Russia Needs $100 Urals Oil to Close Deficit
“Russia’s ailing economy has failed to recover even as rising oil prices during the war in the Middle East have boosted the Kremlin’s depleted coffers, according to Sweden’s military intelligence chief. Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service, told the FT that Russia would need prices for Urals crude, its main blend of oil, to remain above $100 a barrel for a year to close its budget deficit, and for significantly longer than that to smooth over its other economic problems… Nilsson said…the Russian central bank was underestimating inflation, which it believed was closer to the 15 per cent key interest rate than the official 5.86 per cent. Sweden agreed with the BND, Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, that Russia is understating its budget deficit by $30 bn, and had also noticed some financial indicators that could point to a future banking crisis, Nilsson added.” @ChristopherJM @maxseddon https://t.co/CKiUwrzvBy
Geography Drives Oil Price Gaps, Splits Asset Returns
Oil: The have and have not. What's the price of crude in North America? Very cheap, as low as 72.7. What's the price in Sri Lanka, well, very expensive. Gas is the same story. So the oil market and pricing...
S&P Hits Record as Oil Plunges Amid Iran Tensions
The S&P just hit a RECORD HIGH. Oil crashed 13% in a week. Iran says the Strait is "completely open." Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk won't send ships through. The ceasefire expires TUESDAY. And the Navy just put 5-inch gun rounds into...
Sherritt Halts Cuba Nickel-Cobalt Production, Threatening 2026 Supply
Sherritt will pause Moa nickel-cobalt mining in Cuba over fuel shortages, raising new 2026 supply concerns. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/sherritt-moa-nickel-cobalt-pause-raises.html
Doubting a Quick Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Is it time to abandon hope the Strait of Hormuz will open soon? https://t.co/5BRLiEg2Tm @ClydeCommods
Independence First, Wealth Follows Through Patience
Charlie Munger never set out to become a billionaire. He just wanted to never need permission from anyone. The money? That came from the same place the independence did — patience, compounding, and not doing dumb things. Financial freedom isn't a destination. It's...
Taiwan Fights Chip Boom to Protect Undervalued Currency
Taiwan's willingness to do absolutely anything and everything to keep the chip boom from putting pressure on the wildly undervalued Taiwan dollar is unw=matched ... 1/ https://t.co/yVjNKHd7ci
Hedge Funds Lose New Hires to ‘Gazumping’ During Gardening Leave
BIG TAKE: The hedge fund talent war has a new name: gazumping. Trader accepts a job, the firm waits months for them to finish their gardening leave and then a rival swoops in and poaches them before they ever...
Markets Clash as Ceasefire Deadline Looms
Banks crushed earnings. Oil crashed 11% in a day. Gold refused to sell off. The Nasdaq just posted its longest winning streak since 1992. Something has to give. The ceasefire expires Wednesday. https://t.co/1ewAQlpSy4
US Blockade Pressures All, Targets Iran Most
Exactly. And this is why this US blockade is genius because it means it won't be just the Iranians that will benefit when it's partially open. The pressure cooker is on for everyone equally, especially Iran.
Earn Juiced Premium Selling Options Into Earnings
Wheel strategy PSA 5 of my wheel stocks are inside the 14-day earnings window right now $HOOD - Apr 28 $SOFI - Apr 29 $LMND - Apr 29 $BBAI - Apr 29 $ZETA - Apr 30 Selling puts or covered calls on these into earnings? you're getting...
BSE F&O Volumes Plunge 19‑40%, Index Options Down 19%
BSE F&O Volumes Drop 19% to 40%, Index Options Fall 19% BSE reports significant decline in futures and options trading volumes with F&O volumes dropping 19% to 40% while index options volume also falls by 19%, indicating reduced trading activity. BSE 3,516.30 -15.20 (-0.43%)
100% Bull Markets Average About Three Years Duration
The current bull market is up 99.2%. Looking at the 7 bull markets that made it to 100%, they lasted another 3 yrs on avg (with a median of 1.8 years). Yes, things peaked soon after 100% was hit in 1980, 2007,...
New Highs or 7‑Day Streak Signal 18% Annual Gains
Two to think about 1.) S&P 500 new high in April? Full year up 18 out of 19 times and up 18.8% on avg. 2.) S&P 500 7-day win streak? Full year higher 19 out of 20 times and up (once again)...
Lumentum to Triple Revenue as Photonics Limits AI Speed
Lumentum is expected to 3x its revenue by 2028. Photonics & the speed data is transferred is the real Ai bottleneck $LITE
Check the Economic Calendar Before Every Trade
If you’re trading without knowing what news is being released, you’re setting yourself up to get caught in volatility. Premarket prep starts with the economic calendar. GDP, CPI, jobless claims… these events move gold and Nasdaq fast. News can break...
It's Never Too Late to Achieve Financial Freedom
If you financially f****cked up and now in your 30s or 40s you want to turn it around, crush your debt, learn to invest, and get your money right — I hope you find my page. Because it’s NOT too late...
Nasdaq's Fastest 40‑year Swing Fuels 12% S&P Rally
The Nasdaq just posted its fastest oversold-to-overbought swing in 40 years while oil spikes $5 on Middle East tensions. The S&P 500 is up 12% in three weeks. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/Y24djSuQYp
US Trade Rep Greer Arrives in Mexico for USMCA Review
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has landed in Mexico City for meetings tomorrow related to the USMCA review. He was received at the airport by Economy Minister @m_ebrard and undersecretary @LuisRosendo_ (Video from Mexico's economy ministry) https://t.co/iweEQKUuJO
S&P 500 CAPE Hits 40, Tops 99% Historic Levels
The S&P 500's CAPE Ratio has moved up to 40, its highest level since 2000 and now above 99% of historical valuations. $SPX https://t.co/uhUt33SCp5
AMC Secures $425M Refinancing, Extends Debt Maturities
On Friday, we consummated a highly beneficial $425 million refinancing. AMC has once again taken decisive action to strengthen our financial position by extending our debt maturities by four full years, while simultaneously reducing our annual cash interest expense. I...
Oil Spike Highlights Balance‑of‑Payments Shock Over Dollar
With oil rising again (alas), my Odd Lots episode from last week gains new relevance -- tis at least as much about the balance of payments impact of an oil shock as about the dollar https://t.co/JtgH1nPC0z
S&P 500 Rebounds From 7% Loss to +4.5% YTD
On March 30, the S&P 500 was down 7% in 2026, the 12th worst start to a year in history. After one of the biggest 3-week rallies ever, it's now up +4.5% YTD and above the average year at this...
Dollar‑Cost Averaging Beats Market Timing Every Time
Nobody can predict exact bottom or top but for 95% of the folks just DCA and keep adding. You will always win almost always. If you DCA into SPY from the beginning of year you would beat SPY itself its...
Three LNG Shipments Stalled, Pakistan Faces Heat‑driven Blackouts
There are at least *three LNG shipments* stuck in the Persian Gulf that are supposed to go to Pakistan, according to ship-tracking data 🇵🇰🚢 Pakistan hasn't received an LNG shipment in over a month due to the Hormuz closure. That risks...
Fertilizer Costs Surge 53%, Threatening Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since May 2022, rising 53% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: https://t.co/XaN1isYjSt
Russia's Upward Run Extends to Day 15
Rus going on day 15 of Extended run UP. (I have seen 28 days on one side in the past but now I am dating myself) https://t.co/i5XFxendBn
Profit Taken on MCE.AX as Deal Finalizes
Taking profits on $MCE.AX at 39c, now the deal has gone binding, spread mostly closed and most all the juice has been squeezed…was a good’un, on to the next ✊✊
Retail Is Evolving, Not Disappearing: Growth Across Sectors
Retail isn’t slowing down — it’s shifting. Grocery demand rising McDonald’s expanding again Walmart reinvesting Private equity betting on QSR Retail brands restructuring Service-based tenants growing The strongest retail isn’t disappearing — it’s evolving. Sumanjeet Singh DRE :02107827 #RetailRealEstate #NetLeaseInvestments #CommercialRealEstate #RetailInvestment #nnnproperties
US Weakens, China and Russia Gain Power Post‑War
My view on the outcome of the US-Israeli war on Iran w/ @MarioNawfal: "In the Great Geopolitical Game, one great power is going to become weaker: the United States. And two great powers are going to become stronger: China and Russia."...
MSFT Poised for Pullback Before Next $441 Push
MSFT: A Shooting Star has formed above the upper Bollinger Band, leaving two open gaps below and RSI >70. A reset is likely before another attempt to reach the $441 gap. After a stellar weekly run of +14%, a pullback...
Stocks Should Fall More Amid Straits Closure Warning
I say this with complete humility, stocks should probably be down a lot more tonight, with news the Straits are closed. June E-mini should be down >$100, but the way things are going, if I wake up tomorrow and they...
AMD Poised to Ride AI Chip Boom to $600
Bullish take on AMD: a deep-dive analysis argues the AI chip market is set to explode, and AMD's tech could drive its stock to $600. A bold, long-term vision. Investing
Iranians May Be Behind Pre‑War Crude Trades, Not Washington
Can you imagine if its actually the Iranians........ Everyone thinks it's Washington insiders trading Crude Oil right before significant price moving news connected to the war with Iran and Strait of Hormuz.
China’s Oil Stockpile Fuels Profit Amid Global Price Surge
In speaking with oil traders (and checking the data) it is clear that China went on a buyer's strike due to the ongoing high crude and LNG prices. Which means that Beijing loaded up its storage with low oil prices...
MODD's $3.4M Offer Highlights Dilution Risk, Await Cl
Macro: MODD priced 750k shares at $4.50 to raise $3.4M. Key: FDA 510(k) & Nasdaq compliance vs weak cash and repeat raises. Risk: dilution. Trade insight: wait for post-offer clarity. 📉 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Dated Brent Ticker Reveals Strong Market Vibes
The trouble with listing the BBG Dated Brent ticker is that people will chart it and see that it, too, is trading on some serious vibes https://t.co/ofq7O5OWSr
Hormuz Tensions Lock Gas Prices Through 2027
Strait of Hormuz uncertainty isn't just pushing up today's gas prices — it's lifting futures through 2027 and beyond. The energy secretary's optimism may already be outdated. Until we get resolution, expensive gas isn't going anywhere soon. https://t.co/NZ4lVvoG5p
Soy Crush Pace Signals Full-Year Grain Outlook
🌾Grain markets have many moving parts right now and it's not easy to keep up. My latest newsletters covered: ▪️U.S. soy crush and what pace says about full-year prospects ▪️Funds' under-the-radar move in CBOT corn ▪️El Nino & U.S. corn Access the full analysis...
Check Withholding Regularly to Avoid Unexpected Tax Bills
It's always smart to review your tax liability against your withholding to see if adjustments are needed. Just be careful so you don't end up with a large payment next year. via @katedore Bessent says to adjust your paycheck withholding —...
ServiceNow's Q1 Warns: Stock Demands Unrealistic Growth
ServiceNow's Q1 earnings preview sounds a caution. The bearish take? It's a great company, but the stock price demands near-perfect, sustained growth that may be unrealistic. All eyes on cRPO guidance. investing
HSAs’ Triple Tax Benefit Can Be Outweighed by HDHP Costs
Why Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) Aren’t Always Worth The ‘Triple Tax Savings’ Advantage: https://t.co/6zrY3GAuEd HSAs require individuals to be covered by a High Deductible Health Plan (HDHP), which has tradeoffs compared to traditional health insurance plans. While HDHPs are often expected to...
European Gas Futures Jump 11% Despite Lower Overall Prices
European natural gas futures rise 11% after Iran closed Hormuz (again) 📈📈 No LNG shipment has been exported from the region since the war in Iran began in late-Feb Still, prices are down from the highs last month. This is partly due...
ServiceNow Overvalued: Near‑Perfect Growth Required to Sustain Price
ServiceNow's a top company, but this analysis says its stock price is too high. It needs near-perfect growth to justify current levels. A stumble could hurt. investing
Oil Spikes 6.5% Amid Iran‑U.S. Ship Attacks
Oil prices jump 6.5% after Iran and U.S. attack ships as tensions escalate over Strait of Hormuz: https://t.co/aZcReIm6Eb
Iran's Hormuz Takeover Spikes Oil Risk, Boosts Gold Demand
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-Asia ─────── Iran seizes control of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil shipments and elevating energy market risks. US Navy intercepts and disables Iranian cargo ship Touska, prompting Tehran to vow retaliation that could spike oil prices. Iran...
Borrowing Against Assets Is Not Income, It's Debt
Borrowing against your own assets isn’t income. It’s the opposite of income since you have to pay it back with interest. Don’t believe me? Quit your job and live off a home equity loan. See how long that works for...
UAE Threatens Oil Trade Shift to Yuan over USD Shortage
UAE to Trump Administration: "You started this war; if we run short of USDs as a result of it, either you will give us USD swap lines, or we will be forced to start transacting oil and gas in CNY...
UAE Holds Strong Reserves Amid Unreported Figures, Seeks Swap Line
Interesting WSJ story about the Emirates request for a swap line -- the UAE hasn't reported its end March reserves but it went into the conflict with tons of reserves and no shortage of liquid bills in US custodians 1/ https://t.co/5Q61nzi68P
China's 11 M Bpd Crude Imports Dominated by Gulf
11 million barrels a day and most of it from the Gulf… Source: Visual Capitalist http://visualcapitalist.com/chinas-crude-oil-imports-by-country/