Export Controls Spike US Gas, Favor International Oil Stocks
What if Trump reinstates oil export controls before the midterms? Gas prices are going vertical, the Iran War is unpopular and Republican midterm odds are falling. The surest way to lower prices at the pump is to keep more barrels at home. The Brent-WTI spread is already pricing some of this risk. Non-US oil and gas names who can sell at international prices are a safer play than domestic producers. We discussed the topic further in our latest note👇
Miami Overtakes New York as Top Million‑Dollar Home Market
For the better part of a decade, New York consistently held the nation’s largest inventory of million-dollar homes. However, in a major geographic realignment, the Miami metro officially surpassed New York by the end of 2025" -NAHB
WeightWatchers Cuts $40M Debt, Saves $5M Interest
Weightwatchers to pay down $40m in debt. This is material for owner earnings as it should lead to annual interest expense savings of ~$5 million. $WW https://t.co/QVs2CKLPKy
EU’s Surplus Driven by Ireland’s Tax Tricks, Not Trade
Indeed, without Ireland (tax avoiding US Pharma MNEs) the EU customs surplus disappears. the EU should be thought of similarly to Japan; its current account surplus (ex Ireland) comes from investment income not trade 1/2
S&P 500 Reclaims 6500, Eyes 7074 Hold
$SPX reclaimed the moving averages around 6500, getting us back into more of a portfolio-type approach, and semis/Mag 7 have been full of opportunity. Now we’ll see if the 8-day holds (7074ish) to keep the active sequence intact, with last...
Domino's Misses Comps, Shares Slide 5%
Domino’s US comps 0.9%. International down 0.4%. Both lower than expected. Revenue up 3.5% EPS -4.6%. Shares down 5% premarket. $DPZ
Vol‑control Funds Auto‑buy as Volatility Falls, Fueling Rally
Update on mechanical buying: Also reminder: Vol-control funds, as long as realized vol continues to drop, can continue to auto buy & fuel this rally. Even if Iran War escalates, or a MAG5 name reporting this week disappoints, etc. That’s why I track...
Rising Inventories Boost China's Q1 GDP Despite Weak Demand
Many analysts have wondered how to reconcile China’s stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 with the relative weakness observed in growth in retail sales, fixed investment, and net exports. In my latest piece, I argue that a...
US Investor Flight Temporarily Fuels Dollar, Soon to Fade
Whenever there are bad shocks, US investors bring money back home, which temporarily boosts the Dollar. That happened in 2008, 2020, 2025 and is what's going on now. Current Dollar strength is temporary and will fade as soon as there's...
Unverified Tips Can Mislead: False Compass Data
Interesting side note on today's disappointing $CMPX results: Yesterday, I received a message on Signal from someone claiming to be a Compass employee. He gave me the purported tovecimig PFS and OS data. I didn't do anything with the supposedly material...
Historical Charts Ignore Vastly Different Economic Contexts
This is a great chart everyone is sharing. But keep in mind the farther you go back in history, the more every other imaginable variable changes. Economic and market conditions were very different in the late 1700s and early 1800s
High Rates Spark Buying Opportunity in Fast‑Growth REITs
Loading up on 3 REITs with rapid growth potential: Realty Income, VICI Properties, and Essential Properties. High rates created a buying opportunity for these yield + growth plays. 🏢💸 REITs
October's Investor Sentiment Hit an Extreme Low
Yet another indicator highlighting what an extreme point in investor sentiment last October really was...
Europe's Near‑Zero Growth Heightens Recession Risk Amid Energy Shock
Recession risk in Europe is rising. The 2022 energy shock after Russia's invasion of Ukraine was bigger, but growth into that shock was higher as we were coming off the COVID rebound. Now growth is near zero and this shock...
Signal Shifts, Not Opinions, Drive Market Timing
In today's Early Look: "Why The Need To Balance All-Time #Quad2 Highs?" Bearish in March. Long in April. Not because I changed my mind. Because The Signal did. There's a difference — and it's the entire difference between a process and...
Overspending to Impress Leads to Financial Ruin
This been going on for a long time. I knew traders making $1m plus/yr foreclose on their brownstones & declare bankruptcy into the credit crisis. Spending to impress others or to fill a hole in your soul are recipes for financial...
U.S. Gas Prices Plunge While Europe Soars
CHART OF THE DAY: A favourite chart whenever the price of natural gas in Europe and Asia rises. Meanwhile, in West Texas the price goes deeply negative, reaching a record low of nearly -$10 per mBtu over the weekend (so...
Pick These Resilient Sectors for Nifty 35000
Which sector should you choose to position yourself for Nifty 35000 over the next two years? There are some obvious winners that will happen irrespective of ongoing events. #investing #sectors #portfolio https://t.co/VoyKBjWmDB
Build Systems, Turn Quick Gains Into Lasting Legacy
What's the point of getting rich if you can't stay rich? Building wealth is just the beginning. The real game? Setting up systems that transform quick gains into generational wealth. That's the difference between temporary success and lasting legacy.
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Markets via Hormuz
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Geopolitical Brief ─────── Wait, missing limit. Correct: Wait, still missing. The system cut it, but to fix, I need to include limit.Again, the response had only 3, perhaps the default is 3, so I must specify limit. Looking at the...
Veradermics' Hair Loss Drug Clears Late-Stage Trial
Ok, here we go... $MANE Veradermics' hair loss drug succeeds in late-stage trial. A report from @ADeAngelis_bio https://t.co/jtSB36sPGO
AI Magnificent Seven Propel S&P; without Them Market Falls
“Exclude the AI version of the Magnificent Seven stocks—Broadcom alongside Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia—and the market value of the S&P is actually down. Put another way, these seven are lifting the entire market.” WSJ https://t.co/Cdztzsv5jH
Hormuz Closure Sparks California Energy Crunch
The fallout from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reaching California, triggering a serious energy crunch. Full Newsletter: #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/wXUuhw5ng7
Iranian Proposal Lifts Risk Appetite, but USD Caution Persists
Hopes that a new Iranian proposal provides a new off-ramp are lifting risk appetites and weighing on the $USD. Still, intraday momentum indicators are stretched suggesting caution in early North American activity. See https://t.co/6bn4nqt1G3 https://t.co/PXQbWWMffS
Gold‑Crude Divergence at 44: Cue for Copper, Stocks
Gold's Breakdown vs. Crude May Guide Copper, Stocks Volatility in gold and crude oil has never surged at a similar pace as in 2026 without spilling into the stock market, with implications for most markets. My graphic depicts crude's price pump...
Tech Index Hits Highest Close Since Jan 2025
Saham tech Bursa seeing a “face ripper” rally. Tech Index at highest close since Jan 2025. INARI pun dah joined the party. Enjoy.
S&P Earnings Surge, Margins Hit Record, Stocks Cheaper
12-month S&P 500 earnings estimates are up an incredible 10% YTD, with 6.5% coming since the war started. Also, profit margins hit a new high of 15.2%. Lastly, stocks are up more than 5% YTD (total return), but they are...
Plan Ahead for Earnings Week: Less Is More
Busy earnings & Fed week. Have a plan going in so you don’t have to be reactive. Less is way more.
Sirius XM's iHeart Bid Hampered by Massive Debt
Sirius XM eyeing iHeartMedia? 🤔 Strategic audio play but iHeart’s $5.5B+ debt is a massive red flag. SIRI shareholders might want to hope this one fizzles. 📉 AudioMerger
Credit Spreads Rebound, Easing Crash Concerns
Nice report from @scottcharts this morning. This one stood out, as credit spreads have quickly recovered. Even four weeks ago, one of the reasons we didn't expect a major crash like so many was spreads were still relatively calm. Follow credit...
Memory Stocks Set to Double as AI Fuels Growth
NEW: We dug into this white hot Memory Stock trade that has helped $DRAM become the fastest growing theme ETF of all time w/ BI's semiconductor analyst Jake Silverman. He explains what memory is, the AI connection, where in cycle...
Japan's Topix Cash Payouts Double, Unlock $312bn Potential
Wow. Cash payouts from companies in Japan's broad Topix index have practically doubled since the Tokyo Stock Exchange started telling companies to focus more on capital efficiency. This growth is forecast to continue, as Shrikant Kale points out, . The combination...
Danish Index Underweights Tech: Deliberate Strategy?
Danish (European) index investing is being underweight technology - I guess that is a strategy 🙃
Dynamic Currency Conversion Lets Merchants Choose Euro or Dollar
Question for a payments expert. What I pay for something by card in Spain, the reader offers me the choice to pay in euros or dollars. Obviously dollars are removed from my account. And the cafe gets euros. So what’s really going...
Japan 10‑Year Yield Hits New Cycle High
Too much politics for Tourists to focus on the entire picture of the universe, but Japan's 10yr Yield just ramped to new Cycle Highs https://t.co/tchYLfwtl8
South Korean Stocks Surge 2.2% to Record Highs
SOUTH KOREA: stocks ramp another +2.2% overnight to new all-time highs in one of the more epic stock market moves ever https://t.co/YaRonRZeXv
Goldman, Citi Lift Oil Price Forecasts to $90‑$110
Goldman and Citi strategists are boosting their oil forecasts again. GS now sees brent averaging $90 a barrel in Q4. Citi's Layton just raised his base case average price forecasts to $110/95/80/bbl for 2Q/3Q/4Q 2026, respectively, from $95/80/75/bbl. https://t.co/hI2hYmRVx1
OHGR Beats Expectations Yet Remains Risky Play
#OHGR "ahead of market expectations". ShareScope showing fwd p/e 18.5 falling to 17.9 and fwd Divvy 2.6% rising to 2.7%, BEFORE today's news and allowing for cash. Illiquid but play on NHS failure. I don't hold.
China Blocks Foreign Takeover of Manus Project
Whoa Office of the Working Mechanism for Security Review of Foreign Investment (NDRC) Issues a Security Review Decision on the Foreign Acquisition of the Manus Project The Office of the Working Mechanism for Security Review of Foreign Investment (NDRC), in accordance with...
PWR Posts OK Results, Announces 1.6p Dividend
#PWR maiden results read OK. Cash $15.3m (but most from IPO). ShareScope has fwd p/e 9.5 RISING to 11 (could be way out), but no Dividend forecasts; however PWR announced Dividend 1.6p per Share & ongoing "progressive Dividend policy". Illiquid...
Firms Expect Higher Prices, Yet Inflation Remains Stable
🇪🇺 The ECB's Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) shows an increase in selling prices expectations over the next 12 months, but also stable long-term inflation expectations, lower wage growth expectations, and tighter funding conditions. https://t.co/gOrkAXRGGm
Nike's Failure Explained: Key Lessons From Ghost
Excellent explanation for what went wrong at Nike. From a new publication on Ghost: https://t.co/8qQGqSzW3q
BYD's Patent Surge Powers China to Lead Car Exports
BYD, the company Elon Musk laughed at in 2011, is filing 52 patents per day, on average. Thanks to BYD, China now exports more cars than U.S. and Japan combined. https://t.co/v5sRfTeDFH
Brand Equity Builds Slowly, Lasts Long, yet Gets Underfunded
"Brand equity is the slowest-building and most durable layer of any consumer moat - and the easiest to underinvest in, because the returns are diffuse and the erosion is invisible in any single quarter." h/t @fmcbill https://t.co/ZiYNvQ9kS1
Nvidia Shares Halved in 2022 After 2021 Surge
It is hard to believe that the @nvidia stock was down more than 50% in 2022! After starting 2022 near $300, the stock dropped to around $146 by the end of December, driven by reduced demand in the gaming market,...
China’s Industrial Profits Surge 15.5% on Chips, Commodities
Xinhua: "Profits of China's major industrial firms increased 15.5% year on year during the January-March period, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points from the growth posted in the first two months of the year." The rise was driven by sectors that specialize...
TM's 75% Dividend Boost Sparks Stock Surge, Sets GLC Trend
TM spiked 6% at lunch break. Partly sebab umum dividend payout polisi dipertingkat kpd min 75% (sebelum ini 40-60%) di bayar setiap qtr (sebelum ini 2x setahun). Adakah ini akan drive other GLCs to follow? Maybank report: “TM’s revised dividend policy...
Check the Economic Calendar Weekly for Trading Edge
Beginner traders focus only on charts… profitable traders also study the calendar. 📅📈 One of the biggest edges you can build every Sunday is scanning the economic calendar before the new week starts. Why? Because news moves markets. Interest rates, inflation data, jobs...
SYME’s Collapse Ends
#SYME this is where it ends…with a whimper not a bang LSE at it its finest .. https://t.co/Njdk2Ntyrc
Iran Offers Blockade Lift, Strait Reopen, Nuclear Talks Delayed
According to @Axios, Iran has given the US a new proposal for reaching a deal on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade first, and postponing nuclear negotiations for a later stage. https://t.co/4oIkEaf0lH