
CHART OF THE DAY: The cost of European CO2 allowances has fallen ~20% in recent days after several key countries asked Brussels for a reform. Italy has gone as far as asking the Emissions Trading Syste to be suspended. CO2 emissions costs have >3x over the last 5 years. https://t.co/d3eDdvhNb9

From Top Commodity Value to Stretched Speculation - Metals 2026: The Bloomberg All Metals Total Return Subindex represents the top-performing sector over time, but metals may have entered the high-price cure stage of a bull market. The highest-velocity rallies since...

$USD consolidation continues, but PBOC eliminates reserve requirements for fx forwards and makes it easier for banks to provide liquidity offshore. Stops yuan rally for the moment. Denmark calls snap election. Greens win in the UK. https://t.co/hLRGJsDgY2...
India prioritizes national security and economic growth above aggressive, ideologically driven climate policies seen in some European countries. India seeks to cut power sector coal imports by 30% this year, sources say https://t.co/bA7W0ywe6Y

The Trump administration has accused China of conducting a small nuclear test in 2020. The claim is that a seismic event was detected in Western China around that time. A lot is going on here, so let's unpack it. Full Newsletter:...
"If you look at the hard numbers, China is capital starved right now—it's the least crowded trade in the world." - Ed Grefenstette (EP.488) With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
Friday: Equity futures lower again, treasury yields down by 2-3 bps with ten-year yield dipping below 4%. Dollar softer. PPI due out today.

U.S. GAS inventories depleted much more slowly than normal for the time of year in the middle part of February, largely erasing the previous storage deficit and causing futures prices to slip below $3 per million British thermal units to...

“So the first thing I learned about how to get superior performance is not to buy stocks that are near their lows, but to buy stocks that are coming out of broad bases and beginning to make new highs.” — William...
"how China became the leader of the global south" will be a macro theme receiving tons of ink in coming years. Incidentally, this was always Mao's dream

99% of traders lose because they enter here ❌ Smart money enters here ✅ After a clean Break of Structure, price pulls back into the Fair Value Gap + Order Block. That’s where the real entry is. Not at the top of the...
Nifty goes below 25200 . Sudden fall in last 30 minutes. Friday Closing Same Action. #usirantensions #stockmarket
Be a Fly on the Wall of Wall Street’s Best Morning Process https://t.co/bh1gg4mzGh via @hedgeye

Good morning. Mixed markets around the World. $spx futures -17 $spy got rejected at $693 to break $690 to see $684 area. We’ll see if they holds, or not. Let’s end the week making the right decisions This range...
#GHH interesting Update with signs of improvement. Net Debt down a little to £28m. ShareScope has fwd p/e 16.9 falling to 14.2 and fwd Divvy 1.8% each of next 2 years, BEFORE 5% jump today. Worth considering. I don't hold.
#BBOX decent statement. Not much Discount to NAV but ShareScope showing fwd Dividend Yield 4.7% rising to 5%; several growth drivers so definitely interesting. I don't hold.
#RAT results and forward statements read well. ShareScope has fwd p/e 13.6 falling to 11.8 and fwd Divvy 4.5% rising to 4.9% BEFORE 5% jump today. Nice Dividend and starting an additional Buyback. I don't hold.

Reiterating Short #Bag7 with OCT 2025 having big echoes of Q4 1999 "Last 3 months have been the worst period to own $SPX relative to its equal weight index since 2001" @t1alpha https://t.co/AgkFgy0aqK

In line with our narrowing USD Signal, Global FX Vol continues to fade here https://t.co/sY7hmVcxe3

New World Development Interim Half Year Report ending Dec 31st, 2025: • revenues recorded a year-on-year decrease of approximately 50% to HK$8,391 million • profit recorded a year-on-year decrease of 25% to HK$5,038 million • loss attributable to shareholders amounted to...
EZ inflation still looks dovish to us for February, but upside surprises in France and Spain this morning doing doves no favours; the "in a good place" mantra to stay. Let's see what Germany's state CPIs throw at us in...

Entry model to focus on ↓ TS → CISD → IFVG → DOL • TS: Liquidity grab sets the trap. • CISD: Market shifts direction. • IFVG: Entry zone appears. • DOL: Confirms overall bias. Flow: Grab → Shift → Entry → Target
Duolingo 2026 guidance: Revenue growth and EBITDA margin a slight disappointment, but does everything to double daily active users from 50 million to 100 million. 400 million buyback program initiated ✅ Now at 10.8x EV/EBITDA $DUOL
South Korea single-stock ETFs will likely be approved by the summer, just before Interactive Brokers starts offering access https://t.co/WpRK4ten0F.

So you are telling me I should say the most sacred bank in India, HDFC Bank, and buy PSU banks with an excellent track record? - What am I not drinking that I do not get it? Investors are...

Even until yesterday, you could hear the media talking about FII flows being positive for FEB and supporting the market. I give zero credit to daily flows to decide which way the market will head. But just an update after...
China's surplus is understated after 2022, as China adjusted its BoP methodology to shade its reported surplus down -- and given China's size, its surplus is massive v the global economy (even more true using customs trade) 1/2

Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.1%/yr in January, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/7NNKGjeDXe

$BAP.ax down 48% today. Surprises tend to happen in the direction of the prevailing trend. https://t.co/8MXlffwnuZ
I’ve submitted formal comments into the docket. My core message: supply diversification alone is not enough. If we want durable investment in allied lithium production and processing, we must address price volatility. Lithium’s boom-bust cycles have repeatedly delayed capital formation and midstream...
Reuters: The U.S. International Trade Commission said on Thursday it would investigate the economic impact of revoking China’s permanent normal trade status over a six-year period, a move that would likely increase tariffs on Chinese imports. https://t.co/T0xSqrLDgN
"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is...
It seems like Korea goes through these speculative bubbles every five years or so https://t.co/jCSmYlbkaj
China Moves to Tame Yuan Rally by Slashing Shorting Costs—Chinese banks won’t be required to set aside a 20% risk reserve on forward currency trades https://t.co/myGXkMjp6X https://t.co/myGXkMjp6X
Nornickel sees nickel surplus, tighter copper after 2025, and a renewed PGM rally led by investor demand. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/nornickel-nickel-surplus-and-copper.html

The Japan Company Handbook on m-up 3661 JP… not sure whether it’s moaty enough https://t.co/Aqsud8W7VX
Block lays off nearly half the company. Stock jumps as much as 26% after hours… and still isn’t back to the January 2026 highs. $XYZ
Been traveling, catching up on earnings. $HPQ had a double beat, and for the guide made clear that costs and mix drive the next stage, not demand. • Personal Systems did the heavy lifting: $10.25B (+11% YoY) with units up...
The tariff refund issue is fun to follow. But it doesn't matter much for the macroeconomy. Business investment determined more by cost of capital than cash availability. Keynesian multiplier very low on one-time transfers to businesses. And debt impact large...
Most people overpay simply because they never get multiple quotes. Need insurance? Get multiple quotes. Need a wedding cake? Get multiple quotes. Need a plumber? Get multiple quotes. It’s the best ROI on your time. 30 minutes can save you $100+
With its index business now >50% of revenues, FnGuide is becoming a KOSPI market proxy on steroids. But I think the index AUM rising from KRW 14 trillion to 50 at 40%+ incremental margins is still underrated. I'm getting to...
Japan government to hold 10% voting rights in Rapidus but with veto power https://t.co/pU84OOzRCg via @NikkeiAsia
Nvidia said it secured a license to ship a small number of its less advanced H200 chips to customers in China, inching forward in its bid to return to the world’s largest semiconductor market Small number? https://t.co/qcOey50mOL
All of the bills we're sponsoring are great, but I'm especially excited about this one: after years of state mandates to plan and adopt policies, SB 1216 will recognize cities that are actually building housing and afford them warranted flexibiltiy/grace...

The S&P 500 is less than 2% from its all-time high. The Nasdaq 100 is down nearly 5%. The NYSE FANG Index is down 17%. Three indexes. Three very different pictures. Full breakdown with charts: https://t.co/1Skwzjqna3 https://t.co/NAO3m5uBUh
Bottom line: Netflix walked away from an expensive bidding war that wasn't prudent and in doing so, it conveniently leaves one competitor saddled with debt and two competitors burdened by a very long, distracting regulatory approval process — Investors agree. $NFLX...
Consider the everyday person's knowledge of money: When I ask them about their investments, roughly 50% do not count their 401(k) as an investment. They think of it as something totally separate
The DOJ probe of the Federal Reserve is playing out behind closed doors The Fed, in sealed proceedings, is asking a judge to quash the subpoenas, which could reduce or eliminate its obligation to respond via @cryanbarber @sgurman https://t.co/HvnC5W8ImQ

The real opportunity right now? Understanding product-level demand. Not all industrial is equal in 2026. If you’re evaluating an industrial deal in California and want a disciplined underwriting perspective, DM me “INDUSTRIAL.” #CaliforniaCRE #IndustrialInvesting #WarehouseSpace #CREStrategy #CommercialInvestor
There Are Better Things To Trade Than Nvidia also my short price targets on $NVDA https://t.co/LGkqEyi3XF