Rising Risks: Rate Hikes and Aggressive Cuts Both Escalate
"The risk of a hike might be rising but the risks of lots of cuts is rising too." - UBS
High‑beta Stocks Outshine Low‑volatility Amid Market Rally
As @JC_ParetsX recently mentioned, it is peculiar to see high beta outperforming low volatility during this recent surge lower. Not what you'd expect to see if things were as bad as they keep telling us. https://t.co/rGvxOprdO0
March 2022 Rally Shattered Downtrend, Defied Rate‑Hike Fears
The most recent genuinely vicious counter trend rally I recall was March 2022, SPX broke the YTD downtrend that had formed, reclaimed the 200 day moving average and then kept going for another week. Genuinely seemed like we had torn...
Politicians Hide True War Costs—Hundreds of Billions Missing
When politicians quote war costs, they're usually giving you the Pentagon's grocery bill, not the real economic damage. Oil shocks, lost jobs, delayed investment - the true cost isn't billions, it's hundreds of billions. Always ask: what are they not counting? https://t.co/Q56IHqdfvB
War Damages 39 Energy Sites Across Nine Nations
The New York Times on one of the major economic effects of the War: “At least 39 energy oil refineries, natural gas fields and other energy sites in nine countries have been damaged since the United States and Israel began...
Silver Bubble, Gold Bull, Then Massive Market Crash
Exactly as I warned in advance - TWICE now: Mega Silver Bubble Meets Mega Gold Bull Market - BEFORE a 7-sigma downdraft https://t.co/8hEosW0Op2 and just last week: Gold Is Just Another Risk Asset Now - BEFORE the latest sell-off https://t.co/BiIpfFJ2fA #MarketTiming
Earnings Rise, Prices Fall: Energy Costs Lag Impact
S&P 500 earnings growth: +13% year-to-date. S&P 500 price return: -3.24%. Strong fundamentals. Falling prices. What's actually happening? The economy doesn't have a fundamental problem. It has an energy problem. Oil at $110 is a forward tax on margins and consumption that...
10‑Year Yield Climbs to 4.38%, Highest Since July
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵 https://t.co/QnAMwCkKch
Read Filings: Unlock Hidden Profits in Plain Sight
Reading the filings really can make you a whole lot of money. It’s all in there.
Home Prices Poised to Dip Below 2022 Levels by Summer
Home prices sure look like they could be back under 2022 levels by late summer. *This is list prices, which is subject to a shift in the mix of homes available, but it a direct measure of how much homes cost,...
Brent’s $110 Price Already Reflects Hefty Risk Premium
There's so many people talking about oil going to $150 or $200, but those numbers are a stretch because Brent around $110 already embeds a big risk premium. Big thanks to @paulkrugman for having me on his podcast to talk...
Long‑Term Treasuries Outperform Stocks, Contrarian Bond Bet Wins
Long-term Treasuries are up 4.60% this year. The S&P 500 is down 3.24%. The most consensus short trade in finance for three years is quietly winning. Nobody writes bond bull pieces. Nobody is crediting their bond allocation. But TLT has outperformed SPY...
Tech and Financial P/E Ratios Dip Below April 2025 Levels
More from @DualityResearch... Tech & Financials P/E ratios now below their April 2025 closing levels https://t.co/dHpAkDVnQw
Market Faces Critical Crash Support, Selling Pressure Rises
Selling Into Critical Crash Level Support Poor breadth, rising yields, fragile support levels. Selling pressure builds as crash support zones come into focus. A technical review & why $SPX $6508 & $QQQ $578 matter. https://t.co/clgEWxEHum
S&P 500's Top Ten Dominate
GS: Concentration of S&P 500 market cap and earnings in the 10 largest index constituents... jaws are clamping down a bit https://t.co/UX5qVWlYho
NYSE A‑D Top Signals Mild 2026 S&P Dip
The NYSE and $SPX advance-decline lines topped in late February. There was no divergence at the top(an A-D line top before the S&P 500 top). Prior to every 4 year or 7 year cycle high in the past except one,...
Current Rates Far Below Worst‑case Mortgage Spread Scenarios
If we had the worst levels of mortgage spreads in 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.67% today, not 6.53% If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.29% today. If we had the worst levels of 2025,...
Preserve Capital: Align Portfolio for Conflict‑driven Downturns
Your portfolio at all times needs to be positioned to preserve capital. During times of conflict this is important. Too many investors realize too late that their positions are high risk and not aligned to survive the downturns that might...
Nikkei Rejects Gas Subsidies, Calls for Conservation
Japan’s top business newspaper comes out to oppose additional subsidies on gasoline prices (which hit a record this month) 🇯🇵 ⛽️ The policy will support consumption in a period of tight supply Instead, the Nikkei calls for energy conservation (and for Tokyo...
Harvard Cancer Researcher Delivers 2,000% Options Gains
Today I'm premiering my interview with Tito Adhikary @GnT_Trades A Harvard Cancer Researcher turned Options Trader Tito returned over 2,000% in the 2025 USIC trading growth stocks with options. Here's a quick preview 👇 https://t.co/2X9kxXvqkq
Sanctions Relief Risks Oil Drop, Treasury Turns Trader
Bessent is trying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through sanctions relief. 140M barrels of Iranian oil. A temporary lift. Geopolitical chess. If it works, oil falls. If it fails, $110 looks cheap. The Treasury Sec is now an oil trader. Welcome to...
MSFT Approaches 200‑Week MA, Eyes $367 Support
$MSFT is close to hitting its 200 week MA at $378. The target for the next major low is probably a bit lower: the 1st yearly support pivot at $367. https://t.co/AqEanatkFt
Export Ban Would Cripple US Production, Swell Inventories
Oil expert Stephen Schork on the potential US oil export ban: "An export ban would be catastrophic for US oil production bc. all it would do is pent up more supply here in the US of oil we don't necessarily use......
Top 10 Stocks Lose $850B in Two Weeks
The top 10 largest stocks in the world are now worth a combined $24.3 Trillion down from $25.15T 2 weeks ago
Market Regime Shift: Oil $112, Gold Crash, S&P Below 200‑Day
I just dropped my US Equity Market Weekly Intelligence Report on Substack - Oil at $112. - Gold’s historic crash. - S&P just broke below the 200-day MA. This week just triggered a full market regime shift heading into 2026. Read the full breakdown on...
Gold's Fastest Rally Since 1980 Signals Bull Market
$5,000 Gold Stretched Akin to 1980, 2011 Highs - Highlighting the extreme velocity of gold's rally, the store of value at the end of February reached the greatest premium to its 60-month moving average since 1980 and lowest ever vs. the...
Close Below 200MA Signals Bearish Trend – Cut Equity
Finance 101: When the Market Closes Below the 200MA – A Classic Bearish Signal When the closing price drops below the 200-day Moving Average (200MA), it’s one of the most respected long-term bearish signals in technical analysis. The 200MA smooths out...
Trim Bad Trades Like Fasting: Discipline Over Willpower
I lost 100 pounds through fasting. Not willpower. Discipline. Markets teach the same lesson. The positions that hurt you most are the ones you won't let go of. Fasting is cutting what you don't need. Trading is no different. Most investors are obese...
Oil’s $175 Hype Ignored by Topping Chart Signals
I know you all are excited in a perverse way for oil to hit $175 per barrel, but oil stock charts are overwhelmingly giving off topping and rolling over signals.
Small‑cap Star Delivers 1,670% 10‑year Return
It's time to revisit the case of a small cap star that has returned +1670% over the last 10 years and operating stronger than ever... post coming on premium feed
WTI Crude Plummets $27 in Two Days
Yes, but there is more to it than just that..... such as the $27 spread in CLK26/CLK28 May 26 WTI Crude Oil Futures settled $98.23 May 28 WTI Crude Oil Futures settled $71.23
Markets Expect Fed Rate Hike Over Cut This Year
1/ Markets now think the Fed is more likely to raise rates than cut them this year. A rate hike is not my baseline scenario, but I see the risks rising, for the following reasons. (Link to column in next...
US 10‑Yr Yields Rise, 20‑Yr Near 5% Mark
UST 10 Yr Notes went home 4.386 on Friday, yield about 10.3bp's higher. 20 Yr Bonds just 2bp's away from that 5% Handle.
Saving Naira Isn't Investing: Inflation Eats Your Money
The most dangerous financial habit in Nigeria is saving money in a Naira account and calling it an investment. You are not growing your money. You are watching inflation eat it slowly while you feel responsible for being disciplined. There is a very...
QQQ Trades 7 Points Above AVWAP Target
$QQQ A/H 7 points right off the potential main target Friday, that AVWAP from 2025 lows been highlighting (pink line) https://t.co/8ll74fb0fg
S&P 500 and June E‑Mini Breach Key Support, Risk Downside
Both S&P500 and S&P June E-Mini Futures looked to have violated levels that could lead to additional downside. https://t.co/lo2FDEAZl2
Brent Prices Signal Ongoing Iran Conflict, WTI Lags
Oil expert Stephen Schork on Brent & WTI prices & the war in Iran: "[The WTI contract] is the hope market. The Brent market is the real market that is pricing the real events going on, and that blowup [Brent...
Rising Oil Prices May Trigger an Economic Recession
Will higher oil cause a recession? @sonusvarghese and I discussed this in our latest Glass Half Full. https://t.co/Jc7IFlbB5X
India’s Tanker Move May Pave Way for Iran’s Dominance
FEDWATCH: “.. If [India’s tanker] passage is successful, other countries may follow the Indian example. .. “.. the only way crude price volatility cools off is if there is a decisive winner, which is increasingly looking to be Iran.” [Emons]...
Ethanol Blending Fuels Jobs, Revenue, Not Just Cost
It’s not really that simple… Ethanol prices depending on the cost of production… At 5% blending, the ethanol component is 5.5 cents…. Should we stop blending? Not really… that ethanol value chain creates jobs for thousands of people… it creates opportunities...
China Polysilicon Prices Plunge over 13% Year‑to‑date.
China polysilicon prices fall over 13% year-to-date as below-cost selling persists #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/09RxxnPHxz
Trimmed Long Book to 21; Gold Remains Sole Metal
ETF Pro and Macro Pro subcribers can see I've reduced my Long Book to 21 positions down from 30 (a month ago). Gold is my only metal - I used to have 9 https://t.co/7EABDXnFqc
Portfolio Success Comes From Process, Not One Anchor
Gold was a loser this week. I own it. But our SELL calls on $QQQ, $SPY, #Bag7 $XLF $IWM? Those were winners. The whole portfolio is the process — not the one position your brain decided to anchor on
Farmers Fear Fertilizer Shortages Over Prices
This was a good chat on @CNBC Friday about fertilizer supply. The issue for farmers isn’t about high prices for this year’s planting season — they’ve already ordered. The issue is whether they’ll get delivery on their order at all. @moneymoverscnbc https://t.co/uaoLjqU0Vc https://t.co/pBZlY83EA0
March Market Slump: Stocks, Gold, Silver Dive, Bitcoin Flat
In March👇 Nifty Is down Gold is down Silver is down Bitcoin is sideways Paisa ja kha rha hai🤔
Single? Buy a Duplex, Let Rent Cover Your Mortgage
Unpopular opinion: You don’t have to be married to buy a house. You can buy one all by yourself… even if you're a single girl. And instead of just buying a regular house, think about buying something that makes you...
New Data Backs 5% Canary Theory Despite Market Anomalies
More data that supports the idea behind my 5% Canary paper. Markets don’t always follow historical precedence, but still important to know.
Massive Drops Expose Trapped Long Positions at Market Highs
$GLD down 19%, $GDX down 31%, $SLV down 44%, $SIL down 33%, $BTC down 44% off highs. Lots of trapped longs up there. Just remember those who were telling you to buy up there.
S&P 500 Forward P/E Falls to 20.3
"The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.3. (down 2.8pts from the high... the market multiple hits correction territory)" -Mike Zaccardi
Top Strategies Ensure Consistent Retirement Income
The Best Retirement Income Strategies For Consistent Spending: An analysis of a range of retirement income strategies identifies those that lead to the most consistent annual income throughout an individual's retirement, and more on #retirementplanning this week: https://t.co/ao7EeGgvct #WeekendReading (Amy...