Small Caps Crack First; Large Caps Soon Follow
$IWM down 9% from highs. $SPY down 5%. 400 basis points of divergence. Small caps always crack first. The question is whether large caps follow. History says yes. https://t.co/sp96ah5BoF
Russian Market Leads, Dow up; S&P, Nasdaq May Follow
RUS: first to go OD up, Dow right there....will SP and Naz follow suit..... https://t.co/rBhP8iope6
Rare Oversold‑to‑Overbought Signal May Signal Bull Return
The clock for a potential Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) started last week. Only 2% of all these signals go from oversold (like now) to overbought within 10 days (triggering a signal). But those that do tend to suggest the bulls are...
BDCs Lag While S&P Holds Near January Peak
The last 2 times BDCs were in a bear market (2020 & 2022), the S&P 500 was in one as well. Interesting divergence today with the S&P 500 down only 5% off its January high... Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
BYD Stock Hits 13‑Month High on Overseas Sales Optimism
BYD shares surged the most in 13 months on Monday, with investor sentiment boosted by signs of an improving overseas sales outlook https://t.co/qEQBvoJcyG
Massive TLT Call Surge Signals Need for Bond Strength
Treasury (TLT) early big buying June $84 calls 7000X for $3M, need to see Bonds hold up for stocks to stabilize
SPY Preps for Inflation Data and Fed Decision
$SPY levels going into the week. On the agenda: - CPI & PPI Inflation Data (Wed) - FOMC / Interest Rate Decision (Wed) - Fed Press Conference (Wed)
Elevated IV and Tail Hedge Spike Signal Vol
The bid for tail hedges could be seen in mid-Feb and peaked for now on 3/6. Meanwhile, ATM IV (VOLI) remains elevated. Big week with VIXperation on Weds and quarterly OpEx on Friday. Relax at your own risk. https://t.co/BdigWM05b0
Oil Spike Overblown, Prices Set to Fall Soon
Bessent says too much is being made of the run-up in oil prices from Iran's retaliatory measures to U.S.-Israel strikes, claiming coverage of the risks around the Strait of Hormuz is being amplified by anti-Trump media bias and is part...
CTMX Pre‑Market Flush Hits S2, Reverses to Inflection
$CTMX #1 Pre-market game plan. quick flush to S2 and reversal back up to inflection. worked both directions quickly. tight spread high liquidity. https://t.co/IFVl2Rl3Uu
Higher Rates, Free Market, Not Fed Cuts, Win
There's going to be a lot of people complaining this week when the Fed doesn't cut rates. Let them. It's the right decision. In fact, interest rates should be much higher than where they are today. The free market should...
Chart Shows Gains Moving From
CHART OF THE DAY: Did You Get Out Of UAE and Into $NORW With Us? https://t.co/eTxtezfj7N via @hedgeye
Private Credit Crisis Erases $265B Market Value
Private credit default rate just hit 5.8%. Apollo down 41%. Blackstone down 46%. Blue Owl down 66% from peak. $265 billion in market cap erased. This is not a headline. It's a crisis. https://t.co/Am5fwWlQPj
Hormuz Closure Threatens Oil, Gas, Fertilizer, Food Security
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson on the GLOBAL IMPACT of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ: "You’ve now closed off 20% of the world’s oil supply, 25% of the world’s liquid natural gas, and 35% of the world’s urea... There's going to be...
Gas Prices Surge 25% in Just Two Weeks
National average of gas prices is up 73 cents since the war started 15 days ago (middle panel), or 25% (bottom panel). https://t.co/NhhuStQnOD
ES and NQ Trade Below Declining 5‑SMA,
$ES_F $NQ_F Green is the YTD low day VWAP / red is last wk high anchor = overhead levels of interest ES and NQ purple = new WTD anchor Both are below decl 5sma (not shown) https://t.co/ZoZZ8cTXK0
Spot Winners in Choppy Markets Using Relative Strength
📺 THIS IS HOW YOU FIND WINNERS IN A CHOPPY MARKET You can still find winning opportunities even when the broader market is weak or choppy. The key is to watch for relative strength. While $SPY was making lows and trading...
Fertilizer Prices Surge 35%, Fueling Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since October 2022, rising 35% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: https://t.co/pOPRl50mmA
Speculators Rush In as Iran Conflict Threatens Oil Supply
Just a few notes on OIL CL before the Iran crisis started all research showed that supply was swamping demand as global production due to progess in discovery and drilling was exceeding demand especially with China going all in on EV Clearly...
Markets Stay Calm on 5-Year Inflation Outlook
Market relatively sanguine about longer term inflation. 5 year, 5 year forward inflation swap showing no angst despite crude elevating front short-term swaps https://t.co/b8Po5HE6EV
Dollar's Rise Is Modest; Will Fall Post‑war
The Dollar has risen against the G10 (lhs) and against EM (rhs), but - once you factor in that this shock is at least 3 times as big as Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine - it's trading quite soft. We're...
Meta Rises 3% Pre‑Market Amid Job‑Cut Rum
Meta +3% in premarket (note reuters report on 20% job cuts too) and Nebius +11%
Oil Trading Treated as Abstract Futures, Not Physical Settlement
Peeps seem to be trading oil like an abstract future and not something that physically settles
Brent's 42% War Surge Faces Three Major Downside Triggers
Brent is up 42% from before the war began. That's a bigger risk premium than after the Ukraine invasion. Catalysts that can make Brent fall: (i) Trump ends the war; (ii) the US blockades Iranian ports (Iran's economy implodes); (iii)...
FedEx Overtakes UPS as Parcel Market Value Leader
There's a new market value champion in parcel logistics. For the first time in over 50 years, @FedEx just passed $UPS as the most valuable company in parcel. The Memphis-based pioneer is now worth over $85 billion. While UPS still retains...
Risk‑On Morning Spurs Dip‑Buy Targets in Tech, Crypto
🔥 Here’s my #stickynote for March 16, 2026: 📊 Market Insight: Feels like a risk-on environment early this morning. Watching for dip buys in tech and crypto-related names if the broader market holds momentum after the open. Trade Ideas I’m Watching: $TQQQ 46.50...
SNDK Shows Friday Strength, Watch Gap‑Up Hold
$SNDK a great example of relative strength from Friday. Trim and trail. See how much of today’s gap up holds. https://t.co/bzoSJB7snz
Energy Surges While Financials Tumble YTD
Top 3 S&P 500 Sectors YTD... 1) Energy: +29% 2) Utilities: +10% 3) Staples: +9% Bottom 3 S&P 500 Sectors YTD... 1) Financials: -11% 2) Consumer Discretionary: -7% 3) Tech: -5% Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
Avoid Shorting Open; Market Still Above Bottom
📺 DON’T RUSH TO SHORT TODAY’S MARKET OPEN — BUT THIS ISN’T THE MARKET BOTTOM YET Many traders expected a sharp selloff after Friday’s weak close to start this week. Instead, the market points to opening stronger, creating a situation where...
Vanna‑driven Rally May Thrust SPX Into the 6,800s.
It *could* be a big week for a vanna driven rally into the 6,800s. Note here how VIX spread to SPX movement (RV) often contracts around VIX exp, which is this Wed. We've unlocked the AM Founder's Note to explain our...
LEG Merger Arb Spread Swells to 18% Amid Turmoil
$LEG merger arb is getting juicy. Deal is non-binding. Spread now ~18%. Spread went from ~6% → 18%, mostly on recent mkt turmoil. Mgmt gave $SGI long DD access, cancelled the conf call, and multiple execs just got CoC bonuses. Downside ~10% if...
CLZ26's High Risk Premium Reflects Delivery Incentive
CLZ26 price of 75 is the expected forward spot price of oil for December delivery plus a risk premium. That risk premium is likely higher than normal (Z26 is cheaper than normal) due to the high incentive for those...
Neighbor Releases $2 Bn Frozen
This is from the end of December. Was this meant to lure Iran into negotiations? ran says $2bn of frozen assets released by neighboring country https://t.co/miz6slNXAM
Prepare for the Week, Trade Live with Us
📆First we will prepare you for the week ahead 📈Then we will trade it LIVE Join US https://t.co/VB3DW4Bub5
Warsh Delay Helps Him, Harms Powell Amid Oil Shock
“Interestingly, any delay in Warsh’s confirmation is a gift to Warsh and a curse for Powell as the Fed now faces the challenge of managing yet another supply side shock with a president that views rate cuts as the answer...
Falling Metals Signal Strengthening Dollar Trend Over Daily DXY Fluctuations
Falling prices of precious metals are a signal that the dollar is getting stronger overall, even though today the DXY may be down a little. What really matters is the trend and not a day in the life of a...
India Buys Pricey Russian Oil Legally, Boosting Putin
Somewhere in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is rubbing his hands. India is paying ~$99 a barrel for Russian crude Urals (including shipping costs). And since the US eased its sanctions on Russian crude, it's all legal.
Bull Market Support Fades to Lowest Since May 2025
🔶 4 of 8 Bullish 🟡 Regime: Bull Market Support Fading The checklist dropped to 4 of 8 signals this week. This is the lowest reading since May 2025. Primary trend is still up... just... But internals, risk appetite, and global participation deteriorated sharply. New weekly...
Big Gains Come From Rare Deep Market Corrections
Since 1950, the average drawdown in the S&P 500 has been 14% in a calendar year, and drawdowns of at least 10% have occurred in 37 of the past 75 years. 20%+ corrections have occurred in 11 out of the past...
Gold's Historic Peak Signals Potential Bull‑Market Endgame
Gold Might Be Facing a Lose-Lose vs. Stocks - Gold has reached historic nosebleed levels at 1.6x vs. its five-year moving average in 2026, last matched at the 1979-80 peak, with reversion implications. What's notable from our graphic is the...
Gold-to-Crude Ratio Hits Record, Signals Potential Peak
Historic Gold Stretch vs. Crude May Signal Peak - "Unsustainably high" describes the 79 barrels of WTI crude oil equal to an ounce of gold at the end of February. Only the collapse to negative crude prices in April 2020...
WTI and Dollar Slip, Markets Hope Exit Ramps Amid Conflict
April WTI is trading lower as is the US dollar. The market still seems hopeful that exit ramps are found shortly, even though the conflict escalated over the weekend. Many are skeptical of the unexpected gains in PRC data....
Hedge Funds Boost Nat‑Gas Futures, Yet Still Below Historic Peaks
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 159 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 10. Fund...
LNG Demand May Surge 85% by 2050, Asia Leads
Shell says LNG demand could grow by as much as 85% through 2050 🌍 🚢 Asia is expected to be the main driver of demand, and further investments in new projects will be needed in the 2030s and 2040s to...
Silver Futures Slip Below $77, Bearish Outlook Persists
Silver Futures: Down >$3.5 to the $77 handle. I feel like the lone or one of the few folks who have remained negative on higher prices (for now) based on a few different factors.
Bull Markets Generate Most Profits, Not Bear Shorting
Big money is made in bull markets not trying to sell short in bear markets, backtests reflect this.
Shortening Conflict Drives Oil Prices Down, Prolonging Rises
Every time markets think this conflict lasts longer, oil prices rise. Anything that shortens it makes prices fall. A Trump TACO does that or a blockade of Iran's ports, which'll cause Iran's economy to implode, forcing the Mullahs to reopen...
Asia's Gas‑to‑Coal Flexibility Offsets Europe’s 2022 Shortfall
South Korea is lifting a cap on coal-fired power generation (until now set at 80% of capacity) to offset the loss of LNG The flexibility of Asia to performan gas-to-coal switching (and its enormous coal-fired fleet) provides a layer of insulation...
10-Year Yield Signals Bullish Trade Amid Accelerating Inflation
JBG 10yr Yield back to signaling Bullish TRADE and TREND @Hedgeye with #Quad3 Inflation Accelerating https://t.co/qkWdn2Fxoe
Oslo Stocks Surge 1.1% After Strong Week
NORWAY: stocks in Oslo ramp another +1.1% higher after a +2.5% week (we're long) https://t.co/fyqWKJlIEl