Rising Short‑term Rates Threaten High‑debt Nations
Short-term rates (black) are rising as markets settle in for a long war. That pushes up long-term yields, a problem for any high-debt country out there. The last time we saw this in 2022, Italy and Spain needed ECB bailouts and the UK Gilt market blew up. https://t.co/AQWymB3xuq https://t.co/03hOra39Mt
Weekly Outlook
S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Forecast for the Week Ahead https://t.co/OcHNiybaDE #SPX500 #Nasdaq #Dow Weekly Charts https://t.co/CFWjG0EJik
Iran Risk Unpriced, Trump‑Netanyahu May Ignite Nuclear War
Iran risk is still not priced in. And neither is Trump-Netanyahu’s potentially diabolical reaction: US-Israel nuclear war
NVDA Eyes 161 Pivot, 146 Support if Broken
$NVDA - Headed to the yearly pivot at $161. If it breaks below 161 the next downside target would be the 100 week MA that is currently at 146. https://t.co/8WpdonkIVL
Market Crashes Are Temporary; Long‑term Returns Exceed 10%
Remember, the Stock Market Crashed: 34% in 2020 57% in 2008 49% in 2000 36% in 1987 50% in 1973 89% in 1929 And then it recovered to all time-highs each and every time. Since 1926, the stock market has returned an average of over 10% per year. Don't...
Rate Cuts Improbable This Year, 20% Chance in December
Last week I said the chance of a rate cut according to the polymarket was more than likely not happening Some thought I was wrong Needless to say no rate cut happened I need you all to pay attention… this ENTIRE YEAR (as...
Historic 400M‑Barrel Release Won’t Ease Prices
400 million barrels. Largest emergency stockpile release in history. $BRN still at $112. The market is telling you exactly what it's pricing: this won't be enough. Think. https://t.co/t5SmTDXuzM
50 Little-Known Tax Breaks to Keep More Money
I know that it feels like *everything* is taxable this time of year, but it’s not. From everyday perks to little-known exemptions, here are 50 ways that the U.S. tax code lets you keep more of your money. https://t.co/0IHTxG0pVv
Growth Alone Isn't Enough: Prioritize Low Dilution
SBC/Revenue vs NTM growth 👇 High growth ≠ shareholder-friendly $TEAM $FIG → strong growth, but SBC eats a large portion of value The best companies balance both $PLTR $APP $SHOP $ZETA → high growth with controlled dilution Low SBC = real operating leverage $MSFT $FICO $FTNT...
US Markets Hold Up as Global Stocks Falter Amid War
This WSJ chart comparing the decline in US and international stock markets reflects the underlying economic reality: While the global economy is reeling from the Middle East War, the US is relatively better positioned. This is especially true for energy where the...
U.S. Leaders Debate China Without Ever Visiting
Washington Is Flying Blind on China Americans talk incessantly about the need to compete with their country’s greatest rival and how to do it. Yet many U.S. policymakers have never been to China. Impacts quality of the debate clearly... https://t.co/ghNp4u7uqt
Meta's Weekly Decline Signals Major Bottom Near 494
$META - Closed the week below the 100 week MA. The August top was confirmed as being a major top. The next support is the November low at 581 but it will likely get broken in the near future. The...
PMIs Dominate Global Outlook as US Data Stalls
Light on US data next week but PMIs are key. These are the events to watch 👇 🇺🇸 US Jobless Claims & UMich Revisions 🇪🇺 EU - PMIs and GE IFO 🇬🇧 GBP -PMIs -Retail Sales -CPI 🇦🇺 AU -PMIs -CPI 🇯🇵 JP -CPI -BoJ Minutes
Free Guide to Master 6 Precise Fibonacci Patterns
Here’s a link below to a FREE Fibonacci Trading Strategy Guide (ebook): 📈📉 Learn the 6 Fibonacci Pattern Types that Create the Most Precise Price Levels, Targets, and Reversal Zones for traders. Click here: ⬇️ https://t.co/62UAf4L9jv Discover the 5 types that aren't...
Fundsmith Trims Big Tech, Adds Consumer and Niche Picks
Terry Smith's 2026 Fundsmith Annual Meeting: Sold: PepsiCo, Brown-Forman Halved: Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet Bought: EssilorLuxottica, Wolters Kluwer, Zoetis, Intuit, Magnum Ice Cream Full transcript: https://steadycompounding.com/transcript/fundsmith-terry-smith-annual-meeting-2026/
Let Winners Run: One Good Month Offsets Two Bad Months
Once you become profitable as a trader or investor by cutting losses short and letting winners run…. One month of great profits will cover two bad months of losses. That’s just how trading works.
Trump, Iran Threaten Gulf Energy Targets, Raising Global Crisis Risks
TEL AVIV/JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran threatened to escalate their war by attacking energy facilities in the Gulf, a potential widening of hostilities which could deepen a regional crisis and add to concerns in...
Impending LNG Shortage Highlights Energy Security Risks
The last LNG tankers from the Gulf arrive in the next 10 days. After that, many countries face a sharp drop in supply. Qatar's Ras Laffan — 20% of global LNG — could be offline for 3-5 years. Fossil fuel...
Iran Rakes $2.5B From Oil Amid War
Aside the relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil, for Tehran the big win is the fact that >20 days into the war, it’s still exporting oil via Hormuz. At ~1.5m b/d (and assuming $85 a barrel) that’s a ~$2.5...
Middle East War Fuels Energy Nightmare, Says Reuters
Three weeks into the Middle East war, this is where we are from an energy point of view - a nightmare scenario. A weekend read from @Reuters https://t.co/xnlY5DLrvT
Google Gains Ad Share as SMBs Favor AI Search
Macro: SMBs shift to AI search; Key: GOOGL's AI Overviews gain share vs META; Risk: budget reallocation dilutes social reach; Insight: Overweight GOOGL on ad-share gains. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China's Premier Acknowledges Trade Surplus Amid Export Surge
1/4 Bloomberg: "Chinese Premier Li Qiang has responded to growing calls from trading partners to address a rising trade surplus, with China’s exports continuing to surge in the first two months of the year." https://t.co/EMOs1RWaAX
Visional's BizReach Disrupts Japan Recruitment, 20% Growth
Visional (4194 JP) is disrupting Japan's recruitment market through its direct-scouting platform BizReach. Growing 20% annually, and according to my estimate, 12.5x 2027e P/E. https://t.co/Q0cX2GjlDd
Navigating Investor Strategies Amid Iran War Pullback
What are you doing as an investor during this market pullback from the Iran war?
Money Supply Growth Exceeds Target, Fuelling Pakistan Inflation
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's inflation is 7.0%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15.1%/yr. That’s above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5%/yr-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/x28UBeLyKl
Trump's Iran Ultimatum Threatens Supply Chain Stability
Trump gives Iran a 48 hour ultimatum and warning. Iran replies. Will things get worse? Supply of supply chains.
Modi’s Calm Highlights India’s Strategic Autonomy Advantage
While the US and Israel escalate, Modi plays it cool. INDIA'S STRATEGIC AUTONOMY = A WINNING HAND. https://t.co/T87Vj30GN9
Treasury Yields Spike, Curve Uninverts, Signaling Rate Hike
2-Year, 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike, Flip to Rate Hike. Yield Curve Uninverts. Government Sold $606 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week as the Borrowing Must Go On. Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front...
Closed Hormuz Lifts Oil $2‑3 Daily; Attacks Cause Spikes
I continue to expect crude prices to grind $2-3/bbl higher every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But if you start playing energy facility tit for tat that trend starts getting some step-change bumps real quick.
NYC Two
New York City builds smaller 2BR apartments Here's the distribution of 2BR sizes in NYC vs Seattle & Austin NYC average is 5% smaller than Seattle & 14% smaller than Seattle ... and more than 2/3 of NYC 2BRs are smaller than...
Turn Financial Mistakes Around—Find Guidance Here
If you financially f******cked up but you want to turn it around & get your money right — I hope you find my page.
Right‑size Your Trades: Bigger Isn’t Always Better
Bigger isn’t always better - how to calculate size in your trades #howtotrade #daytrading #momentum #tradingeducation #stockmarket
Middle East War Expands Threat to Global Supply Chains
This, from Bloomberg, illustrates how the Middle East War threatens a widening set of global supply chains. (On Monday, the FT is scheduled to post my column on a separate global risk that has yet to receive sufficient attention: the likely...
Oil‑Yen Link Signals Bigger Carry‑trade Risk
Everyone is watching oil in dollars. Almost nobody is watching oil in yen. That's where the real risk is. If Japan panics, the carry trade unwinds again — and this time it won't be a two-day event. I laid it all out on CNBC...
Iran's Qatar Attack Fuels US LNG Demand Surge
Iran’s attacks on Qatar’s LNG export plant could be one of the biggest tailwinds yet to the fast-growing US LNG sector 🇺🇸 🚢 🇹🇼 Taiwan said it plans to buy more LNG from the US from June 🇧🇩 Bangladesh is exploring...
Trump Demands Iran Open Hormuz Strait in 48 Hours
TRUMP GIVES IRAN 48 HOURS TO OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ=== this ain't no tariffs deadline
Existing Home Sales Near Record Lows, Sensitive to 7% Rates
We have to be mindful that existing home sales, unlike new home sales, are still working from all-time lows; the bar is very low for growth. Sales haven't collapsed since the end of 2022, no matter where rates went, but...
Heatwave’s Record Area Equals Size of Greenland
It's not just a swath of all-time March record highs... it's the size of greenland https://t.co/oliOqKe7PB
Closed Hormuz Could Push Brent Above $220 per Barrel
In a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, "that means $250-$300 price of oil (Brent)" argues @Rory_Johnston. Because a giant price shock is needed to destroy 15 million barrels per day of demand $220+ "almost guaranteed." https://t.co/fnf6ENgf0N https://t.co/yakBRYsHgc
China No Fixed Taiwan Timeline, No 2027 Invasion Plan
The US intelligence community now assesses that China has no fixed timeline for unification with Taiwan and that no invasion of Taiwan is planned for 2027. I'm no China expert but this dovetails with how I see Xi and the upside...
Predictable Demand Cuts Valuation Uncertainty, Boosts Returns
"Predictable demand reduces valuation uncertainty over long horizons." Predictability is one of the most underrated drivers of long-term returns.
Fed Inaction Fuels Gold Surge via Falling Real Rates
The Fed’s Inaction is a Green Light for Gold Here’s my take: The data confirms the Fed is way behind the curve. Inflation is out of control, and they can’t rein it in. Their failure to hike rates isn't bearish for...
Maximize Your ISA: 9 Hacks to Fit £29k
I’ve pulled together a video on 9 ISA hacks that you need to know before the end of the tax year. Including how to put £29,000 inside an ISA in one tax year… 👀 More below 👇 9 ISA Secrets...
Florida Inventory Drop Easier; Comps Soften Through Mid‑June
Also, be mindful that the inventory decline in Florida YoY was working from an easier bar to do so. Just like the national data, the YoY comps get easier up until mid-June. https://t.co/z4GnIpxb5B
China Onshore Stocks Crowned Top Asset Amid Conflict
With the onset of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, my good friend Chris Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies, believes China’s onshore stocks are the top assets. CHINA = WINNER.
Income Required for $289.9K Home with 3.5% FHA
How Much You Need to Make To Buy a $289,900.00 with a 3.5% down FHA loan
Only a Quarter of 5% Dips Become Corrections, Rarely Bears
Since WWII, there have been 105 5% pullbacks (not including the current one). About 25% of those turned into a correction and only 12.4% turned into a bear market. https://t.co/kvY5qL4H4P
DSTs May Be Riskier Than Traditional Installment Sales
The Problem With Using A Deferred Sales Trust To Defer Taxes On A Business Sale: Closer scrutiny of the DST strategy raises significant red flags that aren't included in the sales pitch. The characteristic that is needed to make DSTs work...
US‑Israeli War Triggers Asia‑wide Economic Shock
From fuel rationing in Sri Lanka to restaurant closures in India, flight cancellations in Thailand, and food and fertilizer shocks across Asia -- the ripple effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran are global. THE US-ISRAELI WAR'S COLLATERAL DAMAGE IS MASSIVE. https://t.co/jD1WHbQj6T
China Won’t Be the Biggest Loser if Hormuz Closes
Many commentators on Iran war have seemingly not thought any further ahead than “China is hurt most by Hormuz closing” Below is just one small example of why that view is so wrong 👇