Hormuz Offset Claims Exaggerated, Real Capacity Far Lower
Bunch of people have asked so to answer directly: these Hormuz offset numbers are entirely bunk. Absolutely fair to be optimistic about the war ending and Hormuz reopening, but it’s fundamentally flawed to say we’re offset the Hormuz supply loss and irresponsible to clam it’s not a serious ongoing crisis. Bad estimates (the reality below) 🇸🇦 7M: Saudi Reroute (That’s total East -West pipeline capacity, already had 2-2.5 on the line so remaining “swing” from Gulf to Red Sea is 4.5-5.0 MMbpd) 📈 4.25M: Pre-War Surplus (We did have a pre-war surplus, but it was closer to 2 MMbpd, and even that remains disputed—I was on the bearish side of the debate) 🇨🇳 2M: China Safe-Passage (There is no steady cleared safe passage) 🇦🇪 1.5M: UAE ADCOP reroute (Again, this is the pipe capacity—swing is more like 0.5-0.7) 🇮🇷 1M: Iran Jask Bypass (This is silly, Jask never demonstrated that capacity but more fundamentally Iran Hormuz flows actually remain higher than that at 1.5+ MMbpd) 🇮🇳 400k: India Safe-Passage (There is no steady cleared safe passage) In reality, we have ~13 MMbpd of upstream Gulf production offline, with no sustainable offset—SPRs, etc. are only a temporary help. Today’s Trump blockade would raise that to more than 15 MMbpd.
Blockade Cuts Iran's Oil Revenue, Exposes Economic Fragility
A blockade collapses the blue bars below to zero. This collapses Iran's business model, which means there's no money for imports and the red bars go to zero. Iran is a gas station masquerading as an Islamic Republic. Time to...
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#SPX has to drop 7.3% from current levels to break the March lows of 6,316. #SPX has to drop 4.25% from current levels to make April a red month.
Housing Market Split: Hartford 11 Days, Austin 82
The current housing market bifurcation, as told by median days to pending The typical home listed for sale in the Hartford, CT metro area goes pending in 11 days, compared to 82 days in the Austin, TX metro area Our latest ResiClub...
70‑80% of New Sellers Are Mortgage‑Financed Buyers
New listings data ranged between 30K-80K per week seasonally, 70%-80% of these sellers are buyers, they don't sell and buy with cash. Most buy with mortgages. If you can't get this simple concept, I am no use to you both,...
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Hyperliquid showing #SPX down 2.3% which Correlates to about a #SPY $665. Actual Futes open in 3 hrs
Oil Prices Likely to Top $115, Stay Long
According to @Polymarket, there is now a 64% chance that US oil prices will exceed $115/barrel this month. I agree. Stay long oil. AMERICANS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP. https://t.co/NCKsBE3xYX
Traders Expect SPX Pullback After Two‑Week Rally
I’d think a downside retracement will Be a welcome sign for traders after the size of the two week rally. What’s everyone’s guess for 6:30 eastern tonight for the $spx futures. They will trade all night and who knows news...
Energy Drives March CPI Spike, Spillover Risks Loom
WEI LI BlackRock: Energy contributed the most to March's CPI surge. How much will the bleed-through be to the rest of the economy? https://t.co/OPcuN31SGl
Older Buyers Driving Mortgage Rate Lockdown, Data Shows
Again, if you analyze the buyer profile data, there’s no logical way we experienced a mortgage rate lockdown. The largest group of buyers tends to be older; the coupon data consistently showed this as they sold their homes with lower...
Market Watch Claims Falling Futures Despite Closed Market
Amusing that MW says futures are moving lower when they're obv closed, this lady doesn't want to be writing during the back nine https://t.co/sHdhxZ7dE0 https://t.co/eUWgp9AmMe
Saudi Arabia Gains as Oil Prices Surge, Rival Vanishes
The House of Saud wins with higher oil prices and the elimination of a regional competitor
Egypt's Inflation Surge Mirrors Excess Money Supply Growth
Egypt’s inflation rate is 15.2%/yr. Egypt's money supply is growing at 16.9%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth rate of 11.1-15.1%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Egypt's 3-5%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/Daeo3HbmBW
Hormuz Blockade Threatens Oil Supply, Markets Await China or Trump
Strait of Hormuz blockade is live 🚢❌ 20% of world oil = gone 🛢️ Equities gap down 📉 Oil gap up 📈 $115 WTI on the table 🎯 One question matters: does China blink first or does Trump? 🇨🇳🇺🇸 Trade...
Saudi Summons Iraqi Envoy over Cross‑border Oil Attacks
Saudi Arabia summoned the Iraqi ambassador in Riyadh, saying that some of the most recent attacks against the kingdom were launched "from Iraqi territory." (KSA likely means some of the attacks during the night of April 7-8 that targeted Saudi oil...
US Misunderstands Existential Threat to China, Russia, Iran Supply Chains
100%. Virtually no one in US seems to understand a) This is existential to China & Russia as well as Iran b) What that potentially implies for global supply chains
Oversold Tech Stocks Offer Fresh Buying Opportunities
I went through hundreds of charts this weekend and there's obviously lots of carnage in tech, growth, cloud, cyber, software, fintech, etc... many stocks down -40% or more in the past 6+ months... many multiples getting compressed by 60% or...
Commodities Futures Add Value to Balanced Portfolios
If you look at the data, investing in commodities futures makes sense within the context of a total portfolio approach. https://t.co/KYqknJKQ54
Turkey Drains Securities and Gold to Fund FX Intervention
Indeed. Turkey sold a ton of fx (essentially draining its securities portfolio) and sold/ swapped gold to generate even more fx to fund its massive March intervention ... 1/x https://t.co/RsDslEBwvB
Most Assets Slide, Oil Climbs Ahead of Monday Open
Taking stock of key markets through crypto and other proxies to get a loose expectation for Monday's open: - Bitcoin (BTCSUD) down -2.9% - Dow down -1.3% - Gold (XAUUSD) down -2.8% - US Oil up +2.9%
Lowest‑P/E Stocks Explode: Micron Up 520% Year‑to‑Date
The cheapest stock in America is up 520% in a year. The 10 lowest-P/E stocks are up 70% YoY. Micron has the lowest P/E in the S&P 500 at just 4.4x. Disclosure: long $MU https://t.co/W2gEcOm2By
Data Shows Mortgage Rate Lock‑Down Theory Overstated
If the mortgage rate lock-down theory were a real thing, then existing home sales would be near 2 million because the 4 generational sellers that were buyers since late 2022 would not have sold and bought homes. As the data...
Stop Taco Debates, R
at some point you have to stop debating “taco” and think about how you’re going to invest differently in a completely changed world… https://t.co/duln6vPvGQ
Coutts Raises Minimum to £3 Million, Heightening Exclusivity
King Charles’ bank just got even more exclusive Coutts, the centuries old private bank to the British establishment, triples the minimum to £3M https://t.co/dosmyLSXbu
84% Chance S&P Hits New High, Yet 1966 Crash Warns
The odds of the S&P 500 making a new ATH in Q2 after retracing 75% of the downtrend are 84%, but beware the 1966 case which turned into a 23% crash into October. https://t.co/aV92MKXo9S
SPY and QQQ Need Specific Drops to Fill Gaps
For those keeping score at home: It would take declines to 659.61 in $SPY and 588.98 in $QQQ to fill Wednesday's gaps. (Reminder: There's no law that says they have to be filled...) https://t.co/XMoxZZ4gJv
National Inventory Nears Negative YoY, but Not 2008 Levels
The national inventory is on the verge of going negative year over year. States like Florida that have seen a clear year-over-year decline were working from more elevated levels. Context is key, it's not worse than 2008, doom porn is...
Maximize Tax-Free Growth: Contribute to 2025 Roth IRA Now
Since the April 15 deadline is coming up remember that you can still contribute for the 2025 year for your Roth IRA The Roth IRA is one of the greatest wealth building tools available. Make use of it if you can...
Value‑Add Real Estate Profits Without Rent Growth
This seems to be one of the biggest misconceptions “Real estate investors need rent growth” No they don’t On a value-add deal, you make money even if rents decrease. You’re underwriting to *current* market rent $2.5MM profit if rents stay flat, $1.2MM profit if...
Emerging Market Small Caps Surge as US Equities Lag
Emerging Market small caps are ripping, USA equities least strong m/m (but everything is higher) @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/DpXLRW0nez
Key US Maritime Dilemmas in Gulf and Red Sea
Three questions: 1) Would the US stop Chinese-flagged vessels going in-and-out the Persian Gulf? And if the tankers don’t stop? 2) What’s the plan if the Houthis of Yemen blockade the Bab al-Mandeb? 3) Would the U.S. stop Iranian tankers...
First Weekend Stock Move: S&P 500 Drops 1.5%
This is the first time we see any weekend action in stocks since S&P500 futures started trading 24/7/365 onchain. Looks like the S&P500 is down 1.5% from Friday's close https://t.co/YJIJyP4KtZ
Premium Users Get This Week’s Top Trade Ideas
Premium Users - Top Trade Ideas for the Week of April 13, 2026: The Best, on the blog and here https://t.co/ftQfOy5d50
Spotlight Trades Deliver Big Wins Amid Q1 Turmoil
Back in the saddle... so much to catch up on and pre for earnings season Pretty wild looking back at Q1 turmoil, Spotlight trades still had a great hit rate for members with big wins in INTC, NFLX, MS, MRVL, AMZN...
NVDA Above 20‑Week MA, Needs $197.63 Breakout
$NVDA - Closed the week above the 20 week MA which indicates that it may have made an intermediate term low last week, but that will be confirmed only if it breaks the pattern of lower highs and lower lows,...
MSFT Misses 200‑Week MA, Threatened by 345‑350 Support
$MSFT - Failed regaining the 200 week MA this week. Therefore, it's still at risk of dropping to the 345-350 major support range. https://t.co/9CSBJ5Taa5
Adopt California ADU Model, Create National Market
Illinois should align their ADU framework with California's highly successful ADU framework. We need a national common market for manufactured ADUs in particular to really drive costs down. This is theoretically something the federal government might coordinate, but, well...
Cheap Energy Evades Metering, Expensive Power Defies Measurement
Too Cheap to Meter, Too High to Measure read the full piece here: https://t.co/h5J0gTi7ew https://t.co/iFvBD73DvS
Staged Homes Fetch 10% More, Sell a Week Sooner
Fascinating: "staged homes sell for roughly 10% more and one week faster than comparable homes without furniture." https://t.co/5W7trDDx9w https://t.co/q0ff3oe93x
China to Restore Limited Ties with Taiwan After Opposition Visit
China says it will resume some ties with Taiwan after visit by opposition leader - POLITICO https://t.co/vCYJCuJUps
New Global Opportunity Index Ranks Countries by Long‑Term Returns
the Clocktower Global Opportunity Index is live 🔥 we built an index to show our selection criteria for long-run investment return potential across the world. view all countries and adjust our factor weightings here: https://t.co/Ltmo4wt0Gk https://t.co/onOARPsiBm
Stocks Above 20DMA Plunge, Consolidation Likely
SPX: The percentage of stocks above their 20DMA has reversed from 70%, usually a consolidation follows; this time potentially below the 50DMA. The market was driven by strength in Tech and Materials, overall participation was negative. #SPY
Existing Home Sales Data Arriving Tomorrow, Shows Inventory Trends
Existing home sales will be released tomorrow, providing a historical view of active inventory. https://t.co/Numo1lkNMr
Americans Trade Long Commutes for Larger New Homes
And this is why DR Horton is able to build and sell 100,000 homes per year Americans want a large new house … and they are willing to trade long commutes for them.
Rapid Oil Surge Signals Deflation, Not Inflation
The most critical thing to watch this week is if long duration yields fall into the Oil surge. We are on the verge of a massive deflation scare. You read that right. The SPEED of the oil move is DEFLATIONARY. The market has this...
Big Tech Valuations Hit Multi-Year Lows
$NVDA 17.00x out-year EPS $MSFT P/E ratio now below 20 $META well below the market at 18.3x @finviz_com https://t.co/1sFShbTxQX
Turkey's Economy Fueled by Dwindling Gold Reserves
Turkey appears to be living off its gold reserves. Find out more in the Chartbook Top Link of today. https://t.co/E1jmvOnLzt
Invest, Don't Just Save; Cash Loses to Markets
Growth of $10,000 since April 2016: High yield savings account: $12,534 $VGT (IT ETF): $74,973 $VOO (S&P 500): $39,064 Keeping cash long term is not a good strategy (aside from emergency funds) You can't save your way to wealth, you have to invest.
Poland and Baltics Poised to Outpace Italy, Spain
"For all of the intellectual dressing, Hungary has ended up looking more like Vladimir Putin’s mafia state, while Poland and the Baltic states, which adopted more classic market solutions, are on course to be richer than Spain and Italy." https://t.co/5aciS10VYB
TIPS Rates Refine Social Security Breakeven Age Calculations
Breakeven Real Rates For Delayed Social Security Claiming ➡️ How incorporating available rates on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) into advisors' analyses of Social Security claiming strategies can lead to more accurate "breakeven ages". https://t.co/DSv4rxmgAa #WeekendReading (Nathan Dutzmann | Advisor Perspectives)