S&P 500 Missed Oversold Low; Further Dip Needed
The weekly chart below shows that the S&P 500 index stopped short of an oversold extreme at its March 30 low of 6317. We never got that juicy entry point. We’ll see how the market reacts as the headlines continue to unfold in the weeks ahead. My sense is that we need to see the 50-day moving average number in the single digits and an index closer to the pre-tariff high of 6127.
European Physical Oil Market Shows Tentative Easing, Brent Below $120
Tentative signs -- with a lot of emphasis on tentative-- of easing in the European physical oil market. Dated Brent is falling below $120, and lots of offer today on the key trading window (compared to overwhelming bids in...
Equities Rally on Hope, Valuations Still Under Pressure
Equity markets gapped higher last week on hopes that the negotiations in Pakistan would lead to some sort of détente. The week closed with an S&P 500 index at 6816, a mere 2.6% below its all-time high set on January...
20% Seed Dilution Now Standard, Up From
Most founders will sell 20-25% in a seed round right now, up from 15-20% a few years ago. Selling 20% is reasonable 99% of the time.
Amid Volatile Headlines, Revisit Your Investment Thesis
It’s getting increasingly challenging to write my WAAR these past few Sundays, given how much the headlines keep lurching back and forth. Truce one day, threats of extinction the next, and back and forth we go. My inclination these days is to...
Complacent Traders Face Inevitable Corrections, Warns Broker
Had some messages on why I am so down on the cattle. I am not, but one advantage that a broker may have is seeing when their accounts become to complacent and only see higher prices forever. Corrections...
Focus on Bounce Timing, Not Extreme Bearishness
And again, I think you learn the most on how things bounce -- never good to be crazy bearish but it's all about how/when things bounce - thin swipes back up? or rebound stays heavy. That's the only thing that...
Luxury Giants Face Structural Demand Reset
Hermes $RMS just cratered 13% at one point of today's trading session. Kering is struggling to find its footing. LVMH is struggling too. The luxury "black hole" is officially here. We aren't just seeing a soft quarter here and there;...
European Wholesale Power Stabilizes at Pre‑war Levels
European wholesale power is back to pre-war levels. Germany 1-year forward is at ~€88 per MWh, almost at par with the 2025 annual average of €87.3 per MWh. French and Great Britain power prices have given up most of the gains...
Aztec Minerals Strikes 2,676 G/T Silver, Still Undervalued
A juicy 2,676 gram-meter #silver hit for @AztecMinerals in another step-out hole at Tombstone, the footprint continuing to grow. As JV says from the tour last week, consensus from every analyst was “this stock is deeply undervalued." Buy window still...
Farmers Exploit Loopholes to Dodge FICA, Celebrate Deduction
Mr. and Mrs. Farmer, enjoying coffee on their 320-acre $15,000 per acre-value farmstead, having never paid FICA tax because they used special farmer-only tax moves to minimize taxable income, celebrate their temporary $6,000 deduction. They earned it!
Selling Pressure Sparks Fresh Intraday QQQ Highs
every instance of selling pressure today has been followed by a new intraday high. 🤔$QQQ https://t.co/nJ8Ad7tkNo
AI Infrastructure Drives Energy Demand, Sparking New Investment Theme
$ORCL up ~18% in two days. $BE surged 23% on a 2.8GW fuel cell deal with Oracle. AI infrastructure is the new arms race — and the energy required to run it is creating a second-order investment theme that most...
Friday OPEX May Disrupt Options Amid Market Rebound
While the market has rebounded from recent lows, Friday's monthly OPEX could shake up options positioning — delivering a meaningful impact to the broader market. Get the full breakdown with SpotGamma, live at 1pm ET today: https://t.co/nDCjAQLXcO
UBS Flags Crowded Longs, Calls for More Upside
UBS has $LITE and $CIEN as crowded longs. AKA consensus favorite's requiring more consensus upside/much better results over expectations to move the stock. Sort of feels like many names in optical are getting to be in a similar spot....
China’s Tech Surge Marred by Waste, Looming Stagnation
"China’s High-Tech Drive in 10 Charts" https://t.co/SZXnkg9CHZ "There have been tremendous strides, but also great waste and failures, such that China’s economic growth is likely to continue to stagnate and decline." https://t.co/hH3Gu87F81
Stock Jumps $337 to $400 in a Week
I love this stock because you can buy at $337 one week and it’s at $400 the next week https://t.co/Mz7nR8AxRu
SPY Climbs, VIX Falls, yet VIXY Rises—Who's
Just one day and it's not over - $SPY up ✅ $VIX down ✅ but VIXY up ❌ Which one of you is buying VIX futures?? 🤔 https://t.co/h1DXe2Bnxh
7 Apps That Built My 6‑Figure Portfolio
I’ve probably tested 100+ investing apps and websites over the years. Most are useless. But 7 of them actually helped me build a 6-figure portfolio in my 20s. Dropping the full breakdown video at 4:30pm CT today for YouTube subscribers.
Ignoring Insider Feedback Guarantees Fundraising Rejection
It’s rough when founders don’t listen to insiders during fundraising prep then go to raise only to find out external investors pass exactly because of the questions insiders raised. But it basically happens every single time when founders fail to do...
US Soy Crush Hits 2nd Highest March
🇺🇸NOPA U.S. crush, March 2026: ▪️226.161 mln bu of soybeans ▪️2nd highest for any month; +16% YOY ▪️Below avg trade est (229.978M) ▪️Soyoil stocks 2.039 bln lbs ▪️Below all trade estimates (avg 2.173B) ▪️Stocks at 13yr high for March https://t.co/eWZRN9BEi2
Meta-Backed CoreWeave Debt Cut Risk, Sparked Market Surge
CoreWeave's debt deal (backed by Meta's AI compute commitment) closed March 30 (SPX bottom). imho the flurry of subsequent announcements were probably linked to this. Amazing things happen when counterparty risk goes down...
Quality Small Caps Win Long-Term, Junk Rallies Occasionally
We're in a late-cycle regime where quality still dominates—but with intermittent speculative rallies. Chart shows ratio of $IWM (Russell 2000, broader, lower-quality small caps) v $VIOO (S&P 600, higher-quality, profitable small caps). → When it falls, quality small caps outperform junky small...
ECB Faces Uncertain Outcomes over Iran
Nagel says the ECB between baseline and adverse outcomes on Iran https://t.co/A2MX9mA2pD via @flacqua @jrandow https://t.co/4PwzutyUl5
OKLO’s Pipeline and Cash Boost Hope Despite Execution Risk
Someone on Reddit asked "is there any hope for $OKLO ?" It's up 9% today Quick fundamental check: - 14 GW signed customer pipeline (Switch, Meta, Equinix) - $1.23B cash with minimal debt - Board just got overhauled with nuclear/energy veterans - Pre-revenue but funded through...
Apple Climbs to $262 After BAML Upgrade
So far so good. Some were long $aapl verse $256 and others added as it cleared and held $262. BAML big upgrade (below was this morning) https://t.co/3RK1zJmCoY
Iran Conflict Signals Next Phase of Global Cycle
Most people look at wars as isolated events. I look at them as part of a Big Cycle that has repeated many times, so for me watching what is happening is like watching a movie I've seen many times before. What we’re seeing...
Equity Demand Soars; Markets Unfazed by Hormuz Blockade
Wall Street is choosing optimism. $SPY near record. $QQQ up 10 straight days. Oil falling. Gold rising. VIX at 18. The Strait of Hormuz blockade didn't break markets. That tells you more about modern equity demand than any single data...
One Belt One Road Lending Surges in 2025
Reports of the end of China’s One Belt One Road lending were very premature - 2025 was a record year for new commitments. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/KIBnk4491s
Check Your Portfolio Against Your Sleeping Point
How often do you inventory your investments to get a good idea of how invested you are, in what, your net, exposure to specific risks etc? I did this last week & found I was a bit more invested than my...
Enhanced Ltd to Debut on NYSE May, Reshaping Sports
Enhanced Ltd is expected to start trading in early May under the ticker $ENHA on the New York Stock Exchange, subject to customary closing conditions. For those of you interested in participating early: if you buy SPAC trust shares $APAD...
Option-Based ETFs Evolve: Insights From ISSB & ISBG
Moontower today is a change of pace...I reviewed 2 option-based ETFs, ISSB and ISBG, which are sub-advised by Convexitas. https://t.co/8FQPV4kgUm I learned a lot about ETFs writing this especially since there have been big changes the last few years vs when...
CF Industries Prioritizes US Farmers Over Profitable Exports
One of the big US fertilizer companies, CF Industries, has said it's "foregoing" more profitable exports, in favor of keeping nitrogen at home for US farmers this spring: https://t.co/Ch3Nd83bNR https://t.co/JwPgaISLb6
BIRD Soars 800% After Bizarre Strategy Pivot
$BIRD up 800% today on the weirdest business strategy pivot I've ever seen... my condolences to anyone that gets caught holding this bag https://t.co/FwfmPn7on8
Swing Trades Thrive; Short‑term Shorts Feel Painfully Stuck
Swings = amazing no complaints best I've done on any market correction to date (except I should have sold 0) ie: $INTC $META $SNPS $ORCL and many others (pretty much anything you bought worked didn't take skill) or like $IONQ...
Mortgage Applications Plunge; Sellers Must Slash Prices
Mortgage applications to buy a house fell again. They're back down to an index level of 159, which is more than 50% below the pandemic peak in early 2021. Not only that - they're now declining year-over-year, reversing a slight positive trend...
Bank of America Shines in Higher‑for‑longer Rate Environment
Thinking of playing higher-for-longer rates? Analysis says Bank of America ($BAC) could be a top pick due to its unique sensitivity. Strong deposit base & digital edge are key. Investing
Analyzing Iran War's Next Steps and Global Ripple Effects
Come for @RanaForoohar's take on what happens next with the Iran war. Stay for @LukeGromen's response on the far-reaching implications. https://t.co/mXUaZa7w04
Banks Beat Estimates; Future Guidance Holds Key Insight
$JPM beat by 9%. $GS, $BAC, $WFC all reporting this week. Banks are crushing estimates — but forward guidance is measured. In earnings season, what management says about the future matters more than what happened last quarter. https://t.co/d5vbf1nEBF
Pershing Square Admits Nike Turnaround Far Tougher than Anticipated
Pershing Square: "With Nike, we did not understand how much the prior CEO had really damaged the business, and how heavy the turnaround was going to be." https://t.co/YaLEkVXfp1
S&P 500 Rebounds, Ignoring War, Oil, Inflation
the s&p 500 has fully recovered to pre-iran war levels. the strait of hormuz is still effectively closed, disrupting global supply chains. oil is still near $100. inflation just hit a three-year high. the market has decided none of that...
US Petroleum Inventories Drop 9M Barrels, Crude Rally Stalls
US total commercial petroleum stocks fell by 9 million barrels last week. Crude was down by 0.9 MMbbl, gasoline by 6.3 MMbbl, and diesel by 3.2 MMbbl. Crude had been building faster than usual over the past month and appears to now...
NVMI Sees Massive ITM Call Buying, Bullish Surge
Nova Measuring (NVMI) strong Semi Equipment name sees massive trade buy 1400 August $490 ITM calls as April $420 adjust a winner from 2/18 that is +50%
Supply Gap Emerging as Last Hormuz Tankers Arrive
The tanker companies I spoke to last week confirmed that the last vessels that moved out of the Strait of Hormuz before the closure have reached their destinations at the end of March -- meaning the real supply gap is...
DGL Resumes Trading Amid Impairments and Resilient Earnings
By the way. Now that the financials are finally out (some expected impairments on non-core assets and pretty resilient earnings in tough markets), $DGL will resume trading. Let's see how they'll do tomorrow. I'm hoping on some massive tecnical selling pressure. Stink...
US Blockade Halts Iran's Oil Shipments to China, India
"The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has all but stopped Iran-controlled or dark-fleet tankers moving Iranian oil to importers mainly China and India." https://t.co/UXsjqOp2by
SE Outpaces TikTok, Valued at 7x 2028 EBITDA
$SE -45% on TikTok + margin fears looks overdone - TikTok growth is slowing and expanding the mkt more than taking share, while SE still leads in scale - Pricing is rational and reinvestment is offensive, not defensive - ~7x ’28 EBITDA with...
US Oil Production Hits Record High Amid Hormuz Blockade
CHART OF THE DAY: The barrel of last resort. US total crude oil and refined petroleum products have surged to an all-time high of >12.7 million b/d. (And further highs are likely over the next few weeks as everyone turns...
Financial Repression Exposed: BOJ Carry Trade Fuels Inequality
OUT NOW - top economists don't talk about Financial Repression (FR). That ends today. @HannoLustig on: - Bank of Japan's ~¥600 Trillion carry trade - Who hurts/benefits from FR - Inequality & Debt Crises Apple 🔊https://t.co/sn51jDcuVT Spotify📽️https://t.co/SBbM4xNOY5 1/4 https://t.co/uu9WBxzeQe
FDA Peptide Meeting Signals $100B Market Boom
I wish this FDA meeting to discuss peptides was happening a little sooner but I'm glad it's finally on the calendar so we don't have to keep guessing. Looks like they're going to start with 7 peptides (BPC-157, TB-500, KPV, Mots-C,...