BlackRock Rewrites 60/40: Add Alternatives, Benchmark Cash
so blackrock is making a strong push that the new 60/40 is actually 60% stocks / 20% bonds / 20% alternatives. and how does blackrock want to benchmark it? 60% stocks / 20% bonds / 20% cash. convenient way to generate "alpha" when your alts should do cash + 300bp over time.
AIM Up Candle Faces Bearish EMA, Neutral RSI
#AIM All Share big Up Candle. Resistance 782, 800, 820. Support 741, 726, 700. RSI 48 near Neutral. 13/21 day EMAs Bearish. Top Bollinger Band 760. Midpoint Line 727. Bottom Band 693.
Margin of Safety Means Earnings, Low Debt, Not Price
Ben Graham didn't just want cheap stocks. He wanted cheap stocks that could survive being wrong. That's the part most value investors skip — two conditions, not one: earnings must cover the downside, and debt must stay low enough to survive it. Margin...
Nasdaq Faces Comp Gap, Near 50‑Day MA Resistance
#Nasdaq Comp Gap up and small Down Candle. Closed on 50 day MA Line. Resistance 23320, ATH 24020. Support 22000, 21371. RSI 54 near Neutral. 13/21 day EMAs Bearish but Lines converging. On verge 8/21 Bull Cross. Top Bollinger Band...
Offering Seed Funding for Offensive Cyber Startup via Signal
If anyone at Anthropic would like to build an offensive cyber company I will write you a seed term sheet pls find me on Signal
GCC U.S. Investments Threatened by Iran War Cash Cuts
Are foreign investments by GCC countries into the U.S. market compromised as cash flows continue to be cut off by the war in Iran? Watch my entire interview with @JayMartinBC here ➡️ https://t.co/0whdPPs6jQ #iranwar #economy #geopolitics https://t.co/pFuTmXYj79
Brent and WTI Plunge yet Stay Well Above Pre‑war Levels
Price Signal: large decline of 16.75 in Brent & 18% in WTI perfectly captures volatility that has characterized energy and commodity prices since the start of the war. That being said Brent is still 25.7% & WTI 38.3% above pre...
Direct Indexing Auto‑harvests Losses While Matching Market Returns
One of the best financial moves I've made recently was switching from investing in index funds to direct indexing Markets have been choppy, direct indexing has harvested a ton of losses for me on autopilot All while tracking the same performance as...
EQAL ETF Approaches All‑Time High
Believe it or not, but the average US stock ETF $EQAL is very close to an all-time high https://t.co/TYbu1dA6fR
Leveraged ETFs Trigger $18B Inelastic Buying
Classic all day stall. In aggregate 18BN got bought completely inelastically simply because leveraged ETF's rebalanced. Enough buy demand to sustain the gap.
S&P's 6% Six-Day Rally Raises One-Year Return Odds to 81%
This is now a powerful "triple six" rally. The S&P rallied 6% in 6 days from a 6-month low. It failed in 2001 and was painful in 2008. But otherwise, excellent one-year returns. It bumped up the probability of a positive one-year return...
Correlation Hype Ignores that Alternatives Are Just More Equity
One of the dumber things you hear lately, from a lot of supposedly non-dumb people, is “stocks and bonds are now trading positively correlated so you now desperately need this other investment that’s way way more correlated with stocks than...
Software Slumps While Emerging Markets Rally Strongly
Software a little sore today.. $PLTR off big. $TSLA lags among mega caps. $SMH +5.6%.. $EWY +9.7%... $EEM +5.3% https://t.co/Ax62G8RLpM
Overnight Volatility Fades, S&P Climbs 2.
An exciting overnight, but a snoozer daytime session... narrow S&P 500 range... +2.4% into the close @stockcharts https://t.co/LNYfv0dbGY
2‑Year Yield Near Historic Tightness at +0.14%
The 2yr yield is currently just 14bps above the Fed Funds Rate That's historically tight - it has averaged +0.3ppts since 1976 @sonusvarghese https://t.co/lbr63DqekD
Buffett's AI Stock Rule: Moat First, Price Second
Which stocks should we buy amid the AI disruption? Buffett would do the following (the order is critical) 1. Does the company have an enduring moat so it will be around in 10 years? 2. Is the price reasonable? If a company...
Software Stocks Squeezed as Tesla
$TSLA $PLTR $APP used this gap for liquidity HARD - and software is getting smoked again w/ pressure.
Stay‑at‑home Moms Need Tailored Retirement Planning, Not Assumptions
Mind you — she left work to raise their babies (1 & 3). No income. No plan for her old 401(k)… and her old financial advisor didn’t even set up a spousal IRA. No rollover or nothing. Jesus. So we got to...
Ceasefire Crumbles, Oil Profits Surge, War Resumes
Here’s how this goes: ceasefire collapses in 24-48 hours — as it basically already has — people make billions on oil swinging 16% in a day, the U.S. re-arms and this whole situation is back to square one in less...
Fed Chair Choice Won’t Drive Mortgage Rates, Here’s Why
I've heard from Redfin agents that some homebuyers are waiting for President Trump's pick for Fed Chair to lower mortgage rates before they buy. In this video I explain where that logic goes wrong and what actually moves mortgage rates: https://t.co/x7Qk1wyckH
Most Homes Sell Off the List Price, Often Lower
Sellers, don't get stuck on the original list price. Be willing to budge. Most of the time, you'll either go higher or lower (greater chance of lower today). When looking at a dozen counties, here is the % of homes...
Rare SPY DMA Breach Foreshadows 13‑16%
BTIG, with a “bearish stat”: “.. Since 2003, SPY has opened above both its 50 and 200 DMA while closing below both the day prior just three other times .. “.. Those three periods saw immediate declines of -13%, -16%, and -13%...
Software Leads, Growth Falters, Confirming Market Peak
Growth had turned down sharply vs. Value last October while Software had gotten a headstart on the recent turbulence throughout March. This breakdown in R3k breadth was one of many things that gave a pretty clear signal into late...
WTI and Dollar Set for Sharp Drop, Rebound Looms
There were quite a number of factors that suggested WTI and the US Dollar were on the verge of a big plunge which coupled with recent market breadth improvement & cyclical low possibilities in early April, pointed to a rebound...
Prefer Long XLP Over Volatile Bounces, Says Carter Worth
"I'd rather be long this than the other things that have had impetuous bounces and that are likely to have to give back some or all of the bounce." 🎙️ @CarterBWorth gives his $XLP take on MRKT Call with @GuyAdami https://t.co/rV5CrDFynU
Fast Oil Rallies Can Unwind Quickly, Watch Profit Taking
$OXY didn’t rally by accident… it rode the wave 🌊 Elevated oil prices + geopolitical tension = fuel for a massive move. But now? $USOIL just dropped -12% $OXY still sitting +53% YTD That disconnect doesn’t last forever. Smart money knows: What goes up fast… can unwind...
Pick the Highest‑Yield ETF for Lifetime Income
Yearly dividend income with $1,000,000 invested: - QQQ: $4,800 - VOO: $11,800 - SCHD: $34,500 - JEPI: $84,500 - SPYI: $123,600 - QQQI: $148,000 If you could only buy 1 of these ETFs forever, which one are you buying?
Letting Gap‑Up
Trading no green to red and have some names that had nice gap ups so put many into let it ride with a variety of stops.
Buy Intraday at Higher Price to Confirm Trade Levels
Better process thought: sometimes (when an immediate-term TRADE Level needs to confirm) its better to buy it intraday at a higher price. I'll explain that on The Macro Show tomorrow if you want to ask a question about it, Peter
Semiconductor Equipment Stocks Rebound After Brief SOX Dip
FormFactor $FORM joins a number of Semis & Semi-Cap Eqpt stocks which have begun to strengthen again meaningfully after $SOX recent breakdown attempt proved short-lived. @marketsurge @IBDinvestors charts found here: https://t.co/vmgJqlzgJC https://t.co/2E6uI606EH
North Chicago Bidding Wars Lift Prices $60K Above Ask
Insane price wars on N side of #Chicago, as competition pushes prices 6 figures over ask in nabes like #LincolnPark #Lakeview #WickerPark. Avg premium rose $60Gs #realestate #mortgage #https://therealdeal.com/chicago/2026/04/08/chicago-north-side-bidding-wars-push-prices-up/
Fed Minutes Reveal Split on Iran Risk, Lean Toward Hikes
March's Fed minutes show broad support for a patient approach to forthcoming rate decisions, but splintering views over what the biggest risk from the Iran war will be. A vast majority of policymakers now expect slower progress toward the 2%...
Tech Firms Skip Middle East, Boost Latin America Data Hubs
Outstanding day for LatAm today. War ending or not… one thing seems highly likely: None of the major tech companies will go out of their way to allocate capital toward building new data centers or large-scale facilities in the Middle East anytime...
Mortgage Spread Holds Near 6%, Avoids 7% Spike
It could have been much worse today, but closer to 6% than above 7%, hug a #mortgage spread. #realestate #housing #economics #chartdaddy
Ceasefire Headlines Barely Dent Market; Futures Stay Strong
A day filled with headlines about the ceasefire being violated, not holding, etc. has had almost no impact on stock prices. Futures still way up on the day. https://t.co/6JyGWIaWcl
Middle East Turmoil Could Slash Oil Demand by 20%
Seismic shift in energy markets? Here's what international consultants Wood Mackenzie had to say: "Middle East disruption could cut global oil demand 20% and gas 10% by 2050 as energy security drives shift to independence." Asia is electrifying. Get over it, Alberta.
Fed Sees Slower Inflation Progress Amid Tariffs, Oil, Fragile Expectations
The Fed minutes showed "the vast majority" of officials thought inflation progress could be slower than expected, driven by three overlapping concerns: tariff effects on goods prices that may take longer to fade, oil prices bleeding into core inflation, and...
2026 Market Forecast Jumps $200B, Extending ROIC Horizons
It is wild that about two months ago, consensus memory in dollars for 2026 was ~$600B and now people are saying north of $800B... Very challenging to square this with ROIC timelines now, as they will have to lengthen, and...
AA DIP Tranche Hits QofE, Global Refi Begins
The year is June 2027. First Brands’ new money ultra-priority DIP Tranche AA just traded down to 50 cents. Great news though - the QofE just hit. Finally, the global refi can commence.
Yield Curve Flip Signals Growth Risks Amid Fed Tightness
10Y–2Y yield curve keeps grinding lower, but the type of flattening has shifted from “bear” (short rates up) to “bull” (long rates getting bid). That suggests the bond market is growing more cautious about US economic growth, while the Fed...
US Vice President Vance Leads First US‑Iran Talks in Islamabad
The first round of US-Iran talks will take place Saturday in Islamabad, with the US negotiating team led by Vice President JD Vance, the White House said.
Rare Streak: S&P 500 3%+ Weekly Gains
Just in case... How many times has the S&P 500 gained 3% or more in consecutive trading weeks? Fascinating number of April's here, especially if 04/10/2026 gets added to the list. $spx 10/28/2022 5/29/2020 4/17/2020 ...
ADW Capital Presses CODI Liquidation, Targets $26 Share
$CODI is a collection of crown jewels trapped in a fee-mining structure. SOTP lands at ~$12/share vs. the stock at ~$9.6/share. If corporate overhead is eliminated, liquidation value could reach ~$26/share. That’s what ADW Capital is now pushing for: a full piecemeal liquidation. The...
U.S. Paid Gym Market Poised for Robust Growth
U.S. Fitness / Paid Gym Membership market data From Planet Fitness' November 2025 Investor Day https://t.co/onnyTp4pYC
Escalating Middle East Conflict Ignored by Markets
Ok let's review, Strait is back to closed, Israel is bombing Tehran and Lebanon, Iran is drone bombing Kuwait/Saudi pipelines/UAE, they are threatening to cancel Friday's meeting and the markets couldn't care less.
Rising VIX Triggers New SPY and QQQ Short Positions
@thestreetpro Wed, Apr 8 at 1:22 PM Initiating Index shorts: * $SPY $676.06 * $QQQ $607.33 I am keying my short entry points on the action of the VIX - which is now at 21.25 more than +$1 from the day's low of 19.99 (and...
Oil Prices Rise Despite Ceasefire Expectations
Thought I was a hero getting out of Dec oil yesterday after the ceasefire headlines. Nope. It's higher
Macro Data Deluge Competes with US‑Iran Tensions
Next week's macro docket is nuts. The IMF will update its WEO; China Q1 GDP; Bank earnings start and the Fed Beige Book will inform the Apr 29 FOMC decision (among other many other listings). Are we going to be...
AI Surge, Mega IPOs Highlight U.S. Economic Resilience
🆓 Wednesday links: mega IPO index inclusion, ramping up AI's impact, and the resilience of the American economy. https://t.co/2rISt9cBqB chart: https://t.co/A1bsjGCgt0 https://t.co/VvptTczGDp
My Theories Prove Right: Calls Gap up, Hold Key Levels
While they arguing my theories…every call on my board gapped up & now holding key levels🤷🏾♂️