Latin America Leads Rebound, Outperforming US Stocks
One of the more important developments over the past few weeks has been the resilience of LatAm’s outperformance relative to US equities. These markets didn’t just hold up well during the selloff — they remained remarkably firm. And in the rebound, they’ve taken the lead, outperforming on both an absolute and relative basis. To me, this looks like a strategic rotation of capital as we move closer to a potential inflection point in the cycle. https://t.co/0ke3AsjhcP
Current RSI Mirrors 2016 Rally, Preceding Years of Gains
RE: 2016 RSI - Rally in Nov of 2016 had similar RSI to now. It went on to go higher for every single month until 2018 with exception to March 2017, -0.30% https://t.co/TdS8DBKMtR
Koala Bought
Cant believe the koala decided “oh buy some now ahead of 2H inflection, it’ll be a nice trade rest of the year” a few weeks ago instead of just sizing up other gold names in the book https://t.co/nGhHQcCfEv
Trust Deficit Drives Fragmented, Fluid Global Supply Chains
World order and trade. What are they when trust is lacking? When countries look at their needs against that backdrop? Risk not resilience will be key. Fragmentation. Supply chains must have manageable, dynamic fluidity. 2nd and 3rd orders will be...
This Week’s Market Outlook: SPY, IWM, QQQ, TLT, GLD
What to expect from the stock market this week https://t.co/ED0eV0SFkz $SPY $IWM $QQQ $TLT $GLD and more https://t.co/K3PhHcpXfk
Radcom's Strong Fundamentals Tested by Activist Push
Feels we might be in for some interesting times at Radcom $RDCM. Activists popping up left and right. Lynrock Lake is at ~20% and has been pushing for a strategic review (clearly a sale). Value Base (5.4%) looking to clean...
Doubt the P/E? Go All‑In, It Pays
Reliable contrarian indicator: When replies to my S&P 500 P/E ratio charts are littered with doubts about the "E"... go ALL IN stocks... ...worked again at the bottom of the Iran War correction.
Iranian Navy Closes Strait, Reports Gunfire Amid Peace Talks
Iran's Navy Tells Ships Strait of Hormuz Shut Again, Two Vessels Report Gunfire. Will there be a negotiated peace? https://t.co/SmiW8IKxcq
Emotional Stability Beats IQ in Investing Success
“If you’ve got a 150 IQ and you’re in my business, go sell 20 or 30 points to somebody else because you really don’t need it. You need emotional stability. You need to be able to detach yourself from fear...
US Equity Market Stays Upward, Not Looking Down
“Looking through”, “looking beyond”, one way or another the US equity market is not looking down. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/0qop5Uo3Zt
Small, Mid, and International Stocks Validate Record SPX
But small caps, mid-caps, and ex-US all confirm the record-high weekly SPX close... not bad, right?
Winter Oil's -5% Slide Is a Significant Move
Heard some folks assert that later-dated oil wasn't down as much as the prompt. Well, of course.. you'll almost NEVER see 6-month and beyond contracts change as much as the front month. In reality, -5% on winter oil is a large move....
S&P 500 Typically Hits Bottom 15 Days Post‑crisis
Wow, this played out like a charm... Historically, the S&P 500 bottoms 15 trading days after a geopolitical event begins, DB. @soberlook I took some chartistic liberty with the Iran War price update... https://t.co/J5VDwJc2MK
Predicting S&P Bottom: Hate Fades, 13-Day Rally
The day the S&P 500 bottomed l shared why a bear market wasn't likely. The hate this received was so extreme. Record 13 day rally since then. :)
Current Dip Still Shy of Historic Median Drawdown
The median midterm year drawdown is 15.6% .. S&P 500 1950-2022 Well, we got to -9.1% on the daily chart https://t.co/3tQDvp8ipA
Family Meals Under $100 with Simple Staples
Celsius, gogurt and coffee creamer are not food and definitely not essential items for feed a family. She could have gotten all of this for < $100 -Eggs -Milk -Beans -Rice -Lentils -Oatmeal -Potatoes -Greek yogurt -Bananas -Oranges -Grapes -Off brand detergent -Cheese sticks
Top Global Country ETFs Ranked by YTD Performance
here are the top global country ETFs on my list, sorted by YTD % change: https://t.co/vz4eyxUvpW
Tariffs on Canada, Mexico Illogical in Hyper‑Globalized Trade
1/3 Putting tariffs on Canada and Mexico makes no sense at all, even though they run trade surpluses with the US. That's because in a hyper-globalized world, trade imbalances are always resolved systemically, never bilaterally. https://t.co/M382OjWzJ2
S&P 500 Holding Above 6950 Boosts Bullish Outlook
Keep it simple. If the S&P500 finds acceptance up here and can digest over 6950, life is good for the bulls. In this week's video we discuss trading process and ideas for next week: Watch here: https://t.co/cgrxAd7Tzt $SPY $QQQ $SPX $VIX $IBIT...
US Extended Market ETF VXF Gains Record 12.4%
And, along with SPX and ACWX, the US Extended Market ETF $VXF (all US stocks not in the S&P 500) also tallied a record yesterday @stockcharts +12.4% last 3 weeks @michaelsantoli https://t.co/kYignTZhOc
International Stocks Surge 12.3% in Three Weeks
Oh, international stocks printed a record weekly close yesterday too.. didn't even notice.. $ACWX Best 3-week thrust since 2020 +12.3% https://t.co/3ithcwEVPp
Home Sales Steady; No Waiting Crowd, Life Moves On
There have been nearly 5,000,000 total home sales every year since 2023. The idea that a large group of people is waiting isn’t supported by the data; the peak in the last decade was near 6,000,000. Every day, you get...
S&P 500 Defies Doom, Posts 4.5% Bullish Surge
Remember all the Weekend Wall Street, IG, and Hyperliquid doom-quoting last weekend? Yeah, the S&P 500 went on to have one of its best weeks of the bull market. $SPY +4.52% Record high, negating the bearish rounded-top pattern.. completing a bullish...
Nvidia Dwarfs Entire German DAX in Market Value
Good Morning from Germany, where the country’s 40 biggest listed comps, known as the Dax, are worth less combined than the five largest companies in the US. Nvidia alone, valued at $4.9tn, is more than twice as large as all...
GS Morgan Reports Record 5‑Day US Equity Buying Surge
"We've witnessed the largest 5d stretch of buying of US equities on record. Our latest positioning estimate is long $16bn (this has gotten as high as $74bn). Still wood to chop but imagine the pace is less violent." -GS Morgan
2026 EPS Forecasts Break From Consensus Revision Trend
GS: 2026 EPS estimates have diverged from the typical path of consensus estimate revisions https://t.co/4CP8mSU3mS
Zenas Insiders Add; Strong Revenue Growth and Solid Cash
Zenas $ZBIO insiders just keep adding. Revenues are expected to grow strongly over the next few years, and the company’s cash position seems to provide a comfortable runway. https://t.co/FlC1pJiytz
Iran Tightens Hormuz, US Blockade Stalls Peace Prospects
Iran reimposed Strait of Hormuz restrictions as US continues blockade of Iran ports. Are there peace negotiations while this happens? Is either side meaningful when it comes to peace? And the global economy?
AMD Overbought Now,
I agree with the short term overbought $AMD See the red with depress cm William vix. However the CPU Agentic AI shuffled from memory will be happening soon. How long can profit trader sell? That’s the curiosity question.
Energy Index Surges 45% YTD, Still Trails Gold
Has the Gold Stud vs. Energy Dud Pattern Changed? The Bloomberg Energy Spot Subindex (BCOMENSP) has been robust year to date, gaining about 45%, getting it to breakeven from 2005. Will the Iran war sustain higher prices, or follow the pattern...
Bad Data, Past Bias, and Complexity Betray Models
Three reasons your perfect model is lying to you: 1️⃣ Garbage in, garbage out. Precise math on bad assumptions is just fast wrongness. 2️⃣ Models optimize for the past. Markets punish you in the future. 3️⃣ Complexity is confidence cosplay. Simple + honest...
Banks Promise Difference, Offer No Real Guidance
$4.2 million. Sitting in UOB savings account for 7 months. The family sold the landed property. 4 banks rang him in the same month. Every pitch opened with "we are different". None of them told him what to do on Monday morning. Here...
Markets May Correct After Record Rally Amid Optimism
Week Ahead: Dollar and Stocks Due for Corrections?: Progress in US-Iran negotiations and a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon fed investor optimism. The US S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new record highs, with multi-week rallies in tow. June WTI tumbled…...
Nasdaq 100 and Mid‑Cap Index Reach Record Highs
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) just hit new all-time highs, but so did the Nasdaq's stocks 101-200 (QQQJ) https://t.co/UmZJp1lT0x
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID Shock Levels
The past 7 weeks of conflict have seen capital outflows from EM that were almost as bad as during COVID, which was a massive shock. I'll talk about this and where we are on the Strait of Hormuz (is it...
US Rally and Dollar Slide Likely to Reverse Next Week
New weekly commentary: US stock rally looks overdone in the near-term and so does the dollar's sell-off. Both could correct next week. News from Middle East may not be as unambiguous as social media posts suggest....
Brent Dips Below $100 as Hormuz Conflict Wanes
Dated Brent (white) yesterday fell below $100 for the first time in over a month. There's conflicting headlines on the Strait of Hormuz, but the direction of travel is clear: this war is basically over. Both sides - for different...
Momentum, Not Fundamentals, Drives Trade Timing
On 3/30 I was covering all equity shorts. SPX was 6320 Momentum was bearish Positioning was being deleveraged Analyst earnings expectations were still for YoY 17% EPS growth But because markets expect that growth to disappoint multiples had fallen to 20x which...
TradesViz Turns Options Journaling Into Pro‑Level Automation
Options traders: If you are still trying to track your spreads, wheels, and iron condors in a clunky spreadsheet, you are playing with fire. 🔥 TradesViz just solidified itself as the best journal for options traders with the Command Center: https://t.co/AvQNbsK4Rm ✅...
Capital Flow, Not Demand, Drives Gurgaon Real Estate Prices
How prices actually move across Gurgaon’s real estate cycle (2010–2025) Most people think prices move because of demand. That’s incomplete. Prices move because of where capital is flowing in the cycle. Before we start — how to read this chart: • X-axis = Market cycle phase...
Seeking Hidden Gems: Misunderstood, High Upside, Low Ownership
Hey @grok Which company today has the strongest combination of: misunderstood business model exponential upside low institutional ownership Name 3 candidates.
Iran Vows to Keep Hormuz Closed Amid US Port Blockade
Iran has rowed back on its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it would continue to block transit through the hugely important waterway as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.
Modeling Prices Sparked Quantitative Revolution Behind Medallion
“There must be a way to model the price. There must be a way to model the movement of stocks." — Jim Simons Simons reportedly said this to his partner, Jim Ax, during the early days of Monemetrics (the precursor to...
Buffett Follows Fundamentals, Not Market Hype
Warren Buffett was a trend follower, he just followed the fundamental trends of a company’s value.
S&P Overbought Fast, Echoes 1982 Volcker Rate Cut
The only other time the S&P 500 index was this overbought faster, was when Paul Volcker cut interest rates from 13% in 1982. https://t.co/1XBzNmG5BV
Emerging Markets' Nonfinancial FX Debt Stays Under 20% GDP
What is remarkable is that the nonfinancial sector foreign exchange debt is below 20% of GDP and around 10% of total debt, down from the levels of around 40-60% for most of the emerging markets. https://t.co/p334pC8XRt
17 Stocks Hit All‑Time Highs, Momentum Surge
ALL-TIME HIGH BREAKOUT ALERT These 17 stocks closed above their lifetime highs, signaling strong momentum and sustained buying interest: 🔥BSE 🔥NALCO 🔥Lloyds Metal 🔥Adani Power 🔥Man Industries 🔥Aditya Infotech 🔥Precision Wires 🔥Nippon Life AMC 🔥Belrise Industries 🔥Aeroflex Industries 🔥TD Power Systems...
Netflix Rebounds Post‑earnings, No Dramatic Loss
I keep pointing out the fact around the headline walloping Netflix is said to have taken after its quarterly. It brought the stock price back to when it was 2 weeks before the quarter was announced. Netflix stock often goes...
Physical vs Financial Oil: Why Prices Diverge Globally
WEEKEND READ: What is the price of oil — the real one? My attempt to shed light into the PHYSICAL and FINANCIAL oil markets, and why you can pick up a barrel of crude for $78 in Kansas or $286 in...
Agents Will Turn AI Into Intuitive Investment Assistants
Someone used the metaphor to me this week that chatbot LLMs are like a calculator, good at generating answers to specific questions, but you have to remember to use them. The cognitive burden of pulling your prompt off the...