Oil Price Gap Sparks Sarcastic Optimism for China
Oil is $100 in the U.S. and $150 in Asia. I’m looking forward to the all the reports by the usual suspects this weekend explaining how this is a positive development for China.
Investors Skeptical After HDFC Chairman’s Sudden Resignation
Hours after the startling resignation of HDFC Bank’s chairman, executives hastily arranged a call to assure investors that all was well, and there was nothing material in Atanu Chakraborty’s abrupt departure. Investors weren’t buying it. https://t.co/aeAiEMP7A8 @ranjanir_
Trade only After Opening Range Breakout with Momentum
Most traders force trades inside the opening range. When price stays within the range, the market is choppy, low momentum, and directionless. This is where traders get chopped up and overtrade. If there’s no break of structure or clean breakout from the opening...
Oil Volatility, Fed Caution Cloud Asian Markets
Asia mixed; oil volatility and Fed caution weigh, China holds LPR. Oil spike raises inflation/Strait-of-Hormuz supply risk; Alibaba weakens sentiment. Trade: hedge Asian equities with oil puts. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Saudi Oil Price Models Predict Upcoming Market Shift
Call the headline “attention grabbing” if you must, but this is an excellent look into what those modeling oil prices in Saudi Arabia see happening Thanks @summer_said #oott #oil #iran https://t.co/7AGgTmaVXb
Brent Slides to $105 as Hormuz Remains Shut
Brent cools down to $105 early Friday. The war has entered its 21st day, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed. Have some in the market drunk the kool-aid again?
Voyah Slides 13% on Hong Kong Debut without Fundraising
Voyah Automobile Technology Co., the luxury electric vehicles arm of Dongfeng Motor Group, fell 13% in its trading debut in Hong Kong after a listing that didn’t involve selling new shares or raising funds. https://t.co/uR0zxn3SGk
Even Top Managers Struggle to Sell Losers
During the conversation today with Lee Freeman-Shor and Clare Flynn Levy who have analyzed the trade data of many of the best fund managers in the world - I asked what decision type do successful managers have the most issues...
Rising Energy Prices Heighten Recession Risks in Asia
With global energy prices going vertical, the next metrics to watch are recession probabilities of net energy importers - particularly in South and Southeast Asia https://t.co/ehwgNBNqH4
New Home Prices Fall, Inventory Peaks Since 2009
Prices of New Single-Family Homes Drop Further, Inventory of Completed New Homes for Sale Highest since 2009. Hoping for lower mortgage rates that may not come https://t.co/xfMYbwdtVK https://t.co/ImauhfwDWA
Gold's Steepest Weekly Drop in Six Years Explained
Gold prices are suffering their worst week in six years. What's driving the crash, and where is this market going next? #gold #oilprice #inflation #fed #markets #macro #trading https://t.co/0hNC9B49Vg
ADU Preemption Law Drives 100,000 New Homes.
California's ADU preemption law—of the sort Michigan is considering this year—has directly led to the construction of over 100,000 housing units that would have been illegal prior to 2017. https://t.co/dtgk8BfnNT
Prioritize Retirement Savings over Apartment Down Payment
You’re 32, Software Engineer, NYC. $250k income. $350k retirement $250k brokerage. Do you max retirement/brokerage accounts or focus on saving for a $1M apartment down payment?
AUM Spike Fueled by Speculative Leveraged Stock Bets
Half hearted look at some cycle indicators, partly bc everyone is so zoomed in, partly bc bulls finally dropped. I'd just add that Long AUM spike was from everyone jumping into those garbage 1X and 2X quantum type single stock...
Investors Swap Gold for Oil Amid Conflict
Good morning Asia, We are at the stage of the conflict where people are selling their gold (most valuable hard asset and a hedge for bad times) to buy oil. Got oil, gas, and may I say coal? https://t.co/fsqt6mevX1
Gold Dip Set up by Rising Oil, Rates, and Dollar
Gold down wasn’t a surprise — it was the setup. 🥇📉 📈 Oil up 📈 Rates up 💵 Dollar up = short-term pressure on gold We sold SOME into the breakdown… Now buying it back into panic. 😈 Process > opinions.
U.S. Home Prices Edge Up Slightly, Still 43% Above 2020
U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, rose +0.1% month-over-month between January 2026 and February 2026. Year-over-year: +0.4% Since the 2022 peak: +1.6% Since March 2020: +43.2% Table via @ResidentialClub https://t.co/LC4jle3nVp
Netanyahu Pledges No More Iranian Oil Strikes, Hopes Quicker Peace
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has joined Trump in jawboning the energy market. In a press conference, he said that Israel won't attack anymore oil and gas targets in Iran, and also indicated that the war would be over faster...
AMC Expects Earnings Rise Despite Bleak Macro Backdrop
I know from my own losses and in reading your comments on X/Twitter how distraught many of you are with falling share prices. In looking at the likely 2026 industry-wide Box Office, we still expect it to grow materially over...
Sacramento Home Prices Down About 2% Year‑over‑year.
Let's look to multiple price metrics to try to understand the market. Here are various sources I watch every month. I think we can generally say prices are down about 2% from one year ago in the Sacramento region. Look...
Volatile Market? Tune In Tomorrow 6:10am ET
Good timing with all this volatility for a market update with the @SquawkCNBC tomorrow 6:10am ET please tune in #fairleadstrategies
Dollar Near 100; Break Higher Tightens Liquidity
Dollar pressing range highs just below round 100. Break higher and liquidity tightens. Reject and risk can breathe a bit. $DXY https://t.co/ZvkycsmahB
Iran War’s Energy Shock Threatens Canada’s Future
Had the opportunity to speak alongside @ExnerPirot and Bob Yawger of Mizuho about the Iran War, the largest energy supply shock in history, and what it all means for Canada on @therundowntvo. Airs tonight on TVO at 8pm ET. https://t.co/XJgEE8PqMA
PL Shows Serial Gapper Pattern with Climbing Volume
$PL Weekly View of the model book move This is a "serial gapper". Note the increasing average volume https://t.co/EBBHr8HVJK
Oil Prices Swing Amid Middle East Supply Uncertainty
It’s been another rollercoaster day in the oil market with both benchmarks trading in a wide range (CNBC charts below). Between the remarks from officials in Washington DC and those out of Israel — both following the attacks on energy infrastructure...
UK 10‑Year Gilt Near 2022 High as Yields Rise
At the back of the yield curve, yields are moving higher across the board, and the UK 10-year GILT yield is testing the cycle highs from 2022. UK and US yields generally move in similar fashion, so this is something...
Vol Skew Interpreted as Implied PDFs Across Expiries
Here's a question for options nerds Ignoring if it's "right" or "wrong" whether it's caused by paper flow or some expectations. Is baseline assumption in modern option thinking that each expiries vol skew represents an implied PDF and the vol...
PL Jumps Post‑market on Volume Half of Daily Average
$PL Gapping up post market. Post Market Volume is over 50% an average day's vol
Closed Hormuz Threatens $220 Oil, Near Recession
OUT NOW - how @Rory_Johnston sees it: Unless the Strait of Hormuz opens soon, $220 oil and a recession is "almost guaranteed." $300+ oil & Global Depression are possible. Apple🔊 https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️ https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf 1/3 https://t.co/gvV2pR4qXu
Super‑nonlinear Flexibility Lets You Avoid Rapid Snap‑backs
yep super nonlinear which gives you flexibility to stop worrying about a rapid snap back (ie, you can be short european cyclicals)
Silver's Historic Selloff Defies Strong Fundamentals
The selloff in silver over the past 15 days has been one of the most extreme moves we’ve seen in history. Only two other episodes are comparable: One marked a major peak, the other a major bottom. Personally, I have never seen a...
High‑Yield Spreads Break Out of Historic Range
The chart below shows that high yield spreads appear to have broken out of its longstanding range. https://t.co/XDtyd2lmpz
Russell 2000 Reaches 2024 Highs; Bulls Must Hold
Russell 2000 back at the 2024 highs. Bulls need this to hold. Lose it and there’s 7 to 8 percent lower in play. $RUT $IWM https://t.co/DDXQ9EAN6x
Quadruple Witching Ahead; Options Hedging Fuels Today's Volatility
just a reminder that tomorrow is "quadruple witching" volatility today may in part be attributed to the hedging of options traders
One-Third of Oil Supply at Risk Drives $150 Forecast
Oil could hit $150 a barrel. Not because of speculation. Because one-third of the world's oil supply is now at risk, and there is no substitute for oil in global production. None. Here is what mainstream economists are missing:
Watch Insider Trades to Gauge Company Conviction
We use a lot of fundamental metrics at TLI to determine the true value of a company. That being said another thing to look at is insider buys and sells. They are the ones that know the operations of the...
R2k Rebounds >0.7% Despite 1.
R2k was down 1.4%, yet finished up more than 0.7%. Interesting it happened near the late '24 peak and the 40-week MA. https://t.co/HJ6HMSKM0f
SPX Below 200‑Day MA Yet Bullish on Cycle Signals
$SPX - Closed below the 200 day MA which is a red flag but I'm still bullish for 3 reasons: 1. We are 79 trading days from the November low which is equal to the duration of the last 16 week...
Qatar's Gas Strike Halts 30% of Global Nitrogen Fertilizer
The real problem is nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are, as a rule, derived from oil-based naphtha or natural gas. Currently, Qatar takes natural gas produced at its South Pars gas field, which was recently struck by Iran, to make ammonia and...
PTX Metals Finds Cheap Copper‑Platinum, Drilling at W2
PTX Metals $PTX.V $PANXF Someone got some nice cheapies today and price is threatening to make a hammer. Drills turning at W2. Over $35M spent by Inco and Aurora ... over 2.5B lbs Cu Equivalent including 2M oz...
Rate‑cut Hopes Fade as Credit Spreads Widen Dramatically
The heatmap below shows that expectations of further rate cuts have all but vanished. Meanwhile, stress in the credit markets continues to mount with both investment grade and high yield spreads making new wides, and the private credit sensitive equities...
SNDK and WDC Nudge Higher, Hold Your Positions
$SNDK and $WDC inched up let it ride stops. $WDC still own a slice of trade shares
January Home Sales Slip; Watch Under‑Construction Trend
New home sales and prices stumble in January. But my eyes are on that Under Construction line... https://t.co/ba6EOBkX36
Netflix Gap & 21‑Day MA Backtest Shows Continued Hold
$NFLX back test of the gap and 21ma. See what tomorrow brings. Still own let it rides. https://t.co/z4uC0tlksb
Disgraced Exec's Relentless Optimism on Soaring Oil Prices
Love someone as much as disgraced oil executive Scott Sheffield loves musing about how oil prices will stay high. https://t.co/FvV8HROEj1 https://t.co/yzPdBxjHjy
Assessing Managers, AI Moats, and the New MacBook Neo
🆓 Thursday links: assessing manager performance, how AI impacts company moats, and the case for a new MacBook Neo. https://t.co/duwiEpYK9L chart: https://t.co/gq6jLYoEZI https://t.co/VnZShWu1PC
Critical Technical Levels Signal Do-or-Die
$VXUS holding 76 overshoot of 20sma. Same look as $QQQ rallying into resistance, $NVDA holding 200sma. This is a do or die level for a lot of stuff we are watching https://t.co/ppXrYUZW6g
Follow McGough: Short on Green, Long on Red
Especially in a #Quad3 Bearish $SPY TREND, if you're going to buy Longs on red, you should be re-loading on Core Shorts on green... Coaching Notes: I'll almost always go back to McGough @HedgeyeRetail in a market like this His fundamental research...
Market Signals No Near-Term Rate Cuts, Slightly Higher Policy Outlook
Also in today's newsletter. Per the WIRP function on the terminal, not only are imminent rate cuts off the table, the market-implied policy path is actually *slightly* higher over the rest of the year now. https://t.co/FRganNTPH0
Yen Surges as Dollar Falls, Stay Cautious
GUESS WHAT'S NEW TODAY... Yen is spiking higher as USD sells off - that is my MONEY GOES HOME™️ in full view 😭 The market bounce 'looks' like put monetization on dollar dump, BUT don't count your right tail chickens before they...