Record Seller Surplus Signals Falling US Home Prices
US home prices increased 0.7% over the last year, the slowest growth rate since June 2023. There are currently a record 46% more sellers than buyers nationally. Absent manipulation from the Federal Government/Reserve, prices will come down and homes will become more affordable. https://t.co/NTVZxt7rKs
Data, Not Rules, Drives Real Trading Success
Trading rules are relatively worthless The real worth comes from the trading metrics produced by the rules that after several hundred trades can be analyzed in a Monte Carlo simulator. Data are everything. Rules are just a way to gather enough...
S&P 500 Still Below Inflation-Adjusted Peak After 16 Years
More than 16 years after the tech bubble burst, the S&P 500 was still below its inflation-adjusted peak. Now that's what we call a bubble. https://t.co/7QyYxKECs4
PulteGroup Hikes Incentives to 10.9%, $54.5K Bonus
Homebuilder PulteGroup pushes housing market incentives to 10.9%—that’s $54,500 on a $500,000 sale PulteGroup notes that its historically “normal” incentive range is between 3.0% and 3.5% Chart via @ResidentialClub
Indonesia Reexamines QMB Nickel Licence Amid Tightening RKAB Quotas
Indonesia reviews QMB nickel licence after IMIP landslide as RKAB quotas tighten nickel supply. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/qmb-nickel-licence-review-signals.html
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Purdue $5.5B sentence clears way for $7.4B settlement and bankruptcy exit. Legal exposure shifts to claims; recoveries will be constrained and reputational risk endures. Trade: reduce exposure to legacy opioid-linked pharma. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Semiconductors Claim Record Share of S&P 500 IT
Yardeni Research Chart of the Day (April 28, 2026) The S&P 500 Semiconductors industry now accounts for a record 41.9% and 47.1% of the S&P 500 Information Technology sector's market capitalization and forward earnings. Do you think this is sustainable? https://t.co/mmJzuPj5Sb
Google's AI Stack Offers Massive Upside Potential
$GOOGL has plenty of upside from here. The most complete AI stack in the business. 👏🏻🚀
Spot Trend Exhaustion Before Chasing Reversals
You keep trying to catch reversals and end up chasing price. That’s because you’re not identifying trend exhaustion first. In an uptrend, price slows down, fails to make higher highs, and breaks a higher low. In a downtrend, it fails...
PulteGroup's Orders Reveal K‑Shaped Housing Market
K-shaped housing market is showing up directly in giant homebuilder PulteGroup's order book "Economic reports talk to the K-shaped economy... We saw this play out again in our first quarter results" - @pultehome CEO Ryan Marshall said on their earnings call
5‑Minute Breakdown: Trading NVDA Daily Call Options
Want to grip it and rip it? Here's a 5 min breakdown of how they traded the $NVDA DAILY Call Options
Quick 5‑Minute Deal Analysis: Yield >150 Bp Spread Wins
“How do I analyze a deal in 5 minutes?” BOE’s are extremely easy Basically what you’ll be doing is: 1. Multiplying market rents by the property’s unit count 2. Applying a vacancy factor to get total revenue 3. Multiplying the total revenue by...
Fed's Inflation Focus Risks Stock Market Amid Iran War
Will the Fed break the stock market as Chair Powell and the FOMC dial up their focus on inflation amid the US-Iran war? #Fed #FOMC #Powell #IranWar #StockMarket #Dollar #Oil #Gold #Macro #Trading https://t.co/ER2QbNR0qa
S&P Slides; Fed Meeting and Mega‑cap Earnings Dominate
MARKET RECAP 📉 S&P 500 fell lower today, but all eyes are on tomorrow 👀 We have the FOMC and potentially Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Fed chair, alongside 4 of the largest 10 companies in the world reporting earnings. Those...
London’s Eurodollar Rise Stemmed From Belgian, French Rejection
🏴☠️1/ If what I think is happening is really happening, then I can make some predictions. Especially about incoming European problems. But first an important side story, which also relates to the “special relationship”. What a lot of people don’t know is...
China Bans Meta-Manus Deal, Highlighting US‑China Business Strain
China’s Ban on Meta-Manus Deal Shows Strains in U.S.-China Business Ties—National-security concerns are increasingly weighing on commercial ties @hannahmiao_ https://t.co/8u5gYXWhtZ https://t.co/8u5gYXWhtZ
Doubling Down On
I'm doubling down on this....I think Apple is calls We had the prelims if earnings..... tomorrow the real fun begins Discord people 9 PM tonight
China's Export‑driven Model Collapses Under Security Costs
China built its entire economic model based on the principle that exports were universal. That model is crumbling as countries realized they hollowed out their manufacturing base and eroded their own national security in the process. China was the biggest...
2008‑09 Bear‑Market Signals Boost RSP Returns Significantly
$RSP - Good Chart From Sam.... So I did some number crunching..... The catch: 2008-2009 has 6 clustered signals near the bear market lows, and those produce enormous forward returns. Strip those out and the edge narrows. That's not a reason to...
SGAT Convertible at 8.625% Coupon Trades at 60
SGAT had a convertible bond back in the day that I had a big position in. I think it had an 8 5/8 coupon and trade at 60.
Mersen Q1 2026 Call Highlights Market Outlook
Mersen (CBLNY) dropped its Q1 2026 sales call transcript. Key takeaways on market conditions and outlook from management. Worth a read if you’re tracking industrial plays. 📉📈 EarningsSeason
WSJ OpenAI Miss Report Triggers AI Rally Collapse
April 28, 2026 close. The record rally got stopped today, but not by what most people expected. Not by Iran. Not by the Fed. By a single Wall Street Journal story saying OpenAI is missing its own revenue and 1-billion-user...
Housing Supply Surges Past Population, Creating Accidental Landlords
Housing Unit Growth Far Outruns Population Growth: Vacant Units on the Market and the “Accidental Landlords.” These dynamics are now moving in the right direction. https://t.co/J2ThoTPrRD https://t.co/GVUspOBlLG
Market Misprices Lithium: Brazil, Canada Offer Arbitrage Opportunity
Brazil is a Tier One mining jurisdiction. Canada is a sophisticated capital market for mine financing. Why does Mr. Market continue to underappreciate and undervalue its lithium producers and developers? Modern portfolio theory suggests such arbitrage should not exist where...
Equity Hedging and Commodities Boost Portfolio Performance
I recently had the pleasure of appearing on Dean Curnutt's excellent AlphaExchange podcast. The goal was to detail how a carefully designed combination of equity index hedging and long commodities can meaningfully improve the performance of a traditional asset allocation...
Home‑buying Sentiment Hits Multiyear High
The consumer sentiment index on the intent to buy a new #home was released today at a multiyear high. #housing #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Half of US Metros See February Home Price Drops
🏘️📉"More than half of major U.S. metropolitan markets posted year-over-year price declines in February, signaling that the housing slowdown has broadened well beyond its Sun Belt origins" - S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index https://t.co/n3HIGUVg7v
Global Economy Inching Toward a Massive Oil Shock
Haven’t seen lines like this since airlines in March 2020 It really does seem to me that the whole world is sleepwalking into a massive oil shock. Would be delighted to be wrong. What am I missing?
Starbucks Sees Broad Same‑store Growth and Rising Loyalty
Starbucks earnings call summary: Everybody is generating same-store sales growth; Earnings are up; Cold foam 🔥🔥🔥; Low-income consumers are coming back; Ignore the haters, loyalty is doing fine; Tariffs are fading; So what if everybody is doing Refreshers. $SBUX
Real Estate Leverage Lets $60k Control $300k Asset
$60,000 down on a $300,000 rental property controls a $300,000 asset. That same $60,000 in the stock market controls $60,000. The bank will never offer you that deal on a stock. They've been telling you which asset they trust more for hundreds of...
2020‑Peak US Bonds Lose 30‑50% Real Value
If you bought 10 year US bonds near the peak in 2020, on an after inflation basis, you're still down 30% six years later. If you bought 30 year US bonds instead, you're down over 50%.
Figure Weighs SPAC Revival for Triple‑dip Gains
Should Figure run a SPAC? “The goal here is to triple dip. We can make money for Figure shareholders on the SPAC economics, we drive more usage on the Figure ecosystem and we get another listing on OPEN.” 🤔 maybe they should...
Buy the Price‑value Gap, Not the Hype
Investors spend years trying to predict which businesses will transform industries. Graham spent his career not caring about that at all. He wasn't buying stories. He was buying the gap between price and provable value. Stories change. Spreadsheets don't lie.
When Markets Pause, Undisciplined Traders Err Most
The market just ran a sprint. Now it's catching its breath. And that's exactly when undisciplined traders make their worst decisions.
Metro Home Prices Diverge: Winners and Losers Nationwide
Chart: Year-over-year shift in home prices across the 50 largest metro area housing markets Where do you think home prices in your local housing market head next? Take the @_TurboHome-ResiClub Housing Sentiment Survey: https://t.co/x319m6NQxc
Starbucks Beats Forecasts, Shows Ste
$SBUX: “Back to SBUX” strategy working w a nice beat/raise against fairly high expectations. Total SSS +6.2% w US +7.1% - whisper was 6%. Intl & China also beat. OM at 9.4% vs. 8.2% y/y - showing gradual improvement. EPS...
Use Hedges as Safety Nets During Sector Pullbacks
$qqq also held the 8day at first kiss. They usually do. P.S having some hedges when sectors are very extended from the 8day helps when they pullback to them. https://t.co/5QJoDcmDyo
Strong Sectors Typically Sustain Early 8‑day Rallies
$smh almost missed the 8day. The strongest sectors usually hold them. At least at first kiss. https://t.co/8YNoTpWAjk
Diminishing Participation Signals Bearish Divergence and Low Volume
SPY: Stock participation has deteriorated over the last days, creating a bearish divergence similar to those that preceded healthy pullbacks last year. What makes this occurrence particularly intriguing is the vanishing volume, adding a layer of divergence and caution. #SPX
RSI Soars 123% Amid Industry Decline
Including an after-hours spike following increased revenue guidance projections, $RSI stock is now up more than 123% in the past 12 months; Rush Street's growth comes as most other digital operators have seen significant drops
Starbucks Lifts Same‑store Sales Target to 5%+
Starbucks raised its expectations for same-store sales this year to 5% or better globally and in the U.S. $SBUX
Starbucks Forecasts Lower Tariffs, Coffee Costs Later 2024
Starbucks expects tariffs and coffee prices to ease in the back half of this year. $SBUX
Starbucks' Top 10 International Markets Finally Post Positive Same‑Store Sales
All 10 of Starbucks' 10 largest international markets generated positive same-store sales for the first time in nine quarters last period. $SBUX
Starbucks Margins Rise Thanks to Growth and Cost Discipline
Starbucks margins are up "We have more work to do, but we're pleased to see the combination of our comp growth and cost discipline starting to show up in margins" - CFO https://t.co/9xXd09aYXO
Airport Traffic Boosts Starbucks Licensed Same‑store Sales
Strong airport demand led to improving same-store sales in the Starbucks licensed business last quarter. $SBUX
Visa's Double-Digit Growth Fuels $7.9B Buyback
Visa continues to be a beautiful compounder with Strong double-digit growth & did $7.9B in buybacks $V
CEO Buys 6.9K Shares, Signaling No M&A Imminent
$CHTR President and CEO Christopher Winfrey discloses purchase of 6.9K shares So I guess no M&A imminent. 🧐
Visa Posts Double‑digit Earnings Growth and $20B Buyback
$V Q2’26 EARNINGS up 4% everyone • Revenue $11.23B vs $10.74B ✅ • Adj EPS $3.31 vs $3.10 ✅ • Payments Volume +9% • Cross-Border +12% • Transactions 66.1B vs 66.39B ⚠️ Highlights: • Strong double-digit growth (+17% rev, +20% EPS) • Cross-border still leading (high-margin driver) •...
Precious Metals Near Oversold, Rebound Likely Soon
The precious metals complex remains firmly in an uptrend and is now approaching oversold levels, a condition that often signals a rebound is near.
AI Flags Hidden Related‑Party Risk in TOYO’s Revenue
AI is great for assessing risk. Since I'm generally a half glass full investor, I find this really helpful. Related party risk is one we used to look for when @GeoInvesting was writing short reports. So, it's a risk I...