Office-to-Residential Conversions Surge 28% as Loans Mature
Still plenty in the office>resi #conversion pipeline. Study by #RentCafe shows 90K+ in the process in early 26, up 28% from last year. 13d of office loans coming due drives the trend. #realestate #CRE #multifamily #YardiMatrix #mortgage https://t.co/gzewkNTvQh
Higher Rates Above 6.6% Dampening Demand
This is where the data in the past starts to get hit as in the past few years rates moving above 6.64% and above 7% impacts demand https://t.co/oiZjW5mQiD
Crude Oil Surges 20% Recently, 9% Daily Spike
Crude oil is up 20% in the last few weeks. Oil prices rose 9% in a single day.
Export Ban Cuts Gasoline, Spurs Diesel, Jet Fuel Surge
The US has been toying with the idea of a US oil export ban. This might briefly lower gasoline prices in the US, but it would drive up diesel and jet fuel costs and worsen the overall energy shock. ANOTHER HAIRBRAIN IDEA...
SPY Bounce Expected to Shrink After Trump Test
Second test on this support $SPY Trump "truth" about winding down coming up after the close? However, even if, just like a dropped ball reaction bounce will get smaller and smaller https://t.co/XbH7omawGT
Theta: Daily Rent That Erodes Options Value
Theta: The Rent You Pay for Holding Options Theta is the rent you pay for holding options. Every day, a slice of your premium evaporates, and the closer you get to expiration, the faster it burns. Example: Buy a $TSLA call...
BoE Doubts Iran War Will Spark UK Inflation
Bank of England rate-setters doubt that the Iran war will trigger a UK price spiral https://t.co/7RIt9Lei1J via @irinaanghel12 @KowalczeKamil @tomelleryrees https://t.co/nWmHGMb2Qb
New ETF Family Outperforms Wall Street Today
I see a new family of ETFs beating the Old Wall's bags, across the board today
Essential 80/20
Your $200K/year survival kit. Don't have time to read them all? Here's the 80/20 concepts (a thread🧵):
CTAs Unwind, Triggering Liquidity‑driven Price Decline
When CTAs unwind, they don't ask for permission. They sell into whatever liquidity is available. The signal is already at levels that preceded major drawdowns in 2022 and early 2024. Price follows positioning. It usually takes time a little longer than you...
Doubling BUXX, Keeping Heavy US Equity Short Bias
Just bought more $BUXX and still running Net Short US Equities with a big Russell $IWM Short
Sellers Surge, Buyers Plummet as Housing Supply Near Record
"record growth of potential sellers...record decline of potential buyers...near record new supply of housing units coming to the market."
Weak Dollar Fails to Lift Emerging Markets Amid Rising Yields
The dollar is below 100 on the index, down nearly 5% over twelve months. Textbook says this boosts emerging markets. But emerging market ETFs are down sharply. The Kospi just fell 3% in a session. That correlation isn't working. Why? US Treasury...
5s30s
5s30s just took out the low from Monday. Back end flattening aggressively post auction https://t.co/KwTSaaxDhY
U.S. Gas Prices Plunge: Permian Negative
While the world panics about the loss of Qatari LNG, your reminder that nat gas prices in the Permian (Waha hub) had been negative for 35 consecutive trading days — and counting. And that Henry Hub is at ~$3 per...
SPX Below Gamma Flip Signals Bigger Swings, Bull Recovery Needed
SPX is sitting 167 points below the gamma flip level. When price is below the flip, dealers are short gamma. They throttle vol moves instead of suppressing them. Swings get bigger in both directions. Bulls need a reclaim of 6,681 to get...
Tech Growth Stocks Face Triangle Breakdown Below 200‑Day MA
$ARKK Daily. Basket of high beta growth stocks. Another triangle breakdown attempt below 200-day m.a., as is case in many tech/growth stocks now https://t.co/f2DUz2WKZB
Redfin's Seller Data Is Misleading, Beware the Hype
If you men haven't learned that Redfin is playing you like a chump with their most sellers ever data, just look at their weekly pricing data since their chart came out. You guys are getting hustled. https://t.co/OJouoW3HqA
Complacency, Not Panic: Market Bottom Still Unseen
$SPY is down 5.8% from its January peak. $VIX is at 25. Not 40. Not 35. 25. That's not panic. That's complacency with a bad haircut. Real bottoms don't look like this. Real bottoms feel like this is never ending. We're not there yet. https://t.co/1iuW1srx3i
Tech‑heavy COMPQ Outperforms SPY/SPX as Market Guide
$COMPQ I know many use the $SPY and $SPX as the go to indices guide chart. I like the COMPQ as tech often leads both up and down https://t.co/SM1cwqb4GQ
War Prolongs Oil Price Surge Despite SPR Release
With Brent crude around $109, following the decision to release 400 million barrels from the SPR, along with waivers for Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil entering the market, the path is clear: The longer the war drags on, the higher...
Fib Tool Transforms Trading Without Traditional Indicators
I don't use any indicators but since I been put on to this fib tool.. game changer 🔥
Systematic Funds Still Long, Ready to Sell on Downtrend
Systematic funds haven't panic sold yet. CTA and vol-control models are sitting at neutral positioning right now. That means they still have long exposure to unwind. If this downtrend continues, these models will keep selling mechanically. No capitulation signal. Just more rules-based selling still...
JPMorgan Unveils CDS Basket to Short Major Tech Debt
JP Morgan has launched a basket of credit default swaps designed to let hedge funds bet against the debt of $GOOGL, $AMZN, $ORCL, $META, and $MSFT 👀 https://t.co/snSNwBvm2p
KLAR's Efficiency Gains Outshine Loan Loss Concerns
Investors focus too much on $KLAR loan losses provisions because of strong loan volume growth. They should focus more on $KLAR becoming a more efficient business by improving operating leverage. - Revenue per employee 3.6x from $344K to $1.24M. - The number of...
AI Boom Persists Despite Market Stress, Not a Bubble
The Mag 7 notwithstanding, the AI playbook (led by memory stocks and data centers, with software lagging behind) has not been materially impacted by the stress in the broader market. To me this strongly suggests that the AI boom continues...
Sky‑high Home Prices, Not Rates, Suppress Demand
The mainstream media is writing articles about how higher mortgage rates/the war are killing the "housing recovery". But that's wrong. Homebuyer demand remains near its lowest levels on record, and has not improved at all over the last 4 years. This has nothing...
Meta Poised to Fill Final Gap, Eyeing $494
$META - After today's crash it has filled all the gaps that go back to the April 2025 low, except one. The last unfilled gap is at 506.88 and this one is likely to be filled too in the near...
USD/JPY Pauses Below 160: Breakout or Reversal?
Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Stalls Below 160 – Breakout or Reversal? https://t.co/GZOTQAu87d $USDJPY Weekly Chart https://t.co/wFejZPDsD5
Maximize HSA Growth by Fully Investing in S&P
We have a rollover HSA ($25K) that is sitting in Fidelity and it is 100% invested in the S&P. We use our current HSA for any medical expenses which are few and far between.
Goldman Sachs Cuts India Rating, Nifty Target to 25,900
Goldman Sachs downgrades India to Market Weight and lowers NIFTY target to 25,900 from 29,300.
Asian Nations Dumped
Be careful not to confuse changes in valuation and changes in custodial patterns (after Russia's reserves were immobilized) with actual sales https://t.co/zTGz75N9rr
Tech ETFs Find Dual Support at Key Level
Dual support comes into play at (1) for Tech. Important support holds here for $QQEW & $SPY https://t.co/UBxt5P5QT7
Hormuz Closure Likely Drives 10‑Year Yields Higher
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
Young High Earner Leverages 401k and Beyond
25-year-old We started working together just under 1 year ago. Makes $300K as a W-2 and another $80K/year in 1099 income (about $60K profit). He was maxing his company 401K but wasn't sure what else he could do so here is...
HST Cut Won’t Revive BC, Ontario New Construction
What's Really Stopping Residential New Construction in BC & Ontario? And Why Playing With HST Wont Fix It. Don't get me wrong removing the HST for a year on New Construction homes is a good thing because every tax reduction is...
Bullish Confidence Awaits Tesla Breaking Its Resistance
Selling into resistance has been key now for a while. Bull confidence won't come until that changes. $TSLA 20sma https://t.co/m2rV81HCDQ
Mortgage Rates High, Market Frozen Despite Fed Cut Hopes
Mortgage rate: 6.43%. Mortgage applications: -10.5% in a week. The housing market isn't slow. It's frozen. Nobody's buying. Nobody's selling. The Fed's "one cut" forecast isn't saving anyone at the closing table. $XHB $TLT $SPY https://t.co/4lS8cSAOkb
Large‑Growth Stocks Pull S&P Down, Value Holds
Large growth having a heavy impact on the S&P 500 today. Index down just over -1% but only 57% of large stocks are negative right now. Large Growth down 2x, (-2.1%) the broad index while Large Value is off only...
Long‑term Market Favors Gains: Up Years Outnumber Down Years
Some say the stock market is rigged. If anything, you could argue it is rigged to go higher over the long run. Yes, down years happen, but big down years relative to big up years are quite skewed. You...
US 10‑Year Yield Climbs to Over 4.40%
Of note: Up 7 basis points so far today, the yield on the US 10-year government bond is currently trading above 4.40%. #economy #markets #bonds
SARB’s Short
𝗪𝗮𝗿, 𝗢𝗶𝗹, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 🇿🇦 The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) just mapped out two possible futures for South Africa's economy. 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟭: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 If the conflict ends within 2 months, oil averages just under $100/barrel, and the...
Agency Costs Silently Erode Your Investment Returns
Agency costs can quietly drain your portfolio. As Charlie Munger explains, both self-serving executives and poor decision-makers can hurt long-term returns. Learn smarter stock analysis and build wealth with better investing strategies. Most investors ignore this silent portfolio killer—and it’s costing...
Top Ten Nasdaq 100 Stocks Drive Half Market Performance
The top 10 names in the @Nasdaq 100 make up 50% of the weight but they've also been driving all the performance 📊 Dan & @GuyAdami look at fractional share investing & Big Tech market concentration on MRKT Call 📺 https://t.co/tORW9KfOxg
Venezuela's Oil Output Limited to 300k Bpd by 2026
My view in the @EpochTimes on Pres. Trump's move on Venezuelan oil: “VEN remains a wild card... its output gains will likely be modest [in 2026], ~300,000 barrels/day, due to deep structural damage in the soft & hard infrastructure of VEN’s...
Bear Flag Timing Pays Off as QQQ Slides
The $QQQ is down 1.5% and testing new lows I am, unfortunately, currently flying rn ✈️ I timed the bear flag well... https://t.co/2AsId5OHai
10‑Year
10-year yield was sub 4% at the start of the war. Now it's over 4.4%. Worst month for $TLT since December 2024 https://t.co/OmX97S6MQ1
Mag 7 Correction Boosts Near‑term Earnings Appeal
The Mag 7 has continued to be supported by strong earnings growth, and in the chart below one could make a compelling case that the M7 have corrected enough, as the price index has gone from hugging the earnings forecast...
Board's $400M Buyback Matches Six Years' Spend in 90 Days
From "Trying To Be Realistic" (03/09/26): "The Board approved a $400 million repurchase authorization in October 2025, which was completed in three months. The value of repurchase spend over this 90-day period was equal to the total over the previous...
Software Valuations Crash: Multiples Plummet, Reset Underway
Software still getting crushed today… and look at this: 52-week drawdowns + valuations: $NOW → 25x P/E $INTU → 18x $ADBE → 10x $CRM → 14x $FICO → 25x $UBER → 21x These were “expensive” not long ago. Now? The reset is real.