Social•Feb 14, 2026
China's Railway Investment Climbs 5.5% in January
Xinhua: "China's railway sector completed 46.3 billion yuan (about 6.67 billion U.S. dollars) in fixed-asset investment in January, up 5.5 percent year on year." https://t.co/g109GF2REm
By Michael Pettis
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Malaysia Beats Forecast, Yet MSMEs Face Headwinds
Malaysia’s Economic Outlook & Risks Full-year performance exceeds government’s upper ceiling based on 4Q 2025 data Outperformance —► Hawkish BNM bias. Chatter of tougher operating conditions on the ground, especially for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) including F&B sector are leading many...
By David Chuah
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China’s Inbound FDI Collapses as Outbound Investment Soars
For years, the world invested in China. Since 2022, foreign direct investment inflows to China have PLUNGED, while China's foreign investment outflows have SURGED. https://t.co/TCWhEPF7bq
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Disinflation Relief Meets Market Disruption Fear
CPI cools to 2.4%. Yields fall 18bps. S&P 500 posts its worst week since November. If inflation is easing… why aren’t stocks cheering? The market isn’t repricing rates. It’s repricing disruption. Disinflation Relief, Disruption Fear 👇 https://t.co/JM3yRs0tFM
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 14, 2026
China EV Sales Dip, Exports Surge 70% Abroad
China EV Sales Drop for First Time Since February 2024—Chinese exports of EVs and hybrids rise 70% in 2025 as automakers shift their focus overseas @ivy_jiahuihuang https://t.co/PdiFmEGPXg https://t.co/PdiFmEGPXg
By Jonathan Cheng
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Yield Drop Signals Benign CPI, Boosts Gold Prices
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) fell sharply at 8:30 am today, a sign markets think today's CPI was benign and so the Fed cuts more. Bloomberg's XAU/$ gold price (white) rose around the same time, which is consistent with that...
By Robin Brooks
Social•Feb 13, 2026
No Bullish Catalyst for Oil in 2026, Repeat Likely
🚦From a pure fundamentals perspective, there's simply no bullish driver in sight capable of pushing oil prices into the high $70s—or higher—in 2026. ⚽️Betting your capital on a major war with Iran or any similar geopolitical shock to spike prices isn't...
By Anas Alhajji
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Defensive Sectors Lead as Market Turns Bearish
Defensive rotation continues. Utilities and real estate led again, $VIX closed above 20, and my short-term trend model flipped bearish. I also answered questions on holding through earnings ($MAR), #Bitcoin correlation, and what makes a trader great. Watch here: https://t.co/dJtLYZYHoz
By David Keller, CMT
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Inverted Head‑Shoulders Pattern Shows 61% Success Rate
This classical pattern is called a continuation inverted head and shoulders. This is one of the most reliable patterns with a success rate of 61%, of which 43% travel to the target with minimum interruption. $CME @TechCharts #probabilities matter in...
By Peter Brandt
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Kuwait Lags UAE in Oil Capacity, Faces $90.5 Break‑Even
Kuwait's production capacity was ahead of the UAE's in 2010. Now it is 3.2 Mbpd versus 4.85 Mbpd Budget break-even is $90.5 per bbl and oil is 83% of the budget https://t.co/1si82Sc7pF
By Robin Mills
Social•Feb 13, 2026
China’s $1.2 T Surplus Fuels Massive Market Interventions
One by product of China's exploding external surplus (goods surplus of $1.2 trillion, q4 current account surplus annualized is close to $1 trillion) is that it creates the raw material for some massive intervention numbers h/t @Mike_Weilandt for the chart https://t.co/PMvhatfgWh
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Money Managers Near Record Soybean Futures Buying on US‑China Optimism
📈Money managers staged a near record buying spree in CBOT soybean futures & options in the week ended Feb. 10 on renewed U.S.-China optimism. New net long = 123,148 contracts. Net buying of 94k contracts was the second most for any...
By Karen Braun
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Biggest Stocks Push S&P 500 Margin to Record 12.6%
"The exceptional profitability of the largest stocks boosted the aggregate S&P 500 profit margin to a new record high of 12.6% in 4Q" - Goldman https://t.co/5fnYCaoDhm
By Gunjan Banerji
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Visa's TSR Mirrors Earnings Growth, P/E Stays Flat
Visa total return the last decade or so basically all earnings growth; P/E unchanged while change in EPS estimates roughly equal TSR https://t.co/wYh3Mkz7Aq
By Lawrence Hamtil
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Ford Faces $900M Tariff Blow, Highlighting US Corporate Pain
Ford just disclosed an additional $900M tariff hit in its Q4 results. TARIFFS = BAD NEWS FOR AMERICAN CORPORATIONS. https://t.co/kau61WOizz
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Services Inflation Sticks While Housing Disinflation Persists
Closing out the week with @GregDaco and @ElizRosner talking about inflation: "On the latest episode of The Inflation Brief from ECON-versations with NABE, hosts Greg Daco and Laura Rosner-Warburton are joined by special guest Claudia Sahm to break down the...
By Claudia Sahm
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Argentina's Survival Hinges on IMF Loans, Not Reserves
And net reserves are still negative -- Argentina survived 2025 thanks to a $14b loan from the IMF and a willingness on the part of the IMF and the US to ignored missed reserve targets. Indeed, Argentina got another $20b backstop...
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Broadening Value and Cyclical Rotation Driven by Fundamentals
We now have the longest and strongest breadth rotation in recent years. Notably, it’s the only rotation that has been propelled by broader macro and micro fundamentals rather than lower rates. We first recommended a broadening trade of value and...
By Michael Kantro
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Crude Swings on Hormuz Alert, US‑Iran Talks, Venezuela Relief
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈📉Crude prices rise on Hormuz advisory before falling back on the prospect of longer US-Iran talks, with headlines dotted with a flurry of US sanctions relief on Venezuela’s oil sector. Summary below, link to full report in...
By Rory Johnston
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Capital Shifts to Value: Cash Flow Beats Future Promises
Leadership didn’t vanish; it rotated. Capital moved from high-growth tech into value, dividends, and economically sensitive sectors. When rates stay higher and scrutiny rises, cash flow today beats promises tomorrow. Style matters again.
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 13, 2026
BOE's Pill: Rates Slightly Too Low, Should Stay
BOE’s Pill says interest rates are ‘a little too low’ and should be held https://t.co/wMBsLKECUz via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/axOKBgzYCV
By Zöe Schneeweiss
Social•Feb 13, 2026
SPY Likely Drops Below $670 Before Hitting $690
Some ask. What do I think next week. The next ten $spy points. I’d say below $670 before above $690
By Scott Redler
Social•Feb 13, 2026
China's Massive Surplus Threatens IMF Balance
China's reported current account surplus for q4 was $242b (close to $1 trillion annualized), and the 2025 surplus was $735b -- well over 3.5% of China's GDP. This has big implications for the IMF, for Secretary Bessent and and the world...
By Brad Setser
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Germany Mulls Debt Brake Exemption for Raw Materials Fund
Germany weighs debt brake exemption to boost raw materials fund https://t.co/lsvcwd09Y5 via @mcnienaber @ocrook https://t.co/wmKMMM7Dgu
By Zöe Schneeweiss
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Old Leaders Fade; Adapt Fast to New Trading Landscape
The leaders of last year are no longer the favorites. The trading landscape is changing, and you have to adapt quickly to keep an edge.
By Hyperstocks
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Steel Stock SLX Surges: Rare Early Buying Opportunity
Helpful context. Your competitors completely missed this epic Cyclical ramp in the Steel Stocks $SLX and today's one of our 1st Buying Opportunities in a while
By Keith McCullough
Social•Feb 13, 2026
S&P 500 Mirrors US M2‑to‑GDP Ratio Trends
There's a general and logical correlation between money supply and capital markets. But what about money supply relative to GDP? Here's $SPX overlaid with the ratio of US M2 / real GDP: https://t.co/UA5X14bWEk
By John Kicklighter
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Investors Choose Safe Bonds, Accepting Low Real Returns
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
BDC Quarterly Letters: Refusing Write‑Downs, Defying Pressure
Every BDC quarterly letter should just say “we are choosing not to mark this down and you can’t make us.”
By JunkBondInvestor
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Signal Strength Recommends Holding Nucor Stock
Sam @SamofAmerica , Signal Strength says to stay with Nucor $NUE here. What say you?
By Keith McCullough
Social•Feb 13, 2026
DWSH Slides 1.3% as Borrowing Costs
Drosey Wrong $DWSH down another -1.3% and they're trying to jack up the borrow, sad
By Keith McCullough
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Professional Energy Bet After Yesterday’s Red Close
If you were buying more Energy Exposure via $XOP $OIH into a red close 24 hours ago, professionally done
By Keith McCullough
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Lenders Cut Ties on Deeply Underwater Properties
Valuations are dropping fast. If a deal isn’t performing, lenders try to save it to avoid losses. But when a property is too far underwater, there’s simply no reason to keep the original owner involved. #RealEstate #Finance #cashflowisking
By Ken McElroy
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Market Rally Likely False Amid Risk‑off Sentiment
I believe this is a false rally. Look at Utilities. That's defensive positioning. Same with long duration Treasuries. We remain in a risk-off condition for now.
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 13, 2026
SaaS Still Thriving: Mispriced Narrative, Not Collapse
“Software is dead.” That’s the narrative. Revenue isn’t collapsing. Balance sheets aren’t broken. The Fed isn’t tightening. AI disruption… or mispricing? The setup in large-cap SaaS may be asymmetric. Read: https://t.co/dhUDCqMzbs
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Defensive Sectors Exhausted, Market Poised for Broad Correction
While sectors like staples (XLP), energy (XLE), materials (XLB) and industrials (XLI) have all provided a safe haven in recent weeks as large cap tech has sucked wind, most of these are all now reaching exhaustion. This means that from...
By Quinn Thompson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
CPI Slowdown Fuels Falling Yields, Bullish Duration, Utilities, Gold
Post Hedgeye's Nowcast nailing another decel in CPI Growth decelerates → yields fall → correlations re-assert That’s the whole #Quad3 playbook ✔️ Duration bullish ✔️ Utilities work ✔️ Gold works ❌ Financials don’t
By Keith McCullough
Social•Feb 13, 2026
PLTR Near $120 May Offer Counter‑Trend Bounce
$PLTR not my style to buy dips after big breakdowns, but would have attractiveness from counter-trend perspective near 120 into Monday-Wed of next week. @IBDinvestors @marketsurge NEW charts link https://t.co/XW54gpkuMU Note that 4/7/25-11/3/25 rally of 210 cal. days...
By Mark Newton, CMT
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Danny Moses Show Returns: Economy, AI, Markets Forecast
The Danny Moses Show returns tonight @scrippsnews at 7PM sponsored by @Kalshi. Great to have @pboockvar join me & we talk about the global & U.S. economy, A.I. stocks/bonds, commodities, the consumer, #FED, Private Credit & make some @Kalshi predictions... https://t.co/vQGLUQMHUc...
By Danny Moses
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Markets Trade Transition as Central Banks Hold Steady
Pauses aren’t pivots. Central banks are holding steady, but easing remains conditional. Inflation is cooler, labor is softer, yet not weak enough to confirm a recession. Markets are trading the transition, not the destination.
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Notable Absentees Among Firms Granted Venezuelan Upstream Access
Can't help but notice who ISN'T on this list of companies who just gained access to invest and operate in Venezuelan upstream. https://t.co/qrLcy4bd48
By Rory Johnston
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Argus Targets Venezuelan Crude for U.S. Gulf Delivery
This is an interesting oil market transparency development. Argus "will assess three grades of Venezuelan crude oil, Merey, Hamaca and Boscan, for delivery to the U.S. Gulf coast, which Argus said is now the most likely destination for Venezuelan cargoes" https://t.co/RaKzvH53Rp
By Rory Johnston
Social•Feb 13, 2026
China Backs Struggling Cuba Amid Looming US Showdown
As Cuba teeters on the brink of economic disaster, China promises continued support. It looks like a SHOWDOWN between the US & China might be in the cards. https://t.co/rb7Qf0CdN2
By Steve Hanke
Social•Feb 13, 2026
High ROE Fuels Rapid Book Growth and Higher Valuations
"We have shown over the past couple of years that Return-on-Equity readings for companies are very high, and very supportive of equity prices as the high ROE promotes rapid growth of corporate book value, and consequently higher market valuations." -...
By Sam Ro
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Labor Holds, Inflation Cools, Yen Soars Amid Crosscurrents
Resilient labor. Cooling inflation. Duration rallying. Yen surging. 130K jobs. CPI at 2.4%. 10Y yields sliding. Dollar down on the week. This isn’t a clean cycle — it’s macro crosscurrents. Full breakdown: https://t.co/vNAZw80IbE
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Assume BRICS' USD‑bypass Plans Are Real; Doubt USD Stability
Remember, every utterance from BRICS & Global South regarding potential new system to bypass USD is to be treated as if already operational & making material difference. And every piece of evidence that USD system isnt going anywhere is to be...
By Brent Johnson
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Last Year's Job Growth Fell Below a Single Biden Month
“.. we had less job growth all of last year than we had in an average month during the Biden administration.”
By Carl Quintanilla
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Brent Option Skew Halves, Signaling Lower Iran Risk
Brent crude option skew—which many have been treating as a proxy of oil market Iran risk perception (see comp to June 2025)—continues to deflate. Down more than half from a week ago, with prices down ~$3/bbl from Wednesday high. Gives a sense...
By Rory Johnston
Social•Feb 13, 2026
CENX Forms Classic Broadening Top, Echoing 1929 Pattern
The share price of $CENX is forming a classic broadening top pattern, similar to the famous 1929 chart of Air Reduction Corp. https://t.co/2CLb8yjOP6
By Peter Brandt
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Singapore Light Distillate Stocks Surge to Record Levels
Singaporean light distillate (eg gasoline/naphtha) inventories are *very* high right now. (seasonal chart, million barrels) https://t.co/ZgYbX7ZU9F
By Rory Johnston