Red Sea Swarms with Tankers as Hormuz Remains Closed
MAP OF THE DAY: While the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed (other than a few tankers, notably from India), the Red Sea is witnessing the arrival of an oil tanker armada to the Saudi terminals there. (Tracking via @TheTerminal) (Blue arrows are oil tankers DWT >120,000) https://t.co/uPTfxDu0j3
Volatility Confounds Bears; Navigate With Clear Criteria
The Weekly Compass is Live: Volatility has dominated over the last weeks confusing even the bears, despite the clear bearish resolution. I break down the essential criteria and the specific levels you need to navigate this environment without getting caught in...
Fujairah Resumes Oil Loadings, Prices Set to Rise
UAE's Fujairah resumes oil loadings after attack, sources say. Oil is still expected to open higher when trading resumes tonight https://t.co/PPrPe2zMLy
Geopolitical Guesswork Turned ₹1L Into ₹6Cr
The Option That Turned ₹1 Lakh Into ₹6 Crore 💸💸💸 On 26 Feb, MCX Crude Oil 9000 CE was sitting around ₹125–₹150.💡 Nobody touched it. Too far. Too boring. Then came the strikes on Iran, crude shot past ₹10,000.🔥 That same ignored option jumped...
Master Institutional VWAP: 4‑Step Framework for Traders
VWAP is the #1 indicator institutions watch — but most retail traders use it wrong. 🏦 In this video I break down the 4-step VWAP framework I use every session: Trend ➝ Pullback ➝ Reaction ➝ Execute. 📊 Comment VWAP and I’ll send...
S&P 500 Poised to Retest Feb 2025 Highs
S&P 500 Index feeling a tad top heavy, if a couple of nearby lines of support get captured, it could set up a move back toward the the February 2025 highs (6,147) prior to the puke that took out...
Equities Near Bottom, Expect Weakness Then Reversal
Positioning suggests equities likely near a bottom... Weakness early next week followed by a reversal? Chart @SubuTrade https://t.co/u7fpaG36eG
Trim the Bulk, Let Outliers Drive Returns
The 80/20 rule is just a Power Law in disguise. Often, in a portfolio: 📈 20% of your holdings will drive 80% of your returns. 📉 80% of your stress will come from 20% of your "average" bets. The secret to long-term success? Cutting...
Tech Gap, AI Disruption, and Defense Supercycle Insights
We covered a lot of ground this week on @excessreturnpod with new interviews featuring Jim Paulsen, Vitaliy Katsenelson, and Joseph Shaposhnik. @CultishCreative and I highlight the best moments and break down the biggest lessons. https://t.co/Hklp9wx0tH • The growing gap between tech and the...
Rate Lock‑In Suppresses Millions of Home Listings
The mortgage rate lockdown theory has not existed in the data since 2022, as nobody would sell their low rate to buy another home. https://t.co/E2q1j8TMjQ
Stocks Typically Bottom Five Months Before GDP Rebounds
As recession fears mount, remember that stocks bottom ~5 months before GDP inflects. JPMAM https://t.co/R8swcw5iFp
Foreign Value Stocks Cheap Due to Lack of Ownership
Foreign value stocks are cheap but nobody owns any, which is probably why they are cheap, which is probably why nobody owns any. https://t.co/xW57r2cQMq via @followMFS https://t.co/CPa6Gwx7K8
China's Commodity Markets Roiled by Fuel Ban, Iron Ore Dispute
It was a big week for commodities in China. On the iran war we had a refined fuel export ban and a request to access commercial reserves. Meanwhile the China, BHP iron ore saga exploded into life again
Pre‑Conflict 2026 Mortgage Locks Hovered
To give you an idea of what levels were rates locked in 2026 before the conflict started, a bunch of rate locks came in at 6.20%-6.35% @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #housing #realestate #chartdaddy
Why a Fed Rate Cut Now Signals Trouble
My week ahead article: It Would Probably Be a Bad Sign if the Fed Cut Now – Here’s Why https://t.co/iRgDsoYaOg https://t.co/HWPl79e8Ez
Lennar Sees Modest Tariff Impact as Costs Fall
After initial have a concerned reaction to tariffs back in spring 2025, most giant public homebuilders walked back their tariff concerns last summer. That commentary shift reflected a combination of factors: some of the proposed tariffs didn’t ultimately go through,...
Vanguard Predicts 4.8% Annual Return for US Large Caps
Vanguard forecasts US large caps to return 4.8% annually over the next decade. Large-cap growth: 3.9% https://t.co/THci6XvvJc
IEA Sets Immediate Oil Release for Asia, Delays Europe, America
IEA has provided an update on the emergency oil stock release, with details on timing, regional split, and crude/product split. Asia stocks will be released immediately. Europe / America only at the of March. Still missing is the flow rate, however....
Shift4 Payments: 7x FCF and 20%+ Growth
New writeup: Shift4 Payments: A Fintech Compounder Trading Like a Melting Ice Cube 7x free cash flow for a business compounding at 20%+ $FOUR Link in bio https://t.co/R6SWOw4hoQ
Lennar Prices Fell 13.6% After Incentive Adjustment
If you’re active on “Housing Twitter,” you’ll likely see charts circulating this coming week that show Lennar’s average selling price down roughly -23.8% from its 2022 peak. It’s worth noting, however, that the figure reported by Lennar is net of...
UBS Projects 9.5% Total Return for AV by 2028
'Investors' Chronicle' p39 this week mentions UBS expectation of a 9.5% yield from #AV. for 2028, comprising Dividend payment and Share Buybacks.
High AAII Bearish Sentiment Signals Strong Future Returns
AAII bearish sentiment at 46.4%. Historically, readings above 40% have preceded some of the strongest 6-month forward returns. The crowd is a gift if you fade it. https://t.co/mif2wA7u7k
Central Banks Delay Hikes in Supply Shocks, Await Wage Inflation
The supply shock move in Energy prices, fertilizer prices, and food prices IS a Rate hike which slows the economy and is disinflationary to goods and services that are not energy and food. A dual mandate central bank doesn't hike...
IEA Nations Confirm Massive Oil Release, Need Hormuz Opening
IEA countries have now confirmed their contributions to our largest ever oil stock release This brings unprecedented additional volumes of oil to the market from 16 March onward. However, opening the Strait of Hormuz is vital for a return to stable...
Global Economy Faces Growing Complexity and Uncertainty
Please find below the links to my weekly look at what has become a much more complicated and uncertain situation for the global economy and markets. linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-shp3e/?trackingId=vXKBwDM3QxqdFHY2kfbOrQ%3D%3D&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_detail_base%3BXcJdDTIXTiGfbxaVzWx6xA%3D%3D https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-372?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web #economy
Iran Attacks Hint at Sixth Shock, but Prices Modest
"This month’s attacks on Iran point to a sixth global energy supply shock, but the rise in crude oil prices to date does not represent a shock of the magnitude seen in earlier episodes. At $100bbl, Brent crude is less...
Oil Shock Boosts Dollar, Weakens Euro and Asian Currencies
I don’t know how much clearer I could have been in the latest roundup. 1) the price of oil doubled in a week and the Hormuz closure is 100x works for European and Asian markets. Therefore as long as it...
Group Investments by Risk, Not Asset Class, for Smoother Returns
How a "total portfolio approach" that groups investments by risk and performance characteristics (rather than asset class) could lead to a smoother ride for investors (@JasonKephart | @MorningstarInc) More curated articles on investment planning this #WeekendReading: https://t.co/L80cXNYxuT
Invest Early, Retire Richer: 10 Years Beats 25
This is crazy: If you are 35 and start investing $5k/yr and stop at 60, you will have ~$431,754 (8%/yr assumption) But if you are 25, start investing $5k/yr and stop at 35, you will have ~$615,580 at 60 (8%/yr assumption) $75k less...
Consider Buying NVIDIA if It Slides Below $170
Not exactly willing to chase or overpay for large-cap tech right now, but I wouldn’t be mad about an undercut of the 170 lows to pick up some cheap NVIDIA. Discussed more in this week’s video: https://t.co/ov4LwpAgW0 $SPY $QQQ $VIX...
Oil Shock Resilience Masks Sectoral Strain on Airlines, Farms, Autos
The WSJ reports: "The U.S. economy is less exposed to oil shocks today than in prior decades." But, today’s economy shows strain in airlines, farms, autos. Airlines face soaring fuel costs. Farmers face higher fertilizer prices. Rising gas prices threaten US autos. https://t.co/bOpYCs0pCD
Gas Prices Surge 23% Since War Began
The @wsj on one of the most sensitive prices across the economic, political and social landscape: “Average regular gasoline prices nationally were around $3.68 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA, a 23% increase from before the war started at the...
Stop Trimming Pennies; Tackle Overpriced Essentials First
One of the biggest mistakes people make when trying to cut back on their spending is focusing on the smallest expenses first. You're cancelling your $12 subscriptions; meanwhile, your housing is taking up 50% of your income, and your car...
Oil Prices Swing Wildly on Political Hype, Not Trends
Last Sunday night, after being hugely complacent, the market was panicking and Brent briefly went to $120. But then Trump said war would be over soon and it fell back to $80. Oil isn't a one way trip here. There's...
US Oil Exports Could Spark Overwhelming Ban Demand
I’m really concerned that when people take this one step further and learn that the US is actually selling oil to other countries that the public’s demand for an export ban will become overwhelming.
Free Deep Pairs Trading Strategy Threatens Hedge Funds
Hedge funds are worried. Stat arb is now available to the masses. Some guy just published the most in-depth pairs trading strategy I've ever seen. 100% free
Invest by Following Crowds Selectively, Seek Misunderstood Resilient Niches
As Charles Mackay observed in 1841, "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one." We are social creatures whose...
India’s Gulf Oil Imports Vanish, Boosting Iranian, Russian Demand
India used to import 50% of its oil from Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE (blue). All this oil had to transit the Strait of Hormuz and - recently - this is down to zero. It's this massive hole that's...
Iran Could Shut Hormuz for Weeks, Experts Warn
So to speak.... “Even the possibility that a hostile power could choke traffic in Hormuz—by far the world’s most vital energy and commodity artery—was considered to be absurd,” McNally told Fortune, largely because it hadn’t happened before. “When I would tell...
Fuel Oil Prices Spike, Threatening Container Shipping Costs
COLUMN: While the price of Brent and WTI crudes remain well below their record high, the cost of fuel oil has surged above the 2022 and 2008 peaks. The surge is a big problem for the workhorse of globalisation: the container...
Munger's 10 Uncomfortable Money Truths Everyone Ignores
Charlie Munger On Wealth: 10 Hard Truths About Money Most People Don’t Want To Hear https://t.co/nbDYQBQi3R
Ge
Here it comes. Covering : - US Strike on Iran's Kharg Island - Impact on USOIL & trade idea with targets - Why Gold ( XAUUSD ) isn't moving higher & whats next for it - Stagflation update & its impact - US Indexes update &...
German Gasoline Outpaces Europe After Oil Shock
Good Morning from Germany, where petrol prices have reacted much more sharply to the oil shock than in the rest of Europe. Excluding taxes and duties, petrol currently costs about 94 cents per litre at the pump in Germany, compared...
Free 12‑Hour ICT & SMC Trading Masterclass
The Ultimate ICT & SMC Trading Guide📊 12 Hours Free Course 📊 Liquidity📊 Market Structure📊 Fair Value Gaps📊 3 Structures 📊
Smart Money Technique: Using Correlated Assets for Confirmation
Smart Money Technique SMT 📊 What is smt📊 Correlated Assets 📊 Types of smt📊 (1) Bearish SMT📊 SMT as confirmation Tool 📊
Global Debt Surges to Record $348 Trillion, Crisis Deepens
‼️Global debt CRISIS is reaching INSANE levels: World debt SPIKED +$29 trillion in 2025, to $348 trillion, the highest EVER. This was the 2nd LARGEST annual increase in HISTORY. Global government debt hit a record $107 trillion.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-dropped-amid-rising-ai-and-geopolitical-uncertainty-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-09-20-a312
Rohit Srivastava Unveils 30-Year RMI Stock Strategy
30 Years of Market Secrets: Rohit Srivastava Reveals the RMI Strategy to Buy and Sell Stocks. https://t.co/PYmQeXXVFG
Institutional Pullback Threatens Builder Supply, Says Lennar
Lennar says pushing institutional homebuyers out of the housing market could cause big builders to 'build less supply' Lennar CEO Stuart Miller said on Friday that institutional investors are already pulling back further this year given the heightened policy pressure
Follow Simple Rules, Not Genius, to Win Markets
The person who wins in the stock market isn’t the smartest one, but the one who follows the rules. 1 Morning surge → Sell all 2 Afternoon surge → Don’t chase 3 Morning plunge → Don’t sell 4 Afternoon plunge → Buying opportunity tomorrow 5...
LNG Fleet Shifts to Asia, China Eyes US Supply
⭕️A large number of LNG carriers were diverted from Europe to Asia. Will China restarts buying US LNG? Map form @Kpler I added the red arrows