Iran Conflict Could Halt Grain Surplus Recovery
Commodity Price Pumps and Iran vs. Russia's Ukraine Invasion - The US exports about 25% of its grain production, and prices have been declining on the back of the 2022 spikes, which incentivized more supply -- notably from Brazil. Russia's invasion of Ukraine buoyed producer profits in 2022-24, fueling surpluses. Typically it takes a low-price cure to shut off the excesses. Will the Iran war change that? Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/cyWWdIO5hN {BI COMD} #corn #soybeans #wheat @markets
Hormuz Closure Threatens India's Energy Supply
A 33 km waterway which is 3000 km away from you can decide how much you must pay for petrol, cylinder etc. A 33 km waterway between Iran–Oman called the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global crude oil passes through this route,...
Proposed Bill Could Halt Rental Construction, Raise Rents
Are elected officials about to pass the "Rental Inflation bill?" The requirement to sell future Build-to-Rent homes to homeowners within 7 years will effectively stop the construction of rental homes, decreasing new supply and thus increasing rents. https://t.co/SEU7Kc03c3
Prolonged Hikes Risk Pushing Economy Into Recession
put it this way, if this situation last long enough for central banks to hike, they'll end up hiking into a recession
Pre‑emptive Oil Purchases Could Offset Iran Bombing Price Spike
I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of...
Markets Price Rate Hikes as Central Banks Stay Hawkish
On central banks: Judging from the shift in market probabilities of interest rate actions, the markets now believe that single-mandate central banks (that is, price stability), such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are in no mood...
Discussing How to Bring Oil Below $100
I’ll be coming up on @BloombergTV in a few to discuss zooming #oil prices with @lisaabramowicz1 & @FerroTV Can anything be done to bring oil under $100 in the foreseeable future? @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #Iran https://t.co/hJJBdEoPvU
Vanguard ETFs Net $7B Inflow as Others Lose $5B
Flows were def risk-off-ish last week, which caused net number to slow drastically, led by the trading crowd faves $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM, $HYG. The Vanguardians however didn't blink. Get this: Vanguard ETFs took in $7b last week, the rest of...
Simple Technical Trade Plans for SPX and Gold
Following the YouTube analysis , here are my simple technical trade plans on SPX & Gold (as of now)
Back-to-Back Quad3s Signal High US Equity Volatility
In today's Early Look: "Flying F-Quad3s" We’re now in what we affectionately call the F-Bucket of US Equity Volatility with an updated Quarterly Nowcast for back-to-back #Quad3s in Q2 and Q3 of 2026 What do you do with that? You fly these...
Recurring Collapse Patterns Reveal True Market Drivers
3 patterns that repeat every single time a growth stock collapses, and Tesla, Bitcoin and Palantir are all showing them right now. The Efficient Markets Hypothesis tells you the market gets the pricing right. I have spent decades showing why that...
From 57% Plunge to 400% Gain in 11 Years
17 years ago today the S&P 500 bottomed after losing nearly 57%. That started an 11 year long bull market that gained more than 400%. https://t.co/yorh6ENKeo
U.S. Becomes Net Energy Exporter, Yet Oil‑Price Sensitive
One of my higher conviction views: the US is now a net energy exporter (LNG more than oil) but it is best understood as an oil importer that is uniquely sensitive to oil price swings. 1/
Stay Calm: Regular Investing Beats Market Volatility
Been on bbcnews explaining why financial markets are going haywire due to a spike in energy prices. If you have a pension or other investments don’t panic, keep calm and carry on as bouts of market volatility are usual for...
Brent Surge Drives Spike in VIX Correlation
BIG OIL MOVES = FUEL FOR HIGHER CORRELATIONS Front-month Brent up ~55% over the past month. VIX contingent on Brent front-month futures +/- 50% in 1M: Median: 33.9 Average: 44.4 Max: 76.5 Min: 27.6 Current: 32.2
German Gas Prices Surge to €60/MWh, Sixfold US Cost
Good Morning from Germany, where spot gas prices have surged to above €60 per megawatt hour. That makes natural gas roughly 6 times more expensive here than in the US. https://t.co/4kxjaKHMGh
Save 1‑3% of Home Value Yearly for Repairs
If your roof needs a $45,000 repair 20 years from now, that means you should be saving $2,250/year, or $187.50/month Do you do this? Almost nobody does A shortcut: Save 1%-3% of the price of the house -- PER YEAR -- for...
Saudi Cuts Oil Output; Shipping Bottleneck, Not Supply
*SAUDI ARABIA STARTS OIL OUTPUT CUTS AS STORAGE FILLS UP We do not have a lack of supply of oil. We have a lack of supply of shipping
China Approves $4 Gas Price Hike Nationwide
China gives the all-clear for retail gas and diesel prices to rise in its regular price review. State media said it's likely to mean an additional ~RMB25 / US$4 to fill a tank https://t.co/x9kKlWXOn3
G7 Reserve Coordination Eases Market Shock, Dollar Firm
Reports G7 will discuss coordinated release of strategic reserves is helping to stem the worst of the markets' reaction to the weekend developments. Still, USD is mostly firmer, rates higher, and equities lower. See https://t.co/4OVnPnHNHB https://t.co/PN5lizMKsV
Positive VIX Spot‑Future Spread Signals Bearish Market
Here's the spread between spot VIX and the front month future. Positive spread is bearish. https://t.co/598aRc7d3r
Low Rates Trap Sellers, Stalling Housing Turnover
Symptom of the low mortgage rate golden handcuffs narrative that’s keeping housing market turnover depressed
US Stocks Just Starting to Sneeze, Put/Call Signals Downturn
US equities are only starting to sneeze. When it does, droplets fall everywhere, and you get infected. S&P500 and the CBOE Put/Call ratio. #SP500 #PutCallRatio #StockMarket $SPX $SPY #GlobalMarkets #PutCallRatio #TechnicalAnalysis #indiacharts https://t.co/hkGs4mAlj7
California Gas Prices Spike, Prompting Trump EO Talk
Californians: what prices are you seeing at the pump? Could be the right moment for @realDonaldTrump to issue $SOC EO. Getting oil through Hormuz past the Iranians easier than getting it to California past @CAgovernor et al.
Central Banks Miss Inflation Targets Five Years, War Delays Cuts
Central banks have overshot their inflation targets for FIVE YEARS. This war threatens to make that six. If you think they are just gonna cut rates anyway, I dunno what to tell you. Minimum - rate cuts are postponed.
Spotting the Bottom and Trading Tech Amid Fear
A short video, sharing my view on: 1. What will make this market bottom 2. How to trade technology stocks when fear is in the market. https://t.co/g39ErSlEhI
1990
log real oil in 2026 dollars. persian gulf, early 1990s at ~$73, in 2026 dollars. underlying is PGCRARLT INDX DES https://t.co/ZaA76mNpOi
Oil Spikes Signal Cycle End: Income Squeeze, Fed Reaction?
an old debate. Oil-price spikes have a nasty habit of marking the end of the cycle. But is that because of the income-squeeze, or the Fed's response? Or both? https://t.co/IE8tGIRy68
Fossil Fuel Prices Surge While Renewables Remain Unfazed
Another Monday morning, more energy market turbulence. After fossil fuel prices stabilised somewhat towards end of last week they are reaching new highs. Renewable electricity does not as the sun & the wind don’t care much for what happens in...
Qatar Delays LNG Expansion to 2027 After Drone Attack
Qatar is pushing back the start of its new LNG expansion project to 2027 🇶🇦⚠️ The move comes after the Ras Laffan facility was hit with an Iranian drone attack This threatens to further curb global gas supply and push back an...
VIX Futures Reverse After Testing 30, Volatility Looms
$VX 30 was tested overnight but VIX futures reversed from there. May still be a spicy day ahead of us. https://t.co/NDJwW1XZhG
Iran War and Oil Surge Amplify US Labor Market Risks
FYI, my latest article in the Financial Times discusses how the war in Iran and skyrocketing oil prices can compound the spillovers from an uncertain US labor market and financial strains in three market sectors. https://www.ft.com/content/418455bc-e177-46a4-8e25-44c837f49038 #economy #markets #oil #middleeastwar @financialtimes
23 Years of Dividend Growth Amid Volatile Uptrend
Couple of impressive aspects to #CKN - 23 years of Dividend growth and ShareScope showing the Share Price Chart in an Uptrend for 23 years (coincidence?). Quite wide swings in the Uptrend Channel though. I don't hold.
Master Gamma and Throttle for Pro Risk Management
GAMMA @t1alpha If you don't know where Gamma and its Throttle are, you really don't know how to manage risk like Macro Pros @Hedgeye do https://t.co/fU17MkB83v
FTSE's 5‑Wave Decline Signals European Bear Market
Is the European Bear Market officially here? A 5-wave decline on the FTSE is currently underway, which will confirm the major trend reversal: Check the exact chart structure link: https://t.co/4oJ2BVaD7J #FTSE100 #UKStocks #ElliottWave #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis $UKX https://t.co/hEs6rEDuGu
IEA Stockpiles Insufficient Due to Low Release Rates
About any IEA oil stocks release: ✔️ Volume may not be an issue. At 1.2 billion barrels government stockpiles and 0.6 bil barrels commercial stockpiles, the volume is enough *in theory* to offset the loss of 20 mil b/d for 90...
Oil Prices Hit $100, Crisis Likely Deepens
"This may be a war but it's also perhaps the biggest energy supply/logistics crisis we've ever seen in modern history:" Mizuho's Jordan Rochester. "Oil is now on a $100pb handle and it might be there to stay," with greater likelihood...
IEA Emergency Oil Releases Have Surged, 2022 Tops History
History of IEA collective oil emergecy stockpiles releases (and size; note the size was volume offered): 1991: First Gulf War (~75 million) 2005: Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (~60 million) 2011: Libya civil war (~60 million) 2022: Russia-Ukraine (~180 million in two tranches)
Gulf Bottlenecks Trap OPEC+ Capacity, Limiting Supply Boost
“Most OPEC+ spare capacity (about 4 mb/d) is trapped behind Gulf export bottlenecks, rendering near‑term policy interventions ineffective. Even Saudi Arabia’s pre‑conflict ramp‑up toward 10.9 mb/d does little to ease global supply unless export routes re‑open.” - SocGen
Brent Holds $106‑108 as IEA Stock Decision Looms
Crude in a holding pattern -- likely short-lived -- with Brent at $106-108/bbl, awaiting IEA stock release decision.
2026 Carry Trade Plans Faltered as Curves Flattened
Basically; 2026 was supposed to be the year where you bought carry in 26 STIR contracts, and cash bond curves would steepen. Best laid plans and all that.
10‑Year Note Futures
10 Yr Note Futures fall again (-13.5/32's to 112-00+) Since tagging 114 and seeing the UST Active 10 Yr Note fall under 4%, it has been a steady reversal aided by the war in the Middle East. https://t.co/aX13QG6ARo
Markets Overreact: Pricing Unlikely Rate Hikes Across Europe
Markets pricing in rate hikes from the ECB, the BoE... and the SNB. You gotta be kidding me.
Oil Supply Drop Equals ~4 Days, Not 20
Current oil supply is not zero. It is 20% less than before. So this would mean 20 days of consumption.
Oil Hits $120, Asian Markets Brace for Further Drops
CRUDE OIL Prices above $120 🔥 Big bad news - whole Asian Market Falling 📉 Now understand why I booked remaining profit on Friday. More fall coming - Strong breakdown on chart.🚨 Don't panic ❌ Take decision's wisely ✅ @champ_trader
China Emerges as War’s Biggest Winner, US Falters
No. China is the big winner. Putin will still lose in Ukraine. But Xi looks increasingly stable and sane to the world, as the US looks worse and worse, and weakens and distracts itself. China's EV industry stands to benefit...
Use Market Drop as Long-Term Investment Opportunity
Blood is on the streets. Sadly, even literally. Portfolios will bleed too, and this time it's a man made disaster. We've seen these before, and we've emerged eventually out of them better, but man made disasters tend to take a little...
Bangladesh Shuts Universities to Curb Energy Demand Amid Crisis
Demand destruction as we speak, starting with Bangladesh. Thailand and China curbed exports of diesel and gas. Vietnam will do so next.
23800 Support Crushed, Target 275‑300 Zone
23800 was a crucial support for Nifty50 and it’s been brutally broken today 😬 >> Holding 10 Mar 23900 PE, avg ~195.50. Option already spiked to 325.95, largely driven by gamma expansion + IV spike after the breakdown...💥🔥 >> Current plan: looking for...
G7 Ministers Call Emergency Meeting, Consider Oil Reserve Release
G7 finance ministers to hold emergency conference call at 12.30pm London time to discuss the impact of the US- -Iran war, Paris said in a statement. According to the Financial Times, several G7 nations favour a release of their Strategic Petroleum...