Senea Rebounds After Safe‑name Selloff; Added at $135‑$140
Luke Wolgram🔥 $SENEA with some great price action. Last week's selloff appears to have been a rotation out of 'safe' names like Senea and into risk-on speculative names. I waited for it to bottom out, added shares at $135 last week, and again at $140 today.
BE Rebounds to Opening High, Fourth Consolidation Day
$BE back to opening high. 4th day of consolidation since the gap to 200. https://t.co/u7Xa3wwZk0
Netflix Posts Record Q1 Revenue and Soaring Profit
Netflix revenues hit a record $12.3 billion in Q1, up 16% YoY. Net income hit a record $5.3 billion, up 83% YoY. Operating margins moved up to 32.3% from 31.7% a year ago. $NFLX https://t.co/L4wWI2gmjO
Implied Equity Exposure Poised to Surge as Volatility Drops
Vol-control implied equity exposure sits near $150B. Most of 2024 and 2025 it ran $225-$300B. There is dry powder waiting to eat. We should start to see this trigger when 30-day RV falling below 90-day RV.
Real Estate Often Outvalues the Underlying Small Business
The value of the land > the business itself I spoke with a family office that owns a portfolio of small businesses. One interesting point the son of the owner made was that, in several cases, the underlying real estate is...
Earnings Week at Market Peaks: Rally Test or Bear Trigger
$TSLA reports earnings April 22. That same week: 94 $SPY component companies report. The busiest earnings week of the year hits when markets are at ALL-TIME HIGHS. Earnings either validate this rally — or give every reluctant bear a reason to act. https://t.co/bWW5e4qLEy
Warsh Hearing Could Shift USTs Amid Iran War
Iran war continues to dominate price action in USTs but Warsh's confirmation hearing tomorrow will likely interrupt the current narrative for a spell especially if he sticks to his recent rate dovishness and balance sheet hawkishness.
Tuesday's Triple Threat Sparks Market Volatility
This is the market right now 🤯 Ceasefire expires Tuesday. US-Iran meeting Tuesday. US Retail Sales Tuesday. Expect volatility $SPX $SPY $QQQ $DJI $CL $USO $XLE $GC $GLD $DXY
Chasing Tesla Buyers Stopped Out Before Earnings
chasers punished in $TSLA this morning. --buyers at R2 this morning just stopped out below S2. --earnings on wednesday after the close. https://t.co/4IEY6Dyx2r
Hormuz Strait Unreliable, Threatening 20% Global LNG Supply
IEA'S BIROL: HORMUZ STRAIT LOST ITS STATUS AS RELIABLE About 20% of global LNG supply is locked behind the strait
US‑China Stockpiling Fuels Copper Price Surge
The entire copper industry has just returned from last week’s leading copper conference in Chile (CESCO), with participants, including the world’s largest copper traders, even more bullish that all-time-high copper prices could be tested over the coming weeks. It’s become...
PSIL Surges as Trump Fast‑tracks Psychedelic Research
Far Out Man: The Psychedelics ETF $PSIL has destroyed its daily volume record in first 30min of trading.. Trump just signed ex order expediting research/access to psyche drugs to cure depression. The sector has been in dog house, waiting for...
Unending Iran War Could Stall Global Growth to Zero
My take on what would happen to world economic growth if the Iran war continues unabated @MarioNawfal: "My guess is that world growth would sink from the IMF projected 3.1%/yr to pretty close to zero, maybe even negative." FOREVER WARS = FROM...
Adobe's AI Doubts Limit Bounce; 250‑260 Range Possible
The market is skeptical of Adobe's ability to navigate the AI Apocalypse so it failed to bounce last week with other software names. --today's WSJ caused a pre-market pop that was faded --it $ADBE begins to consolidate above 250 there is some...
Vanguard's NY Municipal Fund Offers Triple Tax-Free Returns
About a year ago, Vanguard launched a municipal bond fund for New York residents ticker $MUNY that is triple tax free for New York residents with a low expense ratio. Seems pretty good.
Wall Street Remains Calm Amid Iran Naval Blockade
The U.S. Navy is actively blockading Iranian ports. The $VIX is at 17.21. The $SPY is at all-time highs. Either Wall Street has priced in the geopolitical risk perfectly — or this is the most complacent market since 2007. History rarely rewards this level...
Inside Vanguard's Massive Index Fund: Structure, AI, Governance
What does it take to run one of the world's largest index fund operations? Rodney Comegys of Vanguard breaks down the philosophy and mechanics — ownership structure, equity concentration, governance, private assets, and AI. https://t.co/KDr1BxQ58M With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @CanoeAI, and Ridgeline.
Ex‑Glencore Executives Flock to New Cobalt Venture.
Not in the stock right now but cobalt stans should be paying attention to how many former Glencore execs are getting into this company including those with extensive cobalt + DRC experience They see the opportunity
Spotting Fake Sunday Gap-Down Within 20 Minutes
Another fake Sunday night Gap-Down. We called it 20 mins after Asia open. Even the RSI pattern fits.
GameStop Rally Is Hype, Fundamentals Still Weakening
GameStop's recent surge is just social media hype, not 2021 again, says analysis. The bear case argues its core business is still in decline. A selling opportunity? 🎮 Stocks
Invest in Untapped Operating Leverage for Hidden Profit Explosions
My favorite type of investment? Businesses with embedded operating leverage that hasn't fully flexed yet. The market is notoriously bad at pricing long-term optionality. It sees the red line and the green line moving together today, but misses the "breakout"...
China Weaponizes Rare‑earth Magnets Amid US‑Japan Tensions
China. Reduces rare earth magnet exports to US and Japan. Why? A topic for Xi-Trump meeting. Counter oil supply drop from Iran? What else may China do?
Egypt, India Keep Floating Currencies to Shield Against Oil Shock
Egypt and India stand alone among the major EMs in allowing their currencies to adjust freely to the spike in oil prices. This will stand them in good stead. A freely-floating exchange rate helps protect you from bad shocks like...
Pay Off Credit Card Debt Before Stock Investing
Don't invest your money in the stock market if you have credit card debt Unless to get the full employer match for your 401k (assuming good % matching and vesting rules) Get rid of that 25% interest asap Don’t work backwards
Silver's Surge Over Gold Signals Looming Macro Shift
Silver at $80.78 as of April 17 — up 6.5% on the week, outpacing gold. Silver is simultaneously a monetary metal and an industrial metal. When it beats gold by this margin, the market is pricing both safe-haven demand and real...
Silver Outpaces Gold, Hinting At
$SLV surged 6.5% in a week to $80.78 — outperforming $GLD. Silver has BOTH the monetary metal bid AND industrial demand tailwinds. When silver outperforms gold this aggressively, it's usually telling you something about where the economy is heading. https://t.co/SPn2igYPIv
Latin America Markets Surge on Expected Iran Peace, High Oil
At last week's IMF/WB meetings, markets were as bullish as I can remember on Latin America. They're trading an end to the war with Iran and oil prices staying elevated for a while, all of which benefits the region's oil...
S&P 500 Weekly RSI Hits Overbought
we're starting the week with the S&P 500 $SPX RSI(5) overbought on the weekly chart for the first time in six months... https://t.co/sr1M1wKskc
Educating Seniors to Safeguard Their Money and Taxes
I want to help protect seniors/their money via education and in person workshops. I have personal experience w/my beautiful dad, am a #CPA in TX/FL and have a teachers heart. Manage #financial risk. Add #tax tips. What are others doing?...
How Corporations Pay Zero Taxes—And You Can Too
~88 profitable U.S. corporations paid $0 in federal corporate income tax while you paid payroll tax, income tax, property tax, sales tax, capital gain tax, etc to fund activities you don’t even support. The big guys know how to...
Investing at Market Peaks Beats Timing Any Other Day
Are you ready to have your mind blown? Since 1989, money invested when the market is at all-time highs has actually outperformed money invested on any given day. 🤯🤯🤯 https://t.co/qDhqxMLUZg
Iran Conflict Threatens Airline Jet Fuel Supply
Re-up! #Airlines & the Iran conflict - a perfect storm as carriers face jet fuel squeeze? #avgeek #airlines #StraitofHormuz #Iran #oil https://t.co/VocDTjCLlD https://t.co/wd3hlohdlT
Watching SPY: Will Friday’s Low Hold or Slip?
$spy follow up as we see if Friday’s low holds or do we retrace a bit lower https://t.co/JwJ3owG2KM
Funds Dump Brent as US‑Iran Talks Spur Price Dip Expectations
Brent sees fund sales as diplomacy intensifies Investors realised profits from bullish long positions and started to accumulate bearish short ones last week, anticipating a further fall in Brent prices as the United States and Iran conducted face-to-face talks to find...
Geopolitical Tension Holds Market; One Headline Could Flip It
Monday setup: - Xi calls MBS overnight to open Hormuz (China is cracking) - Iran "maybe" talks round 2 in Islamabad - IRGC won't give up fissile material (deal killer) - SPX -50bp, NQ -40bp into the open One headline flips this market either way....
Avis Soars 300% on Float Squeeze and Geopolitics
Anyone following the Avis situation? Pentwater 22% + TRS synthetics + SRS 49% = >100% of float owned. 54% of float short. Stock doubles on that alone: ~$100 to $200. Then Iran hits: > Domestic travel substitution -> more rental days > Crude up...
Lululemon Downgraded Amid High Valuation, Slowing Growth
Lululemon's products are still great, but a new analysis warns the stock's risks are now greater. Citing high valuation, tough competition, and slowing growth, the rating gets a downgrade. investing
China's Structural Advantage, Not Tactics, Drives US‑China Trade
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐤𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧'𝐭 𝐚 𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐫𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. In my latest piece for @FortuneMagazine , I argue that many CEOs and boards are asking the wrong question about the U.S.-China relationship. They are waiting for a "breakthrough" at...
Japan's 1960s “Excess Competition” Crippled Profitability and Stability
For those who are interested in Japan's recent economic history, and what that may tell us about other economies that copied its growth model, it is worth noting that in Japan, the term “excess competition” (過当競争, katō kyōsō) emerged, mostly...
Holding Stocks Wins, But Discipline Remains Tough
In hindsight, buying and holding stocks was the right choice this past year. That's easier said than done. This is a nice personal essay from financial newsletter ace @SamRo on how hard that is even for someone like him. https://t.co/ondBWl2hlM
Small‑Cap Liquidations Deliver Big, Stable Moves
Excelsior Cap $ECL is a good example of why I like small and micro-cap liquidations stocks. The good ones look like this. Big step-change moves and otherwise stable. https://t.co/CrSEoHnShP
Weekly Family Office Digest: AI, Wealth Trends, Risks
The best family office content from the last week is wrapped up in today's email, including: ∘ What does AI already know about your family office? ∘ The world’s richest real estate baron ∘ The $410M casino billionaire inheritance battle ∘ Managing Tom Cruise,...
Success Comes From Trading When Others Stay Silent
Howard Marks built one of the greatest track records in investing history. Not because he was smarter. Because he was lonelier. When Oaktree bought distressed debt nobody wanted, it wasn't genius, it was distance. From the crowd. From the narrative. From the...
92% of S&P 500 Firms Beat Forecasts, Median +5%
“Of the 49 companies that have reported so far (10% of the S&P 500): Overall, 92% are beating estimates, and those that “beat” are beating by a median of 5%.” - @fundstrat
China's Q1 Grain Imports Rebound, yet Lag Recent Highs
🇨🇳China’s Q1 2026 grain imports rebounded sharply on the year but remained below the bigger volumes seen in recent years. Still, it's a supportive trend for exporters. However, soybean and pork imports weren't quite as robust as in Q1 2025. https://t.co/NEI8MRwGDR
Oil's 10% Crash Signals Deflationary Shock
$CL_F crashed 10% in a single session — April 17. WTI fell to $84, down from a $110 peak. One day. 10%. Oil. That's not noise — that's a deflationary impulse hitting the macro backdrop at full speed. https://t.co/ju4e7ZBacD
Netflix Accelerates Its Evolution Amid Market Shifts
Today's TSOH Investment Research Netflix: The Pace of Change $NFLX Thank you to @FrancoOlivera for his feedback https://t.co/pCr6qiYKfI https://t.co/5kuiihQ5I9
SPX Eyes 7074 Resistance After 13-Day Rally
$SPX moving from 6316 to 7147. Thirteen straight up days can complicate things as some sell longs or start hedging, especially with talks looking a bit less perfect. Now we’ll see if 7074 holds or if we re-test 7002. https://t.co/ggxPg9KKER
Few Bearish Signals, Yet Humility Guides Fractal Trading
In today's Early Look: "#Quad2 Breakout, It Was" With only 5 of the 37 Risk Range™ Signals that I fractally measure, map, and post in our RISK RANGE product every day signaling Bearish TREND @Hedgeye (USD and VIX are 2...
Closed Strait Triggers Global Supply Shortages and Food Price Surge
The economic impact of a closed Strait increases. Time delay. Supply shortages. Prices. Helium? Sulfur? Fertilizer—as planting season begins? Then it will be food scarcity and prices. More.