EIA Predicts Prolonged Persian Gulf Crude Production Disruption
The US Energy Information Administration (@EIAgov) is now forecasting a rather long disruption to crude oil production in the Persian Gulf. (Note this is wellhead production rather than flows via Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't appear to include natural gas liquids, so just crude) https://t.co/JxRL8nEMli
Yahoo Launches $1.6B
Yahoo kicking off a $1.6B refi. S+550 at 98.5. Mid-to-high 9s. Apollo paid $5B for this in 2021. Existing debt matures in 2027. Let’s see how this goes
Early AI Bets Beat Building: Microsoft’s $228B Return
Microsoft invested $13 billion in OpenAI between 2019 and 2023. Their stake is now worth $228 billion. 17.6x return. The most profitable minority investment in tech history. Sometimes the best AI strategy is not building it. It is backing the right bet early.
Walmart Signals Recession, Yet Bullish Signals Remain
The Walmart indicator is flashing recession. But that’s not the full story. On the latest Jim Paulsen Show, we break down what it’s signaling, the implications of the oil shock, and the bullish indicators most investors are missing. 🎙️https://t.co/6nYM17bPMj 🍏https://t.co/JjLRDxh7gP 📺https://t.co/FzjaKKwQ5m
6% Yield Trigger Could Force US Debt Restructuring
See my 10Y yield targets then read this quote by Jeff Gundlach: “Well, I think my base case is that the long-term interest rates on treasuries will move higher until such time as they get to a level that is difficult...
Brent Futures Hit Record Backwardation Amid US‑Iran Tensions
Brent (physical and futures) still pricing for a short war Brent prices have surged into a record backwardation as the United States and Iran threaten to escalate their conflict by attacking energy infrastructure on both sides of the Persian Gulf. In the...
Iran Breaches Saudi Missile Defense, Threatens 7 M Bpd Output
Iran has successfully penetrated Saudi Arabia's missile defense systems. The strikes caused major damage to energy infrastructure, & those bypass options just went out the window. If strikes continue, nearly ~7 million barrels per day could go offline for years. #crude...
Carry Factor, VIX, and Policy Shape Family Wealth Persistence
🔬 Research links: a look at the carry factor, the VIX & economic policy, and the persistence of family wealth. https://t.co/rUj23cmfPx chart: https://t.co/gjM1ZEQ12Y https://t.co/7wwgt0KsMd
JPM Predicts AVGO Valuation Exceeds $120B Post‑earnings
After $AVGO earnings, I said ~120B was the likely number for 27. Now, looks like higher is likely. This from JPM. https://t.co/OvxZg1VUWr
Prediction Markets See 75% Chance Oil >$130, Equities Possibly Mispriced
Wait - Prediction markets are pricing a 75% chance of oil $130+ by the end of the year, and a coin flip it's $150+? I feel like if that's true, equities are not correctly priced... https://t.co/GkFbvHEOZp
Rubio: Iran's Hormuz Attacks Threaten Global Commerce
Rubio this morning on the impact of the Iran war: "The whole world’s been impacted unfortunately because Iran is violating every law known by striking commercial vessels in the Straits of Hormuz, and it’s a big problem for the world."
Spreads Inevitably Widen; Timing Depends on Shifting Signals
Spreads always widen eventually. Always. The only variable is when and how fast. $JOJO doesn't predict the date. It follows the signal. And signals are shifting. https://t.co/VeeAjLOpWn
Leveraged ETFs Hit Record $45.9B Turnover in March
Trading activity (or turnover, share volume times share price) in leveraged ETFs and ETNs reached a record $45.9 billion in March Those of you who thrive in market chaos are absolutely feasting in this particular moment https://t.co/aPtM44ka17
Homebuyer Financing Varies Widely Across Local Counties
Who is buying a home right now? Here’s a look at reported buyer financing in MLS sales in 12 local counties. This is also a good reminder that the market isn’t the same in every location. https://t.co/GRkvX7kcrU
Market May Bottom Out in May Amid Sentiment Shift
This is good news and we may bottom out in May if this continues - makret has been incredibly complacent so sentiment shift shoud help correct that.
KAI: Durable, High‑Margin Supplier Now At Attractive Valuation
$KAI is a mission-critical industrial supplier getting cheaper. With two-thirds of revenue coming from recurring parts and services, this is a durable, high-margin business trading at an attractive price. Pitch by SouthernSun Asset Management https://t.co/Aoh5GLtd0F
Long Oil, TPYP Beat Shorts on Bag7, TLT
Long Oil and $TPYP vs. Short #Bag7 and $TLT seems to be working out ok today
Houthis Threaten Bab El‑Mandeb Closure, Risk Oil Price Surge
The Houthis attempting to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait by again turning it into a shooting gallery would be a massive problem and would send oil prices into orbit. Saudis are moving their oil to Asia via the Red Sea...
VIX Stuck in Low‑Volatility ‘Chop Bucket’ All Year
CHART OF THE DAY: VIX Has Traded in the Chop Bucket for Most of 2026's 65 Trading Days https://t.co/bmwQVhQ8D3 via @hedgeye
AIXI Shows Long Bias Targeting FFIE‑Style
$AIXI long bias vs .90s this morning for $FFIE like move as goal from last nights scan @IUTraders Entry below 9:52AM 👇 https://t.co/Eobw0uIvlW
Oil Price Hikes Supercharge Devon Energy’s Cash Flow
When oil rises, shale cash flow doesn’t just grow — it accelerates. 👇 $DVN Devon Energy 851k boe/d with $1.5B quarterly operating cash flow. Capex already normalized for flat growth, so upside flows directly to FCF. Variable dividend model amplifies returns. Trades...
QQQ Reversal Looms: Bulls Must Flatten, Bears Ready to Slam
Even without the insane news this is your typical reversal at downsloping 20sma $QQQ, next step for bulls to flatten it and go through. For bears, slap down hard follow through https://t.co/31554Rc6nF
Staple Food Stocks Lag S&P by 39% Annually
We are at a year 2000 performance extreme on basic supermarket staples companies relative to the S&P 500. A basket of Campbell's, General Mills, Clorox and Conagra has underperformed the S&P by 39 percentage points per year for the last...
Peel the Information Onion: Raw Filings Beat Noise
Most investors spend 90% of their time in the outer layer of the "information onion" and wonder why their returns are mediocre. If you want an edge, you have to peel the onion. Move past the rumors and social media noise...
Energy Crisis Demands Global Cooperation, IMF & World Bank Meet
This energy crisis calls for all hands on deck & international cooperation I'll meet Monday with IMF Managing Director @KGeorgieva & World Bank President Ajay Banga on our institutions' work to support governments amid the economic impacts of the Iran war...
Dollar Slides Below Crucial 99.05 Confirmation Level
Weekly Dollar line chart (blue line is 5 SMA, only important when trending)...below 99.05 key confirmation level. https://t.co/XNW1syuTPa
TSLA Must Stay Above 342 for Call Profit
bought some 350 calls for next week. probably needs to start holding above 342 today for a bounce. $TSLA
March Rents Rise Modestly as Supply Overhang Dampens Growth
Apartment rents increased in March (the start of the leasing season), but more muted than normal. Demand remained solid despite the economic headwinds, but still playing catch up to the supply overhang from 2023-25 (biggest supply wave since 1970s). As CoStar's Grant...
Half Your Income, Index Funds, Retire Early
HOW TO RETIRE EARLY (way before age 65): Save & invest 50% of your income into index funds for 10-15 years. You can do it faster if you invest a greater percentage of your income. P.S. This is how I retired from the...
Wells Fargo Ups RDDT Forecast, Target $100B Valuation
$RDDT -- analyst at Wells Fargo just raised their 2026 Q1 estimates and 2026 full year estimates for $RDDT after channel checks with "larger brand ad partners" This is from me... With continued platform growth, better monetization and bigger data...
May WTI Crude Surges to New High, Up 20%
May WTI crude oil futures are now at a new high and up 20% from Friday's low. https://t.co/rqftGvnrgP
Wells Fargo Predicts Swift Strait of Hormuz Reopening
They are drunk in fantasyland over at WFG: "The team at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute has a base case that sees a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz occur relatively soon, as well as limited damage to Middle Eastern...
Housing Market Resilient Amid Rising Mortgage Spreads
Today's podcast discusses #mortgage spreads and how the #housing market is holding up with wartime #economics @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #chartdaddy
Trade Strong Stocks, Skip Weak Ones, Prioritize Relative Strength
📺 TRADE WHAT’S WORKING, IGNORE WHAT’S BROKEN Not every stock is created equal. Focus on stocks that show strength, hold key moving averages, and attract volume. Names like $GOOGL $AMZN can offer clean setups and follow-through, while weaker stocks like $TSLA remain...
Analytic Wealth‑floor Costs for Regime‑switching Portfolios
New paper: Dynamic Mean-Variance Portfolio Allocation under Regime-Switching Jump-Diffusions A wealth floor is a barrier. A market crash is a jump. Result: analytical terminal wealth densities, floor protection costs & de-risking glide paths - all analytic https://t.co/jbT1nAqw5M https://t.co/LkGMSr7G8n
Oppenheimer Reaffirms Buy, Fuel Surcharge Impact Minimal
$TMDX -- quality note/report this morning from Oppenheimer... they reiterated their buy rating... they reiterated their $175 price target... they made the following comments regarding fuel surcharge debate: "We have spent the last few weeks talking to various players in...
S&P Drops Three Bars, Volume Steady—Side‑liners Linger
SPs had 3 bars down off OP (negative) but pace of volume same as yesterday suggesting folks on sidelines. https://t.co/m3DyfjRblV
2027 Forward P/E Ratios Show No Market Bubble
How can we be in a bubble if these are the 2027 forward P/E multiples for some of the largest companies in the world: $MU - 4x $ADBE - 9x $CRM - 12x $META - 13x $NVDA - 15x $TSM - 16x $AVGO - 17x $ORCL - 18x $AMD...
Apple’s 200‑Day MA Under Pressure, May Break
$AAPL Daily. Multiple 200-day moving average tests for Apple over the last few weeks. Head-fake bounce yesterday. The more the 200-day is tested the more likely it is to give way. https://t.co/Ci7YFiC1lq
First 2026 Breadth Thrust Signals Positive, More Needed
We got the first breadth thrust of 2026 yesterday (at least the first of the many that I track). Is that a good sign? Yes. Is one enough? No. I prefer to see at least 4 over a two-week period....
SPY
Elevated negative gamma exposure present under spot on $SPY. It is testing a break of $655 now; if there's follow-through, $650 is the next support. As Trump's Iran ceasefire deadline approaches, the market will be looking for any catalysts.
AAPL Loses Breakout, Slides Toward 244 Support
$AAPL having trouble with its foldable smart phone (speculation). Completely gave up its breakout move above 256.00 and heading quickly to its 244.00 support 🍎
Buy When Five‑Year Earnings Valuation Doubles Current Price
François Rochon on valuation "Our valuation discipline is simple. We estimate what we believe a company can earn in five years and then apply the P/E we think the market should give it. If the resulting price is at least double...
Kwong Decision Opens Refund Claims for Penalties, Interest
“…the Kwong decision suggests that taxpayers should reevaluate penalties and interest previously paid and consider filing refund claims targeting those amounts, even when the underlying tax liability itself is not in dispute.” Kwong Opens New Path for COVID-19 Refunds https://t.co/6OGToPBe1j...
Keep Mortgage, Let Investments Outperform Costs
"I have a $190k mortgage at 3.25%. I also have $25k in savings and $175k in stocks. Should I pay off my mortgage?" I wouldn't. You'd owe capital gains tax, lose protection against inflation, potential tax benefits, and the opportunity cost is...
China Tightens Offshore Scrutiny, Dampening Tech Biotech IPOs
Stricter Chinese scrutiny of offshore vehicles a blow for tech and biotech IPO candidates Mainland’s stock market watchdog is discouraging establishment of ‘red-chip-structured’ companies in sensitive industries https://t.co/Pj3ZJqdAAm
RSI Shows No Oversold Conditions Despite SD Indicator
*As defined by 1+ standard deviation below the 50-DMA. Good stuff, but curious what others think of using this as "oversold". I'm an RSI guy and this market was never oversold for 21 days.
Housing Prices and Rent Ratios Slip Below 2022 Peaks
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 9.7% below 2022 peak https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-23-7a7
Colt CZ Thrives with Dual Listing, Cheap Valuation
Colt CZ $CZG still going strong. Easy thesis: > 🇪🇺 & 🔫 ✅ > Prague listing ❌ (great city though) > Near-term dual listing plans ✅ > Still hsd EV/EBITDA vs 15-20x for Euro peers ✅ https://t.co/Rdpy7mDI7L
Independent Inflation Gauge Correctly Predicted Turkey's CPI Decline
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's March official CPI inflation is 30.8%/yr. That's down from 31.5% in Feb. Today, I measure Turkey's inflation at 20.9%/yr. Since my measure leads the official one, I anticipated that the official number would do just what it did. It...