NVDA's False Breakout; Watch 20‑day Support at 196
$NVDA - While the focus is on the four MAG 7s that reported yesterday, it turns out NVDA's breakout on Monday was a false breakout and it will close below the 10 day MA. The next support is the 20 day MA at 196 and it will remain bullish as long as it doesn't close below it. https://t.co/oxEvkwzX9B
Growth and P/E Misaligned, Market Def
Apple $AAPL +16% revenue growth 34 P/E Visa $V +17% revenue growth 30 P/E Johnson & Johnson $JNJ +6% revenue growth 26 P/E Coca-Cola $KO +2% revenue growth 24 P/E Exxon Mobil $XOM -1% revenue growth 23 P/E Meta $META +33% revenue growth 22 P/E A reminder that the market is not always rational.
Buyer Demand Near Record Lows; Price Cuts Needed
Homebuyer demand remained near record lows to close out April. With Reventure's buyer demand index downshifting to 9/100 this month. For comparison: a 50/100 is "normal", and the current readings are near the lowest on record. Suggesting that the spring 2026 season...
Complex Reality Beats Simplistic Gas Price Narratives
Part of why I love @sumitroy2 is he never takes simple explanations at face value: witness: 2 minute deep dive on the "hurr hurr califorinia gas prices" trope. The real world is complex. Don't let billionaires and politicians...
Gold vs Fed: Facts Over Feelings
Talking about gold and the Fed with @sonusvarghese on our latest Facts vs Feelings. 🪙 🥇 https://t.co/0u5OIKvnbL
Capex News Splits Big Tech: Alphabet Up, Meta Down
April 30, 2026. The market just split Big Tech in half. Alphabet +7% on a capex raise. Meta -9% on the same kind of news. Microsoft -5%. Amazon flat. Same headline, four different verdicts. That tells you something important —...
USDJPY Likely to Surge After Intervention Skew
Room for USDJPY to keep going. Here is some data. After an intervention, it tends to go up a bit or down a lot. Often, there is a second round of intervention and that's why the skew is this way....
Mechanical Month-End Rebalancing Signals Sell Strong, Buy Weak
Before we pop champagne, this price action feels mechanical. Clear sell-the-strong, buy-the-weak into the close of the month - likely month-end rebalancing. Need more of this in early May to trust the rotation.
10-Year Yield Near Breakout, Markets Brace for Volatility
US 10-Year Yields are approaching a crucial breakout zone—are we heading toward the final leg higher? This could trigger volatility across equities and signal a major macro shift. 👉 Read the full analysis: https://t.co/O1bdBUqOoi https://t.co/tP9WV8oG6w
Stay Long on SPX 7500; Avoid Early Exits
Taking some longs off from buying 8-MA support, but would not discount SPX 7500 in the works, so remain long biases People tend to jump off trend moves way too early in both directions
$MP Stock Poised for Move Before EPS on May 6
keep and eye on $MP the sector is strong and this one could be getting ready for a move ahead of EPS on 5/6 chart from @marketsurge https://t.co/Nooem1dHM1
ECB May Raise Rates in June If Energy Prices Hold
ECB officials see June hike if energy prices don’t ease first https://t.co/oOFKXlly37 via @Alemrome https://t.co/chZl06ltaV
Mastercard Q1 Revenue Surges 16% with Strong EPS
𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐄𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 (𝐐𝟏) 💰Revenue: $8.4B (+16% YoY) 💰EPS: $4.60 (+23% YoY) 💰Operating Margin: 60.8% 💰Net Income: $4.1B; (20% YoY) 💰Gross Dollar Volume: $2.7 trillion 💰$11.7B reaming to buy shares Stock price: $506
Ethanol Beats Gasoline by 23% After Energy Adjustment
⛽️Ethanol is much cheaper than gasoline. Even after adjusting for its lower energy content, it was 23% cheaper than gasoline as of Wednesday, the biggest gap in data back to 2007. That helps explain why demand has held up, though summer driving...
92.5M Barrel SPR Swap Part of Existing 172M Deal
On the 92.5 million barrels SPR exchange, do NOTE this a tranche that's part of the **already announced** 172 million barrels exchange (it was announced March 12). This is NOT an additional release.
Poor Man’s Covered Calls Still Profit on Rising Stocks
How Poor Man’s Covered Calls Actually Work When the Stock Goes Up #optionstrader #coveredcalls #pmcc #robinhood
We
Most people think the secret to building wealth is finding the right stock. It's not. It's starting before you feel ready. Buffett bought his first stock at 11. Not because he had it figured out — because he started. That $114 compounding...
Qualcomm Shares Surge 19% on AI‑focused Earnings Beat
.@Qualcomm stock is up 19% on earnings beat, and datacenter & AI expectations. Qualcomm CEO spoke to @jonfortt on CNBC moments ago. ‘Agent driven devices ‘ will need more CPU, says @cristianoamon, Qualcomm CEO. I will argue that we have...
TSLA, TSLL Hold Above 10‑21 MA, Eye Recent Highs
$TSLA $TSLL a bit choppy on the daily but over both the 10/21ma's Have it here and watching recent highs within the base.
Patience Pays for Tesla Swing Long Since $368
If u are still in $tsla from the RDR Monday at $368ish. Nice swing long. It’s taking patience.
US Market Loses $600B Amid Trump News, Oil Spike
🚨 BIG SELL OFF IN US MARKET 🚨 $400,000,000,000 wiped out in just 40 minutes of opening US Market. This came after $200,000,000,000 wiped out yesterday over BAD NEWS COMING FROM TRUMP. OIL price $105 raising tensions for INDIAN STOCK MARKET &...
How to Value California Governor’s Mansion Listing
How do we pull comps on the mansion that was built for the California governor? This estate is currently listed for sale, and today I have some thoughts in my weekly post. https://t.co/LymXG0FbtG https://t.co/J1HJJ1HJaT
Shin‑Etsu's Naphtha Shortage Signals Chip Supply Risk
“Japan’s largest chemical company, Shin-Etsu Chemical, has withheld its full-year forecast,citing supply constraints on naphtha-derived products due to the war. Shin-Etsu, which also makes silicon wafers for semiconductors, says it’s difficult to “reasonably predict” performance for the fiscal year. Its...
Wider Upside in LQDA Options Implies Higher Downside Risk
Looking at $LQDA option chain, with some prodding ChatGPT comes up with the following analysis. Note that the predicted distribution has to square with current stock price, and because there is a wider upside range, that requires a larger probability...
GOOGL Rebounds From S3 Dip to R2
they didn't make $GOOGL easy this morning with the late flush below S3. but eventually nice rubber band bounce from S3 to R2. https://t.co/VkRvfdgkVO
Dollar Index Slides as BOJ Warns Yen Short‑Sellers
Big dip in the dollar index [DXY] today but this is news based. BOJ threatened speculators on betting against the Yen. This may end up being a one off and we need to observe the pattern after that. 98 is...
Meta Shares Tumble 9% Amid 33% Revenue Surge
$META stock is down -9% despite growing revenues +33% y/y in the quarter We break down the quarter as well as Meta's big personalized AI bet in our new business update below 👇
Meta: High‑Quality AI Compounder at 20% Discount
Bought more $META today at 607 and 600. As much as I hate their vague answers and uncertainties around its AI spending and monetization, I cannot ignore the fact that Meta's core business is accelerating, it is one of the...
When Picks Run Dry, Dividend ETF Wins
I’m a stock picker, and that’s exactly why I respect $TDIV. When individual opportunities are scarce, a quality dividend ETF can be the smartest buy. $TDIV used to be too bank heavy for me. Now it owns many blue chip names I’d happily...
Option Market Targets SPX 7300 Amid Weak Asymmetry
And, we are going to SPX $7300 because the option market tells us so. Am I doing this right? 😉
Amazon's Free Cash Flow Could Turn Negative Next Quarter
MyPOV - Next quarter KPI to stop for @Amazon - free cash flow. Amazon never generate the cash flow like its tech competitors due to the retail nature of the business. Will they go negative like @Oracle did / has?...
CAR Stock Rebounds After Hollow Break Below 200‑MA
$CAR been a crazy name to trade and I haven't been involved. It did put in a hollow off the 200ma's yesterday and getting some bounce today.
Visa Drops Below 200-Day MA, Marks May Batt
$V Daily. Post-earnings pop, Visa back below 200-day moving average. This price level also goes back 20 months as being significant. Battleground area headed into May for Dow component https://t.co/eq2VIbxEN8
TTD Slowdown Misread; Fundamentals Remain Solid
$TTD slowdown is misunderstood - Dominant independent DSP for open internet ads - Growth slowed in '25, stock crushed - Amazon/AI fears overblown - Advertisers still need independent DSP platforms - No scaled comps ~$10B mkt cap, $1.3B net cash, ~$1B FCF Pitch by Saga Partners https://t.co/EyIxIZoKfB
Warsh Takes Fed Helm, Signals Lower Short Rates
Bonds have remained eerily quiet and continue to sit near the apex of a long triangle. With Kevin Warsh now about to take the helm of the Fed, we are about to enter what we might call the Warsh-Bessent Treasury-Fed...
Oil Prices Surge Past $120, Triggering Historic Energy Crisis
Brent crude oil has crossed $120/barrel for the first time since June 2022. The IEA is calling this the “biggest energy security threat in history.” We’re on track for the biggest oil crisis in decades.
Market Indexes Soar, Magnificent 7 Lag—Shorts?
Market cap indexes all broke to new highs but the Magnificent 7 still haven't been able to. Time to take your shot, shorts? $MAGS https://t.co/pDVSbab0i5
AI Cash Flows Downhill to Power‑heavy Infrastructure
Money is starting to flow downhill - a critical observation for the next few years. The Mags may make all the money but they are spending it faster than they can make it. Their free cash flows are cratering. Best...
27 Weekly Distributions: YieldBOOST ETFs Offer Double-Digit Returns
27 weekly distributions just dropped. Some of these YieldBOOST ETFs are paying double-digit weekly rates. Worth a look. https://t.co/GRt5SC6GPI @GraniteShares @WillRhind
Meta Beats Earnings but Spending Worries Drive Stock Down
$META's earnings response is less ambiguous. Though it also beat top line, the spending concerns were already driving the stock lower after hours last night. We start with a -7.4% gap lower on the open and we are adding to it...
Amazon's Earnings Beat Sparks Brief Surge, Then Decline
That's an interesting earnings reaction... $AMZN beat topline, which probably earned that initial 3.9% gap higher on the open, but it has reversed all of those gains and more: https://t.co/PPwVRjEAyJ
Equal‑Weight Index Beats Weighted Despite Blockbuster Mags Earnings
Blockbuster earnings from the Mags…BUT the equal weight is massively outperforming the weighted index today. 🤔
Invest Only When It Fits Your Timeline
When investing your time horizon and investments need to align. Regardless of how good a deal is, if it doesn’t fit your timeline - pass.
Futures
Futures markets suggest that trouble in the Middle East -- and higher energy prices -- will still be with us during the U.S. midterm elections in November. https://t.co/sX0oV15qiq
Global Markets Surge as US Mega‑cap Tech Lags
A ton of green away from US mega-cap tech $RSP, SMIDs, & ex-US +1%... bitcoin, bonds, gold also up https://t.co/DbNQGqHO7X
Low‑Rise Home Building Surges After Four‑Year Slump
New Home Construction Industry Rises From The Grave: Low-Rise Home Building Jumps Hi-Rise Condos Still Dead Building new Single Family, Semi's & Townhouses has been Dead in Ontario for 4 years Ottawa has crawled along but Southern Ontario a total crash Until this...
House Price Growth Stalls; Punta Gorda, Austin Plunge
Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in March; Up only 0.7% Year-over-year Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18% https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-decreased-9d1
Fed's Rate Moves Defy Crisis Predictions
The Fed kept rates at 0% for a long time Lots of pundits predicted it would lead to a crisis and maybe even hyperinflation Didn't happen Then they raised rates b/c of the pandemic inflation Still no crisis Why? https://t.co/JqtrhQ1AHs https://t.co/g75B9IkwoQ
XBI Pulls Back to 50‑MA, Gap‑Up Reversal Signals Day Trade
$XBI with a pullback to 50ma yesterday with small gap up reversal confirm today. (new here) Might be a day trade need more cushion and have swing plan ready.
Inseego to Acquire Nokia's Fixed Wireless Access Business
"Inseego $INSG said on Thursday it will acquire Nokia's $NOK fixed wireless access, or FWA business, to expand its global footprint in wireless broadband." https://t.co/O5VEKjus4K via Seeking Alpha