Markets Rally on Ceasefire: Conviction or Buy‑the‑Dip?
My video for the week ahead: Markets Rally as US-Iran Ceasefire Extends - Conviction or 'Buy the Dip'? https://t.co/w1MCHHfY2k https://t.co/9RJlM8Up9V
Graham Prioritized Tangible Book Value Over Accounting Goodwill
Most investors think a high book value means a cheap stock. Graham didn't. He wanted tangible book value, assets you can actually touch, sell, or liquidate. Goodwill-heavy book value is an accountant's opinion. Tangible equity is a margin of safety.
Private Credit Talk: Focus on Their Fundraising Motives
Every major player in the industry has something to say about private credit. Before you read any of it, ask one question: what are they raising, and how does this help them raise it? https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/p/private-credit-unfiltered-everyone
S&P 500 Posts Historic Three‑Week Streak, Gains Accelerate
Records are made to be broken. First time in history the S&P 500 was up 3% for three consecutive weeks and each week gained more than the previous week. 🥇 https://t.co/fB3IpQSNbG
War on Iran Pushes US Gas Prices Above $4 per Gallon
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, prices at the pump have JUMPED by $1.15. The national US average just hit $4.13/gallon. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = CREATING AMERICAN PAIN AT THE PUMP. https://t.co/2D7sRK3hnJ
Oil Dips, but Hormuz Ceasefire Keeps Markets Wary
Oil prices are falling, but don't celebrate at the pump just yet. The Strait of Hormuz is "open" — for now. We're 5 days into a 10-day ceasefire. A lot can still change. https://t.co/RUshSF8tJh
Vol Sellers Fade as Inverse Volatility Spikes, Then Stalls
From the $SPX low on 3/30 through 4/14, $SPX was up 9.8% while $SVIX (inverse vol) rocketed 31% higher. Since 4/14, $SPX is up another 2.3% while $SVIX has run out of gas, up a measly 0.7%. Vol sellers have...
Record Markets Hide Significant 52‑Week Drawdowns
As the stock market reaches new records, here are the current drawdowns from 52-week highs underneath the surface... Hint: this is a normal look @finviz_com https://t.co/5HKxQKV6ht
Oil Prices Plunge as Iran Claims Hormuz Open
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices cratered and term structure flattened on Friday following Iran’s declaration that Hormuz is “open” despite the fact that little traffic has actually managed to cross the Strait today. Summary below, link in...
Low Fixed Expenses, High Flexibility Safeguard Retirement
A financial plan runs a thousand Monte Carlo simulations across different market return scenarios. The goal is to make sure the worst case does not wipe you out before you reach 95. The plan is never finished. Run it today,...
Right‑angled Broadening Triangle Bullish Above 25,400
It is called a right angled broadening triangle It is bullish unless price retreats back below 25,400 Read about it in Edwards and Magee, but NEVER in an edition more recent than the 5th. The newer editions have been co-opted and corrupted...
April S&P New Highs Historically Signal Strong Year
3 new highs in April for the S&P 500. Interesting as strong as this month is, it doesn't see a ton of new ATHs. But the 19 other years it hit a new ATH in April saw the full year higher...
Resources Lag; only XLK, XLY Outpace S&P
Resource stocks $XLE $XLB were down this week While only $XLK and $XLY beat the S&P 500 $SPY https://t.co/NbqvDTt6rQ
Kazaks Cautions: ECB May Not Raise Rates Soon
Kazaks warns against assuming the ECB’s next move will be a hike https://t.co/D88xszH8pz via @jrandow https://t.co/wDW8qFxiYT
Late‑month Buys Pay Off as Markets Rally 5%
What a week - $SPX up 3.5%, $DJIA up 2.6% and $QQQ up 5%. Off the lows on 3/30 $SPX 11%, $DJIA up 8% and $QQQ up 15%. Good to have been buying in the past month as...
Market Optimism: 61% of S&P 500 Above 200‑day MA
61% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day MA. We are in the optimism zone, but not euphoric. Blow-off tops show up at 80%+ Lots of participation and very strong momentum.
Vol Trading Thrives Whenever Fed Steers Markets
2018: Great year for vol trading 2020: Historically great year for vol trading 2024: Good year for vol trading 2025: Great year for vol trading 2026 (Q1): Good start for vol trading All under “Fed control”…….. Lol
Industrials Forward P/E Near Record Highs vs Market
The forward P/E of the industrials sector relative to that of the broader market remains near record highs. ty @augurinfinity https://t.co/XZoDHelWSz https://t.co/doqKhFeI1Y
S&P Posts Third Straight 3%+ Week, Rare Historical
Make that 3 consecutive 3%+ weeks for the S&P 500. The precedent? Week's ending: 6/5/2020 9/3/1982 That's it.
Market Appeared Set to Drop,
Looked like we might sell off into the close, but it was really just flat 130pm-4pm https://t.co/wPYLDl6exR
Nasdaq's 17% Surge Near Historic Rally Benchmark
Nasdaq Composite +17% over the last 3 weeks... that's not far from its best-ever rally (since the 1970s). Since the dot-com bubble/bust, only 2008 and 2020 saw larger surges. https://t.co/aQKLdMsoFU
Due Diligence, Not Promissory Notes, Protects Your Money
A word to the wise, a promissory note is not your savior. Your ability to do proeory due dilligence is. Give me a follow on IG to learn how I keep my money safe while investing aggressively.
Friday Rally Sets up Painful Monday for Under‑allocated Investors
Big week and it seems like they're gonna run it up into the Friday close. Will be very interesting to see what Monday brings. Another gap higher and the under allocated folks are really going to be feeling the pain.
Hold Only Strong Stocks Through Earnings for Profit
Holding let it rides into ER comes with risk. I did hold $NFLX let it rides and just sold a rung of the ladder made really good $. I know not as much as I would had...
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID Levels, Live Stream Tomorrow
I'm doing a live stream tomorrow morning at 9:30 am (ET) with a summary of all the chatter around this week's IMF/WB Spring meetings, including a discussion of this chart, which shows that EM outflows over the past month were...
15‑Minute Opening Range Break Profits $CAR Long
$CAR made some money back on the long side. Literally all you have to do is play a 15 minute opening range break.
Quant's 600+ SP
A quant buddy told me on the lows that we’d slingshot 600+ SPZ and NATH before the end of April. Respect given for nailing that call. You know who you are. Wish I had followed… https://t.co/c5wCz1ApXJ
Compound Interest Lets Your Earnings Grow on Themselves
Simple interest earns a flat percentage on your original deposit. $1,000 at 10% pays $100 a year, every year, unchanged. However, Compound interest earns that same 10% on your new balance each year, so your interest starts earning its own interest.
Gulf Oil Damage Means Two-Year Recovery Even if Strait Reopens
My view on @cgtnamerica on the long-term impacts of the Strait of Hormuz closure: "The fallout from the Gulf situation will cast its shadow for a while. 80 petroleum & refining facilities have been damaged. Even if the Strait opens tomorrow,...
SPX Sets Record, Bitcoin Surpasses $75k
$SPX just hit a new ALL-TIME HIGH above 7100! 📈 Meanwhile, #Bitcoin is finally clearing $75k as risk appetite returns to the tape. 🚀 I'm also answering your questions on "Coil" patterns and music theory in today's Friday MAILBAG. 📊🎶🎺 CHART...
Hormuz Closure Could Cut Global Energy, Drop GDP 10%
With Iran tensions flaring, a Strait of Hormuz shutdown could slash 10% of global energy. That means a straight 10% GDP collapse, no ifs or buts.
AVGO
$AVGO still watching 412 area in time. This name like so many needs to base . First level below is the gap. Take a look at your daily chart. No need for me to post mine
Goldman Sachs Boosts MSCI EM Target, Forecasts 10% Upside
GS: We raise our 12m MSCI EM target by ~4% to 1750, implying ~10% upside over 12 months $EEM $VWO https://t.co/Yxz4w8EPPv
North Asia EPS Upgrade Raises MSCI EM Forecast
GS: Upgrades to North Asia EPS growth push our 2026/27 MSCI EM EPS growth forecast to 34%/14% from 23%/13% https://t.co/jK4UGxp0LY
Track Normalized FCF/Share via Long‑Term Cycle Analytics
This is a great question One of the most important output metrics in any model, in my opinion, is normalized FCF/share. There are many assumptions that lead to your FCF/share metric, including revenue & normalized margin assumptions. But quarter to quarter and year...
Fannie Mae Predicts Steady 6.1% Mortgage Rates Through 2027
#NEW Fannie Mae's revised forecast expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average... 6.2% in Q3 2026 6.1% in Q4 2026 6.1% in Q1 2027 6.1% in Q2 2027 6.1% in Q3 2027 6.1% in Q4 2027 https://t.co/AhH8SZ64tC
DRAM ETF Hits $1B in 10 Days, Shattering Norms
$DRAM hitting $1B in 10 days is beyond shocking. For context, here's the 4 biggest theme ETFs and how long it took each to hit $1B: $PAVE (1,000 days), $IGF (1800 days), $GRID (3,000 days) and $AIQ (1500 days)
Stock Volatility Approaches Crude and Gold Levels
What's next? Wrong on stock market volatility catching up to crude and gold volatility so far
Markets Flip: From Losses to Gains in Weeks
YTD returns a little more than 2 weeks ago: S&P 500 -7.1% Nasdaq 100 -9.0% R2000 -2.5% Now: S&P 500 +4.4% Nasdaq 100 +5.6% R2000 +12.2% It's a strong opinions, loosely held market
Current Rally Mirrors 2015‑2016 Market Pattern
So you gotta zoom in to see the details but something about this move felt familiar I think my only real notes would be a 50 WMA test, 30+ Vix and a double digit V after a prior 90% rally....
Iran War’s End Won’t End Supply Chain Risks
Is the Iran War Almost Over? Why That Doesn't End the Supply Risks. #oatt #oott https://t.co/SUroio6mpX
AI Could Transform SNDK Into High‑Growth Memory Leader
Is $SNDK a cyclical memory stock, or will AI make memory a stable grower? $SNDK +2,838% 1Y 🚀 +234% YTD 🟢 - Weak Margins - Weak Growth since 2022 - INSANE Outlook from AI - 157% 2028 FCF CAGR - Reasonable Valuation - 1% Above Consensus Price...
Gold/Silver Ratio Boosts USD Confidence and Profit Potential
Applying the Gold/Silver ratio can be used for showing off..but also making money in bolstering confidence in USD-mkts & metals #forex $FXE $UUP $TNX $XAUUSD #XAGUSD https://t.co/sAHfIgKC1u
Turn Your Home Into a Tax-Deductible Business Asset
The Augusta Rule lets you rent your home to your business up to 14 times a year at the going market rate. That payment moves from your business bank account to your personal account and the business writes it off...
NASDAQ Gains 5% in 2026 Without Tech Giants
The NASDAQ is up over 5% in 2026. This is an index that includes tons of software companies, and doesn't include the companies that are supposedly going to devour the software companies. And yet it's still up over 5%
Microsoft Rallies, Hits R3, Returns to S2
good intraday price action in $MSFT today. S2 buying. runs to R3. return trip to S2. https://t.co/kl1ZBogVBs
Buy VIX High, Transfer Risk Low—Don’t Wait
Everybody's asking me: "When's the next VIX spike, Alex?" I called Spike 1. I've been pointing at Spike 2 for weeks. But here's the truth — don't wait for the ice cream van that doesn't turn up. Probability is high. Certainty is not. Buy...
Nasdaq 100 Forward P/E Drops Below Long‑Term Averages
This will actually blow your mind. The Nasdaq 100 Forward P/E is now ~22.4x, below its 10-year average (22.9x) and well under the 5-year average (24.7x). Trailing valuation multiples are higher, but so are earnings growth estimates.
Cattle Prices Slip $
About a 9 buck break in cattle from the highs in short order is probably about enough. Things are not as much one sided as they were from a few days ago. Equilibrium restored.
Hormuz Optimism Pushes Dated Brent Below $100
Hormuz optimism not just a "paper" market phenomenon. Backwardation coming off across the full Brent curve, and Dated Brent just fell back below $100/bbl for the first time since March 11th. https://t.co/KHm34R8Ort