CNBC Crowd Clings to Losing Positions Amid Crash
CHART OF THE DAY: CNBC Crowd Holding The Bag7 Into The Crash https://t.co/LRATvgaFh8 via @hedgeye
SPX Poised to Rebound to 6500 8‑MA
$SPX working to highs here, noted late yesterday to expect a news-headline pop back to 8-MA near 6500 as we tend to revert to that level from oversold https://t.co/Fyzf77Rc68
LLM Review Uncovers Hidden Tax Credits, Like Free Money
Cannot underline this enough: send your human-prepared return to an LLM for review prior to signing it. The closest thing to free money. It isn't even necessarily on the complex or hard bits, either. The first thing it surfaced me was...
Double $1k in UTMA, Harvest Gains Tax-Free
Open a UTMA account for your child. Contribute $1k. Once that $1k turns into $2k, do tax gain harvesting (sell, rebuy). Kiddie tax will not apply since the gain is $1k (less than child's standard deduction) Good way to increase cost basis...
Consistency and Growth Outperform Chasing High Yields
Dividend ETFs look similar… but they’re built very differently. • VYM → broad, steady income • SCHD → quality + dividend growth • SPYD → higher yield (more risk) • DGRO → consistent dividend growers Chasing the highest yield isn’t always the smartest move. Growth +...
VIX >30 Predicts Strong Yearly Market Gains
The $VIX closed above 30 in each of the last 2 trading days. Historically, this level of fear in the Volatility Index has been associated with above-average future stock market returns (+21% over the next year on average). But the...
Initiating Long Bond Shorts to Bet on Steepening
I am also beginning to leg into long bond shorts against a portion of this position to play for a steepener.
Home Prices Slow, Sellers Outnumber Buyers, Prices Set to Drop
US home prices increased 0.9% over the last year, the slowest growth rate since June 2023. There are currently a record 46% more sellers than buyers nationally. Absent manipulation from the Federal Government/Reserve, prices will come down and homes will...
EU Warns Prolonged Energy Market Disruption From Iran War
EU Tells Members to Prepare for 'Prolonged Disruption' to Energy Markets From Iran War https://t.co/oPLV3B8xsa
Foreign Central Banks Cut UST Holdings to 2012 Low
"Foreign central bank holdings of USTs at NY Fed fall to lowest level since 2012 in wake of Iran war" Via @seaniechaos https://t.co/VIiwJqrZAY
AQR Launches Delphi Fusion: Stacked Global Equity UCITS
People often ask when we're going to bring Return Stacked® funds to Europe. Unfortunately, no time soon. But others are starting to bring interesting product to that market. AQR just launched the Delphi Fusion Global UCITS Fund — global equities stacked with their...
Ukraine's Drone Attacks Slash Russian Oil Exports
This is something to keep an eye on. Ukraine has been damaging Russian oil export capacity, via drone. The country's seaborne shipments last week were the lowest since 2022, but unclear if it's the start of a longer trend. ...
Regional Banks Face Looming CRE Loss Wave
$1.5 trillion in CRE loans mature through 2026-2027. Office delinquency: 12.34%. All-time high. "Extend and pretend" is over. Banks are shifting to "extend and resolve." Resolve means someone takes the loss. That someone is regional banks — the ones with the highest CRE...
Buy EUR/JPY Pullback, Target 183.86
Macro: EUR/JPY rebounds; USDX falls. Factors: hourly convergence, ATR 102 vs 90d 115 pips. Risk: USDX reversal, JOLTS. Insight: Buy the small pullback; target 183.86. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
SPY Rebounds, Testing 641‑643 Resistance Level
$spy up again this morning making it a tricky set up. Seems like it might stick a bit better than yesterday. $641-$643 is resistance#1 area https://t.co/0AaWtvQofQ
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 83%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 83% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA’S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/AUN4GLdvgF
Iran War Triggers Structural Oil Price Upgrade
I don't see any reasonable scenario in which the oil market exits the Iran War in a healthier, more secure condition than where things stood before the war. It's a structural go-forward upgrade to oil pricing, at this stage it's just...
Executing Bull Bias with PLTR, NVDA, MU Longs
First part of the bull bias yesterday in @IUTraders and scan complete and risked down some just to be safe but ideally we get phase two in an hour or two. Basket was $PLTR $NVDA $NBIS $MU long side $VXX...
S&P 500 Outperforms Small Caps, Defying Historical Norms
Small caps returned 11% over the past decade. Their historical average? 12%. The S&P 500 returned 15.3% — nearly 50% above normal. Which one's the anomaly? #Stocks #Equities #SmallCaps @rockwealthUK https://t.co/poKgLEYnvn
Live NY Open Scalping Session: Ride the Market Rollercoaster
Market continues to be a Rollercoaster hand made for scalping all day join us to see how we do it 9am Live Trading NY Open https://t.co/K8PKB2mO53 via @YouTube
Oil May Rise Even If War Ends, TACO Unbearish
While a unilateral TACO is “bearish” relative to a boots on the ground regional blow-up scenario, it’s not bearish in absolute terms—and very likely still justifies crude prices higher than their current sanguine levels. So, yes, I think the war can...
Brutal Correction Creates Opportunities for Patient Traders
📺 THIS MARKET IS BRUTAL… BUT OPPORTUNITY IS COMING We are in a frustrating, choppy market correction—the worst quarter since 2022. However, such environments often create significant opportunities for disciplined traders who remain patient. Big picture, the market is ~10% off highs,...
Record Margin Debt Signals Looming Market Crash
Margin debt: $1.279 trillion. Record high. 7th consecutive record. The problem isn't just the level. Debt grew 482% in real terms. The market grew 327%. Leverage outpaced the asset it was financing. That gap doesn't compress gradually. It compresses violently — through forced...
USDA Planting Data May Reveal Fertilizer‑price Driven Acreage Shift
🇺🇸All trade estimates ahead of USDA's planting intentions & quarterly stocks due on Tuesday at 11am CDT, where U.S. corn & soybean plantings will take the spotlight. Will USDA's survey capture any potential acreage shift owing to the war-driven surge...
RIAs Gain Scale Tax‑Free via 721 LP Contributions
This is an interesting idea for RIAs who DO NOT want to join a PE firm, but still want to compete at scale. Tl;dr. Contribute to an LP via 721 (tax free contributions), and essentially diversify with a bunch of...
Build a Mini Hedge Fund Using Python Algorithms
How to create your own "mini" hedge fund with algorithmic trading and Python A thread 🧵
SPYM Surges to #1 YTD Flow Amid Odd Rebalancing
My note on $SPYM last week was timely, it's now the #1 YTD in flows. It's been ages since anything other than the Mighty VOO was in top spot. Some weird rebal flows going on so may be short-lived but...
Buy CZR, Short BOOT: Hedgeye Team’s Top Picks
Lots of alpha coming out of the team this morning with the Buy $CZR from Jenks @HedgeyeGLL and Short $BOOT barn from McGough @HedgeyeRetail
Investors Rush Short‑Term Treasuries Amid Equity‑Gold Decline
With equities down and gold in the gutter (zero corr can be a nasty surprise), investors are PILING into treasury ETFs, which took in about $30b in March, over double recent monthly avg, namely ultra short like $SGOV and $BIL...
Euro, Pound Near Key Levels as Billions in Options Expire
$Eur approaching $1.15. Between today and tomorrow around 6.5 bln euros of options expire. $GBP approaching $1.3250 where GBP650 mln options expire today. https://t.co/bSx6eAhEKQ
Oversold Markets Call for Tactical Trades, Steady Investing
$SPX is ~10% off highs and QQQ ~11%, with many names 40–60% off, so it feels like we’re close to an oversold bounce but still not seeing traction. If you trade for a living, be tactical and pick spots carefully;...
China Extends Fuel Export Ban, Offers Minimal Relief
China has extended its fuel export ban for another month to April. There is now talk of letting a small amount of fuel out to countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the Maldives. But the shipments would be only ~5%-10%...
South Africa's Fuel Prices Rise Tomorrow, Including R3 Levy Cut
Here are the new amounts that fuel will rise by in South Africa, tomorrow. These new amounts already include the temporary R3 deductions in the fuel levy, that was announced by the National Treasury earlier today.
Stay Calm: Market Peaks, Not Crash Yet
$815K portfolio. 18 months of gains. Market's at all-time highs. News cycle getting darker. Client calls me: "Should I sell everything before the crash?"
Most Major US Metro Home Prices Still Falling
75% of the largest U.S. metro areas saw real home price declines over the past year. Rates have normalized, but prices haven't...yet. My latest on whether U.S. housing is starting to crash: https://t.co/HsPGtyscV6
Q1 Market Decline Signals Consumer Pain, Growth Uncertainty
Q1 final scorecard: SPY -3.4%. QQQ -4.2%. DIA -3.1%. Energy +20%. Gold +12%. Brent +47%. Worst Q1 since 2022. Every single winner in Q1 directly hurts the consumer. Every single loser represents growth, innovation, and the future. This isn't just a bad quarter. It's the...
Gap‑ups Unreliable; Use VWAP on SPY 5‑min
Nearly impossible to trust this gap. Gap-ups getting sold into have been batting 1.000 lately. And we all know what the Iranians said about gap-ups. So what do you do? • Look for shorts? Maybe. • Slap a VWAP on the $SPY 5-min and watch...
Berkshire B Shares Surge Despite Shareholder Cash‑Raise Blunder
Shareholders in Berkshire Hathaway have been punished after they decided to raise a ton of cash in the middle of a raging bull market. But just yesterday, Berkshire B Shares hit new multi-month highs relative to S&Ps, as Financials try...
Picking a Few Uptrend Stocks Isn’t that Simple
“Just buy the 30 out of 5,000 stocks that are in uptrends….its easy” FYI - you can just make shit up on this app and pretend everything is easy. https://t.co/JxSJEzo4im
EU-India FTA Boosts Indian Aluminium, CBAM Still Caps Gains
The EU-India FTA may help Indian aluminium exports, but CBAM still limits the real upside. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/eu-india-fta-could-improve-indian.html
Food Distributors Hike Fees as Diesel Prices Surge
"Fresh Food Distributors Add Surcharges as Fuel Costs Rise: Delivering salmon, fruits and other perishable foods has become more expensive as the war with Iran pushes up diesel prices." https://t.co/6WK0ANZ5FM https://t.co/alEhgd4FKd
Diesel Prices, Not Gas, Threaten US Inflation Surge
The bigger concern for the US economy isn't gas prices, but diesel prices, as @amoshochstein tells @annmarie just now. They're at the highest since 2022 and bumping up against those highs, at $5.45 a gallon. That's the price that'll pressure...
Market Breadth Holds Despite Universal Index Red Days
Every index closed red yesterday — but breadth didn't make a new low. Stocks above the 20-day, McClellan Oscillator, and 40-day all held. Divergence worth watching. https://t.co/qZQl08IwnK
TRACE Reveals Massive Negative Gamma, Expect Intraday Volatility
This is TRACE, the most accurate SPX GEX map you can get. It also updates faster than any GEX map 😏. Remember: +50% of SPX flow is 0DTE and so if you are tracking gamma, you need to see that...
Gold's Oversold Dip Offers Prime Buying Opportunity
Four consecutive weeks of outflows from gold ETFs. This will go down as one of the best opportunities to add to gold at historically oversold levels in my view. Bottoms are always a process, and I do believe we are in the...
Equity and Energy Futures Rise Simultaneously
Equity futures are up, but so is energy. Maybe we can have it both ways. 😀 https://t.co/i3bGq3ZY9M
Stocks vs Commodities Divergence May Finally Revert
What Stops Stocks vs. Commodities Reversion? An extremely extended US stock market vs. commodities and GDP may have found a worthy spark for reversion, with post-inflation deflation leanings. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/KWrklODsPM {BI COMD} |#commodities #stockmarket #crudeoil @BBGIntelligence
Fuel Hits $4+ per Gallon, Spurring Spending Slowdown
The AAA average fuel price is officially over $4 a gallon for the first time since mid-August 2022. Prices are up over $1 since the war in Iran began. Americans are paying $50 a month more in fuel costs. This is a...
Bellwether Index Hits Year‑to‑Date Lows, Leading Stocks Falter
The Bellwether stock index just broke to year-to-date lows. The market’s most important stocks are starting to roll over. https://t.co/HYKpegS8Sa
Trump Unaware Gas Prices Have Surpassed $4 Per Gallon
I wonder if Trump will ever find out that gas prices crossed $4.00 a gallon https://t.co/BZjCIh8l7U