Rate Hike Odds Surpass Cuts for First Time
The odds of a rate hike over the next three months is now higher than the odds of a cut. A month ago, no one would have believed this. https://t.co/a9K0cTXJS1
Take Profits, Embrace Happiness, Not Every Market Move
In trading, active management is key - you can have big targets, but you need to get out sometimes just in case. Taking money off the table, as we call it in our Mentorship program. That is why giving a...
New Signals Boost Momentum‑Mean Reversion Switching Strategy
Bonus momentum and mean-reversion switching strategy update with new signals. $TLT $GLD $TLT Link in reply below. 👇
Global LNG Market Visualized in New Interactive Map
Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay at Phenomenal World posted this nice map of the global LNG market. It's featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/hQaQMt4GjH
Full Rate Cut Postponed Until March 2027.
"While markets previously anticipated a cut as early as this July and two more by next spring, the current trajectory has moved aggressively, with a full cut now not priced in until March 2027." -S&P Global Vörös
NV Office-to-Residential Surge Challenges Portfolio Strategies
The TSA HQ in Arlington is becoming 637 apartments. Down the road, 675 units just opened in a converted Falls Church office park. Northern Virginia’s office-to-residential wave is moving fast. Is your portfolio positioned for it or exposed by it? #commercialrealestate...
TraderTVLIVE Returns; Nvidia Keynote Triggers Sell‑off, Oil Drags Market
After a little bit of a scare, @traderTVLIVE will be back on Youtube at 8am ready to Air. The $NVDA GTC keynote turned into sell the news while oil prices threaten to continue to give the market the blues....
China’s Fuel Ban Strains Regional Supply, Sparks Contract Disputes
China's fuel export ban last week is already rippling through the region. Bangladesh, which relies on Chinese diesel and jet fuel, has come out and asked Beijing to honour its contracts. Australia imported a third of its jet fuel from China...
Cross‑border Property Ownership Complicates Estate Planning
"If I buy property in Singapore and I already own something in KL, how does that affect what happens to both if something happens to me?" That question told me everything about where this client was at.
FMS Investors Hit Peak Commodity, EM Equity Overweights
BofA: In March, FMS investors were 34% net overweight commodities, the most since Apr'22. Net 53% were overweight emerging market equities, the highest since Feb’21. https://t.co/g0RUiBm0cN
Ask the Right Questions to See Through the Market
5 questions that separate investors who see the market from investors who see through it. Swipe. Same data, completely different intelligence depending on your role. Which question would change your allocation this quarter? https://t.co/jl0egsdwNw
Baird Boosts Micron Forecast on AI-Driven DRAM Surge
Thoughts? What do you think? Micron estimates raised by Baird on surging DRAM pricing and AI demand
Pakistan Faces LNG Shortage Within a Month
Pakistan’s LNG supply at risk of running out in less than a month 🇵🇰 🚢 Officials warn that there may not be enough gas to meet power needs after April 14 Pakistan imports 99% of its LNG from Qatar. But supplies...
RBA Narrowly Hikes; Trump‑Xi Summit Delayed; China Curtails Fertilizer
RBA Hikes in a 5-4 Decision, Trump-Xi Meeting Postponed, Beijing Tightens Restrictions on Fertilizer: There have been three developments to note. First, President Trump’s trip to China has been postponed by at least a month. The White House linked it...
Iran Conflict Spikes Fertilizer Costs, Deepening Farmers' Woes
"Minnesota corn farmers withstood a trade war. The war in Iran is the next cost challenge. The conflict is increasing the cost of an essential fertilizer. With corn prices already down, it’s another financial headache for farmers." https://t.co/NT2pX8mfN9
Austin's Housing Surplus Turns Market Into Buyer’s Paradise
"With supply far outweighing demand, Austin has turned into a firm buyer’s market - giving house hunters more options, more negotiating power and more time to shop around." 😲 https://t.co/d4pZOxWqcs
US Refining Margins Nearly Double, 3‑2‑1 Crack Hits $40
U.S. REFINERS’ gross margin for transforming crude oil into gasoline and diesel has almost doubled since the start of the year as the war in the Middle East hits global fuel supplies even harder than crude oil availability. Stylised margins...
Brent's 120‑to‑40 Cycle May Be Ending
Brent Crude's Pattern: $120 Highs Lead to $40 Lows - Brent crude price surges to $120 a barrel have been resolved near $40 for about two decades. Has that pattern changed? This key macroeconomic question of 2026 may be guided...
Canada’s Housing Market Plummets 20%, Quietly Absorbed by Stable Finance
Canadian residential real estate is down -20% from its peak in 2022, a crash in prices worse than the U.S. in 2008. But no one is talking about it, primarily because the financial system is well-functioning (so far), as creditors do...
Massive CTA and Systematic Sell‑offs Set to Pressure Stocks
From GS on Flows: - CTAs Sold $80B over the last month - “Length has gone from >8 out of 10 to ~6.5 now, projected to go near 4.5-5 all else equal” - Systematics are estimated to sell $70B in the next *week*...
RBA Hike Ahead,
3 Developments: RBA hike, and mkt favors another one by mid-year. Trump-Xi meeting postponed by at least a month. Reason? War. Beijing tightens exports of fertilizer components. Oil firm but in yesterday's range. USD quiet. See https://t.co/QYsOxDPAlE...
Key Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know
1 Pin Bar (Nen tu choi gia) 📊 2 Engulfing (Nen nhan chim) 📊 3 Inside Bar Breakout📊 4 Fake pattern (Pha vo gia) 📊 5 Morning Star⭐/ Evening Star⭐ 📊 7 Long wick Rejection ( Rau nen cuc dai tu choi gia) 📊
Record US Private Credit Defaults Drive Gold, Silver Rally
Rising U.S. private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, signaling credit stress & shadow banking risks. This erodes confidence in paper assets, investors flock to hard money with no counterparty risk. Bullish for gold & silver as safe-haven hedges. https://t.co/TcCYRkMkIZ
War’s End Won’t Instantly Revive Commodity Output
I think the most dangerous thing that I see in markets currently is this assumption that, as soon as the war ends, commodity production will just switch back on again. It won’t. It can’t. Commodity production is not like a manufacturing...
Fast Moves Drain Liquidity; Slow Moves Build Orders
If price moves fast, liquidity is being taken. If price moves slow, orders are being built. Learn the difference.
Seize Rare Opportunities with Great Managers or Regret
“So you do get an occasional opportunity to get into a wonderful business that’s being run by a wonderful manager. And, of course, that’s hog heaven day. If you don’t load up when you get those opportunities, it’s a big...
Iran Tensions Spike Oil Volatility, Brent‑WTI Spread Hits 3‑year High
The headlines around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are flipping daily, which is keeping #oil volatility (realized and implied) elevated. Meanwhile, the Brent-WTI spread has jumped back near its highest in 3 years. https://t.co/h3S81SQWjn
New Analysis Finally Explains China’s Economy‑stock Market Split
The divergence between the performance of China’s economy and its stock market has been a topic for decades. This may finally explain it. https://t.co/Kuo5CiNr8e https://t.co/6CgHtlepQL
Lynch’s 10 Principles: Simple Rules Over Economic Overanalysis
Peter Lynch once said: "If you spend 14 minutes a year thinking about economics, you have just wasted 12 minutes." Here are his 10 investing principles to navigate uncertainty:
RBA Hike Hints at Tighter Path for Single‑mandate Banks
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates by 25 basis points. Markets suspect this telegraphs what's on the cards for other single-mandate central banks, such as the Bank of England and the ECB. While a hike isn't...
RBA Raises Rates to 4.1% as BOJ Stalls
The RBA hiked its benchmark rate to 4.1%. That is the first major central bank this week of a long list. If you want to pit it against the most prominent carry counterpart and contrast against rate of change, it...
RBA Leads Rate Hikes, Others Remain Silent
All talk, no action from other central banks this week, except for the RBA which hiked rates to 4.10%, the highest among DM central banks. https://t.co/JKCGcBPwIG
Rising
The dream comes with a price Awesome to see the demand All ZHCs will need treasuries
US Diesel Prices Surge Past $5, Fueling Freight Inflation
CHART OF THE DAY: US retail average diesel prices have topped the $5-per-gallon barrier for the 2nd time ever. That’s freight inflation — and another big hit to the country’s farming economy (and it has received many hit since...
US Gas Prices YTD Rise Exceeds 2022 Levels
🇺🇸 The year-to-date increase in US gasoline prices is now larger than in 2022. https://t.co/2FtHzNrQpA
Avoid Emerging Market Indexes: Consistently Underperforming
1/ I've said it before and will say it again: avoid EM index investing. Their performance has lagged, both in the short-term and in the ultra-long run. https://t.co/MkPIAWW0Jf
Balaji Telefilms: High‑Volatility Play, Potential Multi‑Bagger
Current Market Price (CMP): ₹92.55 (NSE) | ₹92.00 (BSE) Balaji Telefilms: Multi-Bagger Potential or Short-Term Swing? 📈 Trending Potential: High Volatility / Pivot Watch [ balaji telefilms share, altt digital, indian media stocks, ekta kapoor stocks, small cap multibaggers, tv production stocks, nse...
ETF Combo Beats Benchmark: Higher Returns, Lower Risk
ETF Combo 30% $SPHB 30% $GLD 40% $DBMF (managed futures) Quarterly rebalance only. CAGR 16.5% vs 14.0% maxDD -19.8% vs -33.8% Vola 13.3% vs 20.1% Sharpe: 0.97 vs...
Oil Slides as Iran Opens Hormuz, Markets Rally
Crude oil prices ticked down after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all but its "enemies", lifting stocks and pulling down the US dollar. Is the crisis ending? #oil #IranWar #stocks #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/1OST27OxI9
China Tightens Hong Kong IPO Path, Targets Red‑Chip Firms
China is clamping down on a key route for Hong Kong IPOs after a boom in share sales While stopping short of an outright ban, regulators have recently discouraged IPO applications from so-called red-chip firms https://t.co/bDNaEtHWkS
Scale Position Size with Volatility for Consistent Futures Trading
Day 8 running my automated trading strategy on Micro Nasdaq futures (MNQ). Two clean trades. Market was choppy, so position size was reduced to 2 MNQ contracts to control risk and stay consistent. Same rule based execution. Same entry confirmation. No overtrading. Adjusting position size based...
Markets Shrug as China Disruptions Echo 2020
I was in Hong Kong in Feb 2020 and remember this being a very weird time. Investors had been worrying about the US-China trade war under Trump 1.0. Then China effectively shut down most of its economy and markets basically...
Iran Hikes Oil Price, OPEC Cuts, Shipments Flow
The Iranians ramped the price of oil, forced OPEC to shut in a bunch of barrels, and are still shipping theirs with no issues… Seriously, tell me the boys at Vitol aren’t watching this move in awe…🤣
Oversold Market Signals Nearing S&P 200
Historically oversold market based on the McClellan Oscillator, right as the S&P 500 hits the upward sloping 200-day MA. https://t.co/TqybXrzkXG
Zweig Breadth Thrust Nears Red Line in Nine Days
Zweig Breadth Thrust watch. Can it get to the red line over the next nine days? https://t.co/vwblqtvrUm
Sacramento’s Suburbs Grow Northeast, Southeast, Not Toward Bay
Why did Sacramento's suburbanization extend the to the northeast and southeast, rather than to the north, west, or southwest—toward the prosperous Bay Area? (1/2) https://t.co/fYIcWzLEsu
Trade FOMC: Align Timing, Levels, and Liquidity
FOMC is the biggest event this week. Interest rate decisions and Fed commentary can shift market direction, volatility, and momentum across Nasdaq and gold. Price often reacts aggressively around these releases, especially near key supply and demand levels. If you’re trading this week,...
Fed Faces Tension Over Near‑Term Rate Cut Projections
The Fed might prefer to say nothing this week. But the projections force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed presidents told me they'd want to avoid projecting near-term cuts in the current situation. Whether sitting officials do...
Trade Daily Trend Flexibly: Bulls, Bears Profit
Good money to be made trading the trend for the day. Classic Taylor Trading Technique. It's OK to have longer-term bearish or bullish technicals, but know your style and stay flexible. With this chart, bulls make money, bears make...
Slow Line Poised to Dip Below Zero Soon
Good odds this "slow line" on the weekly osc will drop below zero. getting closer.... https://t.co/xkXLjyapcb