Never Average Down; Adding to Losers Kills You
Paul Tudor Jones lost 65% of his account on one cotton trade in 1979. Then he opened Tudor Investments and made 100% per year for 5 straight years. His "worst" year? Up 99.2%. In '87, he called the crash. Made $100M in a single day while the market collapsed 22%. But the one rule that changed how I trade forever? "Losers average losers." He taped it to his desk. I have it burned into my forehead. Here's why it's the most important rule in trading: Every time you add to a losing position at a worse price, the odds of that trade going further against you increase exponentially. That's not opinion. It's math. I spent years averaging down. Every time, it was a sucker bet. The moment I stopped, my risk control improved instantly. Because averaging into a loser means increasing size into a position that's already wrong. Do that long enough, you go broke. Period. It's why most prop traders blow up. Stop adding to losers. That's it. That's the edge. Thank you, PTJ. I trade this live every day, NQ, Gold, FX, on YouTube. Come watch how the "no averaging" rule plays out in real time: https://t.co/UFRUqEvyUH
Santa Barbara's Proposed Fee Spike Threatens Rental Development
The Santa Barbara Planning Commission proposed doubling "affordable housing" fee on new production, such that it would cost $159,968 in fees to build a single median-sized rental unit. This is the housing policy equivalent of applying leeches to a sick...
Meta's AI Spend Isn’t Pure Speculation, Says Analyst
Wrote up Meta's Q1. The market is treating all of the AI capex as one big speculative bet. Most of it isn't, and I think that's where the disconnect is. https://www.steadycompounding.com/investing/meta-q1-2026/
Market Punishes Strong Earnings, Proving Irrationality
Just read that Inter crushed Q1 earnings, but the market sold off anyway. Strong growth, solid profits, yet the stock gets punished. Textbook market irrationality. 📉🤷♂️ INTR
Market Rotation Overshadows Iran Tensions, Drives Losses
Thursday May 7, 2026. The records from Wednesday cracked. S&P -0.31%, Dow lost 313 points (failed 50,000 for the second day in a row), Russell 2000 -1.6%. Hormuz back in the news as US Navy destroyers and Iran traded fire...
Omada Health Hits 1M Members, Boosts Revenue 42%
@OmadaHealth just reported a milestone Q1 2026 💪 Very proud of the team for: 💡 1M+ Total Members, a first in our history 💡 Revenue +42% YoY to $78M 💡 GAAP net loss narrowed to $3M; positive Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) in our highest-cost quarter 💡...
Face the Elephant: Wealth Families Must Discuss Inheritance
“There’s something very human about avoiding a topic if it scares us. But avoiding talking about the elephant in the room does not make it any less obvious.” Tomorrow’s newsletter features Dr. Charles Eckhart, a psychologist helping ultra-wealthy families navigate inheritance,...
Trump‑Xi Summit May Rival Nixon‑Mao 1972 Historic Meeting
.@tomfriedman: “The summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing next week could be the most significant encounter between American and Chinese leaders since Richard Nixon met Mao Zedong in Beijing in 1972.” https://t.co/AATXBhthnH
China's Dip‑buying Fuels Emerging Global Gold Rush
China continues to buy the dip in gold. A global gold rush is unfolding right in front of our eyes. https://t.co/mQgTbFf90L https://t.co/QRErTYJHa9
Low P/B Doesn't
A low P/B stock isn't cheap. It's priced low. There's a difference. Book value is only as honest as the assets behind it. Write down the bad loans, the obsolete inventory, the goodwill someone overpaid for, and that "bargain" starts looking...
Tiny Brent Swing Now Just Another Thursday
Brent went from a $5/bbl decline to a $2/bbl gain today. Once upon a time that would have been a really remarkable day. Now it’s just Thursday. https://t.co/LZ2YTU2NNo
Great Thesis Beats Diversification: Concentrate Your Bets
Stan Druckenmiller on diversification "Diversification is really overrated. If you've really got a great thesis, and you've analyzed the risk reward, put all your eggs in a couple baskets, or in one basket, and then watch the basket very closely."
Russia Sells Ruble, Buys Yuan to Curb Appreciation
Since the US-Israeli war on Iran, oil prices have SURGED & so has the value of the Russian ruble. To prevent the ruble from excessive strengthening, Russia is SELLING the ruble & BUYING foreign currency, primarily the Chinese yuan. https://t.co/zThMoq7cun
Value Investing Survives Buffett; Nasdaq Set to Drop
I believe we see a headline this year or next: “Reports of Buffett’s death were NOT greatly exaggerated. But reports of the death of VALUE investing were.” I foresee Nasdaq + Mag7/10 📉 10-15% while a resurgent or new stock picker value...
Brazil Hits Record Soybean Exports, China Takes 69%
🇧🇷Brazil exported 16.7 million metric tons (615 mbu) of soybeans in April, a new all-time record. Brazil exported a record 40 mmt (1.48 bbu) in the first four months of 2026. Top destinations by share: 🇨🇳China 69% 🇪🇺EU 8% 🇹🇷Turkey 4% 🇹🇭Thailand 3% https://t.co/YKBbfHBknk
Canceling Buybacks Shifts Money From Share Demand to Real‑Economy Investment
I'm told focusing on the shift from share repurchase to capex is a "dumb argument" 101 It most certainly appears dumb if you don't understand the implication. Google cancelled its share repurchase from 60BN per year to zero to...
Korea's Stocks Surge 200% Over Past Year
If you're wondering why Korea is up 200% in the past year... via @DeutscheBank https://t.co/RzRnRQCUF2 https://t.co/dAFDIzNDQq
IREN Surges 150%, Eyes $100 with 5GW Power
Congrats to the $IREN shareholders... big day for all of us... we've been patient... and patience paid off... nice to see the investment thesis play out with some help today from $NVDA and their $2B investment... https://t.co/1pRKNoJUAZ $IREN is up...
Entrepreneurs Overlook Market Diversification for Illusory Business Gains
Why do entrepreneurs generally hate investing in the stock market? When my entrepreneur friends and I talk finances, I encourage them to diversify and put some of their money in low-cost index funds. The majority say, "But I can make more...
IREN A/H Jumps to 70 on M&A News
$IREN A/H surge to 70 from 57 on M&A news Crazy flows this week https://t.co/Tva2MuCv2d
Unusual, Concentrated Oil Volumes Precede Key Announcements, Says Onyx Founder
Reuters: "Let's stay with the facts. The volumes were highly unusual. They were concentrated. They were ahead of key announcements," said Jorge Montepeque from Onyx Capital Group, who helped design the modern system of setting oil prices at pricing agency...
S&P Hits Record High, Closes Lower Amid Stalled Talks
MARKET RECAP 📉 Today was a rollercoaster, the S&P 500 actually hit a new all-time high in the morning, but closed lower after lack of progress on U.S. and Iran negotiations. The index closed down 0.34% 🔻 What the heck is...
Iran, U.S. Mulling One‑Page Plan to Reopen Hormuz
NYT: Three senior Iranian officials say Tehran and the United States are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal. https://t.co/X7quMi0g38
Gold Bears Beware: Emerging Positive Pattern Highlighted
A lot of bears on gold it feels like, but @FrankCappelleri noted a potential positive pattern in his note this morning. 🥇 https://t.co/UXOaAOz64J
US‑Iran Peace Talks Resume as China Hosts Diplomats
The news that the U.S. and Iran are moving toward restarting peace talks came as Tehran’s foreign minister visited Beijing, throwing a spotlight on President Trump’s own coming trip to China and the pivotal role the two powers could play...
Oil Firms Can Lose Money Even at $100 per Barrel
How Oil Companies Lose Money at $100 Per Barrel Instead of massive profits, some oil companies even face bankruptcy. Energy economist Ed Hirs explains. https://youtu.be/tkY-3oUHXAY
Hawkeye360 IPO Jumps to $34
Signals-intel satelite fleet operator @hawkeye360 listed at $26 on @NYSE IPO May 7, opened at $33.80 and closed at $34 with a market cap of $3.17B. https://t.co/DDXHxVbqYD
DraftKings Keeps FY2026 Revenue and EBITDA Guidance
DraftKings maintains fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance range of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion and fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $700 million to $900 million, per Q1 earnings release
2x CRWV Surge Fuels 40% AMDL Rise
the 2x crwv being gobbled up, this tactic has had yuge wins, amdl was like 40% in an hour https://t.co/GY63g2wzgh
Contemplating Extreme SPX Bets: Calls or Puts?
Kinda feels like I should either buy the SPX 10,000 calls or the 5,000 puts. Or both.
Oil Shock Persists: Tight Global Fuel Supplies for Months
Oil Shock Far From Over: Energy Giants Warn Global Fuel Supplies May Stay Tight for Months After Iran Deal. And the longer it takes to get a deal? https://t.co/sOpjmIj1ok
Enhanced Group Launches on NYSE as $ENHA
Tomorrow marks a historic milestone: Enhanced Group - mother company of @enhanced_games - begins trading on the NYSE under the ticker $ENHA 🚀
Bear Cave Alert Triggers 50% Drop in Planet Fitness Stock
Today is a great reminder to read and support The Bear Cave newsletter As early as January 2023, The Bear Cave raised serious concerns about billing fraud, oversaturation, and consumer churn at Planet Fitness $PLNT is down ~31% today on...
100k+ $320 Apple Calls Expire Worthless in August
Nothing to see there, 100k + August $320 Calls gone off on Apple $AAPL Barron can you hear me??
Milei's Dollarization Needed to Tame Inflation
As I’ve said since day one, if Milei failed to dollarize Argentina, he wouldn’t be able to control inflation. INFLATION = MILEI’S ACHILLES' HEEL. https://t.co/Fhu9f7yOmX
Jet Fuel Crisis Exacerbated by Hoarding, Not Supply
✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️✈️ The Global Jet Fuel Crisis: It Would Have Been Mitigated Were It Not for Hoarding Daily Energy Report https://t.co/m1p26knF8S
Approach Key SPX/IWM Levels, Lock in Profits Now
Meltup Into Careful Yesterday I warned: as we near my $SPX 7425 & $IWM 290 - and $VXN is green with $QQQ - it's not time to be complacent. Big client wins in $QCOM $DOCN $IREN etc also mean time to lock...
Small XPEL Holding Hopes for a Turnaround
$XPEL is such a dog water stock. Fortunately it's a very small position but man I just want to see the stock do well again for once.
Consider RDDT as a Long‑term AI Data Leader Despite Volatility
If you’re ignoring this data pivot, you might regret it later. Day 74 of Finding High-Growth High-Conviction Stocks Is $RDDT the AI data leader you should own long term? Here’s why I’m looking at a Speculative Buy even with all the current volatility...
Patience Pays: Wait for 8-Day Swing Long Signal
Some are getting stopped out of high level swing longs. Those less active wait for the 8day
Lithia Motors' Real Profit Driver: High‑Margin Services, Not New Cars
Day 21 of 30: How $LAD Lithia Motors actually makes money Most people think it's just a traditional car dealership selling new vehicles off a lot. But new car sales are actually their lowest-margin business. Here's the real breakdown of their $9.27B in...
US Crude Stocks Plunge 8.1M Barrels; Stay Long Oil
During this past week, US crude oil inventories fell by a staggering 8.1 million barrels. STAY LONG OIL. https://t.co/JNDz5oEds3
Apple Tests All‑Time High, Then Pulls Back
Apple poking its head above the Dec 25 all-time highs, and now reversing lower, seen here on @IBDinvestors MarketSurge. The bull trend is still very much intact, but this local pivot zone is now worth watching to see how much near-term...
Hormuz Crisis Sparks Oil Shock and Market Outlook
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I'm joined by the one and only @ericnuttall to talk about the ongoing Hormuz crisis oil supply shock, how oil and gas equities are pricing the conflict, and what...
UK and Costa Rica Join CPTPP, Spreading Asian Innovation Globally
There was a time when the United States and the transatlantic West were supposed to be the rule-makers while a lot of analysts reduced Asia to being nothing more than rule-takers. Not that Costa Rica is a big economy, but...
U.S. Urea Imports Soar to Record, Russia Leads Supply
🇺🇸U.S. imports of urea, a nitrogen fertilizer heavily used in farming, hit an all-time high in March 2026. The shipments were valued at $576 million. Q1 2026 imports were up 15% on the year. Top Q1 suppliers by volume: 🇷🇺Russia 30% 🇶🇦Qatar 25% 🇴🇲Oman...
Markets Remain Calm Amid Two-Month Iran War
I had the pleasure of joining @PTertzakian & @JackieForrest on the Arc Energy Ideas podcast to talk about the shockingly calm market reaction to more than 2 months of Iran War—what I call the Sanguine Strait Stoppage. Long-time listener, first time...
AI Spending Pulls $2T Industrial Equity Into Tech Cycle
"Fifteen non-tech S&P 500 companies, collectively worth roughly $2.0 trillion in market cap, now move with semis at a daily-return correlation of 0.50 or higher. ... The implication is straightforward. If the AI cycle ever cools off, the wealth-effect drag...
Metals Lean on Stocks While Energy, Grains Revert
Normal autocorrelation in commodities vs. rising dependency. Energy and grains typically go down because they went up. Metals appear highly dependent on stocks to keep going up. https://t.co/ipBg8zbDaq
Options Predict $20 Swing; Is RocketLab Worth $45B?
RocketLab earnings 🚨 Options market is projecting a (+/-) $20 move by mid-June (per implied volatility). At a $45 billion valuation, are you buying?