News Ignored Futures OI; Gold Up, Palladium Hits Low
News today did not lead to higher PM futures open interest (unless you count gold OI being 2.5k contracts off the bottom)... #gold 357k +2.5k #copper 228k +3k #silver 116k +0.6k #platinum 61k +1k #palladium 14.6k -0.6k new low
CAR Set for Wild 0DTE Trap Tomorrow
$CAR not letting up 0DTE tomorrow all they did was trap trap trap this week - going to be the craziest 0DTE day we've seen in quite some time lol
Iran, US Escalate Tensions Ahead of Ceasefire Talks
Both Tehran and Washington are upping the ante ahead of the ceasefire talks over the weekend. But raising the stakes increases the miscalculation risk: “We will definitely bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new stage,” Iranian...
Positive Breadth Amid Flat Volume Leaves Market Uncertain
Breadth is solidly positive (by a 9-5 margin) but upside volume and downside volume are dead even. "There's something happening here What it is ain't exactly clear" https://t.co/vYUbSQsVwb
Telus Slides 9% to 13‑year Low Levels
Telus $T $TU Canadian telecom still on the move and hitting levels first reached 13-years ago as the stock is -9.2%... getting to see the chart, almost feels like cheating to sidestep such mess, no? https://t.co/S4U5OCaTOh
Run Two Screens to Catch Dollar‑Mover Stocks
Building a momentum watchlist? You gotta run it twice. Most people don't, and that's why they miss the big ones. Screen 1: Full US universe. Top performers 3mo, 6mo, 1yr, YTD. That's where your % rockets live. Screen 2: Same exact screen...
Earnings Growth Drives Market Gains, Balancing Valuations
The forward earnings estimate has been growing at a robust 17% annual rate and the momentum has thus far not been affected by the headlines. This strength has beenenabling the cycle to become more balanced between valuation and earnings. As of...
Chart Signals Disney Buy Despite Personal Skepticism
$DIS sometimes I have to cover the name and buy because the chart says it is time. I am not a big fan of the company. I did like the chart. I don't own in my...
Mexican Startups Overtake Brazil in Q1 VC Funding
Mexican startups outperformed their Brazilian counterparts in the first quarter, raising a total of $404M compared to Brazil’s $240M. Historically, Brazil has been the powerhouse in Latin America for venture capital funding. But it’s not the first time in recent quarters...
Investors Bet Wrong AI Layer; Profits Flow Elsewhere
“The layer you’re investing in may not be where the profits end up.” On the latest @excessreturnpod, we sit down with GMO's Tom Hancock to discuss their excellent recent paper Hype vs. High Conviction. We cover: ☑️the 4-layer AI stack and where...
Emerging Markets Leapfrog Oil, Embrace Energy Tech
Emerging Markets are Leapfrogging Oil and Gas ...just like the Global South leapfrogged landline phones and rapidly adopted cellular at scale. With @KingsmillBond of ember_energy. #uspoli #cdnpoli https://markhamhislop.substack.com/p/emerging-market-are-leapfrogging
Fed's 2% Target Deemed Myth; No Near-Term Hikes
JPMorgan’s Bob Michele went on to say that the Fed’s 2% target is increasingly a “myth,” and that US central bankers are tacitly accepting a higher rate as acceptable. So even if inflation stays sticky, he doesn’t see rate hikes...
Rosenblatt Cuts Meta Price Target to $1,015, Keeps Buy
Rosenblatt today lowered its price target on Meta Platforms $META stock to $1,015 down from $1,144 while maintaining its Buy rating
VIX Breaks 2026 Trend, Signals End of Market Chop
The $VIX just broke below its 2026 uptrend line. Combined with positive gamma, this market may be exiting the chop. Time will tell.
Keybanc Cuts Meta Price Target to $760, Stays Overweight
Keybanc today lowered its price target on Meta Platforms $META stock to $760 down from $855 while maintaining its Overweight rating
S&P 500 Swings 4‑5% Weekly, P/E At
The S&P 500 index has continued to fluctuate in an elevated range (4-5% per week), as markets try to find their footing amid the conflicting headlines. The trailing P/E ratio is now 23.3x and the implied equity risk premium is...
Meta's Muse Could Boost Stock by $1 Trillion
If Open AI and Anthropic is worth $800 billion, then Meta's new Muse models should add $1 trillion to $META stock, given its vastly superior distribution with 3.5 billion users.
Messy Hormuz Reopening Fuels Shipowners' Profit Surge
The more "messy"/"inefficient" the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz is, the higher shipowners' profits are 🇮🇷🛢️🚢 @ed_fin on "Persian Gulf Traffic Jam" as tanker bull case: Apple🔊https://t.co/qUjYx8adg2 Spotify📽️https://t.co/07NUjj4n74 1/2 https://t.co/yWohqK1at9
Attacks Shut Down Key Saudi Energy Facilities, One Killed
🟥🟥🟥Official Source at the Ministry of Energy: Operational Activities Halted at Several Energy Facilities in the Kingdom due to Recent Attacks https://t.co/YhaVlatjkT Riyadh, April 9, 2026, SPA -- An official source at the Ministry of Energy stated that important energy facilities in...
Asset Correlation Breaks: Bullish on One, Bearish on Other
There's a MAJOR divergence in two assets that have been EXTREMELY correlated happening today that we will talk about on @ForwardGuidance and it makes me very bullish on one thing and very bearish on the other.....@qthomp @fejau_inc
Shorts on CIBR and SKYY Explode, Software Short Wins
Another great day on the Short Side of Software with our $CIBR and $SKYY Shorts imploding (see ETF Pro for ALL my Macro Shorts)
Core CPI Must Rescue Markets Amid 0.9% Crude Spike
CPI hedging dominating now after 30y auction. Crude driven headline expected to print at an eye-popping 0.9% so it will be up to core to save us
Earnings Shield Markets Amid Major Oil Shock History
The analog chart below shows the major oil events since the 1970’s. The green line (1990 Gulf War) remains the best-case scenario, namely a short war that produces a full roundtrip in crude oil. Even by 1990 standards, the stock market...
Brazilian Real Leads Global Gains, Heralding New LatAm Cycle
The Brazilian real is outperforming every major currency in the world year to date. I was told this could never happen — but here we are. Welcome to a new LatAm cycle, folks. Exciting times ahead for this region. https://t.co/tvtFhSgOxD https://t.co/6dbPKm7I3L
Budgeting Is Noticing, Not Restricting
A budget isn’t about restriction. It’s about noticing. What did you just spend money on… and did it feel like a good trade? This idea is from my new book, Your Money. Pick up a single copy here: https://t.co/2f6CoPIepZ Or if you’re ordering...
Prediction Markets Evolve: Hedging, Block‑Trades Shape Future
Last month I sat down with @luanalopeslara and @mansourtarek_ to ask the co-founders of @Kalshi what the future of prediction markets might look like. From hedging to block-trades, this space is still evolving and the conversation continues. Watch this space👀
S&P 500 Stocks Show Mixed Performance in Early Trade
This is how every stock in the S&P 500 has performed so far in today's early trading
KLIC Surges Toward Buy Point in Chip Rally
Kulicke And Soffa, IBD Stock Of The Day, Surges Toward Buy Point In Chip Gear Rally https://t.co/WVTYnRI270 $KLIC
China Secures Germany’s Premier Robotics Asset
How China Acquired Germany’s #Robotics Crown Jewel by @JacklouisP #AI #MachineLearning #ArtificialIntelligence #ML #Innovation https://t.co/DuFtEGfyDb
Oil Prices Near Double, WTI Hits $112, Brent $109
Crude oil finished the week at $112 (WTI) and $109 (Brent), making the current oil shock almost a double. https://t.co/7EKQWyQ7zM
S&P 500 Trails Most Assets, only Bitcoin Worse
With month-end and quarter-end behind us, the S&P 500 was down 4.3% YTD (as of March 31). Only Bitcoin and large cap growth have done worse, at least for the cohort of asset classes that I follow. On top were...
Oil at $115, Backwardation Rises Amid Strait Uncertainty
Crude oil is now trading at $115 (as of Sunday night) while the forward curve has gotten even more backwardated. It’s unclear to me whether the backwardation is a manifestation of optimism over the Strait re-opening or the mechanics of...
Markets Calm as Middle East Tensions Ease, Bull Persists
Stress levels in the financial markets have subsided a bit as the conflict in the Middle East enters its 5th week. Bonds and equities (and their vols) have moderated as the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is ticking up...
Europe Faces Fuel Shortage After Hormuz Shipment Ends
So tomorrow Europe gets its last shipment of oil from the Strait of Hormuz. Based on that timing, if the Strait were to open tomorrow Europe's next oil shipment would come at the end of May. Reports are circulating that...
AI Won’t Crush Software Firms; Incumbents Will Thrive
Claude isn't going to destroy all software businesses. Incumbents in infrastructure software and cybersecurity will benefit from AI. They have deep pockets, enterprise customer relationships and are too deeply integrated. The market appears to be getting too pessimistic.
AXON Appears Attractive at 350‑355 With 30% EPS Growth Potential
In my opinion, $AXON is starting to look attractive for the first time in a long time... down -60% from the highs... still a little too expensive however there's a decent chance this company will compound EPS at a 30%...
Thailand's 12‑Month Deflation Linked to Low Money Supply
Thailand's March CPI is -0.08%/yr. That's the 12th consecutive month in DEFLATION. In the past 3 years, its money supply has grown BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 5.4-7.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting a 1-3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY...
Morgan Properties Surges to #2, Greystar Holds Top Spot
The 2026 NMHC Top 50 rankings are out. Owners: Morgan Properties leapfrogs MAA into No. 2 spot, adding 14k units to reach 110k. Greystar remains No. 1, but was net seller last year. https://t.co/6UNTlK2tUF
AMD Needs Slight Push to Close Key ER Gap
$AMD simple daily chart needs a small push over todays high to close the ER gap 237.04 and confirms the gap close 242.11 https://t.co/3pylFESqOQ
US ETF AUM Could Triple
Citi: US ETF AUM may reach $25T by 2030 from $10.4T. Drivers: active ETFs, innovation, easier regs. Risks: flow reversals, market stress. Trade: raise exposure to selective active ETFs. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Ares Backs $1.7B Sunbelt Retail REIT Push
Latest bet that #CRE especially in the #Sunbelt is undervalued belongs to #Ares, w/is teeing up #Whitestone #REIT for $1.7B+taking 5MSF of open-air #retail in places like #Phoenix #Austin #DFW #Houston #SanAntonio. #realestate #PE #BofA #WallSt https://t.co/iaUBXCrFQe
EU Warns as Nations Grapple with Soaring Energy Costs
EU sounds the warning bell as countries face soaring energy prices https://t.co/c7S4lxI7D8 via @suzannelynch1 https://t.co/rMfXvLzmAu
Software Surge Tests IGV’s 2‑Year Support Level
Software coming in hot, testing a 2+ year support cliff on the sector $IGV ETF. Grab your popcorn. https://t.co/41BheMymid
US Leverage Forces Israel to End Lebanon War Quickly
The US has major leverage over Israel, so there's no way war in Lebanon continues if it prevents a ceasefire with Iran and a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This war is a big political liability for Republicans and...
LITE Showcases Flawless Failed Follow‑through Setup
$LITE absolutely perfect failed follow through set up with one re-test of key line. Doesn't get much cleaner than that. Glad I watched the entire thing 🙏 https://t.co/x11rVqEqle
Middle East War Headlines Instantly Dent Oil and Gilt Markets
Markets remain incredibly sensitive to Middle East War headlines. Case in point: the latest Israel-Lebanon headlinea erased 4 percentage points of today’s oil price gains (CNBC chart below). Even more significantly, they took 8 basis points off the 10-year UK gilt...
Nike at $43: Buy Signal After Fire‑Sale
Full Deep Dive Thesis - Is #NKE a BUY now at $43? I have been receiving DMs. Nike’s stock has been hammered. The brand everyone thought was untouchable… now trading at fire-sale levels. Even Tim Cook just loaded up. So the question everyone’s asking:...
AI's Second Inning Promises Explosive Growth, Not a Bubble
Are we in an AI bubble? Andy Jassy gave his take in the $AMZN annual shareholder letter: “I’ve followed the public debate on whether this technology is over-hyped, whether we’re in ‘a bubble,’ and if the margins and ROIC will be...
Israel-Lebanon Talks Boost Treasury Gains, Optimism Rises
Another does of optimism after Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon. USTs reversed earlier losses and surged higher with long-end lagging before 30y auction. WIs 4.88
Accountant Launches AI Tax Startup, Secures $12M Seed
In 2023, Dave Haase was a CPA who had been running his own firm in the San Francisco Bay Area for several years when he saw a live demo of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Upon seeing the AI agent successfully file a...