Record‑high Loans Boost Outlook for Bank Earnings
Looking forward to strong bank eps this week. This will help: Federal Reserve H.8 report show both loans and deposits ended 1Q26 at record highs. In 1Q26 loans jumped 7.5% y/y - its fastest pace in 3 years. $XLF $BAC $WFC $MS $GS $TFC
Japan‑1990s and China Today Share Real‑estate Crisis Dynamics
New @nberpubs: "A Tale of Two Countries – The Real Estate Crises in 1990s Japan and Contemporary China" https://t.co/au6sFcLXSp "striking parallels in investment dynamics and consumption responses despite profound institutional differences." https://t.co/yz5TYRePB8
Sector Churn Protects Index, Crisis Far From
I don't have a particularly strong view on equities here—the sector churn is conducive for active managers and leaves the index protected to the downside—but for those who claim this crisis is "over" ... what are you smoking?! 1/2
Crude Oil Joins 2026 ‘Up‑Too‑Much’ Risk List
Up-Too-Much Risks in 2026 - Crude May Follow Natural Gas, Silver Bitcoin in 2025, followed by silver, gold, copper and natural gas in 2026 -- and most importantly, crude oil -- can fall into an "up-too-much" category by year-end. There are...
Gold Production Rises, Cash Surges, Guidance Stays Steady
Minera Alamos $MAI.V $MAIFF Q1 2026: Produced 8,734 oz gold at Pan mine Sold 9,134 oz Cash up to $46M (from $34M YE2025) ~18k oz cumulative since Oct 2025 acquisition. 2026 guidance unchanged: 32-38k oz.
Energy Markets Stay Calm Amid Third Gulf War Lull
We're in the "no-fighting, no-peace, and no-oil" phase of the Third Gulf War. The energy market remains incredibly sanguine: despite Monday's rally, oil and European natural gas prices are below a week ago.
Copper’s 2026 Rally Threatened by Equity Market Decline
Copper's Big Green Candle Risks Turning Red in 2026 The last three down years for copper (2015, 2018, 2022) coincided with drops in the US stock market, suggesting a dependency on a rising equity tide in 2026. Full report on the...
Extreme Fear Fades as Markets Weather Hormuz Tension
Trump ordered a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz overnight. Oil surged 8% above $100. The UK refused to participate. France is forming its own mission to reopen the strait. And Bitcoin dropped... 1%. After 12 straight days...
Spyre's SPY001 Achieves 40% Remission in UC Trial
Spyre $SYRE just reported SPY001 (long-acting alpha4beta7 antibody) ulcerative colitis induction data. Here's the efficacy chart, notable for a 40% clinical remission rate at week 12, albeit with small number of patients. https://t.co/aEoLWPRjEL
Family Offices Confront Succession, Tech, and Downsizing Trends
Monday's Family Office Buzz email There's something for everyone ∘ Robinhood's cofounder on wealth platforms ∘ Family offices and direct deals ∘ Bloomberg's family office playbook ∘ The cost and structure of a $10M family office ∘ A succession wave in family businesses ∘ Billionaires in support...
Iran Conflict Triggers Oil Shortage, Reshapes Market Winners
The Iran war has slashed oil exports from the Persian Gulf, creating a global supply shortage that's just starting to hit markets. As prices are driven up and broader economic impacts unfold, winners and losers will begin to emerge. Full Newsletter:...
Iran's 13-Day Oil Shutdown Signals Permanent Damage
The sharpest Iran economic analysis out there right now comes from @miadmaleki, Iranian-born former US Treasury official. 13 days. That's when Iran shuts off its own oil wells. Hormuz blockade = nowhere to store oil. Can't restart them easily. Permanent damage. Not a...
US‑Iran Talks Collapse; Blockade Threatens Trump‑Xi Summit
US-Iran negotiations failed over the weekend. The risk-off moves today though have mostly been mild. US blockade of Iranian ports could disrupt next month's Trump-Xi meeting. Bab-el-Mandeb Strait may also be brought into play. See https://t.co/13UStEpBOS https://t.co/1u6Xn5BKh9
China's Q
1/3 According to the People's Bank of China, the total amount of aggregate new financing in the first quarter of 2026 was RMB 14.83 trillion, or 2.3% less than in the first quarter of 2025, with more than 100% of the...
Live Premarket Stock Update: Redler’s #630Club Highlights
⏰ Scott Redler’s #630club - LIVE Premarket Stock Market Update ➡️ Free VIP List Newsletter: https://t.co/EW4O2nc6Yl $NVDA $TSLA $IBIT $SNDK https://t.co/QM03KUSc1S
US Inflation Stays High, No Fed Cut Yet
Bond Market Message = #HFL = Higher For Longer on US Inflation with no Fed Rate Cut bailout (yet)
Oil Surges 8.2%, Signaling New Quad3 Cycle Highs
Did you buy more Oil and Energy Stocks when they were on sale last week? Oil inflating another +8.2% here with immediate-term upside in our Risk Range™ Signal to new #Quad3 Cycle Highs https://t.co/ye9Xfr03uQ
ALLO's Alpha-3 DLBCL Data Set to Spark Pre‑Market Move
Key $ALLO catalyst coming pre market today, with first data from cema-cel's Alpha-3 study in DLBCL consolidation. What to look for: https://t.co/a19BVEppqP
Germany's Market Slides 1.1% Amid Quad3 Stagflation
GERMANY: been an easier short than $SPY (which I'm not short), down another -1.1% here this morning with #Quad3 Stagflation hitting that economy hard this summer https://t.co/GlXz59NyOM
HSBC's Kettner Stays Bullish Despite Modest News
HSBC's Max Kettner is still bullish: "We don't need a full return to normality in order to fade the moves of the last 6 weeks. Given our positioning framework is still sending the most bullish signal for risk assets since...
CTA Buying Surge May Quickly Flip to Selling
The Flows @t1alpha CTA Buying (epic last week) can easily become Selling Will walk you through the math on The Macro Show https://t.co/Z8lRHULEn1
Tech Stocks Show K‑Shape Recovery You Can’t Ignore
The K-Shape economy for others may not be your problem. But this K-Shape in Tech stocks actually is 👀 https://t.co/jQdzcPqdUp
Hungarian Forint Leads Global Currency Gains Today
Hungarian forint is far and away the best performing major currency in the world today https://t.co/fg6Z1FKw5u
Beyond Price: Analyze Volume and Volatility Momentum
When you "look" at markets, are you just looking at the color and the "Moving Average" of price or the ROC of the volume and volatility of that price? https://t.co/qgJeZy0Z5c
SPX Implied Vol Premium Plummets From 95% to 13
$SPX Implied Vol collapsed to a +13% premium (vs. 30-day realized) vs. a +95% premium 1-month ago https://t.co/JxuNpzgXz1
Gold Volatility Signals Caution for US Equities
Cross Asset Class Vol as of Friday's close = yellow lights for US Equities; Gold Vol in particular matters at this level https://t.co/VoSL6lvMfU
SPY Volume Decelerates After Seven Straight Gains
VOLUME: CTAs were still chasing Friday, but total volume continued to decelerate post 7 straight up days for $SPY https://t.co/4GpuK0sjtf
Good News, Falling Stock Signals Bearish Trend
If all the news about your stock is good and it’s still going down, that is a bearish signal few traders have learned to listen to. https://t.co/DgIP78v7Wv
SPY's Friday Rally Masked 18:1 Downside Risk
For those of you who chased $SPY on green on Friday, there was only 18:1 downside vs. upside in our immediate-term Risk Range™ Signal. No worries
Two‑Week Bounce Shows Market Resilience Globally
Mixed/small red arrows around the World as I’d say this is “in stride” after the size of the two week bounce that just took place. https://t.co/HVI7wGoFBW
MRX Thrives in Chaos, Poised for Multibagger Upside
War, volatility, chaos - $MRX's earnings love all of it. - Financial infra firm dressed up as a brokerage - Counter-cyclical by design - 30%+ earnings growth expected - Trades at 8-9x P/E vs. 13-14x for peers - Multibagger upside if the re-rate happens Pitch by...
EKF Acquires Real‑Time Glucose Tracker, P/E Declines
#EKF buying "Real-time glucose and lactate tracking for sports performance monitoring" from Beep Insights AB. ShareScope has fwd p/e 15.1 falling to 13.4 but no Dividend. Worth investigating. I don't hold.
JNEO Lands £1.7m Order; Still Fairly Valued
#JNEO won £1.7m of Purchase Orders for passenger displays "for a large local authority in the south of England". ShareScope has Fwd p/e 12.9; strip out cash and it's still a pretty reasonable rating. I don't hold.
Cordel Secures District Line LiDAR Deal Amid Rail Digitisation Surge
Macro: urban rail digitisation accelerates; Cordel wins District Line LiDAR+AI rollout after Central Line success; key: TfL adoption and in‑tunnel geo‑location; risk: execution; trading insight: initiate a small long in CRDL on pullbacks. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Hedgeye's VIX Risk Range Analysis Delivers Recent Alpha
Undaunted and strictly process oriented, @KeithMcCullough @hedgeye provided a valuable analysis of the VIX risk range that producedexcess returns (alpha) in the last several trading days. That analysis was worth the price of admission alone. @dougkass @SamofAmerica @HedgeyeDJ
Embrace Volatility: Buy Low, Retire Rich
Do you plan to sell all your investments and retire this year? If not, you should actually want prices to go down in the short term so you can buy more at lower levels. I know I do. For example, if I’m retiring...
Undiscovered Miner Gem Sparks Unexpected Excitement
WTF do I know about miners BUT this still looks like an undiscovered gem. #ORR https://t.co/gD8WEwQlC3
Markets Stumble Amid Middle East Perfect Storm
The market is reacting to a "perfect storm" of geopolitical and operational shocks centered in the Middle East.
SP Group Urges Tata Sons Listing for Valuation, Liquidity
The Strategic Push: The SP Group (which holds an ~18.4% stake in Tata Sons) is advocating for transparency and governance, but more importantly, a listing would provide a clear valuation and a liquidity event for their massive holding.
Midcaps Surge Past Large Caps, Ratio Hits New High
This one chart will keep me on the right side of the market. No matter what the news, the midcaps have outperformed the large caps over the last month. The ratio is making a new high today. Why worry about...
Gold Follows Structure; Wait for Confirmation, Not Prediction
Most traders miss this simple truth… Gold is not moving randomly It is reacting to structure and liquidity After a clear shift in direction, price is now retracing into a key zone where reactions matter most The real edge is not predicting It is waiting...
WISE Posts Strong Results, Nasdaq Listing May 11
Very strong results by $WISE in my view. Expected listing on the Nasdaq is already on May 11! (less than a month)
CHH Shows Strong Results, Yet Key Line Misphrased
#CHH results as robust as their crockery…but one line stood out as both critical to the investment case…and mysteriously badly worded https://t.co/BtL3NbzipO
Active Share Reveals How Much Funds Diverge From Index
The difference between an active fund and a passive fund is about how your positions different from the index. Learn about Active share here, a concept that helps you identify how much a fund hugs the index.
Focus on Big Winners, Not Just Avoiding Mistakes
Most investors obsess over not making mistakes. Peter Lynch obsessed over making sure the winners were big enough to cover them. That's the whole game.
Unveiling the Dollar’s Parallel Life
A cup of tea and Sunday as the Lord intended: listening and learning about The Dollar's Parallel Life https://t.co/pxVH4gPcrk with the brilliant Izzy Kaminska. https://t.co/VhALGHNKQm
Gazprom EU Exports Surge 21%, Russia Hits 15% Share
Gazprom Exports to the EU Jump 21% Y/Y in March as Hormuz Crisis Tighten LNG Supply Russia's gas share in EU gas imports jumps to 15.1% (with 8 Charts) https://t.co/0WqJLzqydw
Middle East War Slashes Asian LNG Deliveries to 2020 Lows
The war in the Middle East is choking LNG supply to Asia 🚢⚠️ Deliveries to Asia fell the the lowest level since 2020, when the Covid pandemic crashed demand Not a single LNG shipment has gone through Hormuz since the war began...
Place Stops on Market Structure, Not Fear
Most traders place stops based on fear, not structure. Too tight… right into liquidity. If you’re not using market structure, you’re guessing. Higher highs, higher lows, lower highs, lower lows. That’s where your stop loss should be built from. Below structure in an uptrend. Above structure...
Solo Lawyers Must Save Early to Build Wealth
Solo lawyers often earn well—but don’t build wealth. Why? No one taught them how. They went to law school not business school. Income goes back into the practice… but a practice is not a financial plan. Start small. Save 5–10%. Build structure early. The...