Norway's Krone Leads Global Currencies with 6% Gain
Best performing currency in the world in the last 3 months = Norway's Krone +6.0% https://t.co/QTiHlRp0kL
Airlines' Abandoned Fuel Hedges Signal Rising Ticket Prices
Oh no! US airlines are no longer hedged against oil price shocks. Now we will all be paying in higher fares. Just like PJM states who didn't hedge against the recent increase. And California in 2000-2001. Hindsight is 20-20 but...
Xi Pushes RMB as Global Reserve Amid U.S. Isolation
The U.S. is accumulating enemies faster than you can shake a stick. Chinese President Xi SEES AN OPENING. Xi has made a new push the renminbi to be a global reserve currency. https://t.co/qMpgMEp3Fo
New Home Sales Yet to Slip Below 2022 Lows
If new homes can fall below the 2022 lows in sales for at least 5-7 months, that would do it, but their purchase application data hasn't shown that yet. https://t.co/Jv2eyLip1u
Markets Reprice Inflation Shock, Not Recession Fears
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
Combine VOO and QQQM for Balanced Wealth Growth
If you could only pick two ETFs to build wealth… these are hard to ignore. VOO gives you the entire S&P 500 — 500+ companies, low fees, and steady long-term growth. QQQM focuses on the Nasdaq-100 — more tech, more growth potential,...
Predictor Misses ETH, Turns to ES_F 7700
Person who said $ETH 9K right before it dropped 50% now says $ES_F 7700 https://t.co/5spjzy9CBi
Escalation Risks Iran Mining Hormuz, Deepening Humanitarian Crisis
At what point does this escalation by Trump-Netanyahu actually prompt Iran to mine the Straight of Hormuz... with these ships on it?! Then this humanitarian crisis goes from lock-down to existential pretty quickly.
Dollar-Oil Surge Cripples Emerging Markets, Unmodeled Squeeze
DXY up 3% in a month on safe-haven demand. Oil up 50%. Dollar up AND oil up simultaneously. Emerging markets are getting crushed from both sides. This is the squeeze nobody is modeling. https://t.co/xogAtPGq0m
Waiving Restrictions Lets Putin Sell Oil at 2022‑level Prices
By what? Giving waver to Putin to sell his oil freely at prices we have not see since 2022? 😉
War Triggers Soaring Commodity Prices, Gas up 85%
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... European Natural Gas: +85% Heating Oil: +80% Brent Crude Oil: +54% Urea: +48% WTI Crude Oil: +46% Gasoline: +44% Diesel: +42% Sulfur: +25% Coal: +24% Fertilizer: +23% Palm Oil: +13% US Natural Gas: +8% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7%
Long‑term UST Holders Lost ~80% Purchasing Power
Joke's on you - anyone that has owned LT USTs for the past 10 years has already had their purchasing power destroyed (ZB priced in gold down ~80% since global CB's stopped buying USTs on net in 3q14 & ramped...
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.7%/yr in February, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/Q0L3lNddlP
JHEQX Option Shift Negligible; only Market Makers Notice
This may or may not be true. But unless you care about which exchange/clearing/venue has volumes. Shifting $JHEQX from SPX cash options to some other form of ES options or BTIC+ settled ES options has literally no impact on...
Europe Faces Jet Fuel Shortage Amid Kuwait Strikes
Forget TSA lines, the real problem with air travel in the coming weeks is fuel. Some cargoes are already diverting toward the U.S. on a Jones Act waiver, so domestic travel might hold. Europe? Different story. About 1.77M barrels/day of jet fuel...
Renewables Lower Electricity Prices, Not Increase Them
Everything this guy says is fake or misleading. The chart is one of taxes, not RE cost https://t.co/LxtCmfzTkR RE correlates with lower, not higher, electricity prices. Of the 14 states meeting 50-124% of demand with WWS, 12 are 2-5...
Active Traders Need Separate Gold Technical Rules
If u are super active you need technicals and rules for Gold $gld as well. Asset allocations are a different set of rules. https://t.co/8xijX9YbgS
Hormuz Closure Cuts 30% Fertilizer Supply, Spurs Food Prices
OUT NOW - @JLinvilleFert on how Strait of Hormuz's closure has blocked >30% of world's fertilizer exports & degraded farming economics. Upward fert & food price risk. It's bad. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc YouTube📽️ https://t.co/qx5Od1DJd1 https://t.co/uA1oP879mc
Weekend Read: Paul Krugman on the Hormuz Shock
As a first for me, I'm recommending @paulkrugman as a weekend read/listen. @robin_j_brooks makes it possible with a discussion on the Hormuz shock. https://t.co/aQ64hxAHxb
Sachs Predicts US Loses Geopolitical Edge to China
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on current geopolitics: "In many ways, the US can not compete with China [in both manufacturing and diplomacy]... And I think we all feel it's not a temporary phenomenon but really the end of the...
Oil Announcements: Hype Unveiled, Real Market Moves
The Oil Shell Game: Peeling Away the Bluster of the Latest Oil Announcements. Trade. https://t.co/FyQ7lGbyR5
Imminent Treasury Supply Surge Threatens Auction Failure
This is maybe not this week or even next month, but this is a failed auction waiting to happen. #TreasurySupply
Iran's Strike on Qatar Threatens Gulf Energy Supply
Iran struck Qatar's gas infrastructure. Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter. This isn't just oil at risk. It's the entire Gulf energy supply chain. $XLE is at all-time highs for a reason. https://t.co/7TjuVfAelG
Capturing Kharg Island Won’t Halt Iran’s Oil Flow
KHARG ISLAND — a thread: Trump has talked about taking Iran's Kharg Island for 40 years. The problem? Capturing it won't shut down Iran’s entire oil export system. And thus it won't lead to Hormuz re-opening fast enough. 🧵1/10 @Opinion FREE-TO-READ: https://t.co/ZOYtq3KESE https://t.co/xtLBqPShB6
Energy Gains From Multiples; Other Sectors Now Cheaper
WEI LI @BlackRock: Energy's surge has come almost all from multiple expansion... Tech, Discretionary, Financials are now wayy cheaper than they were on Dec 31st https://t.co/N3mpO9RuZr
Trust, Leadership, Speed: Buffett’s Blueprint for Market Success
Warren Buffett breaks down the real secret behind success in the stock market: trust, leadership, and fast decision-making. Learn how value investing and smart capital allocation can accelerate wealth building and give you an edge in today’s investing world.
NVIDIA Dwarfs Intel and AMD by Eightfold
Chart Shows NVIDIA 8x Bigger Than Intel, AMD Before Laptop Battle Even Starts - Data Explained https://t.co/y0CnqRyrUM
Asia Reunites Historically; U.S. Unprepared for New Reality
In 2011, fifteen years ago, I wrote an essay for @TWQgw on the reemergence of an interconnected "historical Asia" instead of the fragmented "Cold War Asia" anomaly to which Americans had grown accustomed. A fantastic essay in Swarajya on the...
JPMorgan: Undervalued Stock, Ideal Tech Portfolio Diversifier
Is JPM a BUY Right Now? My view: I believe JPMorgan Chase is undervalued at current levels. Even better, it’s a high-conviction diversifier for any portfolio that’s already heavily exposed to semiconductors and technology. Check out my latest thesis on Substack below
US Gas Prices Shifted to Brent‑Only Influence After 2010
"U.S. retail gasoline prices respond to Brent and WTI before January 2010 and then only to Brent afterwards." (Note: this study is from 2019)
Oil Price Panic Scenarios Need Impossible Export Collapse
Of course you can paint all kinds of horror scenarios for oil prices. But they require two things: (i) a collapse in oil export volumes out of the Gulf from current levels near 10 mmb/d; (ii) a price elasticity of...
Credit Becomes Unexpected Lifeline for Many Today
Credit wasn’t meant to be your lifeline, but this is the reality for a lot of us right now....
Tesla Breaks Below Yearly Pivot, Targets 325 Support
$TSLA - Closed the week below the yearly pivot at 387. The December top was confirmed as being a major top. The next downside target is the 100 week MA that is currently at 325. https://t.co/i98YDNydf3
Oil Price Surge Adds 2.8% to CPI Inflation
Funny math. If Dec oil meets futures. The YoY inflation of oil will be roughly 40%. Pick your inflation basket weighting and any feed through to core . Headline CPI direct is roughly 7%. Others...
Key Factors for Successful Breakout Trades Explained
The SMB podcast dives deep into all the factors to consider when considering *breakout trades*. https://t.co/j8CijnGt31
Silver's Pump‑dump Threatens Broader Market Stability
The Devil's Metal: Silver and Risks of Contagion - Silver's 1Q pump-then-dump may prove contagious. The so-called "devil's metal" has lived up to its reputation, reversing a 63% year-to-date gain on Jan. 28 to a 5% decline on March 20....
China Faces Gas Shortfall as Gulf LNG Runs Out
"World faces gas supply cliff edge as Gulf’s final LNG shipments approach ports" https://t.co/OjcnxXcs8a "China gets 30 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf but has some domestic gas production and can switch to coal-fired power generation if needed." https://t.co/ikbgxbUPhV
Master AVWAP and Multi‑Timeframe Trading for $10
X Subscriber Monthly Educational Seminar Recording just uploaded. ➡️AVWAP concepts and methods ➡️Multi timeframe entry & stop mgt techniques ➡️Risk sizing & position management ➡️Screening routine and filters & More join here and get your Qs answered - $10/month https://t.co/IdUv4sfoJX
IMF Urges China to Boost Consumption, Cut Subsidies
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz: "China can do more to increase consumption and domestic demand—especially for services—by boosting household incomes and reducing incentives for precautionary savings. That means shifting resources away from industrial subsidies and infrastructure." https://t.co/2Rvhxa5jsN
Tech Forward P/E Near Long‑Term Median Since 1995
S&P 500 Expanded Tech Forward P/E Ratio.. right near its long-term median since 1995 @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/gRuj8dp3hU
Satellite Shows Iran Exporting Oil with US Backing
Iran’s Kharg Island as seen **today** by the @CopernicusEU Sentinel-2 satellite. Iran is loading multiple tankers, exporting oil and making $$$ — now, with the help of the White House. The idea that Trump admin is using Iranian oil barrels...
Chinese PV Wafer Prices Drop Amid Weak Demand
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Wafer prices fall on weak demand #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/Lzcqrequzf
Gold and Silver ETFs Face Historic Sell‑Off
Gold and silver ETFs just experienced one of the sharpest sell-offs in history: here is the breakdown 👇
Spotting Double Convexity in Undervalued Delaware Market
There’s having convexity. And then there’s having convexity on top of convexity. The edge is seeing it before the path is obvious. In the rearview mirror, returns always look smaller. I may have discovered a corner of the market that is oddly...
Fannie, Freddie Flood Market with Big MBS Bids
A bit of weekend announcement aimed at stabilising soaring mortgage rates FANNIE, FREDDIE PLACE LARGE BIDS FOR MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES
Week of High-Stakes Events Deepens Economic Fragility
Here are the links to the weekly look at the global economy and markets—a discussion of a week characterized by both high-stakes developments and an increasingly fragile economic and financial outlook. https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7441107748030693376/ https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-7d1?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true #economy #markets #middleeastwar
Tax‑Smart Investing Can Make You a Millionaire in 15 Years
15 Year Millionaire (how to cut your taxes by 48%) 1. Assume you make $100k/ yr 2. Invest $4,400 in an HSA 3. Invest $7,500 in a Roth IRA 4. Invest $24,500 in a 401k 5. Take the $16,100 single filer deduction 6. Enjoy your new 22%...
Gold and Silver Can't Be Printed Like Fiat Money
"Gold and silver... [are] distinct from modern forms of money or currency. Currencies such as the US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Brazilian Real or the Euro can be created at the will of central banks. Precious metals cannot.” –Invest Local (2014)...
US‑backed Tankers Keep Loading at Kharg Despite Tensions
Threats are flying between the US and Iran, but what matters for oil prices isn't words but deeds. Those deeds are that big oil tankers with capacity of 2 million barrels keep docking at Kharg Island to fill up. This...
Spain's Power Prices Rarely Linked to Gas, Unlike UK/Italy
Gas only sets Spain's electricity price 15% of the time. When gas costs spike it barely registers on the electricity bill. In countries like Italy and the UK gas sets the price 90% of the time. The difference is enormous. I...