Tech‑heavy Indices Slump to Multi‑
Checking in on the previous years' preferred risk asset concentrations. The Mag 7 relative to the broader tech-oriented Nasdaq 100 is at a 9-month low. Nasdaq 100 relative to the Dow has bounced but still well off Oct records. SPX to VEU (rest of world) 16% off record https://t.co/14xD24V898
Resuming Hormuz Traffic Crucial Amid Iran War Uncertainty
My BNN Bloomberg conversation from earlier today for those who missed it. Talked about the state and trajectory of the Iran War, the growing physical-sentiment disconnect in oil markets, and how nothing really matters unless traffic through the Strait of Hormuz...
Mortgage Rates Dip, Spread Widens to 214 Bps
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.48% Same day last year: 6.80% -------------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.34% Spread today: 214 bps
We Reveal New Portfolio Moves in V and MPC
Today on @CNBCClosingBell with @ScottWapnerCNBC, I discussed our latest portfolio moves in $V and $MPC. ➡️Link: https://t.co/bovmiq2w00 (3/25/2026) @cwp_advisor https://t.co/Pegen7YKiD
2019 Book Predicted Missile‑Drone Dominance
2019 book that predicted the “missiles + drones > naval ships” dynamic we are watching play out in real time in Hormuz. Martyanov’s warnings apparently fell on deaf ears in DC unfortunately. https://t.co/4nsMkPDhTm
Dynamic‑3 Ensemble Remains Resilient Amid Market Turmoil
The Dynamic-3 ensemble has held well during this market turmoil. Link in reply below. 👇 https://t.co/GswnvL4aDS
IEA Chief to Brief EU Ministers on Iran War Impact
IEA chief to brief EU finance ministers on Iran war impact this week https://t.co/MQ3pSEFj3B via @europressos https://t.co/7Eo8OA83pz
Gas Crunch Could Spur Solar‑Battery Leap in Emerging Markets
Interesting debate here between JP Morgan's Michael Cembalest and @JigarShahDC on the latest Open Circuit episode. Will the global natural gas crunch accelerate solar + batteries in emerging markets that are considering deeper investments in LNG? Michael argues that comparisons people...
Bonds and Gold Drop, Boosting Money‑Market and Buffer ETFs
Where Have All the Hedges Gone? - @psarofagis channeling Paula Cole into a timely note today re how once again bonds fell with stocks. This time gold fell too. This is why Money Mkt Funds and Buffer ETFs are increasingly...
Hold Off Buying MSFT Until It Falls Below $360
I put it in writing on Feb 9. No buys on $MSFT until it bleeds into $380–$360. Why? Liquidity doesn’t disappear. It gets taken. Now we’re under the 200 WMA. Right on schedule. And suddenly—news drops. AI. Nuclear. NVDA. The usual lifeline when things start slipping. This is...
Meta's Sub‑20x PE Signals Cheap Growth Bet
$META forward PE has dropped below 20x It's quite cheap given the growth it has been able to maintain. You're getting for free these bets: Oculus / Wearables / AI. Not as compelling as Google's 2025 stock price when you got...
S&P 500 Stays Below 200‑Day Moving Average
4 days below the 200dma for the S&P 500 @stockcharts More thoughts from me: https://t.co/q4uxCqxeRV https://t.co/dXZykXt9ov
Small Caps Outperform Big, Ratio Hits Century‑High
Over the last century the smallest stocks (green, LHS) have beaten the biggest stocks (red, LHS) by six times (blue, RHS). But not in a straight line. The market has cycled. And the cycles were long. The blue line shows the...
New StockChartsTV Video Breaks Down $SPX Trends
Check out the latest video I recorded for @StockChartsTV @StockCharts yesterday. All about $SPX. This thumbnail also marks one of the last times I put on a tie. 😎
Iran Conflict Threatens U.S. Housing Recovery Beyond Rates
How the Iran war could crush the U.S. housing recovery, and it's not just about mortgage rates https://t.co/ecPYsnXmA5
Oil Prices Juggle Conflicting US, Iran, Israel Headlines
This volatile oil price remains at the mercy of a flood of (often-contradictory) headlines emanating from the three warring parties — US, Iran, and Israel. #economy #oil #markets #energy #middleeastwar
Oil Shock Forces Fed, Bonds, and Outflows Higher
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
Oil Surge Signals Market Crash, Gold Surge, Inflation Spike
Oil prices up 20% in weeks. 1 day alone added 9%. In 1973, a supply shock like this wiped 45% off the stock market and sent gold up over 2000%. I have spent 55 years building an alternative framework for understanding how...
Staying Long on Akamai Beats Failing Software Sector
RPK @RPKent nice job staying long of Tech via $AKAM while Software continues to implode
Hormuz Crisis Threatens Europe, Fuels US Inventory Uncertainty
🚨Hormuz Crisis goes global: Europe is heading for energy shortages, massive price spikes, and deeper reliance on Russian energy. 🚨What is next for US commercial crude inventories after the SPR release? Daily Energy Report https://t.co/W33F3aHN9V
Quality Factor's Historic Underperformance Poised for Sharp Reversal
Try to remember that just 3 months ago we were in the middle of the most bizarre underperformance by the Quality factor this century. Almost 1999 on the performance gap. Historically, when this chart snapped, it snapped hard the other...
Smart Traders Enter on VWAP Pullbacks, Not Breakouts
Breakouts look exciting… until they fail 🚫 Smart traders wait for the VWAP pullback 📉 That’s where value lives. That’s where I enter. Drop “SETUP” 👇 #TraderLife #VWAP #PriceAction
Supply and Distress Drive Home Price Cycles
Supply and distress supply are the big keys; we have 84 years of data on this and many economic cycles with nominal national home prices data. https://t.co/7ojUXodFpL
Markets Hedge Both Ceasefire and War, Await Resolution
The market prices a ceasefire and full-scale war simultaneously. Diplomatic pause: oil -10%. Iran denial: oil +4%. SPY -0.80%. Same week. Opposite pricing. 48 hours apart. Beneath the whipsaw, TLT keeps bleeding. Spreads widen. Copper stays down 10% monthly. Breadth broken. Geopolitical noise drives...
Oil Importers Intervene; Turkey's Thin Reserves Raise Risk
A lot of oil importers have been intervening pretty heavily to keep their currencies from depreciating and adding to the oil price shock. Turkey is one of the more interesting cases, as its fx reserves remain limited 1/2 https://t.co/zsikWfgTxD
US Faces $10 Trillion Debt Refinance, Interest Pressure Rising
TEN TRILLION DOLLARS of existing US gov’t debt needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. This spells more trouble for the out-of-control federal budget in which net interest expense already accounts for 14% of federal spending and is growing...
Oracle Slides, Must Hold to Avoid February Low
Oracle is back to bleeding lower. Needs to hold in here soon to prevent that February low retest. $ORCL https://t.co/MeqTVksAx1
Outpatient Demand Soars, New Space Scarce and Pre‑leased
Houston is expecting a 16% jump in outpatient patient visits by 2029. New MOB construction under way? Less than 1% of existing supply. What little is being built is already spoken for: roughly 80% of that space is preleased before...
Trump and Xi Set to Meet in Beijing May 14‑15
President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will hold their highly anticipated summit in Beijing on May 14-15, following a delay that brought fresh uncertainty to relations between the world’s largest economies. https://t.co/mGv6Vxm4He
Tech ETFs Show Strong 3‑Month Gains vs Peers
here's a bunch of the key technology $XLK ETFs in @Optuma ratio grid style, allowing for an easy comparison of the % returns vs. the others... #SectorWatch left: 3-month % change right: 1-month % change... $PTF $PSCT $SMH $CHAT doing the 3-month relative...
Excitement Costs Returns; Prioritize Value and Patience
In stock market investing, chasing excitement often destroys returns. Charlie Munger reminds us that smart investors focus on what truly adds value, compounding, patience, and clarity, rather than unnecessary risks or short-term wins. Excitement is expensive in the stock market.
India's LPG Shortage Threatens Households Amid Hormuz Closure
India’s LPG crisis following closure of the Strait of Hormuz The war between the United States and Iran and closure of Strait of Hormuz has become a critical threat to the supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) India relies on for...
Sky‑High Rates Stall Existing Home Sales, New Sales Flat
Rates getting to 18% made is less affordable back then, different ways to measure this, but prices & rates exploded. A big variable on why existing home sales haven't finished a year under 4,000,000 the last 3 with with new...
Energy Stands Alone as 2026’s Sole Positive Sector
Energy is the ONLY sector positive in 2026. Not tech. Not financials. Not healthcare. Oil and war. That's the market's only winner. $XLE $XOM $SPY https://t.co/knCwIMzMam
Paper
Coming to terms with the fact that no matter how the Iran War and Hormuz crisis ends it’s going to be far harder going forward to scoff at claims that the paper market isn’t pricing in physical oil market realities. Catastrophic...
Five Essential Investor Lessons Amid Market Turmoil
With everything happening out there, it is easy to get swept up in all the emotion. In our latest @CarsonResearch blog, I take a step back and look at 5 lessons all investors need to know. https://t.co/B5u4UhzmLw
Oil Below 86 Needed to Sustain Equity Rally
Light Crude Futures $CL_F $USO 2 hour chart on left 30 minute on right Oil had been holding support btwn 94-92 until the 🟠"taco tweet" removed some of the perceived risk in oil It dropped down to the anchor from the beginning of the...
Macro Funds Suffer Double‑digit Losses in March
This month is proving painful for macro traders: Brevan Howard Master Fund: -6% (MTD through March 20), -0.5% YTD Brevan Howard Alpha Strategies: -3.7% (MTD through March 20), +0.6% YTD Taula: -9.6% (MTD through March 20) Caxton Macro: -15% (MTD...
USD/CAD Breakout Sparks 2% Surge to 1.38
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Surges 2% After Breakout – 1.38 Now the Battleground https://t.co/41a7o4JqSD $USDCAD Weekly Chart https://t.co/R9OllkfdxO
1970s Rates Spiked, yet Home Prices Outpaced COVID Era
From 1977 to 1979, mortgage rates rose from 8% to 13%, yet home prices still grew faster than during the sub-4% COVID years. Rates peaked around 18%, with spreads being quite large at nearly 6%. The spread market today is...
Canadian Banks Rise, US Banks Fall versus TSX Benchmark
4 financials... two Canadian, two American... all vs. the stronger denominator $TSX $EWC market... $CM + $TD - absolute & relative uptrends $BAC + $JPM - absolute & relative downtrends https://t.co/GewGS1r3RL
US‑Iran Conflict Bolsters Russia’s Grip on Global Food Markets
“An official from an Asian or African country who needs urea before the monsoon does not discuss the Ukrainian question. He calls the Kremlin, and the Kremlin picks up,” she said. On how the US war with Iran is strengthening Russia...
US Stocks Lag Behind Canadian Equivalents, Raising Opportunity Cost
it's clear... U.S. stocks whether equal-weighted $RSP or market-cap $SPX weighted are trending down vs. Canadian stocks $EWC making an oppoortunity cost for U.S. investors... https://t.co/MKHgNCqmYQ
SK Hynix Seeks US IPO, Targeting $14 Billion
SK Hynix files for US listing that source says could raise up to $14 billion https://t.co/QBH8wtKrug
Spending 42%+ on Housing Signals Financial Trouble
If you knowingly spend 42% on housing you’re worse with money. Should be an automatic pass.
Small‑Cap Earnings Rebound, Valuation Discount Sparks Appeal
Small-cap earnings growth is continuing to rebound, at the same time small-caps trade at a valuation discount to large-caps. Mike Wilson (@MorganStanley) explains why he likes small-cap stocks today. https://t.co/VmR4Wvtf8K https://t.co/DyiuOw4Nl4
Rising 10‑Year Yields Signal Regime Shift, Not Safety
10Y yields at 4.38% and RISING during risk-off. That's not the flight-to-safety playbook. That's a regime change. $TLT $SPY $GLD https://t.co/nCaYnxlGaO
Renewables Lower Electricity Prices; Fossil, Nuclear, Bioenergy Raise Them
Whereas more WindWaterSolar correlates with lower electricity prices worldwide, more fossil fuels, nuclear, and bioenergy each independently correlates with higher electricity prices.
Commodities Outpace S&P, Hinting Lower Stock High
did the rally of stocks $SPX vs. commodities since the '22 bottom roll over making a bigger picture lower high in favour of commodities? hmmm.... 👀 https://t.co/06LFvU59Fx
Insider Trade Exploits Trump’s Iran Pause Announcement
6:49am: sudden spike in oil futures trading. no news. no announcement. nothing public. 7:05am: trump announces a pause on iran strikes. markets move. someone knew. 16 minutes early. $580 million in contracts. the corruption is staggering.