Solar Power Stays Cheap; Oil Prices Soar Dramatically
Solar energy hasnt had a price hike in 4.5 billion years. Meanwhile, oil has shot up over $100/barrel today and will likely set a new record high for a second time in 4 years above $150/barrel.
Strait Closure Spikes Gas Prices, Fuels Global Supply Shortages
The longer the strait remains closed, the more it will roil the global economy and boost gas prices. Multiple countries, including U.S. allies, are reeling from the downturn in energy supply that once flowed freely through the chokepoint. Industries that...
Oversold Positions Drive Extreme Tail Moves in Markets
So this is not to say this setup isn't better than say September, but I can't think of a worse game to play without knowing the entirety of bounds 'Oversolds' and positioning often have their largest moves in the tails...
Organigram's Sanity Deal Boosts EU Reach, Buy Pullback
Macro: Organigram acquires Sanity, expands into EU; Key: 93% vote, BAT financing, 68.6% LTM rev, positive EBITDA; Risks: closing risks, earnout; Trade: buy on pullback — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Bonds Beat Stocks YTD, AGG Shows Small Alpha
YTD... stocks $SPY -7.1% Bonds $AGG -0.2% Not a perfect zig-zag, but certainly some alpha in $AGG https://t.co/IWkDvMCo0x
Only One Nationwide Home Price Crash in 84 Years
There have been many economic cycles, recessions, and rising mortgage rates since 1942. In 84 years, there has only been one national home price crash period. https://t.co/AjoH2agyyy
Tech's Relative Strength Reemerges, Says XLK Veteran
$XLK - I'm old enough to remember the "tech is showing relative strength here crowd" from like two weeks ago. https://t.co/i4FCxx0Mkf
Most Stocks Slump, SPY Barely Down—Favor Index Investing
Lot of people are are down 30-40-50%. But $SPY is still below 10%, hence majority of your investment should be in index.
Down $142K, Still Buying and Holding Long-Term
We are down $142K in our investment portfolio since the beginning of 2026. What are we doing about it?? Continuing to buy more and stay invested for the long term.
WA Iron Ore Mines Face Diesel Crisis in 10 Days
WA’s most labour-intensive iron ore mines could be just 10 days away from diesel supply catastrophe https://t.co/5djcT6LMSY
AmEx Secures NFL Deal, Boosting Revenue Outlook
Macro: AmEx wins NFL payments deal replacing Visa; Key: exclusive card perks, new co‑branded card & international reach; Risk: marketing ROI/FX; Trade: buy AXP on expected revenue lift. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
ASTC Spikes 60x Volume; Trade only on Supply Break
Over 60x relative volume here on $ASTC today, and even with this after-hours fade, I'll keep it on my watchlist for tomorrow... BUT this will only be in play if this breaks over supply as shown below (S/D flip), so NO...
Iran Conflict Triggers Worldwide Fertilizer Crunch, Hikes Food Prices
The war in Iran sparks a global fertilizer shortage and threatens food prices https://t.co/xpr9UOnHTZ via @mySA
Cash on Hand? Time to Buy the Bottom
Well, if you’re sitting on a bunch of cash, now comes the easy part. You just buy the bottom.
Lodging Delinquencies Surge, Driving Overall CMBS Rise
Where’s the next CRE pain point as I warned last year? @TreppWire CMBS Delinquency Rate increased 41 bps to 7.55% in March, reversing Feb’s decline. Lodging posted largest increase, jumping 137 bps to 7.31%, the first time it’s been >7% since...
Trust Your Research, Not Borrowed Judgement
Don’t borrow judgement. The reason why we spend hundreds of hours analyzing a business is to thoroughly understand it. The purpose of the research is to build confidence in our assumptions. The valuation then dictates what the return those assumptions will...
Oversold SPX Signals Potential Bounce, VIX Also Falling
#SPX: Be careful about being too bearish in the short term, as the $VIX also closed in the red. The similarity to 2025 is impressive, especially with the RSI below 30 and the lower Bollinger Band breached; both oversold conditions...
Patience Pays: Years of Average Returns Can Yield Sudden Wealth
The hardest part of achieving a great long-term investment track record is over half the time your returns will look average. You can go years where it feels like you are working hard for mediocre returns. Then all of a...
Blend Investment Philosophies to Sharpen Your Edge
Aswath Damodaran on where your investment philosophy fits in the investment process "Even if you feel that you have an investment philosophy in place, I think being aware of how others approach markets and keeping an open mind, where you borrow...
Mortgage Intent Index Slides, Yet Pending Sales Remain Positive
The Xactus Mortgage Intent Index dipped this week. Three down weeks in a row and below last year now. Xactus is counting credit pulls, so it includes refis. I've found this data to correlate well with the pending sales rate, though...
Semis Break Support, Software Slides, QQQ Near Bottom
"Semis" cracked support of its 4-mth H&S today which i spoke about a bit last week but bears repeating. While $QQQ getting closer to support, this is notable short-term headwind as Software has roundtripped from Feb while $SMH and...
Buy Quality, Not the Deepest Discounts, During Sell‑offs
During sell-offs, people rush into whatever has dropped the most. Down 60%? Must be a deal. But a bad business down 60% is still a bad business. Quality matters more when everything is falling. Buy the companies that will come...
VIX Spikes only During Historic Crises, Signaling Costly Volatility
There has only been a few times in the past 20 years that the Volatility Index ($VIX) has traded at these levels: • 2008 Global Financial Crises 50+ • Covid-19 crash 50+ • U.S.-Iran Conflict 35+ Think of the VIX as a “fear”...
Hot Asset Hype Triggers Overbuilding, Warns Unsophisticated Investors
Exhibit A on why uninformed / unsophisticated investors should stay from investing in industrial real estate. A few years ago I attended a conference where there was a break out panel on cold storage. Everyone on the panel was extremely bullish on...
Sacramento $400‑500K Sales Up 8%, Buyers Benefit
Seeing more sales between $400-500K in the Sacramento region. This is a part of the market that's experiencing volume growth from last year. This speaks to prices dipping and more sales happening in this range (8% more in 2026 so...
Fragile Markets Reward Patient Bears Amid Rising Risks
Fragile Markets For Banks, Bonds & OPEX $XLF $TLT $SPX Shorts on "support" but markets are not safe. Rising #crudeoil, yields, dollar & VIX still reward patient bears. OPEX flows may offer brief stabilization - emphasis on *may*. https://t.co/XIcBupeCGG
Key Reminders for Navigating Scary Moments
People are scared, I’m getting a lot of DMs. Here are some of my thoughts on things people should be remembering at times like these. - Matt
The Real Oil Crisis Is Still Waiting to Begin
Why the Real Oil Crisis Hasn’t Started Yet #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/Ngf3zAyeSS https://t.co/gyEcJO0VT9
Private Credit Stress
Private Credit contagion on top of negative supply shock... Wall St risks directly to affect Main St. Will Bessent do "whatever it takes" to push down long-term MBS rates & govt bond interest expense? QE & rate cuts would be especially inflationary.
Hormuz Closure Sparks Global Energy Crisis Amid Ukraine Strikes
The world is in an energy crisis as Hormuz is closed. Europe and Asia are running out of oil and gas. Meanwhile Ukraine is striking Russian energy infrastructure using EU and U.S. funded weapons. What a retarded timeline.
Special Forces Grounding Diplomacy, Threatening Hormuz Oil Flow
While it’s possible that Iran’s enriched uranium could be secured by a diplomatic deal, most recent discussions have involved special forces’ boots on the ground And boots on the ground is going to seriously complicate efforts to reopen to Strait of...
Buy a Dollar for Fifty Cents with NCAV Investing
"Net current asset value (NCAV) investing is valuation by liquidation logic." What if you could buy $1 for 50 cents? That’s the logic behind NCAV investing, valuing a company as if it were liquidated today.
40‑Day, 5% Pullback Guarantees No Bear Market
Very interesting stat from @StovallCFRA on @CNBCTheExchange with @LesliePicker today. When it takes >40 days for the S&P 500 to have a mild 5% pullback, it has never moved into a bear market. https://t.co/9Yjk8jEYOD
Middle East Jet Fuel Shipments to Europe Nearing Depletion
JET FUEL from Middle East to Europe set to dry up as last cargoes arrive: https://t.co/EBGhhiM04W
Big Tech Endures Historic Three-Day Intraday Decline
Big tech suffered at least a 1% intraday loss for 3 days in a row. That's the fourth such streak in a month. This is tied for the most ever and hasn't happened since the GFC. It's been either really, really good...
Midday Rally Fades as Bond and Gold Risks Rise
Stocks were up on the day when we recorded this midday on Wall St, but growth risk dynamics in bonds and gold suggested they'd struggle to hold up. The S&P 500 gave up gains by day's end, Nasdaq closed down,...
Bank of England Joins Imbalance Club as Asia Surplus Swells
Happy to welcome the Bank of England to the growing club of "imbalancistas" Would just note that if they used the 2025 data rather than the 2024, the return of imbalances would be even more apparent. Asia's surplus went...
Use CLEAR Framework to Uncover True Client Goals
Human beings struggle to set goals, let alone anticipate what will actually make them happier in the long-term… When clients talk about their goals, one challenge for advisors is figuring out what those goals actually mean beneath the surface. Using The...
Extended Scenario Shows Most Likely S&P Low
How low can we go? I built three scenarios. Bull: S&P 6,300+ (25-30%) Base: S&P 5,950-6,300 (45-55%) Extended: S&P 5,600-5,950 (25-35%) Bear: S&P 4,885-5,250 (10-15%) Fibonacci levels. Probability weightings. Historical parallels. The extended case is where I'm spending the most time. https://open.substack.com/pub/dralexkoh/p/how-low-can-we-go
SPY Closes After Morning Strength Sale, New Reference Point Set
$spy post close as the morning strength was sold. We did get a new point of reference https://t.co/1rDzWM0HtZ
America Divided on Taiwan: Elite Consensus Questioned
Ryan Hass On Taiwan: Is America dividing on Taiwan — And implications for Taiwan Is the "elite consensus" accurate? https://t.co/DyOQZXZLmE
S&P Futures Stuck Below Downtrend, Target 6,316
S&P 500 futures can't get out from under the downtrend line. Every bounce gets sold. Measured move target: 6,316. Next stop lower until something changes structurally.
Gold Outperforms, Silver Spikes; Distinct Regimes Emerging
I'd say this is worth revisiting, not bc macro is end all but can't deny gold outperf for year +, then silver spike. Obv tail end was robinhood type but the ROC would have still triggered. Low N but uniquely...
War in Middle East Drives Inflation and Slower Growth
A stark message from the IMF: "Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth." https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/03/30/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-is-affecting-energy-trade-and-finance #economy #markets #growth #inflation @the_imf
Oil Surge Fuels Bearish Shift Amid Fed Uncertainty
Back to the market. Oil is surging, volatility is expanding, and sentiment is quickly turning bearish—that’s your first clue. When fear spreads wildly, you have to start thinking contrary. But let’s be clear: Powell has signaled he’s on hold until...
Build Financial Peace with Funds, Skills, and Planning
My financial peace toolkit: - emergency fund - transferable skills for income “stability” - clear short and long-term funds
Regulatory Relief Cuts Costs, FMKT Offers Targeted Exposure
The Free Markets ETF ( $FMKT ) finished at $20.31 today, down 0.15%. Research shows companies experiencing regulatory relief often see significant decreases in compliance costs. $FMKT gives you targeted exposure to this powerful economic catalyst. https://t.co/Due0P8pr4a
Energy Markets Under Pressure: Supply Bottlenecks and Rising Costs
🌳Saudi Exports, Houthis, and the Bab el Mandeb Bottleneck 🌳Russia LNG Exports Set to Hit Record High Egypt’s Challenges: Typical of Every Developing Country 🌳Shipping Rates Are Up Again – Here’s Why King Coal: For How Long? 🌳EU Oil and Gas Pinch: The Never-Ending Crisis 🌳Cuba...
Data Shows Downside Risk Despite Bottom‑Seeking Optimism
$SPY - With data - you find what you look for...many are looking for "the bottom is close" and "this is capitulation" so they are finding it (SHOCKING). But PLENTY of data is saying we have plenty of room to...
Watch if France, Japan, UK Echo US Yield Drop
As we monitor global bond markets, please keep an eye on whether France, Japan, and the UK mimic the retreat in US yields. The three G7 markets have already faced pressure from bond vigilantes since 2022. Whether they follow the US lead...