...
Gold Bull Market Persists, Targeting $6‑7K per Ounce
My view in @KitcoNewsNOW on the STRENGTH OF GOLD: "The secular gold bull market is intact... I think the bull will peak out around $6,000 to $7,000 an ounce." STAY LONG GOLD or GET LONG. https://t.co/UzLL4ZBLh3
SPY Gamma Exposure Peaks at 715, Watch for Rejection
Gamma exposure update for $SPY: $715 has been lit up with positive exposure all week. We're now approaching that strike, be cautious of chop/rejections as we near it. I've got support at $711, positive exposure above and below spot.
Market Divided: Utilities Up, Treasuries Split, S&P Near
Utilities outperforming. Treasuries diverging. S&P sitting just below its 200-day moving average. The intermarket signals split 2-2 for first time since February. What does a market divided mean for your portfolio? https://t.co/bTNJ1cQFiS
EOSE Jumps 15% Amid Market Squeeze
Talked about this one today on The Morning Show The squeeze is on! $EOSE +15% https://t.co/yB1fuXjbke
Eurozone Prices Surge Amid Second Month of Iran War
Euro zone price spike seen surging higher in 2nd nonth of Iran war https://t.co/Zs6xbpsYFw via @CraigStirling https://t.co/ATtxy6wpPJ
MXL's Weekly Chart Explodes After Years of Neglect
The weekly chart for $MXL is insane Years of neglect and now look at the volume. And @Deepvue AI shows recent catalysts https://t.co/q9l9wjTGv7
Lilly Slides as FDA Plans Psychedelic Voucher Program
Lilly tumbles on Foundayo’s shaky week; FDA to issue vouchers for psychedelics https://t.co/kWvYtFeif0 $LLY - 4% $NVO + 6% $REGN $AMGN $BBOT #biotech