Iran War Reshapes Fed Expectations and Monetary Policy Outlook
Worth noting just how much the Iran war has changed expectations about the Fed and the future path of monetary policy. https://t.co/NBYZx2Uuza
Visa and Peers Hit Multi‑quarter Lows, Signaling Recession
$V Daily. Fresh breakdown and multi-quarter lows for Visa. Other credit cards look similar: $AXP $COF $MA. Continued short ideas. Recession indicator https://t.co/PMviYmmHiu
Trump's Influence Undermines Fed Credibility Amid Rate‑Cut Skepticism
When you see markets pricing in no chance of a cut in April, and less than a cut this entire year, and we are still talking about the possibility of three dissents against holding rates constant today, you realize how...
Active Managers Stuck in Cap‑weighted Comfort Zone
The irony of modern markets: “active” investors moored to the same cap-weighted tide they’re meant to transcend—forsaking a risk-adjusted spread for benchmarked comfort. Betas, indeed.
Homebuilder Outlook Improves: Inventory Stabilizes, Costs Decline
[@opinion] My housing friends may think I'm early, but I think the outlook for homebuilders has shifted from 🔴to 🟡 this year -- resale inventory is stabilizing, costs are coming down, and they've made a big enough dent on affordability...
Purchase Applications Stay Positive Weekly Year‑Over‑Year
Even with all the drama this year, purchase application data has been positive year over year every week. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #realestate #economics #chartdaddy
NIO's First Profit Sparks Debate Over Tesla Rivalry
$NIO vs $TSLA Total deliveries growth. $NIO had its first profitable quarter recently. Have they finally turned the corner to sustainable growth and do you think this could rival Tesla? #tsla #investingadvice #stockmarketanalysis #marketvisuals
Crude Stocks Rise, Distillate Levels Near Critical
🎯EIA: US commercial crude inventories increased by 6.2 mb to 449.3mb. Watch distillate inventories as they might decline to critical levels.
Dominant Hedge Fund Consolidator Drives Elite Traders Out
Together, the two stories trace the multistrat arc from unstoppable consolidator of hedge fund power & talent in 2022 to, by 2026, such a dominant machine that some elite traders are starting to walk away and set their own terms....
BX Tests 21‑Day MA; Stops May Shift Up
$BX tapping on the 21ma daily. Will move up some of the stops if holds over it.
Aging Rental Stock Forces New Construction and Renovations
America's rental stock is aging. The median age of a rental unit is now 45 years old, the oldest on record, according to Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies. And that will likely have major implications on housing policy and trends...
Shrink Position Size as Discount Narrows
Once a security's discount to underwritten fair market value has appropriately narrowed, and thus your margin of safety has diminished, so too should your sizing.
China Refuses to Tap Reserves for Global Supply
Well, China isn't going to dip into its strategic reserves to help supply the rest of the world ... 1/2
Iraq Reports Iran Gas Supplies Fully Halted After Offshore Attack
Iraq says Iran gas supplies have completely halted after attack on offshore field, INA reports https://t.co/tZ53tmRYVt
Volatility Is Volatile: Expect Choppy, Unpredictable Paths
No clue if markets go up, down, or sideways. But throughout this recent debacle, it has been clear to me that a lot of folks do not realize that volatility is very… well….volatile. When people look at charts and data from...
CARR Reverses, Surpasses 100ma Daily Amid Small Gap
$CARR with reversal confirmed and back over 100ma daily. There is a small gap overhead and the 20/50ma's won't be easy and stops will be moved to no green to red rather quick. https://t.co/PYtq0MBJu3
Asia Faces Demand Destruction as Middle Eastern Crude Hits $150
1/5 Where Is the Demand Destruction? tl:dr - Asia because they are reliant on Middle Eastern Crude oil, and it is now over $150/barrel. This is keeping (for now) the American and European grades "only" ~$100. (% gain since the war) https://t.co/A6Rk6TjszH
Energy Inflation and Oil Prices Discussed on CNBC
On @CNBCClosingBell with @jonfortt, I discussed energy inflation, oil prices, and #META. ➡️Link: https://t.co/JLN4ZioBDD (3/17/2026) @cwp_advisor #Oil https://t.co/90DlUz7eMz
Real Estate PE Delivers 2x Return Before Deal Begins
Why is real estate private equity so lucrative? Because you basically get a 2x return on your capital before the deal even starts Let’s take a sample deal: $10MM purchase price. The deal will be purchased with a $7.5MM loan and $2.5MM of...
Micron Rallies 100+ Points Ahead of Earnings
$MU Daily. Up over 100 points in a little over a week, headed into earnings tonight. Micron is definition of optimistic. On a tear since Sept. 2025. https://t.co/D2r1prShVZ
Oil Production Damage Irreversible, Prices Set to Surge
the destruction of oil and gas production has begun...now there's no turning back for oil prices. Once long-term damage is done, production won't return to previous levels just because hostilities cease & marine traffic resumes
Oil's Global Price Cracks Under Stress, Spreads Surge
Oil is a almost perfectly fungible commodity* with a single global price ... except during periods of stress Via JP's Natasha Kaneva, the spread between North Atlantic sweet light and the oil Asia normally buys has reached extreme levels * setting...
Purchase App Data Up 1% Weekly, 12% YoY
Purchase application data update: +1% week to week +12% year over year Every week this year has had positive year-over-year data. https://t.co/gfHZLTffev
Gold Dips Below $5k, Breaks 50‑day SMA After 146 Days
Gold has dropped below 5,000 and cleared its 50-day SMA for the first time in 146 trading days above the moving average. We haven't seen a bullish move of that magnitude (spot above 50 SMA) since March 17, 2008...Remarkable coincidence https://t.co/yoJTpSTTBz
Media Misreports Diesel Carbon Price, Overstates Emission Costs
The media's go-to on all things food supply chain related missed a 21c/L drop in carbon prices on diesel fuel, and wrote an article on the implications of the no-longer-existent carbon price on combustion emissions increasing to 29c/L.
Using AVWAP to Manage Puts and Hedge Positions
$IBIT - I know it's a messy looking chart...but this is how I'm managing my puts (noted yesterday). Get above that AVWAP - ill close it. *Also functioning as a hedge against my $IGV and $COIN positions. https://t.co/pSBzB90JwN
Dow Gaps Down, Stays in Multi‑Week Downtrend
US equities open lower with the Dow gapping down and in turn holding to its multi-week descending channel https://t.co/ZEWi9gngsN
War Drives Gas Prices Up 86 Cents, 28.8% Rise
Yesterday was day #17 of the war. The national average of gasoline is up 86 cents (middle panel) Or 28.8% (bottom panel) https://t.co/I26G2JAxHr
Iran Gas Strike Could Push Turkey to Import More LNG
An unintended consequence of the strikes on Iran’s gas fields? Turkey may be forced to import more LNG 🇹🇷 🚢 Iran sends gas from South Pars to Turkey via a pipeline (making up ~15% of the country’s demand) If that’s shut,...
Markets Signal Persistent Oil Shock Beyond Short-Term
The market is gradually pricing in that this is more than a short-term oil shock. Below: white: oil futures curve, current blue: oil futures curve, a week ago orange: oil futures curve, 6 months ago https://t.co/8wQF3jaa8y
Save 15% Early, Secure Retirement by 65
If you want to retire at 65, you have to save at least 15% of your salary (including 401k match) starting at 25. Use that money to: 1. Get full employer's 401k match 2. ESPP (if applicable) 3. HSA (if eligible) 4. Roth IRA 5. Finish...
Homebuilder Sales Stall as Rates, Oil Concerns Loom
Through mid-March, homebuilder sales and pricing trends have underwhelmed. Not a great start to the spring selling season, with homebuilders we survey noting Iran/oil/rising interest rates becoming part of the consumer psyche for staying on the sidelines.
Trade the Setup, Not the Catalyst
📺 BIG DAY FOR MEMORY STOCKS The real move in names like $MU, $SNDK, and $WDC happened before $MU earnings, not because of them. A textbook sequence played out: red dog reversal, relative strength vs a weak market, clean holds of...
Carbon Diesel Tax Drop Disproves Linear Increase Assumption
Carbon price directly applied on diesel decreased by 21c/L from 2024-26. It was scheduled to increase to 29c/l. The Food Professor's math assumes that linear increase over time remained in effect. No, it's not the CFR or the industrial price,...
Sell March LULU Strangle for Credit, Await IV Drop
$LULU "Trade Idea 4: Sell the March 140/187.50 Strangle for a $2.20 credit.' looks to expire, let IV fall then can buy to close or watch
Inflation Surge Puts Fed Meeting at Crisis Crossroads
Inflation Just EXPLODED 🔥 Does the Fed Have a Crisis on its Hands? Stocks crashed. Gold collapsed. Dollar soared Fed meets TODAY - and this one number could change everything for 2026👇 Follow for updates $SPY $QQQ $DIA $GLD $DXY $USDJPY $ES...
Expect Regular Double‑digit Drops; only True Investors Persist
The market has had a negative return about 1 in every 4 years. You can expect a drop of over 10% every other year. You can expect a drop of over 20% about every four years. Successful investors know this. If you can’t...
Most Sectors Missed Breakouts; only Energy Holds
So many important areas of the market have failed their breakouts....if you use intermarket analysis...why would the assumption be small caps won't? We have no confirmation from anywhere else in the market it would? Energy(ish) stocks literally the only area of the...
Rate Shifts Since Jan FOMC Concentrated at Front End
Rates moves from Jan FOMC to today are basically all in the front end https://t.co/z4SHlodCLM
12‑Month Oil Futures Surge Past March Spike
Oil for delivery in 12 months is now way above its spike on March 9. Even if the futures curve were a market forecast of prices -- which as @Rory_Johnston will remind us, it is absolutely not -- that forward...
Zero Rates Spark Price Spikes, Then Rent Collapse
File under: Wish someone had told me When interest rates go to zero, the main reason to sell real estate is bc pricing goes crazy. But a secondary reason to sell is that interest rates at zero will catalyze a development boom,...
Shale Boom Turns US Oil Vulnerability Into Strength
As in decades past, high oil prices are causing fears of recession & pain at the pump. But the shale boom means the US now has the potential to turn a previous vulnerability to a source of strength. My latest with...
Early Position Management Saves Traders as SPX Swings
$spx futures from +35 to -25 It’s good to get up early and manage ur positions. $spy chart https://t.co/jgRx8rsmyg
PPI Shows No $80+ Oil Days in February
Producer Prices - How much oil data (days > $80) is in this PPI inflation data? PPI vs Brent Move -- Zero days above $80 in this Feb PPI print—WTI cruised the entire month between $61–$67 (avg ~$64.50, peak 67.31 on...
Control of Hormuz Determines Iran War’s Global Impact
Comparing what is now happening with what has happened in analogous historical situations and triangulating my thinking with smart, well-informed leaders and experts has always helped me make better decisions. I have found that most wars are filled with big...
Gold's 8% Drop Threatens Debasement Trade Momentum
Gold is now down 8% from before the war (blue). That may be due to the crazy run-up in precious metals and people locking in gains now that uncertainty is so high. But - the longer this sell-off lasts -...
China’s 90% Model Redefines Global Economic Power
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤. What if China’s economic power is much bigger than we realize? In just 45 seconds, I’ll reveal the truth behind China’s 90% Model and how it’s reshaping industries globally. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮’𝐥𝐥 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧: The insidious strategy behind...
Israel Hits Iran's South Pars, World's Largest Gas Field
Israel just struck Iranian infrastructure at South Pars, the world's biggest natural gas field. This natgas episode is definitely worth a listen ⬇️⬇️
BCOM Nears Key Resistance, Mirrors 2008 Surge
Peak Inklings: $120 Crude, $6 Copper, $5 Corn, $7 Natural Gas - Up almost 25% in 2026 to March 17, the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM) is showing its diversification attributes. Will autocorrelation be avoided this time? In 2008,...
US Strikes on Iran Risk 5% Global Oil Loss
Iran produces 4-5% of the world's total oil supply, making it the 3rd largest producer in OPEC. The best case for this conflict just took a leg lower. At best, this ends in the next 1-2 months and the Strait...