Capital‑Efficient International Overlay Adds Global Exposure Without Selling US
Our latest 90/60 ETF idea out today This idea came from a client in our capital efficient overlays w/ gold. Problem: current portfolio was 100% US stocks --likes idea of adding international, but doesn't want to sell US core. Solution: Capital efficient Intl overlay >>>
Abundant Money Missed: Reevaluate Your Strategy
if you failed to make money on this Open you need to review your process. there was too much money and good risk/reward to have not pulled money out of the market. $QQQ $MU $SLV https://t.co/Ldkou9WOfj
Fed Diverges, Creating Clean Macro Trade Opportunity
🚨Every central bank just warned us about inflation Here's what happened this week: ↳ Fed still stuck on easing ↳ ECB and BOE market pricing in 2-3 rate HIKES in 2026 ↳ BOJ keeping its tightening bias intact ↳ SNB hinting at negative rates to...
SPX Above 6640 Signals Short‑term Failure Risk
If $SPX gets back above 6640 (and the 200 day MA), we would have a short-term failure on our hands. Not sure if that kick starts anything substantial, but it wouldn't be a terrible look...
Sold Half of March Hedge Discussed on BizBriefing
sold half of the March hedge I spoke of on @BizBriefing this am with @janetonthemoney .
War, Debt, and Inflation Will Cripple Growth Stocks
Growth stocks will be severely decapitated from this war. I just check some data and growth stocks valuations will get capped. Working overtime to get the data ready. It’s not as simple as just buying the dip with 1. Cost of War 2. Escalation of...
Copper Stocks Tumble as Supply Outpaces Demand
i can hear the copper stock investors from here... "but, but, but, there is a shortfall of copper" why are the stocks falling? $COPX $FCX $SCCO answer: more supply than demand... they rallied hard, many were surely late, and now...
Oversold Doesn't Signal Bullishness; No Reversion Yet
Oversold is NOT Bullish. The REVERSION from Oversold is (can be). *FYI - We have no reversion (yet).
Bearish SLV Call Proven Right as Prices Plunge 44%
Back in January, when I was heckled for this tweet on selling $SLV, it only convinced me more that my analysis—and bearish view—was right. Today, bottom fishers are getting slammed as we hit fresh new lows down over 11% this...
Iranian Attack Knocks 17% of QatarEnergy LNG Offline
QatarEnergy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage. https://t.co/LWYkomhG8G
S&P 500
Will look closer later, but this might be the first time in a while the S&P 500 gapped under its 200-day MA without having previously breached it even intraday in the prior months. Interesting.
Lag
Have a sense this will be a hawkish presser, on balance ... difficult for Lagarde to push back against market expectations given these new forecasts, unless you take a very asymmetric view on inflation v growth risks, which they may...
Consistently Beating the S&P? Just Buy the Market
Beating the S&P 500 isn't difficult. But beating the S&P 500 consistently, over the long term, is very very difficult. Many people overestimate their ability to pick good stocks over the long term. They eventually realize that it’s a losing game. That's why...
Micron Bounces to S1, Must Hold
$MU #1 GP nice bounce from S3 to S1. needs to hold above S1 for a real reversal... https://t.co/p5x41JetUu
Bigger Homes Reset Wealth, Stalling Financial Growth
The “Upgrade Trap” Why Most People Become Poorer Every Time They Buy a Bigger House This is one of the most ignored patterns in Gurgaon. People think upgrading homes means moving forward. In reality, most upgrades reset wealth. And every reset delays compounding. The First Property...
European Gas Prices Soar, Boosting US Nat Gas Asset Value
European gas is now >6x the price of US gas. US nat gas assets becoming more valuable by the day.
European Freight Rates Set to Drop as Diesel Soars
[Editor's Pick] European Freight Rates Face Immediate Corrections on Soaring Diesel Prices - https://t.co/0yXOKgPT8A @TransporeonUS @TrimbleCorpNews #dieselprices #EU #trucking #transportation #logistics #supplychain
Germany Mulls Windfall Tax Amid Iran War‑driven Fuel Surge
Germany weighs windfall tax as Iran war drives fuel price surge https://t.co/9SNpQgvAXy via @KowalczeKamil https://t.co/YrOXXrSiVq
ECB Sees Higher Inflation, yet Hesitates to Tighten
Big plot twist for the ECB; yes their forecasts might be out of date, but the HICP fcts are reasonably punchy for 2026 ... smart move; the big question though is; why not tighten? They see materially higher inflation and...
Call Spread Fails, Roll Down 425 Put
$MU "Trade Idea 2: Buy the March 465/475 Call Spread ($5.00) and sell the March 425 Put for 35 cents." call spread a bust, may need to roll puts down and out
Long US Equities Remain Top Relative-Value Pick
caught up with Politico earlier this week—reiterated that long US on a relative value basis is the best bet for DM https://t.co/Fp6nW6gQDZ
ECB Stays Cautious, Emphasizes Energy Shock Ripple Effects
🇪🇺 ECB decision more balanced. The GC is "well positioned to navigate this uncertainty", not signalling any imminent move. Risk scenarios to be published at 3:45pm. Key will be "the magnitude of indirect and second-round effects of a stronger and...
ECB Holds Rate at 2% Amid War‑Driven Risks
#ECB leaves deposit rate at 2.00% as expected. Says war poses upside inflation risks, downside growth risks. Says to decide based on core inflation, transmission strength. Says not pre-committing to particular rate path. https://t.co/9tExdmlBDB
Testing Complaints: Turning Trends Into Real Numbers
“One of my favorite things to do is take a trend that everybody’s complaining about and then see if we can actually see it in the numbers.” ~@a_m_mastroianni
Senior Deals Earn Fees, Then Face Distressed Capital
The 2024 SteerCo playbook: Go super-senior, get fees, get paid. The 2026 SteerCo playbook: Go super-senior, get fees, get stuck with new money that’s now also distressed.
Gold as Collateral; SLV Projected to Dip Below $60
Folks often forget Gold is a collateral trade. Once stuff really starts to break, metals fall fast. I gave $SLV $61 with overshoot to 58.56 . How we doin’? JOIN US LIVE. Trading room starts ...
Gas Price Searches Show Calm After 2022 Panic
FWIW - "Cheapest Gas Near Me" searches tell us that while consumers are now concerned, they still aren't as panicked as they were during 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. https://t.co/P4wIhotOdw
UK’s Repeated Crises Undermine Global Economic Stability
Why is the UK always the source of curve instability? Brexit, Truss and now this
Yesterday's Performance Snapshot of 20+ Stocks
This is how the stocks of the reporting companies performed yesterday: $OKLO $LULU $DOCU $HQY $ZTO $QFIN $BOBS $KMTS $NN $ANDG $GIS $JBL $M $WSM $BZ $SAIL $HTHT $OSS $BGSI $MOMO https://t.co/brMbX55V6C
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum Remains Low
Week isn't over, but weekly momentum for the S&P 500 is at a pretty low level..... https://t.co/4q8LlgwKjX
Market Breadth Oversold, Bullish Divergence Emerging
still sitting #marketbreadth oversold on the % of stocks in S&P 1500 > 10-day EMA... currently ~20.9% with a slight bullish divergence in development... https://t.co/lAQ6MQiufR
US Export Sales Flat; Wheat, Soybeans Miss Expectations
🇺🇸U.S. export sales were modest all around last week with wheat and soybeans falling below all expectations. The corn volume is a bit more normal for the week historically but somewhat underwhelming in the context of 2025/26's record pace. https://t.co/3LR2fLgFuR
Treasury Secretary Hints at Unsanctioning Iranian Oil, Second SPR Release
What US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told @FoxBusiness about unsanctioning Iranian barrels -- and a potential 2nd SPR release. (I look forward to see how KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait feel about unsanctioning Iranian oil barrels) https://t.co/buyI81abII
Oil $200 Price Unrealistic; Even $150 Doubtful
Of course it's possible that oil goes to $200. But that kind of price level basically assumes a return to full shut down for all oil coming out of the Persian Gulf and a very low price elasticity of demand....
Energy Surges, Financials Slump: 40% Sector Gap
>40% spread between the best and worst performing sectors so far this year... -Energy $XLE: +31% -Financials $XLF: -11% Video: https://t.co/kTI1Olplo7
Gold Futures Extend Downward Trend, Key Support Holds
GC: overnight downside follow-through with more range expansion. Key reference point still in play. https://t.co/HJ2JZL0ipm
Testing 6631.50 Swing Low Signals Short Covering
SP - test previous swing low....6631.50. (Will be main reference point for rest of day) but easy to see the initial short covering come in. https://t.co/UBAbLSkevS
Oil Spike Is Tax, Not Rally, Hits Consumers
Brent near $110. WTI at $96-103. Strait of Hormuz blocked. $XLE at all-time highs. $SPY at 2026 lows. This is not an oil rally. This is a tax on every consumer, every margin, every growth assumption. https://t.co/QUhNdfGuZ7
Trolls Panic as Silver Nears Half Its January Peak
Funny reading back through the comments from the trolls now in a panic with Silver almost at 50% of its Jan high What ever happened to the Silver supply shortage and the big premiums in China?
2015 Yuan Devaluation Warns of Gold, Silver Risks
Commodities plunged post China yuan devaluation in 2015. I wonder if there is a signal here for Gold & Silver. China isn’t exporting their refined products to neighbors who are at great risk. China has 3-4 months of reserves itself -...
US Waivers De‑Stigmatize Russian Oil, Boosting Putin
Big thanks to @Aaron_Krolik for including me in this great @nytimes story on how Russia is a major beneficiary from the sharp rise in oil prices. Temporary US waivers of Russia sanctions are de-stigmatizing Russian oil and giving Putin a...
Real Estate Set to Benefit From Private Credit Exodus
Real estate could be the big winner in the private credit exodus https://t.co/DFzvuJjBGz #realestateinvesting @JLL @blackstone @CoStarGroup
UK Yields Surge, Highlighting Limited Fiscal Headroom
UK 2 year yield + 23bps UK 5 year yield +22bps UK 10 year yield +13bps About that fiscal headroom 🤔
Geopolitical Oil Surge Threatens India's Inflation and Rupee
Surging Crude Oil Prices: The geopolitical unrest caused Brent crude oil prices to spike past $115–$118 per barrel. As a major energy importer, this poses a significant risk to India's inflation outlook, the rupee, and corporate profit margins.
Gold Slides as BoE Signals Two 2026 Hikes
#Gold takes more beating as #BoE grows hawkish mkt prices TWO rate hikes in 2026 #forex
Platinum Now in Intermediate Bear Market; Risk of Full Rout
Platinum has now entered an intermediate bear market The problem with intermediate bear trends is that they can become complete routs https://t.co/MdjgBz11ky
Market Turns Hawkish, Forecasts Only 9bps Cuts in 2024
The market's implied forecasts for Fed rate forecasts through 2026 now only projects -9bps of rate cuts this year. So the market is more hawkish than the Fed's forecast - the market was more dovish than the Fed two weeks...
Prolonged Disruptions Will Scar Oil Output, Keep Prices High
This is not good news for an already strained global energy market. The longer this goes on the more long-term damage will be done to oil production that will take markets longer to recover from. Oil prices will not “drop...
Brent Crude Spikes Past $118, Then Eases
“The price of Brent crude surpassed $118 a barrel on Thursday, an increase of nearly 10 percent, but has since pared some of those gains.” https://t.co/Z9YDmbtUW3
War‑time Gold Dips Then Soars: Expect Repeat Rally
Reminder from 2003 Iraq invasion, Gold dipped sharply right after start of war due to margin liquidation despite pre-war rally. Then roared for 7+ years. Today's US-Iran tensions + recent pre war rally = similar early pressure? Margin calls and sell the...