Nifty Set to Slip Below 21800, IPOs at Risk
Are You Ready For Another Big Dent In The Portfolio? 🚨 Gift nifty showing - Big Gap Down 🔻 Eventually portfolio will also falls. ✅ Now market structure (chart) will get worse below 21800 levels (nifty) ⚠️ Very negative for IPO market also. 😥 3-4 new ipo opening this week. ⭐ Central Mine Planning and Design - IPO ( Coal India ) will close tomorrow 💡 APPLY ✅ or AVOID ❌ : Final decision - Tomorrow 🚀 @champ_trader
Exhausted Asia Push; Now Advancing Tick‑by‑tick
So far we've basically spend all of Asia fliing the gap and grinding towrads ORB high. At this point I guess we are going ot go tick for tick with every blast.
Energy Surge Deepens Fed Transition Crisis for Warsh
The run-up in energy prices is making a very awkward Fed transition even more fraught. This was already complicated. Kevin Warsh's confirmation is stalled by the DOJ probe and the Tillis blockade. Plus, unlike every incoming Fed chair since Volcker, Warsh...
Gold's Drop Signals Tight Policy, Not Liquidations
Seeing a narrative going around that gold is selling off because everyone is getting liquidated. Please. If that were the case, people would be selling stocks first. Gold is leading the downside. To me, this still looks like a market pricing in an extremely...
Kharg Island Seizure Won’t Halt Iran’s Oil Exports
[MUST READ] Iran’s Kharg Island - U.S. seizure would not necessarily end exports or re-open the Strait: https://t.co/yRYH1g1UAM
Housing Market Set to Grow If Iran Tensions Spare Rates
Housing market is poised for growth this year if Iran conflict doesn't raise rates, says HousingWire Mohtashami https://t.co/ZBWUvaA7UQ
Further Dips May Trigger Rally Above Feb Low
GC and SI have been on extended runs to the downside, and thus can still do some work down here. But, any further down likely then have a rally back up above this Feb swing low. https://t.co/r7CeCy4jUU
More Rental Units Drag Single-Family Rent Growth to Decade Low
This additional rental supply is putting downward pressure on single-family rents. One reason why SFR rent growth is at 10-year low. https://t.co/wh9Qyhz6TK
Elliott's Multibillion Synopsys Bet Amid AI Chip Surge
Macro: AI-driven chip complexity raises EDA demand. Key: Elliott took multibillion stake in Synopsys; Nvidia tie, new CEO; shares −12%. Risk: activist margin push. Trade: accumulate SNPS on dips. —Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Algorithm Signals 94% Chance of Market Bottom
The stock market is very oversold $NDX $SPX SPX-BIGBOT algorithm we monitor (see bottom panel on chart) is flashing 94.4% probability of a large market bottom. On watch for a final flush (capitulation) followed by an intra-day reversal. https://t.co/BrhHwoD6Ls
Indian Tanker Pays in Yuan, Signaling Petro‑Yuan Market Rise
And Indian tanker has reportedly paid in Chinese yuan. Welcome to the #petroYuan market (thanks donald)
DLO's Post-IPO Multiples Keep Compressing To
New to the name... why have multiples continued to compress since IPO? 13x next years earnings $DLO
High‑Yield Spreads Hit 9‑Month High, Massive Fund
"High-yield spreads rose to a 9-month high this week, and we’ve seen the largest weekly withdrawals from high-yield mutual funds since Liberation Day" --JPM
Asian Markets Plunge 3-4% on Shaky Monday
Had a short window to record this as we go live this Monday. Just to show: markets are in really bad shape this Monday. Japan and Korea are down 3-4% https://t.co/qr5MVM9jzS
Public Split on Whether Mortgage Rates Are Rising
If you look at this chart of mortgage rates, do you say rates are: Up, Flat, or Down? (poll follows below) https://t.co/f44iFahBSk
Preserve Wealth Now, Embrace Sideways Consolidation Amid Uncertainty
If you’ve had a good run over the past 3 years there’s nothing wrong with being in wealth preservation mode now. Nothing goes up in a straight line, least of all your portfolio. Be okay with some sideways consolidation, no...
Low‑priced Financials: Opportunity or Hidden Trouble?
Sometimes things are cheap for a reason, but financials are one group that if you were waiting to buy it when it got cheaper, this is quite interesting.
Middle East LNG Shipments to Cease in 10 Days
Finacial Times. LNG from the Middle East expected to stop within 10 days. More supply and maritime problems ahead.
Lock in $5 per Gasoline Can via Spot Arbitrage
You can hold that garbage can full of gasoline and wait for higher prices, but risk Trump TACOing and prices dumping. Or you can simply sell the garbage can of gasoline into spot and buy the same garbage can back for...
Activist vs Value Growth: Unlocking Japan’s Hidden Stock Potential
There are many approaches to investing in Japan. Senjin Capital uses shareholder activism to unlock the deep value trapped inside many small Japanese companies. Isabella Foley and @ForagerFunds take a different, but complementary approach, preferring stocks that are growing well...
Struggling Sellers Turn to Renting, Listings Surge
Homeowners who are having trouble selling their homes are becoming landlords at a near record pace About 2.2% of rental listings on Zillow in November had previously been listed for sale—highest level since late 2022 when mortgage rates surged...
Thailand Revives Mothballed Coal Plants, Curbing LNG Prices
More evidence of Asian counties performing a LNG-to-coal fuel switch: Thailand has reactivated two coal-fired units that had been mothballed. The switch is important to put a lid on global LNG (and European gas) prices. https://t.co/qqyd5NrZQ8
Goldman Lifts 2026 Oil Forecasts Amid Hormuz Slowdown
GOLDMAN: “We upgrade our price forecast for two reasons. First, we now assume that Hormuz flows remain at only 5% of normal levels for a longer 6-week period before a gradual 1-month recovery. Second, a recognition of the risks from...
Funds Hold Strongest Corn Bullish Stance Since 2025
🌽Money managers as of March 17 held their most bullish position in CBOT corn fut & opt since late Feb. 2025, as more shorts were forced out of the market. That marked funds' 9th consecutive week as net corn buyers, their...
Elliott Holds Multibillion-Dollar Stake in Synopsys
SCOOP: Activist Elliott has a multibillion-dollar investment in Synopsys, the big chip-design software maker. $SNPS https://t.co/QyAv48vw6E
USTs Open Rough; Front-End Pressure
Nasty open for USTs with front-end under the most pressure. 2y futs off 3.5 ticks
Trade Only When Multiple Confluences Align
Most traders enter trades without enough trading confluence. One signal is not a strategy. High probability setups usually align higher time frame momentum, supply and demand zones, and clear market structure. If price is not at a key supply or demand level, and...
Budget, Plan, Invest: Reach the Top 1% Financially
💪 How Do You Compare Financially? 🤑 1 in 4 millennials still gets financial help from there parents and most people don’t pay off their student loans until they’re in their 40s. If you own a home before 38 or...
Polymarket Predicts 28% Chance Hormuz Reopens by April
Polymarket, a large prediction market, shows only a 28% chance that the Strait of Hormuz will open for normal traffic by the end of April. TRUMP & NETANYAHU’S WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COSTS. https://t.co/slk6gIZTUJ
Key S&P Level Threatens 2008‑Style Crash
It's good to have eyes wide open...just in case Crash Risk: 2008-Type Waterfall Level Is Here Rising oil, yields & dollar are increasing market stress. VIX has a persistent bid. A key $SPX level could trigger either a bounce OR a sharp "2008-style"...
Oil Shock Could Trigger Bond Market Turmoil, Warns FT
The Financial Times’ Katie Martin: “It is hard, in that environment, to pick the market moves that really matter. This week’s wild ride in UK government bonds is, I think, one of them. It is an early warning sign of...
Norway's Krone Leads Global Currencies with 6% Gain
Best performing currency in the world in the last 3 months = Norway's Krone +6.0% https://t.co/QTiHlRp0kL
Airlines' Abandoned Fuel Hedges Signal Rising Ticket Prices
Oh no! US airlines are no longer hedged against oil price shocks. Now we will all be paying in higher fares. Just like PJM states who didn't hedge against the recent increase. And California in 2000-2001. Hindsight is 20-20 but...
Xi Pushes RMB as Global Reserve Amid U.S. Isolation
The U.S. is accumulating enemies faster than you can shake a stick. Chinese President Xi SEES AN OPENING. Xi has made a new push the renminbi to be a global reserve currency. https://t.co/qMpgMEp3Fo
New Home Sales Yet to Slip Below 2022 Lows
If new homes can fall below the 2022 lows in sales for at least 5-7 months, that would do it, but their purchase application data hasn't shown that yet. https://t.co/Jv2eyLip1u
Markets Reprice Inflation Shock, Not Recession Fears
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
Combine VOO and QQQM for Balanced Wealth Growth
If you could only pick two ETFs to build wealth… these are hard to ignore. VOO gives you the entire S&P 500 — 500+ companies, low fees, and steady long-term growth. QQQM focuses on the Nasdaq-100 — more tech, more growth potential,...
Predictor Misses ETH, Turns to ES_F 7700
Person who said $ETH 9K right before it dropped 50% now says $ES_F 7700 https://t.co/5spjzy9CBi
Escalation Risks Iran Mining Hormuz, Deepening Humanitarian Crisis
At what point does this escalation by Trump-Netanyahu actually prompt Iran to mine the Straight of Hormuz... with these ships on it?! Then this humanitarian crisis goes from lock-down to existential pretty quickly.
Dollar-Oil Surge Cripples Emerging Markets, Unmodeled Squeeze
DXY up 3% in a month on safe-haven demand. Oil up 50%. Dollar up AND oil up simultaneously. Emerging markets are getting crushed from both sides. This is the squeeze nobody is modeling. https://t.co/xogAtPGq0m
Waiving Restrictions Lets Putin Sell Oil at 2022‑level Prices
By what? Giving waver to Putin to sell his oil freely at prices we have not see since 2022? 😉
War Triggers Soaring Commodity Prices, Gas up 85%
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... European Natural Gas: +85% Heating Oil: +80% Brent Crude Oil: +54% Urea: +48% WTI Crude Oil: +46% Gasoline: +44% Diesel: +42% Sulfur: +25% Coal: +24% Fertilizer: +23% Palm Oil: +13% US Natural Gas: +8% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7%
Long‑term UST Holders Lost ~80% Purchasing Power
Joke's on you - anyone that has owned LT USTs for the past 10 years has already had their purchasing power destroyed (ZB priced in gold down ~80% since global CB's stopped buying USTs on net in 3q14 & ramped...
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.7%/yr in February, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/Q0L3lNddlP
JHEQX Option Shift Negligible; only Market Makers Notice
This may or may not be true. But unless you care about which exchange/clearing/venue has volumes. Shifting $JHEQX from SPX cash options to some other form of ES options or BTIC+ settled ES options has literally no impact on...
Europe Faces Jet Fuel Shortage Amid Kuwait Strikes
Forget TSA lines, the real problem with air travel in the coming weeks is fuel. Some cargoes are already diverting toward the U.S. on a Jones Act waiver, so domestic travel might hold. Europe? Different story. About 1.77M barrels/day of jet fuel...
Renewables Lower Electricity Prices, Not Increase Them
Everything this guy says is fake or misleading. The chart is one of taxes, not RE cost https://t.co/LxtCmfzTkR RE correlates with lower, not higher, electricity prices. Of the 14 states meeting 50-124% of demand with WWS, 12 are 2-5...
Active Traders Need Separate Gold Technical Rules
If u are super active you need technicals and rules for Gold $gld as well. Asset allocations are a different set of rules. https://t.co/8xijX9YbgS
Hormuz Closure Cuts 30% Fertilizer Supply, Spurs Food Prices
OUT NOW - @JLinvilleFert on how Strait of Hormuz's closure has blocked >30% of world's fertilizer exports & degraded farming economics. Upward fert & food price risk. It's bad. Apple 🔊https://t.co/cMO23J6a4g Spotify📽️ https://t.co/CX48AK9HEc YouTube📽️ https://t.co/qx5Od1DJd1 https://t.co/uA1oP879mc
Weekend Read: Paul Krugman on the Hormuz Shock
As a first for me, I'm recommending @paulkrugman as a weekend read/listen. @robin_j_brooks makes it possible with a discussion on the Hormuz shock. https://t.co/aQ64hxAHxb