Due Diligence, Not Promissory Notes, Protects Your Money
A word to the wise, a promissory note is not your savior. Your ability to do proeory due dilligence is. Give me a follow on IG to learn how I keep my money safe while investing aggressively.
Friday Rally Sets up Painful Monday for Under‑allocated Investors
Big week and it seems like they're gonna run it up into the Friday close. Will be very interesting to see what Monday brings. Another gap higher and the under allocated folks are really going to be feeling the pain.
Hold Only Strong Stocks Through Earnings for Profit
Holding let it rides into ER comes with risk. I did hold $NFLX let it rides and just sold a rung of the ladder made really good $. I know not as much as I would had...
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID Levels, Live Stream Tomorrow
I'm doing a live stream tomorrow morning at 9:30 am (ET) with a summary of all the chatter around this week's IMF/WB Spring meetings, including a discussion of this chart, which shows that EM outflows over the past month were...
15‑Minute Opening Range Break Profits $CAR Long
$CAR made some money back on the long side. Literally all you have to do is play a 15 minute opening range break.
Quant's 600+ SP
A quant buddy told me on the lows that we’d slingshot 600+ SPZ and NATH before the end of April. Respect given for nailing that call. You know who you are. Wish I had followed… https://t.co/c5wCz1ApXJ
Compound Interest Lets Your Earnings Grow on Themselves
Simple interest earns a flat percentage on your original deposit. $1,000 at 10% pays $100 a year, every year, unchanged. However, Compound interest earns that same 10% on your new balance each year, so your interest starts earning its own interest.
Gulf Oil Damage Means Two-Year Recovery Even if Strait Reopens
My view on @cgtnamerica on the long-term impacts of the Strait of Hormuz closure: "The fallout from the Gulf situation will cast its shadow for a while. 80 petroleum & refining facilities have been damaged. Even if the Strait opens tomorrow,...
SPX Sets Record, Bitcoin Surpasses $75k
$SPX just hit a new ALL-TIME HIGH above 7100! 📈 Meanwhile, #Bitcoin is finally clearing $75k as risk appetite returns to the tape. 🚀 I'm also answering your questions on "Coil" patterns and music theory in today's Friday MAILBAG. 📊🎶🎺 CHART...
Hormuz Closure Could Cut Global Energy, Drop GDP 10%
With Iran tensions flaring, a Strait of Hormuz shutdown could slash 10% of global energy. That means a straight 10% GDP collapse, no ifs or buts.
AVGO
$AVGO still watching 412 area in time. This name like so many needs to base . First level below is the gap. Take a look at your daily chart. No need for me to post mine
Goldman Sachs Boosts MSCI EM Target, Forecasts 10% Upside
GS: We raise our 12m MSCI EM target by ~4% to 1750, implying ~10% upside over 12 months $EEM $VWO https://t.co/Yxz4w8EPPv
North Asia EPS Upgrade Raises MSCI EM Forecast
GS: Upgrades to North Asia EPS growth push our 2026/27 MSCI EM EPS growth forecast to 34%/14% from 23%/13% https://t.co/jK4UGxp0LY
Track Normalized FCF/Share via Long‑Term Cycle Analytics
This is a great question One of the most important output metrics in any model, in my opinion, is normalized FCF/share. There are many assumptions that lead to your FCF/share metric, including revenue & normalized margin assumptions. But quarter to quarter and year...
Fannie Mae Predicts Steady 6.1% Mortgage Rates Through 2027
#NEW Fannie Mae's revised forecast expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average... 6.2% in Q3 2026 6.1% in Q4 2026 6.1% in Q1 2027 6.1% in Q2 2027 6.1% in Q3 2027 6.1% in Q4 2027 https://t.co/AhH8SZ64tC
DRAM ETF Hits $1B in 10 Days, Shattering Norms
$DRAM hitting $1B in 10 days is beyond shocking. For context, here's the 4 biggest theme ETFs and how long it took each to hit $1B: $PAVE (1,000 days), $IGF (1800 days), $GRID (3,000 days) and $AIQ (1500 days)
Stock Volatility Approaches Crude and Gold Levels
What's next? Wrong on stock market volatility catching up to crude and gold volatility so far
Markets Flip: From Losses to Gains in Weeks
YTD returns a little more than 2 weeks ago: S&P 500 -7.1% Nasdaq 100 -9.0% R2000 -2.5% Now: S&P 500 +4.4% Nasdaq 100 +5.6% R2000 +12.2% It's a strong opinions, loosely held market
Current Rally Mirrors 2015‑2016 Market Pattern
So you gotta zoom in to see the details but something about this move felt familiar I think my only real notes would be a 50 WMA test, 30+ Vix and a double digit V after a prior 90% rally....
Iran War’s End Won’t End Supply Chain Risks
Is the Iran War Almost Over? Why That Doesn't End the Supply Risks. #oatt #oott https://t.co/SUroio6mpX
AI Could Transform SNDK Into High‑Growth Memory Leader
Is $SNDK a cyclical memory stock, or will AI make memory a stable grower? $SNDK +2,838% 1Y 🚀 +234% YTD 🟢 - Weak Margins - Weak Growth since 2022 - INSANE Outlook from AI - 157% 2028 FCF CAGR - Reasonable Valuation - 1% Above Consensus Price...
Gold/Silver Ratio Boosts USD Confidence and Profit Potential
Applying the Gold/Silver ratio can be used for showing off..but also making money in bolstering confidence in USD-mkts & metals #forex $FXE $UUP $TNX $XAUUSD #XAGUSD https://t.co/sAHfIgKC1u
Turn Your Home Into a Tax-Deductible Business Asset
The Augusta Rule lets you rent your home to your business up to 14 times a year at the going market rate. That payment moves from your business bank account to your personal account and the business writes it off...
NASDAQ Gains 5% in 2026 Without Tech Giants
The NASDAQ is up over 5% in 2026. This is an index that includes tons of software companies, and doesn't include the companies that are supposedly going to devour the software companies. And yet it's still up over 5%
Microsoft Rallies, Hits R3, Returns to S2
good intraday price action in $MSFT today. S2 buying. runs to R3. return trip to S2. https://t.co/kl1ZBogVBs
Buy VIX High, Transfer Risk Low—Don’t Wait
Everybody's asking me: "When's the next VIX spike, Alex?" I called Spike 1. I've been pointing at Spike 2 for weeks. But here's the truth — don't wait for the ice cream van that doesn't turn up. Probability is high. Certainty is not. Buy...
Nasdaq 100 Forward P/E Drops Below Long‑Term Averages
This will actually blow your mind. The Nasdaq 100 Forward P/E is now ~22.4x, below its 10-year average (22.9x) and well under the 5-year average (24.7x). Trailing valuation multiples are higher, but so are earnings growth estimates.
Cattle Prices Slip $
About a 9 buck break in cattle from the highs in short order is probably about enough. Things are not as much one sided as they were from a few days ago. Equilibrium restored.
Hormuz Optimism Pushes Dated Brent Below $100
Hormuz optimism not just a "paper" market phenomenon. Backwardation coming off across the full Brent curve, and Dated Brent just fell back below $100/bbl for the first time since March 11th. https://t.co/KHm34R8Ort
Tesla, SpaceX Poised for 50/50 Merger of Equals
After further research and our discussions on the @cyberbulls with @TeslaLarry yesterday, I agree that this will very well be a Merger of Equals. BUT - in my opinion - it will not be at the then stock price, which is...
India Pays for Iranian Oil in Yuan, Bypassing Dollars
🇮🇳🇮🇷 India is settling payments for Iranian oil in Chinese yuan instead of US dollars.🤯
Yardeni Cites Three Reasons Fueling Equity Optimism
Ed Yardeni lays out three reasons for optimism on equities and explains what's bringing back enthusiasm for the tech sector. https://t.co/0YEftxPkN4
AI Threatens Tech Moats, Future Cashflow Valuations Collapse
If AI lives up to the hype, it will erode the traditional long term moats of technology companies. As a result, no one with a brain wants to pay for cashflows far in the future. These multiples cannot come back unless...
Average Returns Mislead; Index Funds Beat Most Stocks
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐦. New research from Hendrik Bessembinder argues that the standard tools, arithmetic means, Sharpe ratios, alphas, paint a misleadingly rosy picture of stock picking. Think of it like lottery tickets. The odds of winning "any prize"...
NVDA Overvalued, META Crowned 2026 Top Pick
$NVDA was obviously mispriced. $META was a Futurum Equities 2026 best idea for a reason. 🚀
Rate‑cut Odds Surge to 50% After Recent Events
Just a couple weeks the probability of another FOMC rate cut this year was down to less than 10% With some positive macro and geopolitical events over the past two weeks including the last 48 hours... the probability of another FOMC...
Oil Markets Converge as Brent Slides Below $100
It turns out that oil financial and physical markets do converge -- just not in the way that many were expecting. Dated Brent is now below $100 a barrel (from $145 last week), and physical differentials in the key pricing window...
Analyzing US Refineries and Venezuela's Post‑Maduro Oil Rebound
There's a timeline in which the Iran War never happened, the Strait of Hormuz was never closed, and I spent the past two months doing really interesting niche data work on US refineries, light-heavy crude balances, and tracking the post-Maduro...
Current Rally Mirrors 2020 Surge, Gaps and Selloff
This is interesting because the May 14-June 8, 2020 rally has a few similarities to this rally. It rallied 14.6% in 17 trading days vs. 12.5% in 13 trading days so far. In 2020 there were 4 gaps vs. 3...
S&P 500’s Rare 13%+ Rally in 13 Days Since 1928
What a remarkable run. Here is every time since 1928 when the S&P 500 rallied to a record by at least 13% (rounded) in 13 days. Don't take this too seriously. https://t.co/YlnHmYAUlZ
All S&P 500 Stocks Show Early‑trading Trends Today
This is how every stock in the S&P 500 has performed so far in today's early trading
Berkshire Gives Acquisitions Freedom, Not Just Capital
The most underrated thing Berkshire offers its acquisitions isn't capital. It's freedom. 1️⃣ No committee theatrics eating up your calendar 2️⃣ No quarterly PowerPoint ritual nobody believes in 3️⃣ No second-guessing where your excess cash goes Just: run the business. We'll handle the rest. Most investors...
Apollo CEO Sees Iran Conflict Boosting Gulf Business Confidence
What Apollo CEO Marc Rowan told me about how he’s thinking about the war in Iran: “I view what’s happening as stabilizing. I view this as ultimately good for business confidence, investment, particularly in the Gulf where I’m very bullish...
Oil Prices Plunge as Iran Confirms Hormuz Open
The physical oil market, like the futures, has had a big reaction to Iran saying the Strait of Hormuz is open. WTI Midland crude traded CIF at dated Brent plus $10.40, down a massive $6.80 from Thursday's offer. Lower offers too in...
China‑Gulf Ties Could Deepen Despite Iran‑focused U.S. Narrative
This would be quite interesting if it happens and is a reflection of why so much of the Washington chatter about how the China/Gulf story is somehow only an "Iran" story misses a lot. The story is on background and...
NIMBY Policies Block Housing Supply, Drive High Rents
We both know @Timodc, from living in places that allow new units, that a couple of penthouses are not the problem... The problem is the inability to build new units in Democrat-led cities... SF, LA and NY, it's the same...
Beating the S&P Is the Only
What people don't understand about the S&P is that every single person in the country who has money is also invested in it When your money goes up 15%, so does everyone else's You gained zero relative wealth. You need to outperform...
SPY Climbs 12.55% in 13 Days, Prediction Holds
That's now 12.55% for $SPY over the last 13 days, just like everyone thought after the bell on March 30th.
US Oil Blockade Opens Strait, Offers Ukraine Lessons
Big thanks to @biannagolodryga for having me on @CNN to talk about the US blockade of Iranian oil and its role in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Lots of lessons to learn here, especially on how the West confronts...
Euro Slides as Hike Forecasts Drop to 1.6%
FWIW, intra-day euro off its highs. Not major moves, but it appears there was an overshooting on the Iran news. Also now only 1.6 hikes expected by year-end in the eurozone, down from 2.6 on Monday src: BBG https://t.co/BogH7m2BKY