Subtract 300k Bpd From 2026 Oil Demand Forecasts
⭕️For now, whatever your estimates of global oil consumption growth for 2026, subtract about 300 kb/d from it. This number will change as we move forward.
Oil Surge and Strong USD Favor Energy Exporters
Macro: Tadawul -0.13%; financials, real estate & retail lag. Oil jump (Brent $105) and firmer USD drive divergence. Risk: oil volatility, FX swings. Trade: buy energy exporters. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Dollar Weakness Paused; Brazil Set to Surge Post‑war
The Dollar downtrend has now been meaningfully disrupted. But that doesn't mean it's over. As soon as this war ends - and it must because of the midterms - Dollar weakness will reassert itself. EM commodity exporters like Brazil will...
Mag 7 ETF Lags While Russell 1000 Outperforms
YTD total returns: Mag 7 ETF $MAGS -15.9% Russell 1000 equal weight $EQAL +3.4% International stocks $VEU -0.9% @stockcharts https://t.co/smi2VwzbiW
Yield Spread Peaks, Prompting Duration Risk Exit
3m10y yield spread 71bps... highest since July 2022... time to step out on the duration-risk curve? $AGG https://t.co/ozSwbxzLA4
Small‑Cap Energy Poised for Massive Breakout—Will It Hold?
Meanwhile, Small-cap Energy is working on a massive breakout. Do you think they can stick it? https://t.co/jRGbNvDP1j
Stagflation and War Trigger Biggest 60/40 Loss Since 2022
Stagflationary winds and the biggest monthly loss for the classic 60/40 investment portfolio since 2022, the global economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War are tangible. This week’s data deluge will help us assess how much resilience remains in...
Turkey Alone Sells Gold Amid Fragile Currency Peg
A recurrent theme since war began is that central banks are selling gold. That's mostly not true, but there is one central bank that did. Turkey's gold holdings have fallen 50 tons in recent weeks. But Turkey is an outlier...
Immigrants Expand Demand, Creating New Jobs
Immigrants weren’t just filling existing jobs; they were helping create them. That’s Econ 101: jobs are not a fixed pie. More people means more customers, more demand, more businesses expanding, and yes, more hiring. https://t.co/TuC32PJmUk
Recession Odds Near 50% as Soft Landing Remains Priced
Goldman 30%. JPM 35%. Zandi 49%. Recession odds are climbing fast. When does consensus cross 50%? The market is still priced for a soft landing. Economists are no longer calling it one. $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/XqeBtrupla
War‑Driven Energy Shock Pushes Importers Toward Alternatives
As the outbreak of a regional war disrupts global energy markets for the second time in four years, oil & gas importing countries will be motivated to find alternatives; coal, nuclear, renewables and EVs alike, as @bradplumer & Rebecca Elliott...
Heavy Data Week Ahead, Iran Conflict Still Dominates
This week is packed with market moving data but Iran War will remain a key focus 👇 🇺🇸 US -Retail Sales -Non-Farm Payrolls -ADP -Chicago PMI -ISM Mfg -Confidence -Trade 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ CPI & GE CPI -Confidence -GE Retail Sales -GE Unemployment 🇬🇧 UK -GDP 🇨🇦 CA -GDP -Trade 🇦🇺 AU -RBA Minutes -Trade 🇯🇵 JP -CPI -Retail Sales -Tankan
US Empire Decline Confirmed, Eastern Powers Ascend
Back in 2010 on @cnbc , I warned that the American empire was entering a phase of rapid decline, and that Eastern powers would rise to fill the vacuum. 📉That forecast is now unfolding in real time. This isn’t hindsight....
LNG Shortfall Threatens Global Gas‑Fired Power Generation
Gas-fired generation will be squeezed by LNG shortfall Global gas-fired electricity generation is likely to be among the hardest hit sectors following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the loss of production as a result of damage to two...
Profit by Buying When Everyone Is Pessimistic
“Buy low. Of course, you say, that’s obvious. Well, it may be, but that isn’t the way the market works. Buy when most people, including experts, are pessimistic. So simple in concept. So difficult in execution.” — Sir John Templeton...
AI Giants’ $11.2T Valuation Overshadows South Sea Bubble
The Top 5 AI hyperscalers now carry an $11.2 trillion market cap. Adjusted for inflation, this dwarfs the South Sea Bubble. I’ve broken down the full Fundsmith 2026 AGM and why Terry Smith is staying the course. Read the full FREE deep...
Eurozone Borrowing Costs Spike over Iran Shock Fears
Eurozone borrowing costs soar on fears of fiscal hit from Iran shock via @FT https://t.co/QuVa5RF5wm
UK Cuts Gas Imports Despite Energy Security Risks
Latest instalment in the “Miliband is a moron” series Britain’s gas imports to be cut despite energy security threat https://t.co/EsJkZMM8LL
Meta’s Hype Ignored Fundamentals, Stock Drops 30%
Meta is down >30% since I released this post in late July. "If you only looked at the financial headlines or skimmed your feed on earnings day, you'd think the story was simple: Meta is firing on all cylinders, and Zuckerberg’s...
Hormuz Oil Flow Down 40%, Now Mostly Crude
Pre-war Strait of Hormuz flow (crude + products): ~20m b/d. My updated flow assumptions: Iran: ~1.5m b/d (SoH) UAE: ~1.0m b/d (Fujairah above pre-war) KSA: ~5.0m b/d (Yanbu above pre-war) Plus ~1.0m b/d (Non-Iranian SoH tankers) Plus >2.0m...
Bear Scenario Looms: Oil Spikes, Fed Stuck, S&P Near 6k
Looks like next week is heading towards the bear case scenario I highlighted in my weekly report. Bear case (35% probability): The April 6 deadline produces strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran retaliates against Saudi or UAE oil facilities. Brent breaks...
Euro Adoption Spikes Bulgaria's Inflation Beyond ECB Target
Bulgaria’s FORCED ADOPTION of the Euro was supposed to benefit Bulgaria. Instead, inflation sits at 3.32%/yr, WELL ABOVE the ECB's 2%/yr inflation target. As the Father of Bulgaria’s currency board, I predicted this. https://t.co/c3KVbZZNxx
Borrowing on Track,
Half the annual borrowing in half the year is completely in line with estimates. A crisis may also need additional borrowing, let's see. Rbi will also announce a pay out soon and the balance sheet is way too large, hope...
Vietnam's Economy Thrives; To Lam Emerges as Reformer
Vietnam's macro situation is so impressive. And To Lam seems to be more of a reformer than I initially thought. https://t.co/pKtcfrLTG6
India Gains Global Market Share Across Industries
India taking market share in almost every global industry, e.g. electronics, machinery and offshore services https://t.co/oP7wSlNcF0
Refined Product Stress Spikes, California Diesel Tops $8
Taking stock 1 month into oil market madness: The stress is in refined products. Diesel Price topping $8 in California is picture perfect 👌
Indonesia's 2026 Nickel Quotas Tighten Feedstock, Not Oversupply
Indonesia nickel ore quotas may tighten feedstock supply in 2026 without solving oversupply in downstream nickel products. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/indonesia-nickel-ore-quotas-risk.html
Japan’s Low Inflation Mirrors Sluggish Money Supply Growth
Japan’s inflation eases to 1.26%/yr in February, BELOW its inflation target of 2%/yr. Japan’s money supply (M2) is growing at 1.73%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of ~6.07%/yr, consistent w/ Japan’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
Mastering Breakers, Order Blocks, and Mitigation Patterns
Bearish Breaker 📊 Bullish Breaker📊 Bullish Order Block📊 Bullish Order Block📊 Bearish Order Block📊 Bearish Order Block📊 Reclaimed Order Block📊 Bullish Mitigation Block📊 Bearish Mitigation Block📊 Rejection Block📊 Propulsion Block📊
Meloni Considers Reforming State Firms After Election Loss
Meloni mulls changes at Italian state owned firms after ballot setback https://t.co/y18cpYo2uG via @donatopmancini https://t.co/mVXVm80bX2
Diversification Illusion: Hidden Concentration Threatens Portfolio Resilience
Most portfolios look diversified. Very few actually are. High-net-worth balance sheets often carry hidden concentration risk—especially in real estate, private business interests, and illiquid positions. On paper, it looks like strength. In reality, it can create fragility. A fiduciary approach doesn’t just ask...
Japan, Australia Currencies Slide Together
The upside to Japan’s risk aversion – ample petroleum reserves The Yen has weakened against the US$ since the Iran war drove the oil price higher, but so too has the AU$. Japan imports most of its energy needs, so a...
Houthis May Keep Bab‑el‑Mandeb Strait Open
In fairness this means the Houthis are also considering not closing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, guys. https://t.co/ZiiVU0cw8C
US‑Israeli War Sends 60‑40 Portfolio to Worst Month Since 2022
As a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the traditional '60-40' portfolio of equities and bonds is on track for the worst month since September 2022. US-ISRAELI WAR = NOT WALL STREET'S FRIEND. https://t.co/kWe8ucZedL
Texas Triangle Dominates U.S. Population Growth Rankings
Long the Texas Triangle. ✅ 4 of the Top 10 US MSA's with the most population growth are located in Texas and 5 of the Top 10 counties. ✅ 3 of the Top 10 counties are in the Houston MSA
Europe Stuck Between China Dependency and US Reliance
Yes, this is the key question right now. And the answer is No because Europes economy depends on China, but also Yes, because we need American defense, energy, tech and trade. The alternative is Russian energy, Chinese Tech, defense and Trade So...
China-U.S. Parity Threatens Europe, Gulf Eyes New Alliance
These are hard words, and will create resentment. Fact of the matter is that they are true. China and US are equals and in a few years China could be stronger than US in many ways. Therefore Dunroe doctrine is...
Stay Calm, Keep Buying: Long-Term Wins Over Volatility
My brokerage account is down $27k YTD. More if you count 401k, HSA, etc But I’m not worried at all. I’ll continue buying as I always do. Thinking long term is how you win, despite short term volatility.
Houthis' Missile Threat Could Disrupt Red Sea Oil Flow
FEDWATCH: “.. the Houthis have entered the conflict by launching ballistic missile attacks ..; their next move could be targeting vessels in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb into the Red Sea .. The oil market, rightfully, is sensing that...
Reserve Currency Advantage No Longer Erodes Domestic Industry
the idea that the privilege of the reserve currency automatically guts the domestic industrial base was true when the world was globalizing, there was one supply chain, and the law of one price was intact. Those days are over....
Micro Nasdaq Futures: Smaller Size Saves Prop Accounts
Most traders blow prop accounts trading Nasdaq futures with size that’s too big. The moves are fast and the pullbacks are deep. Scaling down to micro contracts (MNQ) gives you more control, better risk management, and cleaner execution. Smaller size makes a big...
Safely Spot a Short Squeeze Without Losing Capital
How to ACTUALLY catch a short squeeze - without blowing up your trading account. #daytrading #stockmarket #momentum #tradingeducation #stockstowatch
Pasadena Seeks Exemption From Transit‑friendly SB 79 Amid Rising Rents
Even as rents rise, Pasadena is trying to get carved out from SB 79, a bill that would make it easier to build apartments near transit. https://t.co/8Ku8qFkpZW
Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, Fuels Inflation, Stalls Rate Cuts
The war in Iran has set off a chain of events, with soaring oil prices driving higher inflation expectations, lower rate cut odds, and a pullback in precious metals.
Wealth Grows When You Trade, Read, and Complicate Less
Investing is an odd field where effort often hurts returns. The more you trade, the less you make. The more news you consume, the worse you perform. The more complex your strategy, the more likely it fails. Wealth is built...
Massive SPY Put Purchases Drive Significant Gains
Top April 2nd (W) positioning form Hawk Database... SPY puts have seen massive buys since early March and are up significantly https://t.co/I2kbzAFe3I
PANW CEO Invests $10M in Own Shares
Palo Alto $PANW CEO Nikesh Arora filed for his purchase of $10 Million worth of $PANW stock He bought 68,085 shares at a average price ~$147 per share
True Value Requires Assets or Earnings, Not Low Price
"A stock is not undervalued unless intrinsic value is supported by hard assets or earning power." Most “cheap” stocks aren’t actually cheap.
Friday's US Market Moves Reveal Unexpected Pattern
This is how the 🇺🇸 stock market performed on Friday What did you notice first?
ROIC Sources Dictate: Differentiate or Lead Costs
Michael Mauboussin on ROIC and Competitive Advantage If a business has a high ROIC from a high NOPAT margin, focus on differentiation If a business has a high ROIC from a high invested capital turnover, focus on cost leadership Very few businesses...