Midterm-Year S&P Drops Average 18%, Rebounds Afterward
Going back to 1926, the S&P 500 has seen an average drawdown of 18.2% in the 12 months before midterm elections. Going back 60 years, the smallest drawdown has been 7.4% while the largest was 41.8% . After the midterms, everything is fine. https://t.co/bwFR1VecXI
Trump’s Hormuz Hint Sparks Overnight Futures Volatility
Coming up on @TheStreetPro Strategic Ambiguity or Absence of A Strategy? * You can't make up what happened last night in futures trading * A confusing statement by the Administration on abandoning the strategy of taking the Strait of Hurmuz makes little...
Chinese Firms Shift to Vietnam, yet Overall Impact Remains Modest
This is a very interesting piece on Chinese companies moving production to Vietnam. In some sense it's happening at major scale. But also in some other sense, it's very minor, with very little of the TVA leaving China. https://t.co/ZixLeXz4nC https://t.co/BnujaABZ5M
Geopolitical Strikes Push Global Gas Prices Higher
Gas at the pump just hit $4/gallon. US stepped up attacks on Iran hitting missile depots. Unclear if this will lead to more escalation or signals a peak. Ukraine hit Russian oil production facilities almost 1000km from its border which will...
Implied Stock Moves for Today's Earnings Releases
This is the implied move for the stocks of today's reporting companies: $FDS $BITF $MKC $TE $SNX $PVLA $CHA $NKE $PVH $PLAY $NCNO $SIDU $BTBT $RH $KULR $PROP https://t.co/Oj6oeogePb
US Gas Futures Drop Below $3, Boosting Clean Generation
U.S. GAS FUTURESprices for the front-month have slipped well below $3 per million British thermal units to encourage more gas-fired generation and reduce coal combustion. Inflation-adjusted front-month futures have averaged just $3.05 so far in March (21st percentile for all...
Vietnam LNG Project Pivots to Renewables Amid Price Surge
LNG DEMAND DESTRUCTION ALERT 🇻🇳🚨 A proposed Vietnam LNG power project is asking the government to switch to a renewables+battery plant, citing surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict Vietnam was expected to be a high-growth LNG importer https://t.co/ac6gBNmCDr
Great Investors Thrive on Opposing Strategies
New Article - Find Your Swing Warren Buffett invests his way while Walter Schloss did it another way. Carl Ichan does it his way while Peter Lynch did it another way. David Tepper does it his way while Marc Andreessen does...
Build Wealth Early, Choose Freedom in Your 40s
Normalize building assets aggressively in your 20s and 30s to make work optional in your 40s.
Munger's Inversion: Avoid Stupidity, Achieve Success
Charlie Munger’s 5 ‘Inversion’ Secrets: Why Avoiding Stupidity Is Easier Than Seeking Brilliance For Most People https://t.co/8jCBh7vmM7
Iran Sets Hormuz Toll, Bans US, Israeli Vessels
Iran’s parliament approved a formal toll and access regime for the Strait of Hormuz but bars vessels linked to the US, Israel and countries that have imposed unilateral sanctions on Iran from passage. https://t.co/c28zaLYYtE
KOSPI Slides Into MOAB Crash Mode, Down 4.3%
Dr. KOSPI down another -4.3% and moving into #MOAB Crash Mode (-19.8% from Cycle Peak) https://t.co/nYUnVFszn9
Eurozone Inflation Surprise: Core Goods and Services Fall
🇪🇺 Euro area HICP flash estimate came in below expectations, with both core goods (-23bp) and services inflation (-13bp) down in March. Early days, focus will be any signs of second-round effects, etc etc. https://t.co/AaktjkVaKZ
Nikkei Slides 13% in a Month, Signaling Slowdown
JAPAN: nice job getting out of this market with the Nikkei down -13.2% in the last month = #Quad3 Slowing https://t.co/ckYlpWSopM
FPIs Smash Record with ₹111,000 Cr March Sell
FPIs sell a record 111,000 cr. in March 2026. That's the highest ever in a single month, eclipsing the Oct 2024 94,000 cr. or so then. https://t.co/FOfZQAttkq
March Market Turmoil: Dollar Rises,
In March: - US dollar set for best month since 2024, bond yields poised for largest monthly rise since 2024 - S&P poised for biggest monthly drop since 2022 -Brent crude set for its biggest ever monthly gain - Average US gas prices are...
Avoided Major Risk: #RussVol Breakout Into F‑Bucket
The mainline of risk to have avoided was this #RussVol Breakout into the F-Bucket https://t.co/bOeSGKPost
Russell IWM Poised for Bounce After 11.2% Q3 Drop
Post an -11.2% #Quad3 Drawdown, let's see how much they can bounce the Russell $IWM this morning
HFG Shifts to Meat, Cuts Debt, Holds Dividend
#HFG looks as expected. Debt down a bit which is good. Focus on meat now. Committed to progressive Dividend policy. Looks like seafood/veg might get sold off.
ShareScope Lifts RPI Forward P/E Amid 26% Surge
ShareScope has fwd p/e 30 RISING to 35.8 for #RPI , before 26% jump today. Note, the underlying Forecasts here must be way out. I'm very happy holding. :-)
RPI Beats EBITDA Forecast, Sustains Momentum Into FY2026
#RPI "EBITDA growth ahead of expectations". "Strong momentum carried into FY 2026". Successfully navigated rising DRAM costs (this was a big worry at last update).
Zimbabwe's Central Bank Halts M2 Data Since 2025
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe hasn't officially released M2 Money Supply data since December 2025. ZIM = A MASTERCLASS IN POOR ECONOMIC DATA. https://t.co/19E41X3pxN
Gold ETFs Face Fourth Straight Week of $4bn Outflows
"It's now four consecutive weeks of outflows for gold ETFs - they saw net outflows of US$4bn (~34 tonnes) last week. That's the fourth consecutive weeks of outflows. All regions saw losses, lead by Asia and North America." -Krishan Gopaul, World...
European Gas Prices Dip, Still 75% Above Pre‑War
The European benchmark natural gas price (TTF) is today **lower** than four weeks ago. Yup: Lower. (And yes, TTF prices are still up >75% from pre-war levels, but around the same level as they were in Jan-Feb 2025)
US Gas Prices Top $4 Gallon, First Since 2022
CHART OF THE DAY: The US gasoline national average retail price has risen above $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, per the @AAA_Travel. It's the kind of price level that typically has triggered political alarms inside the...
Gas Price Surge Threatens UK Cucumber, Tomato Supply
UK growers warn of cucumber and tomato shortages as gas prices surge https://t.co/5zu3EIyUuM via @ft
One Investment Offers Bond Safety and Stock Growth
What if one single investment could give you the safety of bonds and the growth of stocks at the same time? That is exactly what a BALANCED MUTUAL FUND does. A Balanced Mutual Fund is the perfect next step after your money...
Don’t Miss AI’s Long‑Term Growth Amid Market Pullback
Some investors are pulling back from AI stocks. After a strong run, concerns around valuations and heavy spending are driving rotation into other sectors. But stepping away too early could mean missing the next phase of growth. AI is not a short-term...
UK Mortgage Approvals Climbed Before War‑driven Rate Spike
UK mortgage approvals rose before the war triggered a rates surge https://t.co/sRgK0HpypM via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/o5w32DYwZ5
Why the Market Still Isn’t Bottoming Despite Covid Discount
We are sending a very long ‘Kya Lagta Hai’ newsletter to our smallcase and PMS subscribers today. We discuss just one aspect today & that is: ‘Why is our market not bottoming out?’ If we could discount Covid in weeks, why is...
Managed Money's Oil Options Net Long 50× Average
Goldman Sachs on the oil options market: “… The rally has spread beyond the spot crude market, with net long options managed money positioning 50 times higher than its 10-year average as investors bought options with strikes as high as $450...
Travel Cuts Needed for Poor, Middle Class; Ibiza Remains Expensive
Correction; poor and middle class people should cut back on travel. Will be lovely, albeit expensive, on the Ibiza beaches this summer, if you can get there.
Fragmented Accounts Hide True Equity Exposure, Causing Misallocation
$3.8M spread across six accounts. He thought he was 40% equities. He was actually 85%. He called me because something felt off. Turns out, he'd never seen all his money in one place before.
Mixed Inflation Trends Worldwide; India Trims Deficit, Growth Accelerates
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.32% for second session, as Powell noted long-term inflation expectations appear in check. ⦿ RBA minutes: Oil near USD 100/barrel could raise headline CPI to 5% in June quarter, with inflation...
Asia's Coal Prices Surge as Gas Supply Tightens
Asia's coal benchmark is at a 17-month high as Middle East conflict chokes gas supplies 🪨⚠️ Australian Newcastle coal futures for April hit $144.25/ton on Monday (the March contract expired Friday at $135.60) Asian countries are expanding use of coal to cut...
Bearish on SPX, Awaiting 5‑7% Pullback Before Selling
SPX ( US500 ) : I remain bearish but as I said for Gold ; due to no new G.P escalation over the weekend , due to EOM & EOQ flows & due to extreme bearish positioning / fear , I am...
China Unlikely to Share Real Food or Energy Aid
"China may offer some ceremonial assistance, but it's highly unlikely, if not wholly improbable, that it will share any substantive amount of its food, energy, or other reserves with other countries," Eric Olander, co-founder, China-Global South Project.
Iran Attacks Kuwaiti Oil Tanker in Dubai Port
Iran has hit a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker in the anchorage area of Dubai’s port, damaging the hull and starting a fire on board, state-run Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said https://t.co/z0pPgEwdwx
Record-Low Insider Selling Signals Buying Opportunity
- CNN Greed & Fear ratio 9/100 - Asia insider selling/buying ratio has reached a record low of 0.16 (!) according to Smart Insider - Trump is declaring that he wants to end the war - Bill Ackman (whose track record on market...
India Shifts Fertilizer Imports to Russia, Undermining Sanctions
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India is one of the largest importers of fertilizers sourced in the Gulf. Now, India has pivoted towards Russia. It is locking in long-term deals, to cut its reliance from the Gulf. IT’S A SIGN THAT THE ILL-CONCEIVED SANCTIONS REGIME IS STARTING...
Nine India‑bound Energy Ships Stuck at Hormuz
🇮🇳India: 9 India-bound energy vessels — carrying crude oil, LNG, and LPG — remain stranded at or near the Strait of Hormuz, unable to transit https://t.co/IzlRQxYqGH
China PMIs Remain Resilient, Non‑Manufacturing Returns to Growth
China PMIs Signal Resilience as Mideast War Raises Uncertainty—Nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers both service and construction activity, also bounced back to growth territory https://t.co/JJM08eJIFF https://t.co/JJM08eJIFF
India Tops China in Population, China Still Richer per Capita
India recently pulled ahead of China in population, surpassing 1.4 BILLION people. But, when it comes to income per person, China continues to outpace India. https://t.co/eKcw6L1crT
Central Banks, Not Treasuries, Curb Debt Monetization
Indeed no Treasury has ever said "stop monetizing debt, that's inflationary." It is the independent central bank's job to push back on debt monetization.
Coal and Gas Misreporting Demands Urgent Safeguard Reset
Industry pays while coal and gas “cook the books:” Modelling reveals urgent need for Safeguard reset #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/RTGGCweptA https://t.co/i7sUJmUIt0
China’s Demand Has Stalled, Not Driven Global Growth
I am a big fan of Chartbook and the collected works of Tooze -- but there is no way to look at China over the last 6 years and conclude that it has been a source of demand for the...
Analyst Predicted TWI's S&P600 Removal—Now Confirmed
Teammember Anjana Amasuriya who does S&P500/400/600 predictions (among other things) earlier wrote an update saying he expected TWI to get the boot from SP600 when the Versigent spinoff came. Last night it was announced as such. https://t.co/USzrxfAXkE
Coupon Supply vs GDP Reveals Misleading Percentage Metrics
not a big fan of doing percentage shares of the outstanding when the outstanding is way up -- here is a chart of coupon supply as a stock normalized v GDP 1/2 https://t.co/yTbJuALpQ8
Japanese Cross‑shareholdings Shield Incumbents, Hurt Shareholders
Shareholders are supreme under Japanese corporate law, but shareholders' economic interests are not. What is the distinction? Japan is (in)famous for its webs of cross-shareholdings. Suppliers, customers, financial institutions own shares in each other, and always support incumbent management with their...
Approaching Market Capitulation; Relief Rally Likely Soon
Stock prices are thrashing around from one headline to another but we are getting very close to capitulation. Support just few % points below current level, we should at least get a relief rally from there. Growth stocks are washed...