Turkey's Economy Surged While Saudi and Iran Stagnated
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, the economic performance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran were virtually identical. The only economy in the region that boomed was Turkey. A GRAPH IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS. https://t.co/1l6xvZVSll
Semiconductor ETF SMH Reverses Near Key 375 Pivot
Semiconductors $SMH tapped and reversed right at a key prior pivot around the ~375 area seen here on @IBDinvestors MarketSurge. Was hoping for a flush toward 370 this AM, so for now I’m just watching how the day closes, but it's...
Oil Prices Surge, Volatility Spikes Ahead of Live Market Call
Lots to chat about this morning with oil surging and vol spiking 🛢️📈 MRKT Call is LIVE at 11 am ET with Dan & @CarterBWorth 📺 WATCH: https://t.co/6sahpHh8D9 https://t.co/mAD77jkCZv
EVs Cutting Oil Demand by 1.5M Barrels Daily
Are electric vehicles denting oil demand? Yes. By how much? 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, according to EV Curve Futurist. Caveat: These estimates are hard, but the numbers are certainly adding up.
Rockefeller Center Hits 98% Lease at Record Rents
The iconic Rockefeller Center. Ben Epstein and his team handle the leasing, and they’re crushing it. 6.5M square feet, 98% leased. Rents? The highest they’ve ever seen. Fun geeking out on the market - hard to imagine a more incredible leasing assignment anywhere. https://t.co/yBZqAs7D2v
Stop Forecasting Oil, Start Preparing for Price Swings
Don’t Predict Oil Prices, Prepare for Them - https://t.co/MNGa0kJy3v #oilprices #peakoil #supplychain #logistics #riskmanagement #decisionscience
Heating Oil Prices Surge $1.50 per Gallon Since February
Email from my home heating oil company: "This recent price run up is the biggest and most dramatic I have ever seen. Our heating oil suppliers have raised the prices they are charging us by more than $1.50 per gallon since...
VIX at 28 vs SPX Down 4.6
Vix front contract is 28 SPX Level 6650. Down 4.6% from ATH Which one is "wrong"
Year‑long 10% Energy Surge Adds 40bps Inflation, Cuts Growth
1/5 A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. So, what price measures "persists for a...
Tankers Poised for 20‑30% Surge Despite Market Blindspot
Tankers should be surging, but broad market again missing forest (insanely strong markets, cascading inefficiency) for the trees (worry abt handful of ships at anchor). Top two public #shipping trades: $DHT ($18.36) $STNG ($77.75) Bookmark, check in a month. 20-30%+ potential.
Tax Alpha, Family Offices, and AI-Driven Client Reviews
🆕 Adviser links: the hunt for tax alpha, the rise of the family office, and using AI to review your client meetings. https://t.co/XSvv0VbRQN image: https://t.co/MGALlsH37N https://t.co/Jc78m3xZ0E
China’s Low Inflation Mirrors Slower Money Supply Growth
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.3%/yr in February, BELOW its 2% target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Beyond Price Control: New Roles for a Full US SPR
People recoil at the idea of using the SPR just to damp prices. But now that the US has plenty of domestic oil, what other purposes would it serve? What other conditions would be an appropriate time to use it?
Sector Breakout Signals Multi-Year Underweight Retail Shift
These aren't just news-related war pops in oil & gasoline. You're talking about four year base breakouts for a deeply underweight sector throughout retail and institutions.
Oil Spikes Above $119 as Supply Cuts, War Fears Loom
LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices surged to more than $119 a barrel on Monday, hitting levels not seen since mid-2022, as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruption gripped the market due to the...
Global Bonds Tumble as Oil Spikes on Middle East Conflict
LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 9 (Reuters) - Bonds across the globe sank on Monday as a rapidly worsening U.S.-Israeli war with Iran briefly pushed oil prices near $120, heightening investor fears over inflation which they bet may prompt European central banks to...
Aramco Cuts Output as Hormuz Disruption Escalates
March 9 (Reuters) - Saudi oil giant Aramco https://t.co/YZZv8YNZz9 has begun cutting output at two of its oilfields, two sources said on Monday, after the vital Strait of Hormuz was choked by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and subsequent attacks...
BlackRock Shifts Lower on Private Credit, Signaling Decline
$BLK Monthly. Blackrock started to follow private credit lower last week. Long-term, steep rising channel breakdown. Tons of room to fall https://t.co/oUBZouXc0y
When VIX Hits 30+, It’s a Buying Signal
The VIX just hit 30. It's only been this high a handful of times in the last 20 years. Every single time was a great buying opportunity. VIX above 30 = buy VIX above 40 = go all-in VIX above 50 = do everything you...
G7's 400‑Million‑Barrel Release May Mask Iran Conflict Risks
G7 countries looking at releasing oil reserves. Maybe 400 million barrels. How much impact will this have? What if the Iran war continues, and reserves are drawn down?
Cities Must Signal Long-Term Investor Confidence, Not Just Regulations
Fact 1: On today's numbers, apartment buildings take 15-20 yrs to pay back the investment in building them. Fact 2: To justify that investment, investors need to expect the buildings to generate returns for decades thereafter. So, if your city wants private...
Executed QQQ Short and USO Long, Initiating Scripts
for those who attended the morning meeting i did take that $QQQ short mentioned. and $USO long mentioned into S3 (116). i'll probably look to put some scripts on now and start work on firm biz... https://t.co/6lLCZQs2BC
June Fed Rate‑cut Odds Drop to 40% Amid Oil Surge
Market expectations of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen to around 40%, close to their lowest levels in months following the run-up in oil prices, according to CME Group https://t.co/1DRbhts0Fk
Global Economy Faces More Violent, Frequent Shocks
Thank you, Andrew, Becky, and Joe for the conversation on Squawk Box this morning. FYI, here is one of the clips... https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/the-global-economy-is-subject-to-more-violent-and-frequent-shocks-says-mohamed-el-erian.html ... and here is the full interview: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-allianz-chief-economic-advisor-mohamed-el-erian.html #economy #markets @cnbc #oil #middleeastwar
Energy Shock Forces ECB Rate Hikes, Traders Bet Higher
Energy shock rewrites the ECB’s rate path as traders bet on hikes https://t.co/PhHe7FAJb5 via @highisland @greg_ritchie https://t.co/FvJg4WW5Ei
Buffett’s 17% Tax Rate Shows Investor Tax Advantage
Warren Buffett paid $6.9M of federal taxes on $39.8M of taxable income in 2010, or a 17.3% effective tax rate. Most of his income came from capital gains & qualified dividends taxed at a max rate of 15% back then. This is...
Oil Surge Lifts Inflation Swaps, Not Signaling Recession
1Y zero coupon inflation swaps have jumped (obvi) as oil prices surged Much more surprising to me is that 1Y1Y inflation swaps have risen That is, this isn’t a “price spike = recession” move All this while the super-backwardation in crude doesn’t...
Iran Conflict May Cement China’s Energy Dominance
How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance - Amid global oil and gas disruptions, China stands prepared for the electrostate era. https://t.co/XjVHuN91u9
Oil Prices Surge Above $119 Amid Iran Conflict
Oil Prices Hit Highest Since 2022 at More Than $119 a Barrel on Iran War. Price keeps rising. Logistics and supply chain risk keeps rising. https://t.co/OKkcOWm7OV
Japan Lifts YCC; Iran Targets UST Market Vulnerability
10y UST yield (blue, RS1) USDJPY * oil (red, LS) USDCNY * oil (green, RS2) Since Japan lifted YCC on 10y JGBs 👇 "Iran doesn't have to beat the US military; it just has to beat the UST market" -Title of 3/3/26...
Rising Oil Prices Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
Lower energy prices were keeping US inflation rates from rising. But that tailwind will turn into a headwind in March with prices spiking on a YoY basis. We could easily see CPI rise above 3% if Crude Oil stays above...
Iran War Doubles Oil Moves, Halves Dollar Impact
Compared to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion, this Iran war has produced 2x the move in oil, but only 1/2 the move in DXY. This is exactly what I'm talking about playing out - the dollar is structurally challenged. https://t.co/H1VIqKNbr7
Hedge Funds Cash In on Oil Spike, Keep Bullish Bet
Hedge funds realise some profits as oil prices climb Hedge funds and other money managers sold Brent futures and options last week to realise some of their profits on former bullish positions as prices surged after the United States and Israel...
Hormuz Reopening Could Trigger Sharp Dollar Decline
The Dollar (blue) and rate differentials (black) are massively diverging. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens - even if only a little bit - we'll see a very large drop in the Dollar. We're still very much in a regime...
TSX and RSP Oversold Yet Riding Uptrends
left: Canada $TSX stocks right: S&P 500 equal-weighted $RSP stocks both entering the trading day RSI(5) oversold, in uptrends, on the daily charts... https://t.co/BARO3vCCGX
Software Sector Shows Early Signs of Stabilizing Rebound
📺 THE MARKET MAY BE SETTING UP A SOFTWARE REBOUND The software sector is starting to look like a potential tactical trading opportunity, as the group may be stabilizing after a prolonged selloff, as buyers are stepping in. The key question is...
Master Entry Types, Trendlines, and Candlestick Patterns
Different Types of Entry📊 Different Types of Entry📊 Different Types of Entry📊 Different Types of Entry📊 How To Draw Trendline 📊 Neutral candlestick patterns📊 Strength Based On Levels📊 Strength Based On levels📊 Chart patterns 📊 Reversal Candlesticks📊
Oil Supply Deletion Drives Prices, Volatility, and Market Stress
$WTI above $100. $VIX above 33. Nikkei down 5.4%. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Zero tankers transiting. This isn't a supply disruption. It's a supply deletion. And the SPR is at 40-year lows. https://t.co/WaTisWuS4y
Significant Portion of S&P 1500 Still Oversold
we remain oversold on a % of stocks > 10-day EMA basis using the broader S&P 1500... https://t.co/GmeGzMjJWb
Iran's 70% Output Cut Predicts Oil Price Decline
Iran's oil production is down 70%, according to reports. When the fifth largest oil producing country in the world (at 5 million barrels a day) drops like this, we now know what the underlying asset price will do. https://t.co/jRLuiAK0xM
SNB Urged to Act Now to Weaken Franc
The SNB must be in the market ‘right now’ to weaken the Swiss franc, Sarasin’s Junius says https://t.co/0XhL08pNpx via @bbenrath https://t.co/IVfxoI9Dv0
Tech Funding Dwindles as Market Torpedo Approaches
Now some see it. I presented to clients a full week ago: "Tech To Lose Its Key Source Of Funds" Update here: There's A Torpedo Headed For The US Stock Market But It's Not The One You Think https://t.co/zzV2LfHfgz
VIX Must Settle Before Equity Buy Signal Triggers
my volatility $VIX vs. S&P 500 $SPX model is "into the zone" and now will require the $VIX to settle to fire a buy signal for equities... https://t.co/SP0txifsUA
U.S. Gas Prices Hit Highest Since Summer 2024
The national average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has climbed to its highest level since the summer of 2024 @WSJmarkets https://t.co/6mDhre9ozD https://t.co/UVDG3Mq2Rd
Closed Hormuz Strait Shifts Oil Risk to Reopening
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. It's not going to get more closed than it already is. All the risk is now on the other side, i.e. when and to what extent it opens. You can bet Trump is very...
ES Futures Slip to 200‑Day MA, Brief Bounce
$ES_F down to the 200 day MA and a bounce for now. TBD where it ends up... https://t.co/bWFRDuQQ4U
Buy Gold Above $5200 as Dollar Strength Persists
Macro: USD & yields up; oil spike lifts risk‑off. Key: $5000 sup, $5150–$5200 res. Risks: Middle East safe‑haven vs dollar strength. Trade: Buy on decisive close >$5200. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Market Fear Peaks: Gap Widest Since 2000
Either the crash the market is pricing in arrives — or this is peak fear. Why? VIX at 32. SPX moving at 14%. The gap between fear and reality is the 5th widest since 2000: -Jan '09 (GFC): +24.4 -Jan '21 (Meme...
S&P 500 Weekly RSI Oversold—Selling Now Likely Too Late
the S&P 500 $SPX is RSI(5) oversold on the weekly chart for the first time since the Mar/Apr '25 period... we typically see this happen once/year... a reminder that suddenly becoming negative at this(that) point and selling all your stocks,...
VRT Joins S&P 500 After Friday Close
$VRT was added to the S&P 500 after the close last Friday. Chart courtesy of @marketsurge @IBDinvestors #IBDPartner https://t.co/nBBYFdAKO8