April Record Highs Guarantee Positive Yearly Returns
Here's a fun, random, stat I've teased. Since 1960 (or even 1950), when the S&P 500 closes the month of April at a new all-time high monthly close, the remainder of the calendar years performance has never been negative. A perfect 17 for 17 for average returns of 10.35%. $spx https://t.co/wtdHqsqf5N
USDCAD Slides to Critical Support, Inflection Risk Looms
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Plunges to Key Support- Inflection Risk Builds https://t.co/LSQyqXWiUm $USDCAD Weekly Chart https://t.co/PN82OfQcjl
Earnings Power Drives Market to New Highs Amid Conflict
Why didn't the stock market fall further in the face of a war in the Middle East and an oil price spike? Why are we already back at new all-time highs? In a word -- earnings https://t.co/qfWzRKurxU https://t.co/2MrOBldvIL
Silver Signals Surge Toward $150‑$200 Target
Every so often a market provides a tell as to the path it will take. Silver may be providing just such a tell. I have shared with Factor Members the path I believe Silver will take on its way to...
Patience Beats FOMO: Wait for Confirmation Before QCOM Call
The feminine urge to YOLO into $QCOM 160C right before earnings… while it’s sitting perfectly on support 😮💨📈 This is where discipline gets tested. This is where patience gets expensive. Do you trust the level… or wait for confirmation? 👀 Because one move turns...
Stress‑Free Investing Redefined in New Book Release
I'm very pleased to announce that my new book, THE AWESOME PORTFOLIO, will be released on September 8th, 2026. It's a stress-free approach to investing, and it blows to smithereens the conventional wisdom about saving for retirement. Pre-order here: https://t.co/2ADIy8Jfh7
Mega Caps Dominate Again, Narrowing Market Breadth
We have seen a violent return to concentrated, large cap dominance since the start of this month (the little tick down at the end of the series). The chart is equal weight vs market cap: Rising ratio → the average...
Trump’s Spirit Deal Sets New Restructuring Playbook
Trump's offer for Spirit: $500M 1L loan, 90% of the equity via warrants. Bondholders fighting over the leftover 10%. This is the new restructuring playbook.
Inflation Eats Savings; Invest to Preserve Wealth
$100k today is worth the same as: - $82k in 2021 - $73k in 2016 - $68k in 2011 - $61k in 2006 - $54k in 2001 "Saving" is an oxymoron... So here's the easiest (and safest) way to invest your money:
High GRR Shields Value Even as NDR Drops
While "cost containment" can shrink Net Dollar Retention (NDR) if upsells go way down and that does affect terminal value. BUT... ...there's a limit to how much terminal value can be eroded from software if Gross Revenue Retention (GRR) remain extremely...
UAE's OPEC Exit Signals Broader Regional Power Struggle
uae is withdrawing from opec. what looks like energy politics is something deeper. a fight over the region’s future. @gzeromedia.com
Inflation Steals Value; Invest to Protect Wealth
Inflation is the tax that nobody votes for. The government prints money... Banks lend it out... And 25 years, every dollar you own is worth 46% less 😬 The ONLY solution is investing, and this is the easiest way to get started 😉 Share this...
Kharg Island: Predictable Choke Point in Iran's Oil Exports
Controlling Iranian oil exports was a foreseeable base case strategy (see video below). Discussing the war’s surprises and investment ideas at 2pm on @cnbc with @SullyCNBC and @KellyCNBC @vaneck_us @matthew_sigel Kharg Island is a 'choke point' for Iran's oil...
AMD Slides 9% as OpenAI Misses Revenue Targets
AMD just gave back 9.4% in two sessions, from Friday's $352.99 all-time high to $319.97 this morning. The trigger wasn't AMD itself. It was a Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI quietly missed its own revenue and weekly-active-user targets, and...
2026‑27 RVOs Drive Critical D4 RIN Generation Requirements
1. TH and I are out with a new FDD on the implications of the 2026 and 2027 RVOs for required D4 RIN generation. I know that is a mouthful. But the question is a critical one...
Build an Algo Trading Hedge Fund in Six Minutes
This guy literally explains how to build an algorithmic trading hedge fund from scratch in under 6 minutes. This is crazy:
U.S. Home Prices Edge Higher, Up 0.7
U.S. single-family home prices rose 0.3% month-over-month without seasonal adjustment between the January 2026 to February 2026 print Year-over-year: +0.7% Since March 2020: +52.1% Since 2022's peak: +6.2% Table via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/swLLdluSbF
Trade Only During Two Daily Market Intent Windows
Kill Zone vs. Power Zone - Timing Matters What’s your best time to trade? https://t.co/uOQ470gt4b
First‑Gen Accountant Shares 7 Money Lessons From 20s
7 MONEY TRUTHS I LEARNED IN MY 20s, As a 29-year old 1st gen Chartered Accountant:
Renewables Cut Spain’s Wholesale Power Prices by 40%
Quoted in @guardian: A year ago Spain's grid collapsed. Solar was blamed, return to fossil predicted. Investigations found voltage failures. Then Hormuz closed. Spain was shielded as renewables cut wholesale prices by 40%. https://t.co/O5YBLqWtCI
Cap-Weighted Index Outpaces Equal-Weighted, Still Below Jan Highs
While the rally from the March 30th low has been fairly uniform in absolute terms, the cap-weighted index has dominated the equal-weighted index, which remains below its January highs. https://t.co/IIplljdzDN
Gold Breaks Key Fib Levels, Needs Fundamental Push
A clean technical breakdown from gold - clearing a couple of overlapping fib levels around 4,675/55. Looks similar to that Feb-March H&S breakdown, but we'll need some fundamental charge to render the same kind of follow through... https://t.co/LB6GtFfSVL
Tech AI Fuels S&P Highs as Breadth Stays Modest
For the markets, last week was more of the same, with strong momentum in the tech/AI space propelling the market away from concerns about oil shortages as the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly shut. Per the heat map below, the...
Top 10 US Firms Hold >40% of S&P 500
10 largest US companies back > 40% of total S&P 500 market cap @augurinfinity https://t.co/yyCg7bayuE
OPEC Nations Routinely Exceed Production Limits, Critics Overlook
People are out here acting like every single OPEC member didn't constantly exceed production/export limits every single day.
SPY RSI Negative Divergence Signals Need for Basing
$SPY RSI negative D kicking in today with the gap down. Lots of levels of support below. Basing needed to unwind. First level I am watching is the 10ema and April 16 close. Basing needed and chop chop...
UAE Exits OPEC to Boost Production, Accept Lower Prices
REACTION COLUMN: Why is the UAE leaving OPEC? The announcement has little to do with the US-Iran war; the exit road started in Riyadh, with a detour in Texas. It's all about the UAE wanting to pump more oil, even at the...
ECB Inaction Could Erode Short‑term Euro Bond Yields
If the ECB does not deliver the almost 70 basis points, or 0.7 percentage points, of rate hikes that markets expect this year, the current yields on short-term European government bonds may not stick around https://t.co/QLIVYNAWdI https://t.co/Te5FjKUzWR
Gold Selloff Hits Key Levels, Signals Larger Market Shift
Short video update on the #Gold levels Gold Selloff Tests Critical Levels As Traders Brace For Bigger Market Shift https://t.co/rnTz0WpF40 On YouTube: https://t.co/q5Cz7Q2RUx
Historical 10‑Year Growth ~6%—Most DCFs Overestimate
Most 10-year DCF models assume sustained double-digit growth. Historical base rates suggest a different reality. 📉 For the typical Russell 3000 company (1984-2020), the median 10-year sales growth is just 6.2%. Even in Tech, that median drops to 7.2%. If your "conservative"...
OpenAI IPO Delay Pulls Oracle, Nvidia Lower
As @OpenAI says that they are falling short of their IPO plans, OpenAI contagion drags tech stocks down, especially the ones which are heavily intermingled with it. @Oracle is down 4%, @nvidia is lower by 3.5%.
Interactive Brokers Now Offers Korean Stocks, Boosting Coverage
The rumor is true: you can now buy Korean stocks via Interactive Brokers. I'll therefore ramp up my coverage of Korean equities in the next few months. https://t.co/ZeOArWzeUI
Swap Lines Reveal Preference for USD Over De‑Dollarization Pain
The existence of Swap Lines is all the proof you need that countries would rather deal with the Pain of being beholden to the USD system than to deal with the Pain that De-Dollarization requires. https://t.co/ejftsuboEK
BOJ's Non‑hawkish Stance Forces USD/JPY to 160
Some comical headlines post-BOJ meeting. Absolutely nothing about the meeting was hawkish. They have to let 160 USDJPY go. https://t.co/aakxIf0ppd
Tech‑Driven Earnings Resilience Fuels Global Market Boom
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 28, 2026) Is the global stock market boom partly attributable to the resilience of earnings as technological innovations boost profit margins worldwide? https://t.co/I7VhP9xXJi
SOXX EPS Forecast Jumps Over $400 Since Q4 2025
$SOXX forward EPS estimate has surged from $250 to above $400 just since Q4 2025 @johnauthers @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/QSQJXvqIWj
First QQQ Downside Gap Tests Trend Strength
Lo and behold: We have a downside gap in $QQQ this morning. It needs to rally to 660.69 to fill it. (There’s no gap in $SPY.) The gap doesn’t look terribly significant; I’m mainly pointing it out because it’s the...
FDA Accuses Amgen of Data Manipulation; Erasca Falls
FDA claims Amgen drug data were ‘manipulated’; Erasca slides despite ‘home run’ results https://t.co/UbftjXwEwa $AMGN $ERAS - 53% $RCKT $JANX
Month-End Rebalancing Drives Strong Equity Sales, USD Rate Buying
Early look: month end rebalancing needs are the highest in a while: have -1.2 z-score for sale on equities (including this morning's selloff) and +1.4 z-score buying in USD rates markets. https://t.co/yuKAoaPSGq
Consistent Saving Beats Picking the Right Investment
The investment decision that matters most Saving consistently matters more than picking investments. #WealthBuilding #FinancialPlanning https://t.co/barJJEQNbf
Xpel's Free Cash Flow Soars, Stock Still Halves
Not always true, though. Xpel has doubled FCF and FCF/share over the last 3 years, and is very likely to double it again over the next 3 years, yet the stock has been cut in half. Xpel's stock price has...
Wheat Shows Strong Multi‑Quarter Breakout Amid Supply Disruptions
$WEAT Daily. Clean, multi-quarter breakout in Wheat likely being overlooked this morning given action & headlines elsewhere. But ramifications are important given supply disruptions. https://t.co/DCE8xmUj62
Silver Shortage Pressures Speculators Amid Industrial Demand
Given all the hype and talk of a Silver shortage/deficit, and how the available physical supply is being depleted to meet industrial needs beyond mining/production, the Speculators are having their patience put to the test. I think if they...
China’s Housing Collapse Erases Two Decades of Savings
I meant what I said: China is terrified of a global recession, and if Iran doesn’t capitulate, that’s exactly what we’ll get. Chinese home prices, representing the savings of the Chinese people, have erased all the gains of the past...
Illiquidity Becomes a Self‑Control Tool for Long‑Term Investors
Key quote: “long-term investors are shielded from the risks because they can lock up their capital to weather market cycles” The only risk being “shielded” is the risk of being dumb (selling in a panic). That’s not a trivial thing, we’re...
June Gold Futures Slip Below Dec‑29 High $4
Looking at June #Gold Futures move decisively below the 12/29/25 HOD print at $4645.4 https://t.co/6XqLVzB8I5
Spotify Reaches 293M Premium Users, 761M MAU
Earnings: Spotify Hits 293 Million Premium Subscribers in Q1 PRO The music streaming giant reaches a total of 761 million monthly active users @TheWrap
Medical Office Demand Strong; Costs Stall New Supply
Medical office occupancy has reached a cyclical high of 92.4% across the top 100 metros. Absorption is keeping pace with completions. Demand is not the problem. The constraint on new supply isn't lack of tenant demand; it's construction costs that hit an...
Check Your Portfolio Less for Less Stress, Better Returns
Why checking your portfolio less helps Less checking often means less stress and better outcomes. #LongTermInvesting #BehaviouralFinance https://t.co/vWXJKp3lOU
South Korea Fuels BlackRock’s EM Overweight, Memory Stocks Rally
"BlackRock in April said South Korea was a key driver for its upgrade of emerging-market stocks to overweight"... memory stocks have now become a consensus trade