Current Labor Market, Mortgage Rates, and Housing Demand Overview
It's #jobs Friday. In today's podcast, we preview the current labor market, mortgage rates, and inflation. We also discuss the recent #housing demand data. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Turkey's Self‑imposed Dollar Peg Drains FX Reserves
Across all EMs, Turkey has seen by far the biggest drop in official FX reserves. That's an entirely self-inflicted wound and reflects the decision to keep the Lira pegged to the Dollar through a shock where it should obviously have...
Average S&P Stock Hits All‑Time High, Up 8%
“The average stock in the S&P is struggling.” Checks notes. The average stock in the S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high and is up another 8% this quarter alone. https://t.co/XdT6CNDY9m
Apple’s AI Push Justifies $400 Price Target
We are raising our price target to $400 reflecting this new AI age coming to Apple that will enable Cupertino to finally get into the AI Revolution as we estimate roughly 20% of the world's population will access AI through...
Oil Prices May Drop, Debt Burden Continues Rising
At some point, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and oil prices will fall back to pre-war levels. But the latest rise in long-term yields won't get reversed. Every shock that happens permanently ratchets up global fiscal stress. A one-way...
Active US Equity Exposure Hits Highest Since January
Active manager exposure to US equities continues to creep higher, now at its highest since the first week of January.
Trump Says U.S. Oil Exports Need No Restrictions
President Donald Trump said there’s no need for any US export restrictions on oil or jet fuel to address US price increases sparked by the war with Iran. “We don’t need them,” he told reporters Thursday in Washington. “And we have...
Broad Market Gains, Oil and Bitcoin ETF Slip
$SPY +0.4% $QQQ +0.6% $SMH +1.3% $EEM +0.7% $IWM +0.3% $TLT +0.3% $USO -1.0% $GLD +0.2% $IBIT -0.5% @finviz_com https://t.co/7LAW5uQ5Ur
Long-Term Success Demands Short-Term Humility
To be right in the long-term, you must be willing to look wrong in the short-term.
Free Guide to Master 6 Fibonacci Patterns
Here’s a link below to a FREE Fibonacci Trading Strategy Guide (ebook): 📈📉 Learn the 6 Fibonacci Pattern Types that Create the Most Precise Price Levels, Targets, and Reversal Zones for traders. Click here: 👇 https://t.co/AXA7xH9yWB FREE today courtesy of: @StockChartPros https://t.co/59KTpmSqwq
Small Chinese Banks Squeezed by Real‑estate Exposure, Limiting Credit
1/2 Good Caixin article on the acute problems faced by Chinese banks as they are forced to pile into real estate assets that backed defaulted property loans: "The problem is most acute for smaller lenders", draining their capacity to lend to...
China’s City Stimulus May Bottom Top‑tier Housing Markets
China Daily: "A new wave of stimulus policies launched in the past week by key Chinese cities, including Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Wuhan, is expected to lower homebuying costs and boost market confidence, paving the way for the housing market...
RMV Holds Guidance Amid AI Fears, Dividend Rises
#RMV "in line" and reiterates FY guidance. ShareScope has fwd p/e 14 falling to 12.7 and fwd Divvy 2.7% rising to 2.9%; I guess this has been mainly hit by AI fears but it remains the portal of choice for...
Indonesia Stocks Tumble 2.9% Overnight, Short Positions Held
INDONESIA: stocks smoked for another -2.9% loss overnight and we remain short of them https://t.co/phrY7BQxit
India Short Drops 0.7%, Outperforms China Longs
INDIA: our biggest Country Short was down -0.7% overnight and has been a great short relative to Country Longs like China https://t.co/SElzQfM9dG
South Korea's Market Surges to New All‑Time High
SOUTH KOREA: unlike in the US, no correction overnight = another epic all-time high = #Quad2 https://t.co/TUuVV2sRGu
Accelerating Africa’s Energy Access Through Green Finance Partnerships
Together with @ONU_CIV Resident Coordinator and @FemiAkinyelure, I met @AfDBPresident to discuss accelerating #energyaccess across #Africa. We also discussed #Mission300 as well as fostering green industrialisation and innovative finance models to achieve development at scale. https://t.co/WnEE80ghZo
Prioritize Consumer Surplus When Valuing Consumer Companies
Great discussion on how to look at consumer companies. Consumer surplus should be the focus. https://t.co/KhD3hQQJJK
Rising Spreads, Falling
US Corporate Spread "risk" is the inverse of Profit Growth - we remain long High Yield https://t.co/IbOVfjy8fw
Hormuz Closure Could Add 0.6% to 2026 Inflation
Even under a cautiously optimistic scenario in which the closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for 1 quarter, the surge in oil prices is expected to raise US headline inflation by 0.6 percentage points and core inflation by 0.2...
China Curbs Demand as US Supply Stalls, Reshaping Oil Market
Supply and demand determine the oil price. If the Americans can't boost supply to keep prices low, then the Chinese know how to dampen demand. Superb insights in here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-05-08/iran-war-china-s-invisible-hand-is-rebalancing-the-oil-market
China’s Covert Oil Import Cuts Cap Prices, Flatten Differentials
COLUMN: China is quietly slashing oil imports, an invisible hand that's rebalancing the market in the middle of the Hormuz closure. (The shift has not only capped benchmark oil prices, but also triggered a collapse in physical differentials) @Opinion https://t.co/GND1uXtbwV
Buying Illiquid Japanese Stock Because It's Extremely Cheap
I’m the same camp as Altay re Solekia $9867 I would normally never hold such an illiquid small Japanese company. But it’s just too damn cheap. https://t.co/YIZjjOpfF2
Management‑Backed BUC Purchase Targets 7.2p Upside
Bought some #BUC in the placing at 1.5p. Management are very large holders and added in this placing. Allenby fair value price target is 7.2p.
Sell Calls, Buy VIX: Counterintuitive Yet Viable Trade
thinking aloud... correlations already in the toilet. for vol to fall singles vol needs to fall we are in spot up vol up in singles so if you sell singles calls and buy VIX, it's logical rel value trade but sounds like suicide....
Taiwan's Energy Crisis Fueled by Costly Spot LNG
Taiwan is spending its way out of an energy crisis 🇹🇼💰 The country received 35% of its LNG from Qatar/UAE last year. All of that supply is now being replaced by more expensive shipments from the spot market
ARVIND Approaches Breakout: Watch for Rounding Pattern
Stock to watch #ARVIND - ARVIND trading near breakout zone - Rounding pattern Keep it in your watchlist for a potential trading opportunity 👀🚀 #Nifty #Nifty50 #SmallCap #Largecap #Midcap #Sensex
Strong Free Cash Flow Fundamentals Boost Gold, Silver Miners
Fundamentals for increasing free cash flow so good for gold and silver miners. $gdx $sil https://t.co/zgUAI5BVoi
Peso Rebounds as Oil Prices Tumble
Big reversal in FX markets this week. Philippine Peso outperforms after hitting new lows week prior. Helps that oil's off highs a lot https://t.co/7lfET7ggd4
Revenue Rises, Profit Plummets as Wine Tourism Hits 100 Cr
Sula Vineyards reported Q4FY26 revenue of INR 142.56 crore, up 7.1% YoY, with Wine Tourism crossing INR 100 crore annually for the first time. FY26 consolidated net profit fell to INR 25.65 crore from INR 70.20 crore in FY25, impacted...
Banks Fund Real Estate, Not Stocks, Crypto, or 401k
The bank will lend you $240,000 to buy a rental property. They will not lend you $240,000 to buy stocks. They will not lend you $240,000 to buy crypto. They will not lend you $240,000 to fund your 401k. Only real estate.
PJM Admits Capacity Price Surge, Calls for Market Overhaul
PJM just cried "Uncle". They admit that capacity prices are up 1,000%+ in two auctions and that money goes to existing generators, doesn't send a signal to build new on 3 year contracts. The prescription is pretty bold. They aren't...
MUEL's $15.4M Tender Offer Signals Massive Expansion
Man, @GeoInvesting model portfolio holding, $MUEL is a beast. Another freaking tender offer... $15.4M at $440 per share, following 3 since 2024 ($80 $250 $485). Can't recall seeing anything like this. Look forward to capcity expansions contributing soon. https://t.co/1X2Mu265Gm https://t.co/wTYuZi6mli
Mocking Jeff: Buy Gold, Short The
So Jeff. Just buy gold and short the dollar bro. Cuz you have lost your mind https://t.co/N6gmcw3inN
All‑Mode Freight Earnings Ranked by Bullish Sentiment
We've accumulated earnings call reports from 73 freight-related companies to track major trends, sentiment, common concerns, and quotes about the freight market, across every major mode: Truckload LTL 3PL Rail Parcel Managed Trans Telematics and Tech Payments and Factoring Rail Car Leasing OEMs Warehousing Container...
ESS Shifts to Long‑Duration Energy, Small 202
Macro: ESS pivots to long-duration Energy Base; rev -79% on ramp. Key: cost cuts, SRP/Google & DoD contracts, better adj EBITDA. Risks: runway, execution. Trade: small buy into 2027 catalyst. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Family Offices Upgrade Playbooks with Digital Assets
The difference between keeping your wealth vs watching it slip away comes down to knowing how to use it wisely. Family offices tapping into digital assets aren’t taking wild risks. What they are doing is upgrading their playbook to fit...
Self‑Storage Bubble Bursts; We're Buying Aggressively
The self storage bubble is finally popping and we are going to try to buy as much storage as we can over the next 3-5 years.
Bearish Harami Signals Overdue SMH Pullback Opportunity
A Bearish Harami candlestick pattern printed in $SMH this week(yesterday and today) ... If a healthy and overdue pullback in this sector is ever going to happen, here's the spot to do it, imho https://t.co/83usB5FgMR
China’s Imports Trail Global Trade and GDP Growth
in volume terms China's imports have lagged both global trade and China's reported GDP growth bigly https://t.co/GytLVBfdJq
Beware: Massive IPO Valuations Threaten Your 401(k)
In case you missed this - High impact on your 401K. The three big IPOs “valuation” - Spacex $1.7T , OpenAI $800B, Anthropic $400B — the great dumping ground on passive investors. Just say NO! https://t.co/u9ozqm1l29
RMR Stable, Fees Resilient—Buy Dips for FY27 Growth
RMR: operationally stable; fee‑earning AUM resilient despite incentive‑fee timing. Adjusted EBITDA steady; 72% payout coverage. Risk: fee timing/REIT sales. Trade: buy dips into FY27 fees 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Rial Rebounds Sharply From Lows Despite 10‑day Decline
The Iranian rial’s performance over the last few days: 1. Today, depreciated 0.5% against the USD. 2. Appreciated 9.1% vs. the USD from all-time lows 3 days ago. 3. In the last 10 days, depreciated 9.5% against the USD https://t.co/RcBXFmfctl
Negative Fed Model Forecasts Market Boom, Then Bust
Understanding the Fed model went negative by over 300 basis points in the 90's before the market doubled followed by everyone losing everything https://t.co/JKFm1T5RcL
Seeking Higher Lows and Higher Highs Amid Cycles
The cycle never changes: → chop → rip → rug pull → grind higher All you want is: higher lows + higher highs. https://t.co/DKs9o4i2IT
Oppose Taxing Startup Share Gains as Ordinary Income
Thanks @PaulBassat @sallyannw @bigyahu for continuing to speak up about the devastating impact of potentially taxing startup shares growth like ordinary income. Policy outcomes should always take priority over treating all assets equivalently. https://t.co/ma4v6wdWhS
Call Out China Threat, Drop “Imbalance” Rhetoric
Hauge to me and Pettis: "Don't hide behind the language of "imbalances." If you think China is a competitive threat and that wealthy nations should actively use industrial policy to keep it at bay, say so" I object to the idea...
Metallus Q1: Efficiency Gains and Market Shift Highlights
Q1 results are out for Metallus. Operational efficiency and end-market shifts are key themes in their latest earnings call. Worth checking the full deck for the breakdown. SteelMarkets
Never Average Down; Adding to Losers Kills You
Paul Tudor Jones lost 65% of his account on one cotton trade in 1979. Then he opened Tudor Investments and made 100% per year for 5 straight years. His "worst" year? Up 99.2%. In '87, he called the crash. Made $100M in a...
Santa Barbara's Proposed Fee Spike Threatens Rental Development
The Santa Barbara Planning Commission proposed doubling "affordable housing" fee on new production, such that it would cost $159,968 in fees to build a single median-sized rental unit. This is the housing policy equivalent of applying leeches to a sick...