War‑Driven Energy Costs Revive Food
🇺🇸The food-vs-fuel debate is back amid the war-driven surge in energy costs, particularly for corn-based ethanol. Yes, 2026 U.S. corn plantings will drop from 2025, largely due to rotations. But 2026 could see the 4th largest corn area since WWII and the 2nd largest crop ever. https://t.co/nYT4ERjlyN
US Market up, but Major Stocks Face Deep Drawdowns
Despite everything the US stock mkt is up ~19% over the past yr But stocks like: NKE -75% TGT -55% MSFT -32% CRM -49% HOOD -54% COIN -59% DIS -49% are in the midst of large drawdowns Some thoughts on bottom-fishing in stocks that are getting killed: https://t.co/V0Wzw11tys https://t.co/bdBgxKx1GF
Tesla Deliveries and Future Demand Discussed on BBC
Great to be with @BenThompsonTV on @BBCWorld discussing Tesla’s deliveries and the demand path ahead 📺🎯🍿👇@BBCBreaking https://t.co/77g6Px5deV
Trump's Speech Signals Shift in Oil Market
Short but (characteristically) excellent piece from @Rory_Johnston on Trump’s speech and the oil market https://t.co/UCAlkgeCLD https://t.co/TaxA7jMxrL
No Deal Imminent; Hormuz Likely Stays Closed This Weekend
I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think we’re anywhere close to having a “deal” or the strait of Hormuz opening anytime soon. This 3 day weekend could be a absolute sh-t show and almost expect it to be...
Investors Shun BTR Projects Due to Seven‑year Resale Limit
More on the collapse of BTR construction: "Those investors are not investing right now because no one is going to invest in something that they have to sell in seven years… We’ve already stopped a lot of housing at a time...
US Blames China for Harassing Panama‑Flagged Ships
The US accused China of harassing and detaining #Panama-flagged ships after the Central American nation struck down contracts with a Hong Kong conglomerate operating ports on both sides of the Panama Canal. https://t.co/l49JKUezz4
Small Caps Reclaim Long‑Term Edge Over S&P
Small cap stocks outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 12 months (first chart). After bottoming against the S&P 500 mid-November 2025, small caps have staged a sharp recovery. This is in line with the long-term regime of smalls > bigs (second...
Australia’s EWA Sees
Australia (EWA) rare large action seeing a big IV surge with 15,000 July $29 puts bought $2.13 to $2.40 today, a country exposed to a China slowdown, stronger USD and RBA tightening
Retail Diesel Rises, but Less Sharply than WTI
WTI is important for diesel pricing, but retail diesel is set on on ULSD heating oil contract traded n NYMEX, which already saw these levels over last 10 days. Retail diesel will move up in price, but nearly as dramatic...
STX Poised for Major Breakout From Triangle Pattern
$STX close to a major league breakout to resolve a symmetrical triangle or "coil" pattern. Price has been in an equilibrium since end of Jan. A breakout to the upside could change the picture big time. https://t.co/KNFuckXlkp
Gold‑Bitcoin Momentum Converges, Undermining 60/20
My 60/20/20 model has not been spared by the current risk-off episode, as weakness in gold and international equities have offset any benefit from my underweight to bonds. Looking at the momentum curves below, it looks like the “jaws” between...
Iran Conflict Could Waste Over One Billion Barrels
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 The Billion Barrel Cost of a Longer Iran War The total volume of unproduced Gulf barrels is set to rise above one billion barrels over full shock duration; lost production in April alone will absorb nearly the entire...
Debunking the Myth of a Global Natural Gas Price
Another Victor and Uncle Albert moment as @MrMBrown and I debunk the myth of a global natural gas price. Pay attention at the back "taps sign" https://t.co/ii46KI6Uxn
Earned $685 Option Income Adding TSLL, META, HIMS
Mixed day for my portfolio where I added $TSLL, $META and $HIMS for $685 in option income. Did you do anything in the markets today?
Homebuilder Stocks Falter, Signaling Economic Weakness
$XHB Daily. Homebuilder (& home construction in $ITB ETF) stocks remain weak, rejected at 20-day m.a. today (orange line). Long-term looking like major tops, too. Poor sign for economy/consumer https://t.co/bZnRRpRU33
2026 Food Crisis Fears Ease Compared to 2022
VIDEO COLUMN: Another food crisis? The experience of 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, plus the increase in fertiliser prices, have prompted concern about another food price spike. But the situation in 2026 isn't nearly as concerning. At least, no yet. https://t.co/BjXPjnhMrG
All Major Assets Below 20-Day Trend, Awaiting First Breakout
equal weighted S&P 500 $RSP, gold, long bonds $TLT and bitcoin #BTC $BTCUSD all below the 20-day... stocks and gold tried, which is the first to close above? https://t.co/p4tm7ae6O8
Master DSCR, LTV, Debt Yield: Buyer vs Lender Views
There are 3 main debt metrics in real estate: 1. Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) 2. Loan to Value (LTV) 3. Debt Yield Here’s how to view each from both a buyer’s perspective & a lender’s perspective: 1. DSCR Definition: The DSCR is the...
Crude Jumps 11%, ES_F Barely
It's early lol...but if told me Crude would be up 11% would think ES_F be down 2%, not 0.2%...progress
Visa at $299: Strong Fundamentals Signal Buy
Deep Dive Full Thesis: Is VISA a BUY at $299? Visa just hit its 52-week low at $299, despite record Q1 revenue and a rock-solid 4.1% FCF yield. This is one of my all-time favorite companies: a true cash-printing machine with an...
SPX Bounce Success Isn’t Tied to 200‑day Average
The $SPX doesn’t need to immediately reclaim the 200-day moving average for this to qualify as a successful bounce attempt. In fact, the reflexive move off the lows over the last few days is NOT the most important part—these sharp...
Dollar's Rise Tied to US Rates, Near 100 Resistance
With rate cuts being priced out of the market, the dollar index has strengthened from 95.6 to 100.5. I think the dollar’s recent strength has more to do with US rates than with geopolitics, and my guess is that the...
Tesla's 186× PE Stays High Amid Falling Earnings
$TSLA trades at 186x earnings. Given declining earnings, the PE will remain high unless the stock declines, which might be hard for some to comprehend. https://t.co/wc9fE48KQC
Patience Outside Liquidity Traps Gives Trading Edge
The market didn’t beat you. You just entered before the move was ready. Liquidity is always taken first. Then the real direction unfolds. Most traders react inside the trap. Smart money waits outside it. Patience is not optional in trading. It is the edge. Save this if you...
RKT Aims to Close Above 10‑EMA and 21‑MA
$RKT daily chart watching for a close over both 10ema and 21ma daily. Still own full here https://t.co/fyiPWdwoxl
Brent Oil Surges to $141.37, Highest Since 2008
Physical oil hits its highest level since 2008 *DATED BRENT OIL PRICE SOARS TO $141.37/BBL, HIGHEST SINCE 2008 https://t.co/OkcbcnE3kg
March S&P Divergence Raises Concerns Ahead of Strong April
The $SPX closed out March with a clear contrast to the average performance of the month historically (past 75 years). April has averaged the second best month of the year over that time frame. If we deviate again from that...
California March Home Sales Near Decade High, San Jose Leads
Homes for Sale in California Rose to the 2nd Highest for March in at Least a Decade as Demand Withered: The Biggest Markets. In the San Jose metro (Silicon Valley), active listings hit at least a 10-year record for March. But...
QQQ Mirrors 2006 Pattern, Bottom Likely in May
$QQQ - I've scanned past price patterns to compare it with the price action since the late October top and the year that has the highest correlation is 2006. If current action continues to follow the 2006 script QQQ will...
Private Credit Strain Could Spike Borrowing Costs, Stall Tech Boom
The Economist: "As private-credit funds’ woes intensify, they will raise the cost of borrowing for firms across the economy, at a time when the Iran war is weighing on companies’ margins. The cost of debt in public markets has already...
New Hedge Fund Returns Table Shows Top Performers
Hedge fund returns table with many more names, including Citadel, Point72, Verition and more https://t.co/LBkCq0Uiq9
Crude Overbought Signals Rising Downside Vulnerability
Prior to the President’s address, the NDR Hormuz Stress Index began showing early signs of easing. Crude markets are tight, overbought and sentiment is excessively optimistic. Overbought conditions have historically seen low or below average returns but not necessarily outright...
S&P 500 Mirrors Intraday Treasury Yield Swings
$SPX is tracking intraday peaks and troughs in Treasury yields very closely as macro correlations remain elevated #fairleadstrategies https://t.co/9bi1kaFWxh
Q1 Corn Use Surprises Market, Implied Estimates Rise
1. This chart is drawn from my Monday farmdoc webinar that I did with @JosephJanzen after the USDA reports. It shows first quarter (implied) total corn use estimated based on quarterly grain stocks and the market surprise in...
SWMR's IPO Marks Early Promise in Drone Tech
$SWMR means business since IPO. Fresh IPO that hit the market last month in the aerospace & defense industry. People say this is the "Palantir of drones," but revenue is still young and it's early stage. Fun story to watch develop.
VFS Surges; 6K May‑5 Calls Bought Today
VFS quietly on an insane run last few weeks, 6K May 5 calls buying today
Python Reduces Portfolio Optimization to Four Lines
Stop trading with Excel. Start trading with Python. Portfolio optimization is literally 4 lines of Python code:
Gold Sellers Beware: Iran's CNY Deal Triggers Arbitrage
They’ll hold a meeting, realize they can’t open it if the US couldn’t, & then just agree to pay Iran in CNY… …and the easiest/only way to secure CNY is by buying physical gold in USD and selling that gold to...
Fed Model Returns: Rates Matching Equities Threaten Stocks
One of my main themes since the rate reset in 2022 is that the Fed model is “back.” The Fed model, popularized by Alan Greenspan during the 1980’s, holds that when the risk-free rate (Treasuries) is competitive with risky assets...
Short‑Term Losses Mask Long‑Term Defense Innovation Gains
Given reports this week that Pete Hegseth tried to buy defense stocks prior to launching the Iran war, much attention has been paid to the failure of that trade. The index he attempted to buy, IDEF, has fallen ~13% over...
US Soy Exports to China Slightly Up, Q1 Plummets
🇺🇸USA exported 2.43 million metric tons (89 mbu) of soybeans to China in February, slightly above the month's five-year average. Q2 (Dec-Feb) 2025/26 U.S. bean shipments to China edged the year-ago Q2 volume by about one cargo, but Q1 2025/26 was...
USDA Planting & Grain Stock Data Signal Market Shifts
While the world (rightfully) focuses on Iran and the price of oil, the USDA released the March Prospective Plantings and the latest Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on Monday. I joined Joseph Janzen for a farmdoc webinar shortly after the...
USD/CHF Surges to Yearly High, Near Breakout Levels
Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF Rally Hits Yearly High- Breakout Levels in Sight https://t.co/eNkhFNaLMN Short Video Breakdown: https://t.co/hWbiKrYO6e $USDCHF Weekly Chart https://t.co/bxIE9pEJrt
WTI Gains $110, Reaches Biggest Brent Premium Since 2008
US-based WTI crude oil is up around 110 with today's surge following President Trumps address to the nation yesterday. Notably, this puts WTI (US-benchmark) to a ~3 premium to Brent. That's the first premium (on a weekly basis) since Jan...
Turkey's $40bn Lira Defense Mirrors 2025 Intervention
Factoring in gold, I estimate Turkey has intervened to the tune of $40 bn in March 2026 to defend the Lira. That's the same as in March and April 2025 after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, an episode that ended...
Higher Prices Won’t Leave Americans Without Energy
This is correct. Americans will pay higher prices, but aren't going to run out of energy.
Tracking QQQ and SPY Weekly High‑Low Ranges
$QQQ this weeks recent high 587.74, recent low 555.60 $SPY this weeks high 658.52, low 629.28. Levels I am watching
Sovereign Spreads Lag Behind FX in Pricing Fundamentals
also interesting that sovereign spreads have widened—you’ve seen terms of trade differentiation in FX but sov debt has been slower to price differing country-by-country macro fundamentals
Sellers Return: New Listings Up 9% in March
Sellers have been coming back to the market this year after stepping back last year. New listings in 2026 are slightly higher than one year ago, and that’s thanks to a stronger March that had almost 9% more new listings....