Premium Valuations Possible Even for Commodity Sellers
I wrote this article a couple years ago before resources went on a tear, but I still like to look at cyclical or hated industries through this lens. How does a business get a premium valuation when they sell a commodity? https://t.co/KU2CIcGUvA
EU Gas Buyers May Replicate 2022 Spending Surge
This is a key theme for EZ inflation/gas. The curve in gas suggests that EZ buyers hold their nerve, but supply is paramount. The longer it goes on, the higher is the risk that EU buyers will do what...
Hedge Fund Bets on Cotton As
One of our new Hedge Fund clients was explaining his Long Cotton position to me yest All the while a bunch of consensus ones are still hoping for their #Bag7 Longs to bounce https://t.co/yoASvyTUEY
Hedge Fund Star Bets Against Korea After Market Dip
Who's the latest brilliant Hedge Fund guy who shorted South Korean Stocks AFTER a correction? https://t.co/aP0iJRzIRj
Four Major Stocks Show Bearish Trend per Hedgeye
IMPACT @t1alpha All 4 of these widely bag-held stocks continue to signal Bearish TREND @Hedgeye = $LLY $NVDA $AVGO $META https://t.co/kg1UG6fV2x
Bob Brackett Returns: War in Iran Reshapes Global Gas Flows
NEW ODD LOTS: It’s the return of the legend Bob Brackett @tracyalloway and I talk to Bernstein’s top commodities researcher about war in Iran and how natural gas flows are being reshaped all around the world. https://t.co/DlSfweVsgl
Read Fed Moves Through Positioning, Not Surface Reaction
Great Gamma chart and Fed Day point by Captain Craig @t1alpha "In that context, any outsized reaction around the Fed should first be viewed through the lens of positioning first rather than taken at face value" https://t.co/cnuGZLnhYJ
High Yield Stocks Attempt Squeeze Despite Bearish Trend
HIGH YIELD: Stocks trying for Day3 of squeezage off Friday's oversold lows... But High Yield (bearish TREND in #Quad3) didn't really care yesterday Different market structure vs. the #MOAB in US Stocks https://t.co/b4jIP7TEiK
Silver Near Support, Oversold Yet Bullish for Juniors
Silver consolidating record run for 7 weeks now. Almost near uptrend support. Getting oversold. Selling volume drying up. 200 dma over $50 now which is great for the junior miners. $slv $gdxj https://t.co/kEtElzonWZ
Own AI Stocks, Not Bonds, Says Howard Marks
Oaktree's Howard Marks says investors are probably better off buying stock in AI-focused companies rather than lending them money. “If you’re taking fundamental business model risk, shouldn’t you get paid for it by being an owner rather than a fixed-income...
Credit Markets Tighten as Qualtrics Loan Stalls
While credit markets are open to many companies, they're starting to close for others. Qualtrics, which makes online survey tools, had to ice a $5.3 billion loan and bond deal due to lack of investor appetite. https://t.co/DE0BfMnHYT
Europe Swapped Russian Gas for LNG, Still Vulnerable
Europe's LNG imports have gone from 3% of gas supply in 1990 to nearly 50% today. We replaced Russian pipeline gas with LNG at record speed. But we replaced one dependency with another. That's why Europe is so exposed. Answer is transforming demand...
Germany's New Debt Fuels Handouts, Not Investment
Good Morning from Germany, where newly issued debt has so far not been used for investment, but rather to finance election giveaways & plug budget holes – once again proving the laws of political economy. Acc to Ifo, public borrowing...
Goldman Sees Possible US Export Bans, Targeting Refined Oil
Goldman > While not our base case, we would not rule out US export restrictions. If implemented, they appear more likely for refined products than for crude oil.
Sweden Beats California in Capital‑Friendly Wealth Building
“Sweden is more capital-friendly than California in almost every category that matters for building generational wealth”
Make Investing Non‑Negotiable with a Budget Map
A budget is not a prison. It is the map that shows your money exactly where to go before it decides to disappear on its own. And when your budget includes investing as a non-negotiable line item, everything changes. You need a system that tells...
SUNMED IPO Soars 17% Above Price, Expansion Funded
Sunway Healthcare Holdings Bhd (SUNMED, 5555) debuted strongly on Bursa Malaysia Main Market today. Opening price hit RM1.70 → 17% above IPO price of RM1.45. Price climbed fast to RM1.80–RM2.00 range in morning trade → market cap exceeded RM20 billion. Retail offering...
Heating Oil Prices Near $4, Spiking From Middle East Tensions
If you heat with oil you are exposed to sky-high heating oil prices. US heating oil futures are near $4 per gallon and prices have almost doubled since February, driven by escalating disruption linked to the war in Iran and...
Treasury Yields Test Support, Hinting at Recession Direction
US 30-Year Treasury Bond yields are testing key channel support levels—are we nearing an inflationary or deflationary recession? With the upcoming FED meeting and rising commodity prices, a breakdown here could dictate the market's next major move. Dive into the...
India’s FII Holdings Dwarfed by Three Chip Giants
FII holding in India: approx. US$ 750 billion FII holding in just Samsung Electronics, TSMC and Hynix: US$ 1.75 trillion Source: Nomura How much India has lost in past 2-3 yrs on a relative basis is crazy.
China’s Strong Start Hides Uneven Growth Amid External Risks
Chinese Economy’s Bright Start Masks Uneven Growth as External Risks Loom—Data released showed industrial production rebounded on surging exports https://t.co/ccsgwcicJL https://t.co/ccsgwcicJL
Japanese SaaS Stocks Are Undervalued Growth Gems
The bull case for Japanese software: - Revenues in yen so not hurt by JPY appreciation - SaaS penetration rate is 5-7 years behind the US - Growth is hard to find in Japan, but in SaaS - yes - Incremental margins in...
Equities Poised to Rebound as Oil Steadies, Yields Dip
While Equities have been able to bounce as WTI has shown a mild rollover (and this likely continues for 2-3 more days) along w/ US Dollar, Yields pulling back, the broader pattern should still allow for an eventual push back...
Middle East Conflict Fuels South African Petrol Shortage Fears
South Africa: Middle East conflict sparks fears of fuel rationing and petrol shortages in South Africa https://t.co/FvxkRqShtg
Optical Stocks Surge While NVDA Stalls, Watch Next Week
While many continue to sit as stocks like NVDA go through multiple months of consolidation, others like the Optical names like $CIEN continue to push sharply back to new highs along with many memory names @IBDinvestors @marketsurge This bifurcation vs....
China's Central Asian Influence Extends Beyond Extractive Industries
I'm afraid China's economic presence in Central Asia went way beyond oil, gas, and mining some time ago. If folks still think it's all just about extractive industries, they've missed quite a bit about the Chinese presence.
China Housing Prices Could Fall Another 10% by 2027
China's housing market has been undergoing a nasty correction since '22 Goldman Sachs: "If China follows the typical timeline of housing busts around the world, there might be another 10% drop in home prices ahead, and real prices may not...
China’s State Banks Shift Forward FX Book Post‑2010
The visible forward book of China, Inc (state banks plus PBOC) -- or at least changes in the book after 2010 FX settlement data via Bloomberg 1/ https://t.co/IgUc2aEtHT
Price Hikes and Solar Surge Slash Pakistan’s LNG Demand
Pakistan’s LNG demand has dropped due to two main factors: 💰 The government hiked gas/power prices, resulting in demand destruction ☀️ In response to high utility bills, consumers and businesses rapidly installed solar panels (highlighted in thread below)
Seventh Oil Shock Arrives, Yet Recession Uncertain
The first five oil shocks since 1970 triggered recessions. The sixth one in 2022 didn't. Now we're in the seventh spike. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/E0T0q5vh0c
AWS AI Boost Doubles Revenue Forecast, Stocks Oversold
AWS revenue projection doubled (17%CAGR) due to AI AI stocks are currently very oversold. $AMZN https://t.co/ldXbR8hi8J
Short‑term Leases Can Replace Buying for Young Families
People buy homes for 2 reasons: 1) To invest in what is (hopefully) an appreciating asset 2) So that they don't have to move. And this is particularly true for families, or people looking to start them. It's why the...
Fed Governors Finally Challenge Chair, Splitting Along Politics
A longstanding taboo around Fed governors dissenting against the chair has been broken. Recent fractures have fallen along political lines. On what that means for the institution—and for the next chair. https://t.co/7S1YacOpoW
Geopolitical Risk Spikes to 21st‑century Worst Levels
This measure of geopolitical risk just hit levels that put the current moment in the same league as the most dangerous moments of the 21st century. https://t.co/7ciy5RuN8b
Fed Rate Call Sets Direction for Stocks and Dollar
My latest on tomorrow FED rate decision and what to expect for stocks and the US dollar
Invested Money Isn't Enough—Action Drives Returns
A client told me something last month that I've been thinking about ever since. He said, "Ben, we put in the money. And then what? We just sit here and hope?" He wasn't angry. He was genuinely confused. Like there should be...
Peter Lynch’s 29% Returns Show Fundamentals Trump Timing
Did some research today to find new and interesting information about great investors: Peter Lynch average return from 1977-1990 grew 29.2% beating out the great Warren Buffett at 20% - both incredible longevity. What strikes me about Lynch:...
Investors Bet on Biofuels Amid Sky‑High Gas Prices
Call positioning continues across the full spectrum of Biofuel names w/ gasoline prices sky high and 45Z tax credits in focus ADM BG DAR FF GPRE ANDE Could see junky plays GEVO AMTX run as well
Oil at $150/Barrel Could Push Inflation to 6% Q2
PANTHEON MACRO: In a $150/barrel oil scenario, “we think inflation would peak in Q2 at about 6% ..” https://t.co/lFerTyCGCR
Clinical Growth Could Flip Earnings by 2028
New writeup (link in bio): WW still looks broken on the surface. Behavioral subs are falling fast. But Clinical is growing so quickly that the whole earnings power story may look very different 12–24 months from now. I break down why 2026...
Short‑term Rent Isn’t Market Rent—It's Hotel‑style Pricing
Lenders sometimes ask appraisers for short-term rent during the loan process, but that's totally different than market rent. Short-term rent is going to be much higher as it's basically hotel rent based on the daily rent instead of a tenant...
Gas Prices Likely Remain High Through 2027
Gas prices staying up into 2027? It’s becoming a distinct possibility. Thanks to retired Marine Lt Col @HalKempfer for taking the time to talk supply chain issues, energy security, and the new Great Powers competition. Link below.
Compounding Value: Small Gains Reinvested Build Wealth
"Long-duration businesses create value through incremental reinvestment." The biggest investing secret? Value compounds quietly over time. Long-duration businesses win because they reinvest small gains again and again. That’s how real wealth is built.
Gas Prices Surge While Food Inflation Still Lags
An update on a critical chart: Gasoline prices continue to climb, but attention should now shift to food prices, which have yet to follow. Expect policymakers to call it transitory again, even as resource prices — despite volatility — remain elevated by...
Crude Oil's Market Ripple Effects Discussed on Podcast
Plenty to talk about this week as @MrMBrown and I resume our weekly podcast. Amongst other things we'll be looking at crude oil's impact on markets which could well reverberate for some time #oilcrisis https://t.co/B6h8K0JLAj
Bearish Fear Peaks, Reversal Looms for AI Stocks
The "Magazine Cover" indicator has fired Positioning is bearish, extreme fear, VIX is in retreat... We are getting close to the reversal. The beaten down AI + infrastructure software stocks are coiled springs. $NDX $SPX https://t.co/AD4EpmfDLR
Align Incentives, Cut Annual Flat Costs by £1K
Same; we stopped the bleeding and now set the budget every year. Managed to get the annual charge down by about 1K for my two-bed flat. No detours; lifts, common parts utilities etc cost money, but if incentives are aligned,...
AWS Projected to Grow ~7% Annually for Decade
Amazon's AWS growth is expected to be ~7% over the next decade according to CEO. probably should get short... $AMZN
Nasdaq Accumulation Signals Growth Stocks Resilience Ahead
Nice to see an accumulation day for the Nasdaq Composite. I define it as an up day on higher volume than the previous day. In addition, there's VERY strong price action in many growth stocks beneath the surface. ARKK (a...
Tomorrow's FOMC Meeting: Most Critical Decision Yet
Tomorrow will be the most imporant FOMC meeting of our lives Until the next one