Gold Dips Below $5k, Breaks 50‑day SMA After 146 Days
Gold has dropped below 5,000 and cleared its 50-day SMA for the first time in 146 trading days above the moving average. We haven't seen a bullish move of that magnitude (spot above 50 SMA) since March 17, 2008...Remarkable coincidence https://t.co/yoJTpSTTBz
Media Misreports Diesel Carbon Price, Overstates Emission Costs
The media's go-to on all things food supply chain related missed a 21c/L drop in carbon prices on diesel fuel, and wrote an article on the implications of the no-longer-existent carbon price on combustion emissions increasing to 29c/L.
Using AVWAP to Manage Puts and Hedge Positions
$IBIT - I know it's a messy looking chart...but this is how I'm managing my puts (noted yesterday). Get above that AVWAP - ill close it. *Also functioning as a hedge against my $IGV and $COIN positions. https://t.co/pSBzB90JwN
Dow Gaps Down, Stays in Multi‑Week Downtrend
US equities open lower with the Dow gapping down and in turn holding to its multi-week descending channel https://t.co/ZEWi9gngsN
War Drives Gas Prices Up 86 Cents, 28.8% Rise
Yesterday was day #17 of the war. The national average of gasoline is up 86 cents (middle panel) Or 28.8% (bottom panel) https://t.co/I26G2JAxHr
Iran Gas Strike Could Push Turkey to Import More LNG
An unintended consequence of the strikes on Iran’s gas fields? Turkey may be forced to import more LNG 🇹🇷 🚢 Iran sends gas from South Pars to Turkey via a pipeline (making up ~15% of the country’s demand) If that’s shut,...
Markets Signal Persistent Oil Shock Beyond Short-Term
The market is gradually pricing in that this is more than a short-term oil shock. Below: white: oil futures curve, current blue: oil futures curve, a week ago orange: oil futures curve, 6 months ago https://t.co/8wQF3jaa8y
Save 15% Early, Secure Retirement by 65
If you want to retire at 65, you have to save at least 15% of your salary (including 401k match) starting at 25. Use that money to: 1. Get full employer's 401k match 2. ESPP (if applicable) 3. HSA (if eligible) 4. Roth IRA 5. Finish...
Homebuilder Sales Stall as Rates, Oil Concerns Loom
Through mid-March, homebuilder sales and pricing trends have underwhelmed. Not a great start to the spring selling season, with homebuilders we survey noting Iran/oil/rising interest rates becoming part of the consumer psyche for staying on the sidelines.
Trade the Setup, Not the Catalyst
📺 BIG DAY FOR MEMORY STOCKS The real move in names like $MU, $SNDK, and $WDC happened before $MU earnings, not because of them. A textbook sequence played out: red dog reversal, relative strength vs a weak market, clean holds of...
Carbon Diesel Tax Drop Disproves Linear Increase Assumption
Carbon price directly applied on diesel decreased by 21c/L from 2024-26. It was scheduled to increase to 29c/l. The Food Professor's math assumes that linear increase over time remained in effect. No, it's not the CFR or the industrial price,...
Sell March LULU Strangle for Credit, Await IV Drop
$LULU "Trade Idea 4: Sell the March 140/187.50 Strangle for a $2.20 credit.' looks to expire, let IV fall then can buy to close or watch
Inflation Surge Puts Fed Meeting at Crisis Crossroads
Inflation Just EXPLODED 🔥 Does the Fed Have a Crisis on its Hands? Stocks crashed. Gold collapsed. Dollar soared Fed meets TODAY - and this one number could change everything for 2026👇 Follow for updates $SPY $QQQ $DIA $GLD $DXY $USDJPY $ES...
Expect Regular Double‑digit Drops; only True Investors Persist
The market has had a negative return about 1 in every 4 years. You can expect a drop of over 10% every other year. You can expect a drop of over 20% about every four years. Successful investors know this. If you can’t...
Most Sectors Missed Breakouts; only Energy Holds
So many important areas of the market have failed their breakouts....if you use intermarket analysis...why would the assumption be small caps won't? We have no confirmation from anywhere else in the market it would? Energy(ish) stocks literally the only area of the...
Rate Shifts Since Jan FOMC Concentrated at Front End
Rates moves from Jan FOMC to today are basically all in the front end https://t.co/z4SHlodCLM
12‑Month Oil Futures Surge Past March Spike
Oil for delivery in 12 months is now way above its spike on March 9. Even if the futures curve were a market forecast of prices -- which as @Rory_Johnston will remind us, it is absolutely not -- that forward...
Zero Rates Spark Price Spikes, Then Rent Collapse
File under: Wish someone had told me When interest rates go to zero, the main reason to sell real estate is bc pricing goes crazy. But a secondary reason to sell is that interest rates at zero will catalyze a development boom,...
Shale Boom Turns US Oil Vulnerability Into Strength
As in decades past, high oil prices are causing fears of recession & pain at the pump. But the shale boom means the US now has the potential to turn a previous vulnerability to a source of strength. My latest with...
Early Position Management Saves Traders as SPX Swings
$spx futures from +35 to -25 It’s good to get up early and manage ur positions. $spy chart https://t.co/jgRx8rsmyg
PPI Shows No $80+ Oil Days in February
Producer Prices - How much oil data (days > $80) is in this PPI inflation data? PPI vs Brent Move -- Zero days above $80 in this Feb PPI print—WTI cruised the entire month between $61–$67 (avg ~$64.50, peak 67.31 on...
Control of Hormuz Determines Iran War’s Global Impact
Comparing what is now happening with what has happened in analogous historical situations and triangulating my thinking with smart, well-informed leaders and experts has always helped me make better decisions. I have found that most wars are filled with big...
Gold's 8% Drop Threatens Debasement Trade Momentum
Gold is now down 8% from before the war (blue). That may be due to the crazy run-up in precious metals and people locking in gains now that uncertainty is so high. But - the longer this sell-off lasts -...
China’s 90% Model Redefines Global Economic Power
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤. What if China’s economic power is much bigger than we realize? In just 45 seconds, I’ll reveal the truth behind China’s 90% Model and how it’s reshaping industries globally. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐥𝐥 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧: The insidious strategy behind...
Israel Hits Iran's South Pars, World's Largest Gas Field
Israel just struck Iranian infrastructure at South Pars, the world's biggest natural gas field. This natgas episode is definitely worth a listen ⬇️⬇️
BCOM Nears Key Resistance, Mirrors 2008 Surge
Peak Inklings: $120 Crude, $6 Copper, $5 Corn, $7 Natural Gas - Up almost 25% in 2026 to March 17, the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM) is showing its diversification attributes. Will autocorrelation be avoided this time? In 2008,...
US Strikes on Iran Risk 5% Global Oil Loss
Iran produces 4-5% of the world's total oil supply, making it the 3rd largest producer in OPEC. The best case for this conflict just took a leg lower. At best, this ends in the next 1-2 months and the Strait...
US Abundance Could Cap 2026 Corn at $5, Crude at $120
$5 Corn May Mark a 2026 Peak Alongside $120 Crude - The December corn future (Dec26) stretch to almost $4.99 a bushel around the onset of the Iran war on March 9 may have peak inklings akin to Dec22's $7.66...
US Supply Surge Could Pull WTI Back to $53
What Stops WTI Crude From Reverting Toward $53? The December WTI crude oil future (Dec26), which becomes front-month just before the midterms, was at roughly $76 a barrel on March 17 and may revert toward $53. Before the closing of the...
FOMC Day May Reset Market’s Minimal Cut Outlook
FOMC day and "extended pause" hedging pressuring whites. 2026 cuts down to 23 bps. Of course, Fed has an opportunity reset all of this via FOMC statement, SEP, and presser. Should be a fun day https://t.co/pMoJFfaIiY
Natural Gas Likely to Stabilize Around $3‑$5
Natural Gas $3 or $5 Near Year-End? Risks Appear to Lean Lower - The second consecutive colder-than-normal winter pushed the front US natural gas future to a high of $7.83 per MMBtus in January, and the price near $3 on...
10‑Year Yield Falls, Yet 10y10y Hits Record Risk Premium
The 10-year Treasury yield (blue) has fallen, pulled down by expectations of Fed easing and a lower 2-year yield (black). But that's a deceptive picture. 10y10y forward yield is near record highs (red). Markets price big risk premia in long-term...
QQQ Drops 4% After Israeli Strikes on Iranian Gas
$QQQ off 4 from pre-market high on news of Israeli strikes on Iranian gas facilities... https://t.co/CTzBR2yMse
Key $450‑$451 GLD Zone to Watch
If u sold strength or stopped out in $gld last week. This $450-$451 one area is an interesting spot to watch https://t.co/BNDVEeTVUI
Targeting Upstream Energy Assets Signals Unchecked Escalation
Both sides are now targeting upstream (ie, production) oil and natural gas assets. Is this an attempt to escalate to de-escalate? Or is it simply a sign that escalation is spiralling out of control?
Fed Decision Zone Signals Hedge Opportunity Near $670
📺 WHY THIS FED MOVE СOULD BE SOLD 🛑 Get my newsletter tomorrow: https://t.co/Rqp84Wg39F The market has shown short-term strength going into the Fed today. $SPY has rallied meaningfully from around $662.34 to the $674 area, a solid move given the macro backdrop...
Breadth Clears 5‑day, Inverse ETFs Dominate Market Signal
Breadth just cleared the 5-day, and the best-looking charts are still the inverse ETFs. That tells you everything about this tape. 3/18: Transition phase. Initiating small pilots in theme-in-play names. Not forcing it. https://t.co/tWty14oJip
U.S. Shouldn't Manipulate Oil Prices via Market Intervention
COLUMN: The US shouldn't try to influence energy prices by intervening in the financial market for oil. "... The oil futures and options market isn’t a casino where the US government can self-appoint itself as the house that always wins..." @Opinion...
Energy Soars, S&P Plummets: Stagflation Warning
$XLE at all-time highs. $SPY at 2026 lows. Energy up 23% since January while the S&P is down nearly 4%. This is not rotation. This is the market screaming about stagflation. https://t.co/CzWrHdP55I
US Waiver Redirects Russian Oil to India, Squeezes China
Macro: US waiver shifts Russian crude to India, squeezing China; grades flipped to Brent premium 🛢️ Drivers: waiver, Hormuz closure, voyage economics. Risks: geopolitics, supply swings. Trade: buy Indian refinery exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
FT‑Targeted Biotech Stocks Deliver Short‑Term Alpha
Good read on Biopharma M&A by RBC , little mention to Betaville, Bloomberg, FT , oand ofc the standout $RVMD Our biopharma team is out with an M&A discussion piece - given the importance of M&A to the sector, it is...
Expect Fed‑Driven Volatility Spike, Real Move After 2 PM
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – March 18, 2026 🚨 Big macro day ahead — inflation + Fed decision = expect volatility spikes and potential trend shifts. This is a trader’s day, not a passenger’s day ⚡️🧠 Macro Focus: 0830 - PPI (inflation...
Iran Claims US‑Israeli Strikes Target South Pars Gas Field
Iran said US and Israeli airstrikes hit its giant South Pars natural gas field and associated infrastructure, according to state television. Petrochemical facilities in nearby Asaluyeh also came under attack, it added.
Warrant Sold at Deep Discount, Enriching Hedge Fund, Hurting Shareholders
Unlike a convert which sells a warrant at a relatively fair implied volatility and monetizes that vol for the benefit of existing shareholder. This atrocious deal sold the warrant at a massive massive discount to fair implied volatility and...
Hope Boosts Risk Appetite Ahead of BoC, FOMC
Hope Lifts Risk Appetites Ahead of the Bank of Canada and FOMC Meetings: There are three main talking points today. The first is the war. While it continues to rage, more oil is reportedly moving through the Strait of Hormuz...
Japan's Gas Prices Surge on Conflict and Weak Yen
Japan's gasoline price hits a record high 📈⚠️ 🛢️ The Middle East conflict and weak yen are delivering a double whammy to Japanese consumers 👉 Japan depends on the Middle East for most of its oil https://t.co/NMJurOwuQM https://t.co/ivLXm4sdIQ
High Oil Prices Aren’t Inflation, Policy Is
The Oil Price Myth Everyone Believes Oil’s near $93 a barrel. War is a factor, but prices were rising anyway. Key point: Rising prices from a shortage ≠ inflation. True inflation will come from the policies we ramp up because of...
Set Stop‑Loss Instantly to Cut Trading Stress
After each trade entry, immediately set a stop loss. This will greatly reduce your trading stress and anxiety. It helps your trading psychology.
Yield Curve Reflects Economic Quad Cycle, Not Daily Noise
YIELD CURVE: doesn't care about Taco Time Trading, Tourists, etc. It cares about The Quads (i.e. The Cycle) #Quad1 peaked in early FEB and the #Quad3 slowdown continues in the real economy this morning https://t.co/KVMr12qbUs
Scott Redler's Live Premarket Picks: NVDA, TSLA, IBIT
⏰ Scott Redler’s #630club - LIVE Premarket Stock Update ➡️ Free VIP List Newsletter: https://t.co/EW4O2nc6Yl $NVDA $TSLA $IBIT $SPY https://t.co/HVd20DAtel