Commodity Forecasts Falter: Dated Brent Predictions Missed
Would love to hear from all the folks who just days ago told us that Dated Brent can only go up and the gap to futures will inexorably widen. But of course today all you hear is crickets. We all get forecasts wrong, but the commodity complex is the worst. https://t.co/P8ylpTutU6 https://t.co/699ZC9BCeS
Median Price Ignores Bedroom Count, Misleads Families
Another example ⬇️⬇️ why price $$ per unit is an incomplete metric Median “home” price does not account for the number of bedrooms … which REALLY matters for families.
S&P
From its inception in 1957 through today, the S&P 500 has hit 1,313 all-time highs, hitting a new high once every 19 days on average. https://t.co/jjlXwK9mzq
CVD Equipment Nears Liquidation, Cash Hits 80% Market Cap
Not officially a liquidation, but getting close (I think). CVD Equipment $CVV agreed to sell its Stainless Design Concepts division for $16.9m, o/w $15m after taxes and fees. This will bring total net cash on the b/s at ~80% of...
Hormuz Disruption Could Push Oil Above $130, Trigger Demand Collapse
MS: Tail Risks Would Drive Oil Into Demand Destruction Territory A prolonged disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would require oil prices to rise into demand destruction territory, historically above of $130 Distribution of Inflation-Adjusted Oil Prices https://t.co/Hw1dB85crz
Saudi Deficit Swells, Turning Kingdom Into Eurodollar Drain
Saudi Arabia's deficit widened to $25.28 billion in Q4 2025. Instead of being a source of the petrodollars, the kingdom has become a drain on the eurodollar system. https://t.co/JkziRznkyx
New Stock Highs Explained: Optimism for Better Times
Stocks are back to new highs and many wonder how that is possible. In our latest Glass Half Full, Sonu and I discussed why this is happening and why better times could be likely. https://t.co/ZF7kxjqVAL
Risk $3,750 for $15,000: Is It Worth It?
This is a Factor Flying Fortress Pattern Over the next year or so the risk is $3,750 to make $15,000 Is this an acceptable R:r for you https://t.co/k0A11YhD7l
Industrial Valuations Lag Record Behind S&P 500
S&P 500 sector valuations.. record gap between Industrials and the SPX Index, I hear https://t.co/k2tLMv610Z
Breadth Signals Bull Market: AD Line Hits New Highs
Breadth leads price, same as it always has. S&P 500 advance/decline line didn't make new lows in late March, another clue the end wasn't near like so many were telling us. The A/D line moved to new highs last week, yet another...
80% of S&P 500 Above 20‑
S&P 500 stocks above their 20-day MA is over 80% currently. One of the big clues a major low as brewing back then was price broke to new lows in late March, while the number of stocks above their 20-day didn't....
Burger Prices Surge, Imports Rise, Exports Fall.
"Burgers approach luxury territory as beef prices remain high" https://t.co/kxMtibg3NB "Imports are rising to fill the gap, while exports are falling as domestic supply tightens." https://t.co/U23joP278Z
Bulls Take Lead as Strait Reopens, Markets Rally
S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Forecast for the Week Ahead- Bulls in Charge as Strait Reopens https://t.co/6xWJdHAsUG #SPX500, $NDX & $DJI Weekly charts https://t.co/8FDRdtqzMG
Energy Prices Set to Floor as Cheap Oil Ends
An important reminder for the weekend: The oil-to-gold ratio remains near historically low levels, and the era of cheap energy is likely coming to an end. It’s hard to imagine countries not becoming far more aggressive in building strategic reserves after the...
SPX Targets 7473 at Next 3.0 Fibonacci Extension
$SPX - Pay attention to the intermediate term tops it has made at extensions of the 2022 bear market. The July 2024 top at the 1.618 extension. The February 2025 top at the 2.0 extension. The January 2026 top at...
Next Week’s Top Breakout Candidates Unveiled
𝗧𝗼𝗽 𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗼𝘂𝘁 / 𝗕𝗢 𝗦𝗼𝗼𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 (𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸) ⬇️ 𝗦𝗔𝗜𝗟 – 16Y Cup & Handle (BO Soon) 𝗖𝗨𝗠𝗠𝗜𝗡𝗦𝗜𝗡𝗗 – Tight Range BO 𝗦𝗖𝗜 – 3T VCP BO 𝗖𝗨𝗣𝗜𝗗 – Range + Pivot BO 𝗕𝗛𝗔𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗪𝗜𝗥𝗘 – Support Bounce 𝗔𝗡𝗚𝗘𝗟𝗢𝗡𝗘 – Trendline BO + Volume 𝗦𝗜𝗘𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗦 – Darvas Box 𝗖𝗛𝗘𝗡𝗡𝗣𝗘𝗧𝗥𝗢...
Bull Markets Surviving Three Years Usually Persist for Years
The current bull market is 3.5 years old and up 99.2%. As we've noted many times, once bull markets get past their third birthday they rarely end anytime soon. Over the past past 50 years, 5 made it past their 3rd birthday...
Japanese Mortgage Guarantor Faces Yield Impact, Low ROE Concerns
Japanese dominant independent mortgage guarantor with extremely high profit margins How they are hurt/helped by rising yields is very interesting to me Write-up from shareholder saying their ROE is too low (& they hold too much capital) https://t.co/BVNg6v8bps
JD.com Gold Prices Jump to 1,134 RMB/Gram
Physical gold bars on JD.com the Chinese retailer have surged this weekend, from 1,092 RMB to 1,134RMB/g, equivalent to $4,980 to $5,171 per ounce.
Early 5-Day Gains Signal Strong 2026 Market Performance
The first 5 days in 2026 saw stocks up more than 1%. This might seem random, but it is actually one of the more accurate indicators out there. Higher for the year more than 87% of the time and up close...
Tesla Needs Weekly Close Above 417 to Confirm Low
$TSLA - Probably made an intermediate term low last week, after closing the week above the yearly pivot at 387. It needs a weekly close above the 20 week MA(currently at 417) in order to confirm the low and head...
Usage‑Based SaaS Overtakes Seat Model in Valuation
SaaS market has re-rated pricing models. From 2019–2021, seat-based companies earned a valuation premium for predictability. By 2026, that premium has flipped as investors increasingly prefer subscription models tied to usage, output, and AI-driven value creation. Seat-based SaaS traded above other subscription...
Russell 2000 EPS Growth Outpaces S&P 500
18% S&P 500 EPS growth seen this year... just 11% for the S&P 500 EW. But 44% for the Russell 2000. GS https://t.co/ZYTwDJ60Km
Avoiding Recession Leads to Double‑Digit Stock Gains
We never expected a recession this year (including four weeks ago) and history shows that years that are able to avoid a recession see stocks up double digits nearly 7 out of 10 years. https://t.co/k2LDYKyttL
TLT Outperforms USO Tenfold Amid Oil Price Shifts
Is TLT vs. USO a 10x? From the 2018 low to 2020 high, TLT advanced about 10x vs. USO (total return). From the 2008 low to this year's nadir so far, TLT/USO is up about 10x (was up roughly 130x to...
Record Earnings, AI Surge, Dovish Fed Signal Bullish Year
Good time to recall that only 12 times (the dirty dozen) have stocks lost more than double digits during the year and all of them had some very bad things happen. This year we have record earnings and profit margins, AI...
Leverage Small Deals by Turning Sellers Into Banks
"If you owe the bank $100, that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100MM, that's the bank's problem" What people don't realize is that you can create this exact scenario with way less money Let's say you're looking to buy a...
S&P 500's Rare Six‑of‑Eight Day Gap Surge
The S&P 500 has gapped higher in six of the past eight trading days. Going back to 1982, we've only seen that four times before: June-July 2025 January 2025 August-September 2020 January 2018
OptionsHawk Launches Limited-Time MAX Trials Again
OptionsHawk is opening MAX Trials for the next 2-3 weeks for the first time in over a year Figure, heart of earnings season, come take a look at what we do and what we are working on! https://t.co/VFJnxPUmEP
Oil Experts Wrong: Dated Brent Drops $20 Overnight
Most oil "experts" are industry shills. They told us that Dated Brent can't fall because the physical shortage is too great. Well, Dated Brent fell $20 in one day on Friday. The stuff from these guys is just scare-mongering. Same...
Early Bull Run: Only 30% of Market Upswing Completed
From 1989 through 2000, the market (ie $SPY) made 327 new highs. From 2013 through 2022, the market (ie $SPY) made 347 new highs. From 2024 through 2026, the market (ie $SPY) has made 103 new highs. Its possible we're only 30% of...
Top 10 US Firms Hit Record Earnings Share
The 10 largest US companies haven't contributed this much to total earnings in the modern era GS https://t.co/KBJshEbLTw
Intel's Valuation over Doubles Dot‑com Peak
"Intel... now trades for more than 130 times its projected earnings for this year, far above the peak multiple of 60 times that the stock briefly touched during the dot-com bubble." https://t.co/yO388d0820 https://t.co/2HjelEQb7W
Turkey's Record Current‑account Deficit Stems From Domestic Policies
Turkey's in trouble for the same old reason. The current account deficit in Jan & Feb 2026 is the widest ever except for Jan & Feb 2023, when Lira ended up sharply devaluing. Turkey's problems have nothing to do with...
Insiders Bet on Ag Growth at 6x EV/EBITDA
Lots happening at Ag Growth $AFN The shares dropped quite a bit on poor results and the dividend cut. The CFO recently resigned. Shreholder Plantro is publicly pushing the company to launch a full sale process, arguing the company’s latest earnings...
Tech Rebounds as Median S&P Lags Record Highs
This measure shows that the median S&P 500 stock is far below its 52wk high, while the Index is at a record. Practically, it points to major sector rotation in the last 3 weeks, with tech stocks coming storming back.. while...
VSNT Eyeing STRZ Despite Divergent Growth Forecasts
$STRZ Stock ripping lately... CEO incentive comp is old news (Nov 2025) Hmm... VSNT likely acquirer here... they want non-linear revenue streams and STRZ gets 70% of revenue from digital sell-side penciling ~3% EBITDA growth '26-28 for STRZ vs. 12% decline at VSNT https://t.co/kOTAwW2Pc3
Maekawa Report Reveals Why Japan-China Rebalancing Falters
I have often mentioned Japan's 1986 Maekawa Commission Report as a way of understanding why Japan's (and by extension, China's) rebalancing was never going to be easy. For those who might be interested, I asked ChatGPT to summarize the report...
Global Economic Calendar: Key Data Releases This Week
Everyone will be watching the headlines but don't miss this busy global calendar 👇 🇺🇸 US Retail Sales 🇪🇺 EZ -GE ZEW -GE IFO -EZ PMIs -GE PPI 🇬🇧 UK -Jobs -CPI -PMIs -Retail Sales 🇨🇦 CA -CPI & PPI -Retail Sales 🇯🇵 JP CPI 🇳🇿 NZ -Trade -CPI
Nasdaq Surges as Markets Overlook US‑Iran Tensions
My article for the week ahead: Nasdaq and Risk Assets Soar as Markets Ignore US-Iran Questions https://t.co/oj3oTBAvsM https://t.co/XKDWaWJJbx
ECB Should Wait, Not Rush Rate Decisions
ECB better off waiting than rushing into rate action, Demarco says https://t.co/IAAWNv0BDq via @jrandow https://t.co/K09LIzQVbh
Key Geopolitics and Economic Data Shaping Monday Trades
Middle East Ceasefire, US Retail Sales, Global PMIs Join us on Monday at 8:45am ET to dive into everything that will impact your trades 👇 https://t.co/IpQ8H0G5Ss https://t.co/IpQ8H0G5Ss
NASDAQ 100's Top 10 Stocks Surge Over 45% in 2026
Here are the top 10 best performing stocks in the NASDAQ 100 so far in 2026 🥇 Western Digital $WDC +116%🟢 🥈 Seagate $STX +99%🟢 🥉 Intel $INTC +86%🟢 Marvell $MRVL +64%🟢 Monolithic Power $MPWR +62%🟢 Micron $MU +59%🟢 Lam Research $LRCX +56%🟢 Applied Materials $AMAT +54%🟢 ARM Holdings...
Median S&P500 up 3.8%—still Not Impressive
The Median S&P500 stock is up 3.8% so far in 2026. What's wrong with that?
SPY Gap May Fill; DIA Shows Reversal Confirmation
GAP SYNCHRONY Distance vs. Friday Close: SPY: 702.78 (1.3%) RSI 73.5 QQQ: 642.18 (-1.2%) RSI 74.5 DIA: 486.6 (-2.1%) RSI 69 Daily Volume validating reversal candles, mostly on DIA. Healthy consolidation ahead. Will the $686.3 gap be filled for SPY? (-3.7% downside).
Find the Sweet Spot Between Saving and Living
And there in lies what I refer to as the “great balance”. How much to save and how much to spend? I have wrestled with this a lot over the course of the last 16-17 years. And over the last 4-5...
Silence Cost Siblings $1.8 Million in Lost Growth
$1.8 million. Sitting in a joint estate account for 2 years. 3 siblings. One dad, now gone. Nobody at the dinner table wanted to be the one to raise it. So nobody did. Here is what 2 years of silence actually cost them.
India's IOC Logs Second‑largest Weekly Russian Crude Imports
🇮🇳 India’s IOC just recorded the second-highest weekly volume of Russian crude imports ever — only behind the record set in third week of June 2023 https://t.co/slsuYNxtUf
Begin with a Family Mission, Then Build Trusts
Start with a family mission statement. Core values, governance documents, who gets what and when. Once that is in place, the legal structures follow naturally. Trusts are just contract law and the options are wide. Dynasty trusts, spendthrift provisions, three...
Stocks Overvalued, Crypto Slumps Amid Hormuz Tensions
⚠️ S&P 500 hit a RECORD HIGH Friday. BTC bled from $77,957 peak to $75,236 across the weekend. Meanwhile: Iran formally SHUT the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers under fire. US prepping to board Iran-linked ships (WSJ). Something gives in 72 hours. I...