Amazon Spikes 13.6%, Tops 20‑week Moving Average
$AMZN was up 13.64% this week. It was the biggest up week since the bear market low in January 2023. It closed the week above the 20 week MA, confirming that it made an intermediate term low in February. We'll find out if it leads to a new ATH, after earnings at the end of April. https://t.co/0CBf6R7c9j
IGV Breaks Support as PE Software Costs Rise, AI Falls
Ballsy call. IGV just broke support. Private equity has software problems. Cost of capital is rising in the sector while AI cost of capital is dropping. Maybe a short squeeze but doesn’t feel like real capitulation after a twenty year bull market.
Buy Critical Minerals Now Before Treaty-Driven Surge
Critical minerals including #silver will be the next major investment narrative. Now is the time to load up on metals and producers - before the announcement of the impending bilateral treaties, not after.
Bearish Engulfing Signals Potential Oil Top, Await Confirmation
$USOIL - The weekly bearish engulfing candle is further evidence to what I claimed since the March 9 top, that a major top was in. Technically, it hasn't been confirmed yet. That will happen only when the price of oil...
Active $JOJO Strategy Beats Passive Bond Risk
Passive bond investing means riding credit risk all the way down. No exit strategy. No rotation. Just duration and hope. $JOJO is the opposite of that. https://t.co/rbZotpZIp8
Silver Poised for Bounce to 88.84 Amid Bear Market
$Silver - The bounce out of the March low should continue into late April. The target could be as high as the 78.6% retracement of the March down leg at 88.84. Overall, it's just another bounce in a developing bear...
Gold Poised to Rise to 5028‑5280 by Late April
$Gold - The bounce out of the March low should continue into late April. The target is the 61.8%-78.6% retracement of the late January to late March downtrend at 5028-5280. https://t.co/YIo7oWw7FV
S&P 500’s Top Ten Still Dominate, Gap Shrinking
Concentration of S&P 500 market cap and earnings in the 10 largest index constituents... gap closing... https://t.co/smrJLaSTcS
Columbus Core Home Prices Surge Year‑over‑year
LEFT: Year-over-year home price change in the core of Columbus, OH in spring 2025 RIGHT: Year-over-year home price change in the core of Columbus, OH in spring 2026 via ResiClub Terminal https://t.co/Poj3BM9z1y
Financials Lag Despite Record Earnings and Top Margins
Financials are the worst-performing sector this year despite forward earnings at record highs and profit margins second-highest in the S&P 500. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/VkoCJ4Zo5n
Markets Favor Accelerating Growth Over Raw Rate
AppLovin grew 70% and the stock crashed. Shopify grew 30% and got no love. The market isn't rewarding growth anymore — it's rewarding acceleration. Growing 70% when you were growing 80% is a deceleration story. The bar has moved from...
China’s Bureaucracy Embraces Export Controls, Unseen Impacts Loom
China’s bureaucracy has discovered export controls and likes them, we haven’t seen all the effects yet
Startups Inflate ARR: Not Annual, Not Recurring, Not Revenue
Startups misreporting ARR is frustrating as an infrequent angel investor who relies on trust (no time to inspect) ~Every startup claiming 0→$[X]M ARR in [Y] months always forget to clarify that it's either a) not really Annual b) not really...
A Few Stocks Drive All Market Wealth—Diversify
Absolutely insane stat: Just 3.7% of stocks created 100% of U.S. stock market wealth over the last century. Miss a handful of winners … and you miss the market. That’s why you need to diversify. https://t.co/33wit1ajzk
China’s Power Surge Outpaces US, Boosting Geopolitical Clout
China added 1,514 GW of power capacity in 4 years. The US added just 161 GW. ENERGY CAPACITY = GEOPOLITICAL POWER. https://t.co/mIUmWJOAqL
XLK RSI Signals Bearish Range Capped Near 60
$XLK - RSI regime analysis points out a bearish range topping out around 60......we shall see.... https://t.co/gwSV7XMr1T
Stop Quoting Buffett; Carve Your Own Investment Swing
Too many defend their investing strategies with Buffett quotes. If you aim to outperform the markets you must find your own swing. https://t.co/3XHsZkAldW
February Home Price Cuts Hit Record High Since 2012
I ask you this Saturday. WHO has been ahead of this surge? If you don’t follow @m3_melody you’re behind trends “34.2% of Feb home sellers lowered their list price. That’s up from 31.5% a year earlier & represents the highest Feb...
Market Shifts Require Four Steps, Retests Can Reset
The market goes through a 4 step process to transition from a downtrend to an uptrend. The process isn't always linear. Retests (step 3) can fail, resetting the process to step 1. In rare cases the market skips step 3,...
2026 Tax Bill Lets Charitable Donations Yield Deductions
Most people donate to charity and get $0 of tax benefit. In 2026, that finally changes because of the new tax bill. Here’s how to take advantage:
US Destroyer Turns Back After Iran Threat via Pakistan
https://t.co/BrBdceeoER Interesting take by Bloomberg: A US destroyer was seen moving from Fujairah toward the waterway, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency said separately. Iran’s armed forces monitored it and conveyed this to the US via Pakistani mediators, the news agency said. The US vessel...
Tail Risk Peaked Early, Vanished Before SPX Bottom
Weekend blog post features a chart built on the unique data found only @Nations_Indexes. Did you notice that tail risk (red line) peaked early in the correction and had faded by the time SPX hit its low? That was interesting...
Butler National’s Insider‑Backed Surge: >40% EBITDA, Single‑Digit Valuation
What a stock. Butler National $BUKS continues its strong run, and insiders continue to buy. Love to see that combo. The last quarter (ending Jan. 2026) showed very strong, accelerating revenue growth and an EBITDA margin of >40%. Earnings up almost...
TLT Set to Outperform USO as Oil Rises
TLT Flushed vs. USO -- Dip to Buy, or Different? The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has dropped to a 10-year low vs. the United States Oil Fund LP (USO). Will the TLT/USO total return spread be higher or...
Gold Peaks Signal Potential 25% S&P Decline
When Parabolic Gold Peaks, Stocks Typically Drop The stock market tends to decline when gold peaks from high-velocity rallies. Will it be different this time? My graphic highlights the metal rolling over from its greatest premium to the 20-quarter moving average...
Market Holds Near Highs as Volatility Crumbles
Despite war, an oil shock, and nonstop tweets, the market is holding near highs and volatility just got crushed. With OPEX coming up next week, @spotgamma and I are back to break it all down. https://t.co/FIJLn2JfZr
2020‑22 Saw 40% of All USD Created, Ignored
Never, ever forget. Over 40% of all US dollars ever created were done so in 2020-2022. Yet, central bankers and Wall Street Research lectured against a hard asset portfolio and dramatically downplayed currency debasement. https://t.co/M7RQTCMivr
US-Israeli Conflict Severely Disrupts Gulf Fertil
Fertilizer flows from the Gulf continue to be disrupted. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR DAMAGE. https://t.co/jiYKxSmV7U
Steady Lithium Price Rise Preferred Despite Deficit
Mr @Sw197843: Yes, the deficit is here but don’t expect an explosion too soon. A slow & steady price rise is the best thing for #lithium. https://t.co/4cJkLGIYRb
SPX Gains 7% as Six-Strategy Ensemble Beats Benchmarks
Weekly Signals update: $SPX had strong performance the past two weeks with 7% gain. The ensemble of six strategies still outperforms by 300 bps YTD, with much lower drawdown. Link in reply below with free access to weekly recap. 👇...
China's Biotech Surge Threatens Western Drug Dominance
Big Pharma Is Turning to China for the Newest Drug Ideas—China’s biotechs are faster and have lower costs, and its drug research threatens to soon overtake the West’s @Loftus https://t.co/YszgDfNlwc https://t.co/YszgDfNlwc
SaaS Valuations Hit Historic Lows Despite Steady Growth
Negative sentiment in the SaaS software space is intensifying following the release of Anthropic’s new Mythos model, and average valuations across the sector are at historical lows - median EV/Sales for SaaS companies has declined to 3.30x ATL, while analyst-estimated...
Sanuwave Plunges 40% YTD: Opportunity or Red Flag?
Damn. Sanuwave $SNWV -40% ytd. Opportunity or 'stay the hell away from these crappy industries'? https://t.co/o35ORrbsWy
Washington's Iran War Calculus Shifts, Boosting Ceasefire Optimism
The risk-reward of pursuing war on Iran appears to have shifted for Washington and that helps fan hopes that despite the initial difficulties the ceasefire could stick. Some promising noises from Ukraine and Russia talks. Hungary election tomorrow. See https://t.co/C24lO3Uz3T...
Expect SPX Dip, Buying Puts at Current Levels
Saturday 3/28 SPX 6400. Expect a sizable dip on Monday and "Nothing but a buyer" Saturday 4/11. SPX 6820 buying puts last week at current levels . Just doing what we do. https://t.co/ZSOy0u6uI1
Dollar Reversal Signals Enduring Weak‑dollar Era
The magnitude of the reversal in the dollar may be the most important move we saw this week. Welcome to a weaker-dollar world. Upside moves are likely to be limited and short-lived, with a persistent pull back to the downside like a...
Russell 3000 Hits Highest 4‑Week High Count Since April 2025
The number of net new 4-week highs in the Russell3000 just reached its highest count since April 2025
Patience Pays: Stocks Spike After Years of Stagnation
Stock performance is rarely linear. You sometimes have to hold onto a position for a couple years before it goes up 300% in 6 months. It always looks easy in hindsight, but holding dead money is excruciating and few are...
Don't Let Daily Noise Obscure Long-Term Trend
Most investors are so easily distracted by short-term day to day price movements, that they completely forget about the direction of primary trends.
Buffett's $370B Cash: History Reveals Waiting Signal
Hey @grok Warren Buffett is sitting on $370 billion in cash. What does history say he's waiting for — and how close are we to that signal?
Ceasefire News Drops Oil Futures, Defying Shortage Expectations
There was lots of talk how acute "physical" shortage in the spot market would pull up futures prices of oil. That turned out to be totally wrong. News of a ceasefire pulled down futures, which in turn pulled down spot...
Dollar Poised for Further 5% Decline Amid Widening G10 Gap
The Dollar has a lot further to fall. Look at the gap that's opened up between the Dollar versus the G10 (blue) and the corresponding interest rate differential (black). We're talking about another 5% drop as negotiations continue and war...
Ceasefire Confirmed, US‑Iran Talks Push Dollar Lower
Earlier this week, I predicted we'd get a ceasefire. We did. The US and Iran are negotiating, a big step forward. Lots of details to iron out, but the war is ending, which is hugely risk positive. As a result,...
Market Makers Manage Gamma, Not Predict Direction
Today’s GammaGrid Insights: Most people think market makers are predicting direction. They’re not...They’re managing gamma. Thread 👇 #Nifty50 #OptionsTrading
Capstone Ends Strike, Boosts Output Amid Tight 2026 Copper Market
Capstone ended the Mantoverde strike and began ramping output as copper markets stay tight in 2026. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/capstone-mantoverde-strike-ends-as.html
Consider SIPs in Global Markets Despite FII Sell‑off
Anurag, so yr advise is that public wait for 600 billion of FII selling before investing. In the meantime where to invest. FDs ? Or u think with SIPs as low as 100 rupees per month they should start investing...
Shift Taxable Cash Into ISA Before 2027 Cuts
TLDR: if you have money outside of an ISA, that you are paying tax on, and you have excess ISA allowance leftover, it’s probably worth getting it inside of an ISA to avoid future tax. Especially important with the cash...
Energy‑GDP Link Means Hormuz Blockade Threatens Global Economy
Here is what data tells over 50 years of my tracking. Energy and world GDP track perfectly 1:1. Full shock incoming if Hormuz still stays choked. War not only risks global shortages, but exposes the fragility we’ve ignored. More information in the...
Macron Demands Concrete Action on Global Imbalances
Mark Sobel: "That relates to this year’s focus on global imbalances for the G7, G20 and IMF. French President Emmanuel Macron, current G7 chair, wants concrete commitments to reduce them. The US, as G20 president, is also paying attention, mainly...
IMF Admits Currency Intervention Fuels Depreciation, Balances External Accounts
Brad Setser is pleased to see the IMF conceding that intervention by a country in its currency and external accounts “can systematically generate real exchange rate depreciation and raise current account balances”. He is being quite polite. We have known for...