From California Mill Idea to $1B Blue Moon Surge
Seeing Blue Moon $BMM $MOON.V flirt with a C$1 billion market cap, the Koala again looks at the US listed tungsten comps and chuckles... What started as a "well, what if we bought this instead of trying to permit a mill in California?" creative idea has really just snowballed into something special
US Natural Gas Prices Drop to 18‑Month Low
In the middle of what some have described as the worst energy crisis ever (worst than 1973+1979+2022 combined), let me tell you that US natural gas prices are falling toward a 18-month low of $2.6 per mBtu. (And yes, North...
Netflix Nears $100 Hold After Recent Highs
$NFLX recent highs 102.69 a move and hold over is the next level I am watching for stop changes. $100 finally hold today? https://t.co/aGHh7dOTKV
SPY and QQQ Hold Gap Pivot, Spark Rally
Soooo. $spy and $qqq both held yesterday’s gap pivot and rallied. How did u do? #630club
USDA Holds South American Crop Forecast Amid Agency Updates
USDA left South American production alone this month. Interesting after seeing some increases from other agencies on Argentina's corn and Brazil's soybean crops. Conab will be out with its estimates on April 14. https://t.co/2Up1v7VTJr
March Sales Volume up, Prices Slightly Down
March had slightly stronger sales volume this year and slightly weaker prices. I'll have over ten counties of data on my blog tomorrow. What stands out to you? https://t.co/1K0bqpjivW
10‑Year Yield Above 4.4% Proves Unmanageable
Well that is a problem given that in the last couple weeks, the MOVE Volatility Index and US policymakers’ actions (TACO’d every single time 10y hit 4.4%) empirically showed that the US & world cannot handle >4.4% on the 10y. #YouDownWithYCCYeahYouKnowMe
USDA Lifts Wheat Stocks to 938M, Corn and Soy Steady
USDA raised its domestic #wheat ending stocks by 7 million to 938 million bushels, while leaving #corn and #soybean stocks unchanged. #oatt
Avalyn Targets Hard-to-Treat Lung Disease, Prepares IPO
Chasing a tough-to-treat lung disease, Avalyn plans an IPO https://t.co/743svTKTS4 by @gwendolynawu #IPO $AVLN $BMY $ABBV
Visible Market Zones Act as Key Decision Points
It's all about how a market acts in these most visible areas: resistance, partial fill, or full retrace. These visible areas are a form of "decision points". https://t.co/lg9H4G02y9
Marvell Exemplifies One-Time Framing in Extended Stock Runs
I have quite a list of stocks currently on extended runs up. Marvell is also an example of "one time-framing." https://t.co/uOS5Tjya5k
Selloff Was Repricing, Upside Capped, Downside Risks Remain
If you use fundamentals to supplement your technical work as I do, here's what this selloff actually was. We didn't crash. We repriced to fair value. The low landed almost perfectly on the current multiple levels. 21x $305 = 6,405. From here, the...
SPs Rally Eight Days Post Wide-Range Reversal Buy
SPs - now on day 8 of extended run up after Wide Range Reversal Buy at bottom of the swing..... https://t.co/s8IEMHPoQr
Iranian Traders Swap Gold for Bonds Amid War
This is a really fantastic overview of what's been going on in Iranian financial markets over the last year. Turns out, since the start of this war, Iranian retail traders have been rotating out of precious metals and into fixed income...
Luck Beats
Sometimes better to be lucky than good. Trailing the all morning short pop on $BOIL, get up to get lunch. come back and throw a new trail for the dub. #TradingLife https://t.co/wtD7BJL7HR
When CEOs Spend Millions Buying Low, They Trust Their Stock
5 signs a CEO actually believes in their own stock: 1. Open market purchase not option exercise - they chose to buy with their own cash 2. Purchase size over $1M - real money not a gesture 3. Stock is near 52-week low...
CTAs Set to Flip $34B Into S&P This Week
"CTAs are currently short $30b S&P 500. Our model suggests that at current market levels CTAs will buy $34b of S&P 500 over the next week (closing out shorts and flipping long)." After yesterday’s move higher in the S&P...
US Market Depth Keeps Dollar King Despite Global Turmoil
I spoke to @SeanPmathews about KING DOLLAR: "Sanctions, wars, and tariffs make it easier for the dollar's challengers. But the US is the biggest, most liquid capital market in the world, bigger than all the others put together. That’s why king...
Balance Spending and Giving: Avoid Selfish Extremes
Once you have enough savings and are on the right path, spend some money, give some away. Don't wait until you're 90. It's okay to buy some luxuries and especially okay to give today instead of waiting for your kids...
Rising Bond Supply Threatens Tight Spreads, Rotate Funds
Bond issuance is surging. More supply into already tight spreads. That math doesn't work forever. When the dam breaks, you want a fund that rotates. $JOJO. https://t.co/rq34u6KTHX
AI Boosts $NOW Amid Wild Drawdown and Mispricing
$NOW drawdown is wild. AI will accelerate its business meaningfully. The SaaS repricing is real, but this one is now wildly mispriced and underestimated.
Six Straight S&P Gains Forecast 11% Median Return
Six for Six S&P 500 up six days in a row and up 6%? Above average returns across the board, with a median return of another nearly 11% 3-months later. https://t.co/bM6BsGKqAZ
Protect Your Family: Estate Planning Beats 40% Tax
If you die without a plan... - The government takes 40% in tax - Probate court costs $100k+ - Your kids get the scraps If you love your family, here's every document you need to protect them: (from a CPA & father of two)
FHA Delinquency Spike Mostly Reporting Artifact, Not Borrower Weakness
New paper argues that 92% of the increase in FHA mortgage delinquencies between Sept. 2025 and Jan. 2026 "is driven by how an FHA policy change is reported rather than increasing financial fragility among FHA borrowers" https://t.co/uRxP5BtOQO
Turkey's Central Bank Loses 128 Tons Gold Amid Lira Pressure
The latest data - out today - show gold holdings by Turkey's central bank falling a further 8 tons in the week to April 3. This brings the total drop to 128 tons since depreciation pressure on the Lira peg...
Mid‑South Generates Double Texas Wealth with Fewer People
The Midsouth (TN + Carolinas) have 24m people combined Texas has 32m And yet, the 3 states of the Mid South picked up 2x as much wealth as Texas ($11b vs. $6b) The mid South is the next great economic region...
IGV and SMH Show Record Negative Correlation
Software $IGV and semis $SMH are the most negatively correlated ever (based on 63-day correlation of daily excess returns vs $SPY) https://t.co/x0Dfm9zreN
NYC Simplifies Backyard ADUs for Affordable Housing
I love that NYC is making it easier to build housing with backyard ADUs that you can install for $200k and rent or use for family. A few here from the @nytimes: https://t.co/2TcTnKKRwm
IMF Highlights Iran War Impact, Offers No New Action
.@KGeorgieva opening speech @IMFNews spring meetings entirely about impact of Iran war. Notable shift as IMF and @WorldBankGroup have been reticent so far. But unlike previous crises, IMF is not proposing new action, other than standing ready to help.
Inside Market Maker Privilege and the Vanishing AMEX Floor
Long one today on "market maker privilege" Packed with story, opinion, and gritty details of the way things work. Including this very hard to find picture of the AMEX floor when it was open https://t.co/4PMRBEdGAx cc floor traders who are time-for-a-colonoscopy years old https://t.co/kmosRyopNm
Brazil Hikes Ethanol Blend; Argentina Lifts Corn Forecast
In case you missed it, some pertinent news came out of South America Wednesday afternoon. 🇧🇷Brazil wants to raise ethanol's mix in gasoline to 32% from 30% by the end of June 🇦🇷Argentina's Rosario exchange raised the 25/26 corn crop to 67...
UK Bond Volatility Undermines Liquidity and Mortgage Availability
Once again, the UK financial markets are dominated by the “high beta” character of government bonds. (Please see Bloomberg data below.) This isn't just about rate volatility in the national benchmark; it’s also about how that volatility undermines market liquidity, complicates...
Insiders Rake $762M in Minutes After Robinhood Hype
Robinhood traders watching DC insiders make 762M in three 5 minute candles after Vlad told them he was 'democratizing finance' with 24/7 trading, private venture access, and in game live betting. https://t.co/lYksJXY7VW
CELH Outpaces MNST on Volume, Trades at Half Valuation
Still some risks to the $CELH growth story but volumes up +23.6% YoY with the stock trading at 3.2x NTM revs (and $PEP owns 11%) ...meanwhile $MNST volumes only up +3.5% YoY (not including BANG with volumes down -18.3% YoY)... yet...
IRS Enables Online 83(b) Election, Ending Postal Trips
The IRS now allowing you to submit an 83(b) election online is a game changer This has now eliminated my only remaining reason for going to the post office https://t.co/gjjLFqI6F4
AWS Poised for Its Most Consequential Growth Phase
Seems a good time to resurface this report on the back of the Amazon shareholder letter. The AWS Acceleration Thesis: Why Amazon's Cloud Business May Be Entering Its Most Consequential Growth Phase https://t.co/nNOw2zxMk9
Tesla Rebounds Above $340, Eyes $350 to End Dip
$TSLA back above 340 after testing this week's low and being bought at S2. this is typically how it bottoms. a couple of closes above 350 would negate recent downward momentum. https://t.co/jZW69oVwfM
Eight Trillion Dollars of T‑Bills Rollover Every Year
That’s the thing about treasury bills man, there’s $8t that rolls over every year And the world keeps spinning every year despite it!
February Sees Biggest Seller Price Cuts Since 2012
More sellers are cutting prices than any February since 2012, and they are having to adjust their expectations down by $40k on average. That's according to a new Redfin report (link in thread). https://t.co/uokLEo4VDR
Mexico's Climate‑scientist President Backs Controversial Shale Gas
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist by training, makes a policy U-turn, now backing the development of shale gas deposits in her country (which means fracking, even if she avoided using that word — a taboo in Mexico —...
Methanol Prices Surge, Highlighted in Chartbook
Methanol - another basic material the price of which has surged. More on this in the Chartbook Top links today. https://t.co/zsabi9bx96
Venezuela Wastes $330M Buying Bolívars; Adopt Dollar Now
#VNZWatch 🇻🇪: In an attempt to prop up the collapsing bolívar, the government has sold about $330 million to purchase bolívars. This is a futile exercise. THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD REPLACE THE BOLÍVAR WITH THE GREENBACK IMMEDIATELY. https://t.co/J9kJ4mZ9TB
Apartment Supply Surge Ends, Rent Growth Stalls
It's official: The historic wave of new apartment supply is now in the rearview mirror. Completions in Q1'26 came in at one of the lowest levels in 7+ years, and will likely hover around these levels for a while --...
Omai Poised for G2‑scale Valuation After Deal Alignment
A deal that always made operational/synergistic sense finally had the numbers align Logical flow forward of funds here will be Omai $OMG.V If G2 goes for ~C$2.6 billion with <4 million ounces in resources, have to think Omai has clear line...
Treasury Yields Surge Above 4.9% Amid CPI, Auction Pressure
Between tomorrow's CPI and today’s 30-year auction, Treasuries are feeling the heat. That ceasefire euphoria has already faded - 30s are back north of 4.90%
Ultra‑low‑fee Vanguard S&P 500 Proves 401k Value
My 401k plan has a Vanguard S&P 500 fund with a 0.006% expense ratio. It’s one of the lowest S&P 500 fee funds available in a 401k plans 401k is not a scam
Market Breadth Surges to 84% After Bullish Divergence
that's a surge of #marketbreadth and buying as the % of stocks in the S&P 1500 > 10-day EMA moved up to ~84.1% after getting oversold with a #bulldivergence... https://t.co/zXjmVwy6hK
Gold’s Dip Tied to Rising Yields, Not Inflation Fears
A guest on @business questioned this morning why anyone would buy gold when you can buy inflation protected securities yielding 2.7%. Excellent question. A few answers: First, maybe I misheard him, but TIPS yields are currently just a tad under 2%...
Elevated Oil Prices Trigger Lagging Earnings Downgrades
Oil price impacts are likely to start showing up in negative earnings revisions this month. History suggests elevated oil prices have a lagged impact on fundamental conditions, and as long as oil prices remain somewhat elevated, downward revisions may remain...
More Free Time = More Trades, Lower Returns
The best thing that ever happened to your portfolio was you being too busy to look at it. New research tracked 59,000 Swedish investors before and after retirement. More free time meant more trading, more stocks and worse returns. Not because...