Gold's TSI Bearish Crossover Signals Potential Top
$Gold - Major warning sign: the TSI has a bearish crossover as it had in 2008, 2011 and 2021, but it's a monthly chart so the crossover has to remain intact at the end of May to be valid. The January top will be confirmed as a major top only when it closes below the 10 month MA. https://t.co/SM5F2fMnw6
Rent Control Drives Developers to Halt New Projects
If you really think rent control doesn't reduce supply, go spend time talking to apartment developers who build that supply -- and ask them why they're not building in St. Paul MN or Montgomery County MD and why they've frozen...
Marks Reveals Hidden $10 Bill, Switches on AI
Howard Marks runs Oaktree, a $120 billion+ firm built on distressed debt, has been writing the memos Warren Buffett opens first for over thirty years, and just changed his mind on AI after a single conversation with Claude — we...
Sacramento Listings Slightly Down Year‑over‑year, Still Historically Low
The number of active listings is slightly lower than one year ago in Sacramento. It's better than two years ago, but still historically low. By the way, we're going to start comparing this year to a dull market last year,...
DXY Hits 3‑year Low, May Slip to 96
$DXY monthly - Made a 3 year cycle low in January. The action this year has been similar to 2021 when it rallied into March but retested the low in May. At the moment it looks like May will be...
Intel's 130x EPS Valuation Ignores Stagnant Growth
$INTC is trading at an absurd 130X 2027 EPS on just 20% datacenter growth but who's keeping track am I right? This stock is going nowhere for 10 years.
0.2% Tax Generates $115M, Yet Home Tax Minimal
Let's assume there are 3500 worth $5MM, 2000 worth $10MM, and 1000 worth $20MM. 0.2% tax and you raise $115MM. The $5MM second home pays $10k, which is less than their annual real estate taxes (roughly $50-70k for...
Record Highs and Low Volatility Signal Dangerous Market Crowding
Record closes and “calm” volatility are a dangerous combo. SPX: first close above 7,200. Nasdaq: +15.3% in April. HY spreads: ~282 bps. VIX: 18.02. That’s not fear. That’s crowding. The unwind never rings a bell. markets
Nasdaq up 15% in April, HY Spreads Stay High
April +15.3% on Nasdaq… and HY OAS is ~282 bps. That’s not “risk-off.” $QQQ https://t.co/NMz38kcNP3
UST Auctions Trigger Record MOVE Spike and VIX Surge
The Great MOVE UST Volatility Crash of April 2026: Blue = MOVE; red = VIX; green = Oil Mar 24, 25, 26 = 3 straight ugly UST auctions Mar 26 = MOVE hits 115 (near dysfunctional levels) Mar 27 = MOVE & VIX peak...
Buy Pullbacks to R1 After R3 Breakout
often, when you see a strong opening drive above R3 the pullback to R1 will be bought... $TEAM https://t.co/7TF8533yTV
FOMC Dissent Procedural; Wait for June SEP to Revise Statement
In the weekly commentary that drops tomorrow, I suggest the 3 FOMC dissents over the statement was more procedural than substantive. When is the best time to change the statement--the majority was including to wait for the June iteration of...
China’s Growth Defied CCP; Market Capitalism Poised to Win
since 1978, china’s economy grew in spite of the ccp, not because of it. as ai creates new challenges just as their economy slows, their ham fisted approach is likely to cause more harm. this will be another great victory...
Mega Backdoor Roth: Boost Roth Savings via After‑Tax 401k
Does your 401k have an "after-tax" account? If so, you can use the Mega Backdoor Roth strategy to invest $40,000+ to a Roth account in addition to your regular contributions. It's an amazing strategy to minimize future taxes on growth for high...
Brent Prompt Price Shifts From June to July Contract
On the Brent futures contract roll: The "price" everyone typically talks about is the prompt Brent (or WTI) futures price (white on the chart), which is the nearest-dated monthly contract. In April that was set by the June contract (blue), now in...
High Prices and Labor‑Intensive Builds Fuel Cost Spiral
And lower construction In coastal cities (and mountain towns) construction costs are higher because housing prices are currently high ... and site-built construction method is labor intensive It's a vicious cycle
GCC May Leverage Insecurity for Cheap US Funding
Very much agree and it wouldn't totally surprise me if the GCC countries are trying to play on that insecurity to get a bit of cheap funding from the US ...
Dallas Fed Warns Inflation May Stay Above Target Longer
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan explains her dissent, which objected to suggesting that the next rate move is more likely than not to be a cut: "I am increasingly concerned about how long it will take inflation to return all the...
Oil Market Will Need 2.7 MMbpd Surplus Post‑Hormuz
We're actually really going to *need* a supply glut after this end to fill in the hole left by Hormuz. Minimum 1 billion barrels lost, requires an *annual* surplus of 2.7 MMbpd to recover. And that assumes Hormuz reopens today, which it...
S&P 500's Biggest Rally Since 2020 Fueled by Dip
The $SPX posted its biggest monthly rally since November 2020 - and it only took the largest monthly dip in 12 months to charge it and the word 'ceasefire' to trigger the reversal. Risk appetite is just ambivalent, it feels...
Takaichi's Low‑Rate Push Risks JGBs, Only Hikes Cure
Takaichi wants to intervene in markets to mitigate inflation, but keep rates low to support her agenda. JGBs will suffer until she realizes hiking rates is the only way to durably keep inflation in check and support JPY. Bank lending has...
Four Tech Titans Now Outvalue Pre‑Crisis US Market
Coming out of the Great Financial Crisis the entire US stock market was worth around $10 trillion Today the combined market cap of Nvidia, Google, Microsoft and Apple alone is almost $17 trillion https://t.co/O7WiUFZbRp
Snowflake Gaps up, Holds Above 10/21 Moving Average
$SNOW with a small gap up and back over 10/21ma's daily. Still own it here
U.S. Treasury Can't Afford Gulf Family Oil Bailouts
The US Treasury is too poor (and has too few reserves) to bailout -- or even provide a swap to -- the very rich Gulf family oil and investment businesses ... With @StephenPaduano https://t.co/Wz3bR4fXlH
Target $7.50 Profit on May 1 Call Spread
$TWLO "Trade Idea 2: Buy the May 1 Expiry 145/152.50 Call Spread ($3.00) and sell the May 1 Expiry 128 Put for 20 cents." puts expire, sell top close call spread near $7.50
Sell May 1 $257.5/$282.5 Strangle for $2.15 Credit
$AAPL "Trade Idea 4: Sell the May 1 Expiry 257.50/282.50 Strangle for a $2.15 credit." puts expire, calls on the edge, may need to roll up and out. can buy to close after IV falls
Meeting Maurine Haver Before Oil Price Blockade Talk
This is me with Maurine Haver at the Cornell Club yesterday before I’m about to present on oil prices and the Iran blockade to the Forecasters Club of NY. Maurine built Haver Analytics from scratch and is one of the...
Geopolitical Turmoil Directly Raises UK/EU Household Energy Bills
Me in FT today: “Given that around 80 per cent of UK and European energy still comes from fossil fuels and a large share of that is imported, every geopolitical shock becomes a household bill shock.” More below. https://t.co/qH7tYyZDBT
Younger Buyers Prefer Smaller Townhouse-Style Homes
This is literally the real estate thesis of @americanhousing ... The way to deliver what these younger Americans want is to build new, nice, and most importantly **smaller** single family product in neighborhoods where they want to live. Like townhouses....
Meta's $96B Bond Demand Amid 8.6% Stock Drop
fun when bond and stock investors say different things Meta fielded $96 billion in orders for its $25 billion bond sale yesterday as shares sold off by 8.6% post-earnings https://t.co/gYzRG1K7Mr
Markets Thrive While Sentiment Falters and Rates Rise
How c/#SP500 be near all-time high but consumer sentiment near all-time lows? How c/#realestate keep rising despite higher #interestrates? Digging into why that is w/#BarryRitholz #CRE #JonathanMiller #mortgage https://t.co/DD3PjMWqhj https://t.co/9brss3I1U7
War Sparks Massive Commodity Surge, Stocks Rise, Volatility Falls
Since the start of the Iran war... Jet Fuel: +80% Sulfur: +68% Heating Oil: +56% WTI Crude Oil: +55% Brent Crude Oil: +52% Diesel: +48% Gasoline: +47% Urea: +47% European Nat Gas: +44% Fertilizer: +23% Coal: +13% Palm Oil: +13% Iron Ore: +8% Wheat: +6% S&P 500: +5% $VIX: -15%
Housing Prices Slip Below 2022 Peaks, Rent Gap Widens
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.6% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 9.9% below 2022 peak https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-26
S&P Breaks Out After 6‑8‑Month Stagnation
$SPY - Sure...the S&P moved fast off the lows...but it's also just now resolving a 6-8 month range of nothingness. https://t.co/Ve4gwxbkrC
Explore 19th‑Century Railway Bond Boom in New Podcast
If you’re interested in a sneak preview of my upcoming book A FABULOUS DEBT, we recorded a whole podcast on one of the chapters — the stupendously large 19th railway bond boom, the Panic of 1873 and the fall of...
Patience Beats Hype: Buy Low, Hold Long
It’s tempting to buy stocks that are pumping right now. But ask yourself first: Are you swing trading? Are you planning to sell soon for a quick gain? If not, chasing pumps usually ends badly. My biggest winners (5–20x) weren’t bought during hype. I bought...
ROG's Cooling Chip Pivot Sparks Interest Despite Boring Valuation
$ROG is a boring stock that @GeoInvesting started watching a few days ago, due to strong Q1 EPS. It’s not cheap. But the move to explore adapting Co. solutions to “cooling chip” data center solutions is interesting, especially given $NVDA...
Nintendo Valuation a Steal Despite Rising Memory Costs
50% off its highs, 40% below Switch 2 release levels, and back to 2020 levels? Here's why $NTDOY's valuation looks like a steal, even with rising memory costs (link in bio).
SPX/Gold Ratio Likely Keeps Falling Through 2026
SPX/Gold Trend Is Down; Can It Continue in 2026? The S&P 500 in gold ounces breached 2.0 support in 2024, and the next big driver may be the SPX. At 1.58 on April 31, the SPX/gold ratio has bounced from 1.29...
Bloom $BE: Unmatched Growth Leader in Market
I will reiterate what I said in early 2025, Bloom $BE is the greatest growth story in the entire market and there really is not a close second Just read the latest call, they are firing on all cylinders (but...
SPX Futures Surge 8 Points After New ATH
$SPX futures +8 after tagging a new ATH at 7219, as it’s been riding the 8-day since reclaiming the moving averages in early April. There was a lot to do across timeframes, and now we start a new month. https://t.co/tGRY36Jv0v
Kashkari Urges Fed to Keep Policy Flexible Amid Iran War
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: "Why I dissented" He says the policy statement should signal the next rate move could be a cut or a hike given the broader range of outcomes from the Iran war. He lays out two modalities: a...
Yesterday's Movers: Performance Snapshot of Top Reporters
This is how the stocks of the reporting companies performed yesterday: $MSFT $AMZN $META $GOOGL $QCOM $CMG $CVNA $F $KLAC $ORLY $LLY $CAT $MA $MRK $MO $RCL $BMY $CROX $COP $W https://t.co/zNGAzreeBv
Conviction, Not Ego: Buffett's Guide to Focused Investing
Buffett doesn't say "diversify everything." He says don't test the river's depth with both feet. There's a difference between a concentrated bet and a reckless one. One is conviction. The other is ego.
Apple's Strong Earnings Boost Mega Caps, Manufacturing Data Next
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – May 1, 2026 🚨 Manufacturing data + a big $AAPL earnings reaction headline the open 👀 🗓️ Economic Events: 0945 - S&P Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Exp 54; Prior 54 1000 - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Exp 53.2; Prior 52.7 📈...
BOJ's Massive Yen Intervention Yields Little Effect
From our latest @ForwardGuidance…”throwing good money after bad”… BOJ intervention >2x the size of recent Yen purchases with minimal impact. https://t.co/Unck13wfjJ
Ignore OPEC+ Rumors; Follow UAE’s Clear Official Stance
💠The sheer volume of nonsense being published about the UAE’s exit from OPEC+ and its supposed impact on the oil market is astounding. 💠The UAE’s official statements are crystal clear. Stick to them and pay close attention to the details. 💠Want to...
Alphabet Nears Top Spot, Closing on Nvidia
$GOOGL a few percentage points from overtaking $NVDA as the world's most valuable company @augurinfinity https://t.co/FYDdXsHxrP
Estée Lauder Posts 40% EPS Surge, Beats Estimates
$EL: nice results this morning w 40% EPS growth and net sales up 5% with GM beat and up 140bps y/y. China g USD and $1B in sales in Asia Pacific. Raised estimates. Beauty Reimagined strategy taking hold.
Dollar Softens as Markets Await US Leadership
May Day: Market Looks for US Leadership: In holiday-thinned markets, the dollar is mostly softer as North American leadership is awaited. In light of yesterday’s surge in the yen, and contrary to our expectation, it does appear that Japanese officials…...