Refinery Jet and Diesel Peaks Cut Other Outputs, Prices Rise
When oil refineries go "max" jet and "max" diesel, they (necessarily) also reduce output of other products. The market is starting to price it.
US Gas Prices Surge Again Under Trump Administration
CHART OF THE DAY: After a short relief period, US gasoline retail prices have climbed to another high under a Trump administration. (Coincidentally, President Trump met yesterday with oil CEOs. I bet the White House will be soon announcing new...
Semiconductors and Energy Stocks Surge Amid Oil Hype
while everyone tries to stay excited (and some perhaps anxious) about oil prices & Middle East headlines, semiconductors $SMH vs. energy $XLE stocks keep heading higher in their multi-year uptrend... https://t.co/xeMlOCoStn
Bull Markets Outlast and Outpace Bear Markets
Bear markets pale in comparison to bull markets, both in market movement and duration. A good reminder for every long-term investor. https://t.co/vext5HiTeH
Research and Timing Matter Beyond “Buy What You Know”
Lynch also eventually set the record straight, saying people took his “buy what you know” advice out of context. Buying market leading popular consumer facing companies like Blockbuster video or K-Mart at the wrong time would have been a disaster. Both...
Seized USDJPY Breakout, Earned +6.39R Profit
Caught a great opportunity in USDJPY yesterday morning. Sharp drop on the BoJ announcement flushed support, then recaptured it. Bid the HoH, right into the level, stop below. Closed just now on the breakout of D1 resistance for +6.39R. Sorry for being...
Hormuz Blockade Drives Fertilizer Surge, Threatens Planting
Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer prices. Hitting countries at what should be planting times. Pending food supply shortages and high prices. Hormuz—a global supply chain disaster.
Fed Holds Rates Hawkishly, Blames Iran War
🚨 FED DAY PLAYBOOK 🚨 3 things we KNOW happen today: ✅ No rate cut ✅ Hawkish hold ✅ Powell blames Iran war for global uncertainty The wild cards 👇 ❓ Does he stay on as a Fed governor? ❓ Inflation worry vs. growth...
Meta's China Risk Low Despite $21.8B Ad Spend
What is Meta’s China exposure? China has ordered Meta to reverse its Manus acquisition, threatening technology transfers and advertising revenue. It invites an interesting question: what is Meta's exposure to China? Despite an estimated $21.8BN in advertising revenue in the country,...
Proposed Housing Investor Ban Halts Builders, Hurts Real People
The Senate-passed bill banning institutional housing investors isn't yet law but has already "stopped home builders in their tracks" by scaring off investors & lenders. An instant case study of bad policy harming real people, even when just for show 😡 https://t.co/h5oaq2IAYN...
Semi Market
Damned If We Do and Damned If We Don't 💫Semi Surge Seems Stressed 💫Semi Reflexivity In Full View 💫The Stealth Buyer Still In The Room https://t.co/ObymQYFfzf
Premium Brands Holds 75% Upside Potential
This morning, Alta Fox published a press release and full thesis deck on $PBH CN (Premium Brands Holdings), a business we believe is significantly undervalued with 75%+ upside in our base case. The materials outline our investment thesis and highlight...
Big Tech Earnings Spotlight AI Monetization and Capex
We expect a big few days ahead from the Big Tech world as investors focus on AI monetization trends, cap ex levels, and the overall tone of business from Mag 7 tech stalwart earnings with tonight the Super Bowl of...
AI-Linked Firms Now Represent Nearly Half of US Market
"AI-linked companies, from “hyperscalers” to chip makers and power providers, already make up about 45% of the U.S. stock market" --@Spencerjakab https://t.co/iiypmMavNI
FIFA Pushes Blanket US Tax Exemption for World Cup Teams
I've been following FIFA's efforts to secure tax-exempt status for member associations participating in the World Cup this summer. This is the first of hearing of some sort of blanket exemption for all participating teams. Interested to see whether this...
Rare Market Divergence: More Lows Than Highs After Record S&P
On Monday, the S&P 500 $SPY closed at a record high. The next day, at least 1% more stocks hit a 52-week low than a 52-week high. In 70+ years of history, that's happened twice. Yesterday was one. January 3, 2000 was...
Stay Invested: S&P 500 Wins 75% of Years
The S&P 500 averages ~10% per year… But the reality? • Best year: +34% • Worst year: -38% • Positive ~75% of the time Long-term investors win by staying invested, not timing it.
Financial Freedom Makes Life Exponentially Easier
Life becomes 1000X easier when you have: - No car loan - No school loans - No credit card debt - 6 months of expenses saved - Automated monthly investments
Deutsche Börse Downgraded to Hold as Upside Caps
Deutsche Börse’s strong execution is now fully priced in. At a forward P/E of ~22x, upside looks capped—downgrading from Buy to Hold. Quality business, but fair valuation limits the risk/reward. Markets
Higher Rates Raise Investors' Opportunity Cost in Value‑add Real Estate
Don't think I appreciated the full impact of higher interest rates on the heavy value-add real estate business when rates increased initially in '22. The problem for operators isn't just the higher exit caps. It's the increased opportunity cost for investors of...
Key Index Shifts: Semis, EM, Industrials Signal Sentiment
Important index changes we think you should know about, in this week's ETF video below. Semis, Emerging Markets, Industrials, and flows as a sentiment barometer. Thanks as always for watching. https://t.co/QbnBM1ljrD
Profit by Positioning, Not Reacting, in Bubble Volatility
Bubble Dynamics Create Opportunity as Volatility Between FOMO and Fear Accelerates Bubbles aren’t just price. They’re behavior. 📈 FOMO → chase 📉 Fear → flush Edge = ⚡Fade both ⚡Trade both The fractal breathes in… then exhales hard. You don’t react — you position for it.
Purchase Index Jumps 21% YoY, Modest Weekly Rise
MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 21 percent higher than the same week one year ago." Note: the comparable...
Aschenbrenner’s AI‑Era Fund Boosts Bloom Energy 13‑fold
Aschenbrenner is the top fund manager of the AI Era (KISS). Bloom energy now a 13X since he got involved. $BE https://t.co/RJrhSug8xs
Predicting Fed Tone: Green Gains vs Red Declines
Do you see more GREEN or RED 👀 Before every Fed meeting, I build a table comparing how the economy has shifted since the last one to gauge the likely tone. 🟢 Green = improvement 🔴 Red = deterioration So with that in mind…...
Low Breadth Signals Risk‑Off, Stay Selective Until Confirmation
Short-term breadth = RISK OFF. That matters. Because even with a strong market structure, swings need participation to follow through. Right now: • Setups are there • Breakdowns aren’t triggering • But momentum has stalled the last 2 days That’s not a trend. That’s hesitation. I’m staying selective until...
AA's $111M Profit, Execs Pocket $50M
American Airlines Made Just $111 Million — Top Officers And Board Got $50 Million - View from the Wing https://t.co/5rUZ7VzT9Y
World Bank Predicts 24% Energy Price Surge by 2026
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, the World Bank estimates that energy prices will SURGE by 24% in 2026. WARS = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/s4wF67lMDm
Futures Prop Price War: Cheaper Trades, Tighter Margins
Is a price war in the futures prop space GOOD or BAD for traders? Good = lower costs Bad = margins squeezed, which will lead to tighter rules Comment below 👇
Betting on Undervalued Companies That Beat Low Expectations
Lowell Capital on investing in good businesses with low expectations "Our general experience is that if the business can exceed these low expectations or generate results that are less bad than expected, the stock price is likely to increase. We spend a...
Goldman Sachs Hikes Oil Forecasts Amid Hormuz Shutdown
"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted oil-price forecasts as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz spurs 'extreme' inventory draws." -BBG
Build Portfolios for Unexpected Storms, Not Just Forecasts
Elroy Dimson spent decades studying markets. His sharpest insight had nothing to do with returns. "More things can happen than will happen." Most portfolios are built for the forecast. The best ones are built for the storm that wasn't in it.
Tech Earnings Lift Markets as FOMC Approaches
Markets are mixed ahead of today's #FOMC. Prediction markets see zero movement for the remaining 2026 meetings. Strong earnings are lifting tech, with $STX hitting new highs and boosting S&P names. Tonight marks peak earnings-know what you own. https://t.co/xVYU4GfNBQ
Trump's Hormuz Blockade Threatens Global Supply Chains
Trump. Extend Hormuz blockade. With no care of what it means. What will global supply chains do? And the global economy?
ETSY Rallies on Bullish Options and Positive Report
$ETSY been on my "to-write" list with recent surge in bullish options + price-action, seems they are receiving the report well this morning https://t.co/ZZnZ3S8rAU
BoC Likely Holds Rates Amid Slowing Economy, Rising Inflation
Bank of Canada meets before the Fed this morning. ZERO chance they hike rates 🔻Spending DOWN 🔻Full time employment DOWN ⬆️Inflation UP https://t.co/HPRy9yMpD7
KALV $27 Buyout Highlights Hot Biotech
$KALV 27/share buyout, Biotech deals staying hot Sep call spreads, May calls score nicely https://t.co/3XFYldxsBi
Insider Buying Signals Confidence Amid Q1 Decline
Ugly 1Q2026 numbers from United Tractors UNTR IJ. Komatsu sales volumes -20% YoY. But Astra insiders are buying. Coal prices have risen recently. And I think the coming El Niño will be positive for volumes from 3Q2026 onwards.
1‑Day Straddle at 105 Bps Signals FOMC
My snark aside, this person has a clear point. The 1DTE straddle is 105bps, implying that its Mags that matter, with some FOMC flavor. https://t.co/x8AGRKoHAf
Purchase Apps Jump 21% YoY After 12% Rise
Purchase apps up 21% year over year, coming off a 12% YoY print last week
Sopra Steria Revenue Dips, Order Book Rises, Outlook Steady
Sopra Steria’s Q1 2026 revenue dipped due to a “cyclical downturn” in consulting, but their order book grew & full-year guidance is steady. UK public sector and CSRD software are bright spots. SopraSteria
AI Capex Gains Matter Only When Revenue Follows
Earnmaggedon tonight: Microsoft Alphabet Amazon Meta all report within minutes of each other after the closing bell. AI capex is only bullish if it’s translating into real, measurable revenue and higher forward guidance. Brace.
Live on Fox Business: Oil, Tech Earnings, Market Outlook
I'll be on with Cheryl Casone today at @FoxBusiness live at HQ around 8:20 am EST talking Oil, Tech Earnings, markets and what's in store for the days ahead
Chinese EVs Already Rolling in El Paso Amid Ban Push
I covet a Chinese EV. The U.S. wants to ban China’s high-tech, low-cost cars. They’re already here in El Paso. https://t.co/rMpBgCaqPG
Tech Earnings Set to Outpace Fed Decision Impact
🚨TODAY: FOMC VS. TECH EARNINGS 🍿 *My money is on earnings = bigger mover 2:00PM: Fed Rate Decision 2:30PM: Powell's last press conference as Fed Chairman Earnings: 4:00PM: $GOOGL $META $AMZN 4:05PM: $META https://t.co/MHymxCHk0O
Brent $120+ Needed to Hit 2005 Energy Index High
This Year May Test a Top Force in Energy - Elasticity If Brent crude oil can stay above $120 a barrel, the Bloomberg Energy Spot Index may top 2005's high. Both outcomes appear unlikely absent something very bad happening in the...
Focus on Profit Impact, Not Revenue Share, of Top Customers
FWIW - Analysts need to stop asking companies what percentage of their revenue comes from the top of the K and start asking them what percentage of their profits the top contributes to the bottom line.
Powell's Final Press Conference Could Signal Fed Pivot
Jerome Powell is set to deliver his final FOMC press conference as Fed Chair today, alongside a key interest rate decision at 2PM ET. Markets are on edge as investors look for signals on inflation, rate cuts, and the future path...
Energy Surge May Trigger Deflation, Crude Prices Collapse
Energy Surge Can Be a Lose-Lose for Crude Prices Spiking diesel, gasoline and natural gas prices, particularly in Europe and Asia, are curbing demand, and it's a question of magnitude and duration. My top takeaway from the energy crisis is that...
Nifty 50 Below 24,300 Signals Short‑Term Weakness
What happens if the Nifty 50 breaks below the crucial 24,300 level? Rohit Srivastava breaks down high-probability market scenarios and potential short-term weakness in his latest LiveMint feature. Read the full expert analysis here to stay ahead of the next...