PLTR Overvalued: True Worth $128, Watchlist Only
#PLTR Scorecard My Full Deep Dive Thesis on $PLTR Beat the Market to the Real Value And I Still Disagree With Wall Street On March 24, when $PLTR was trading at $160, my full thesis already uncovered its true Expected Value at $128. Zero margin of safety. My verdict: Watchlist only. The market has now come back to me. Recent Institutional Rating Says: • UBS — Buy | $200 • Mizuho — Buy | $195 • Citigroup — Buy | $260 I disagree.
Oil Headlines Mislead; Brent Stuck Near $100
I can’t be the only one who sees these headlines day in and day out yet sees Brent crude struggle to hold $100/barrel and thinks there must be magic supplies of oil out there somehow.
One Low‑Vol Short Can Power an Entire Year’s Alpha
It is underdiscussed how much great short selling talent sits at multis, and how important alpha shorting really is to success in the multi-manager model. One big short, particularly in a low vol name you can size in dollars, can make...
Maximize HSA Growth: Invest All, Reimburse Later
I have $500 in cash in my HSA (my plan’s minimum). The rest is invested in the S&P 500. I’m tracking all my medical expenses and plan to reimburse myself in 20 years. This is how you use HSA to its...
China’s Low Inflation Reflects Sub‑golden M2 Growth
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.0%/yr in March, BELOW its 2%/yr target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Strait of Hormuz Lies Within Iran‑Oman Territorial Waters
Journalists, politicians, and so-called experts all omitting (disingenuously, I reckon) to mention that the Strait of Hormuz is not “high seas”, it is fully within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. RNZ still framing it all as US sycophants...
Anglo Cuts 2026 Copper Outlook Amid Lower Collahuasi Grades
Anglo cut 2026 copper guidance as lower ore grades at Collahuasi weaken Chilean production expectations. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/anglo-2026-copper-guidance-falls-as.html
GEN Stands Out: 6.5x P/E, 12.5% EPS Growth
Cheapest software names based on forward P/E (market cap >$2bn) I'm a fan of $GEN on this list... 6.5x earnings with 12.5% estimated EPS growth next 3 years https://t.co/TPgzemEkVy
Oil Futures Lag Behind Spot Prices Amid Supply Shock
From The New York Times : “The futures and spot prices are rarely exactly the same, but the gap between them has grown unusually big in the past few weeks, so much so that oil executives and analysts say futures prices...
Neuron Energy to Build 5 GWh Battery Factory in India
Neuron Energy plans 5 GWh battery storage factory in India #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/lCGZ48gTkw
AI Hype Inflates Multiples, but Narratives Drive Price
Freee could easily have traded up to 5x EV/Sales on the expectation that its new AI powered features would bring in greater revenues. No-one would have batted an eye. But narratives follow price.
California's Low‑Rate Mortgages Keep Prices Firm, Florida Falls
Some interesting differences are showing up in mortgage rates by state. California: 28% of mortgaged houses are at sub-3% rate Florida: 16% only before pandemic, they both were similar. But now, there's a big gap. California's sub-3% mortgage rates are one of the reasons...
China Halts Jet Fuel Exports, Triggering Global Shortage
Jet fuel supply disruptions continue. China has halted jet fuel exports; Asia is running out of fuel. Major shortages could soon spread to Europe and the US. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR DAMAGE. https://t.co/1BeaFpUw8i
Energy Price Surge Drives up U.S. CPI Inflation
First Wave of Energy Price Spikes Hit CPI Inflation. Energy that Americans pay for directly: Gasoline, propane, fuel oil, other fuels, utility natural gas, and electricity https://t.co/SiGQSZV2zn https://t.co/uO9XHnvFt8
Invest Only in What You Truly Understand
Don't invest in stuff you don't understand What you know (not what you assume) is what can determine your success DYOR is more than a slogan
5‑Step System to Decode Earnings Quickly
Earnings season is back and most investors are drowning in the data 📊 You don't need an MBA to spot a winner... you just need a system From $AEHR 's guidance to margin shifts, here is my 5-step framework to read any...
US Expands Regional Deployment, Unlikely to Pull Back
All the while the US has a massive additional deployment to the region underway. Will they stand it down or turn it back? I doubt it.
Market Executes V‑Shape Rally; Semis Hit All‑Time Highs
Market just pulled off a full V-shaped rally Semis at all-time highs, breadth expanding, and positioning flipped fast. Here’s how we're trading it $SPY $QQQ $IWM $SMH $USO https://t.co/fgOrjqiQ0I
China’s 41‑Month Deflation Streak Ends, PPI Up 0.5%
China’s deflation streak is FINALLY OVER. Yesterday, after 41 straight months in the red, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) finally ended -- barely -- at 0.5%/yr. https://t.co/Ysgkv6ogB2
Consistent Dividends Reveal Management Integrity Over EPS
Most analysts study earnings per share. The smart ones study dividend history. One can be massaged. The other has to be paid, in cash, every quarter, for decades. Show me 20 years of uninterrupted dividends and I'll show you management that can't...
Global Oil Trade Hits Record Amid Saudi Disruptions
🇺🇸US crude oil exports to increase to highest on record 🇮🇳India's Imports from Russia are Near Record High 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia's damaged oil facilities: What is the impact? Daily Energy Report https://t.co/pyGKWXbmpg
Biotech IPOs Open as Hemab Goes Public
Biotech IPO gates are opening. Congrats also to @JMaraganore (Chair) and Benny Sorensen (CEO) of Hemab, and best of luck.
SPAC DAT Merger Ends, PIPE Investors Breathe Relief
PIPE investors breathe a sigh of relief as we get the first big SPAC DAT merger termination. Dynamix $ETHM terminates its business combination with The Ether Machine, which is awkward after already changing its ticker. Also, who gets the $50 million break...
T‑Rex
T-Rex w filing for 2x versions of a bunch of future-y ETFs incl $DRAM which is only a week old. humanoids, robots and drones ETFs also in the mix. https://t.co/9eYx0otKr3
Ceasefire‑Driven Rally Likely Short‑Lived Ahead Weekend Risk
Relief Rally Ends Ahead Of Weekend Risk $SPX $VIX Mechanical buying & short covering made for an historical bounce on 'ceasefire' news. But is it really safe? https://t.co/rBuCLlLEIj
Define Your Real Spending Limits, Plan 1% at a Time
Everybody's out here telling you to live within your means like what the hell does that mean in THIS ECONOMY?!😭 Nobody told you what your means actually are. They just handed you the advice and walked off. New YouTube is up...
Radical Portfolio Theory Needed as 60/40 Fails
There has never been a more important time for the "Radical Portfolio Theory" than now. 60/40 is completely broken. https://t.co/iIo9oxu8YX
Amazon's Growth Lies in Physical Retail and On-Prem IT
Read Andy Jassy’s annual letter and these are two valid bull cases for Amazon: > 80% of retail is still in physical stores > 85% of IT spend is still on-prem https://t.co/MREb97tYrY
SAFX Fireworks: Sold Wednesday Core Swing Addition
$SAFX nice fireworks today -- sold what I added around core swing from Wednesday @IUTraders https://t.co/V7sKzPxW1U
Two‑Week 3%+ S&P Surge Predicts Strong Year‑Ahead Returns
More good news for the bulls. S&P 500 up >3% back to back weeks is historically quite bullish. Above average returns across the board and higher a year later 86.7% of the time. https://t.co/vVfLF8fE7P
Hedge Funds' Short Covering Crushed Market as Retail Shifts
From the TFF which I much prefer to COT. The last month was clear. Long only asset managers do what they always do which is chase price. Through tuesday they were nothing but buyers and must have...
Oil Prices Drop After Iran Ceasefire, Hormuz Still Closed
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices collapsed following the announcement of an Iran War ceasefire, during which attacks have continued, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed; all eyes on weekend negotiations Summary below, full report...
Office Leasing Nears Pre‑pandemic Levels in Half of Top Markets
Office leasing volumes have rebounded to within 10% of pre-pandemic averages in nearly half of the 20 largest office markets in the country. https://t.co/pNvbzWkrZl
Broad Market Rallies, Energy Slumps, Tech Leads Gains
This week @finviz: $SPY +3.6% $QQQ +4.5% $SMH +11.4% $IWM +4.0% $VEU +4.9% $USO -9.5% $IBIT +9.5% $GLD +1.8% $XHB +5.7% $KRE +4.5% https://t.co/2QilRfBflT
SPX Needs 6855 Breakout to Reach 7K
$SPX - Ended a 7 day up streak after almost reaching the 78.6% retracement of the late January to late March downtrned at 6855. The March 30 low was confirmed as an intermediate term low but it needs a close...
Tech Rallies 4%+; XLK Hits First Death Cross
Technology led the way higher with a more than 4% gain for the second-straight week. But XLK couldn't avoid a death cross, its first since March 2025 https://t.co/gGrsYGe9od
Rare 2‑Week 3%+ S&P Gains Predict Future Moves
Random: The S&P 500 just gained more than 3% in consecutive trading weeks - 16th instance since 1950 (per my data). Here's how the index has traded thereafter. $spx https://t.co/TrSK4jsJpR
Dragonfly Premium Fund Gains 4.7% Weekly, 17.6% YTD
Dragonfly Capital Premium Top 10 Equal Weighted added 4.675% on the week using 90% of capital. YTD +17.61% https://t.co/vJiWIqZmjw https://t.co/tI2MVAcSJn
Out‑of‑State Money Fuels Miami Office Boom
Out-of-state interest whips up the #Miami office market, as come-hither conditions attract the well off. 'It's OK to be rich here, it's OK to be poor here. It's not OK to be rich in #LA or #NY' #SoFla #realestate #CRE...
IGV Near Support; Below $74 Triggers Drop to $65
$IGV - Broke the major support at $76, but has reached the 62% retracement of the 2022-2025 bull market at $74, so it can't be ruled out that this is not a real breakdown. However, a close below $74 will...
Transportation Index and SMH Hit Weekly Records, Defying Bearish Outlook
Dow Jones Transportation Index - record weekly close that and $SMH at weekly records - not bearish https://t.co/jLpKh57glK
China Receives Global Concessions, Offers Little
Am sure Yufan describes the basic view of many in Beijing -- At the same time, the world has already made enormous accommodations to China, and I am not sure China has made much effort to accommodate other creditors that also...
Timed Deadlines Manipulate Markets via Fear‑Relief Cycles
Thoughts? We break down how strategic deadlines are timed around stock market openings and closings to engineer market movements. We explain the fear-relief rally cycle: creating extreme fear with shocking announcements, causing heavy selling, then announcing relief to trigger buying...
Rolled QQQ Put Spreads,
Adjustment: $QQQ May 590/550 1x2 put spreads ==> June 600/564.78-560 1x2 put spreads taking $2.30
Anthropic's AI Layer Poised for $26B Revenue
We articulated this abstraction layer Anthropic is going after and how this turns into $$ in our full report on Anthropic and their revenue potential. The financial model we built end of February had them at $26B in 26...
Simple Process Unlocks Quad3 Benefits for Your Retirement
You don't need a Bloomberg terminal or a corner office to know what #Quad3 means for your retirement account You need a process. We built one. It's yours
Only Two S&P 500 Sector ETFs Show Gains
Just 2 S&P 500 sector ETFs are up 2-1, 3-1 negative across the S&P 1500 https://t.co/WnCaRRfhqA
Signal Detects Upcoming News, Triggers CRWV Short Cover
We sent Institutional Subs a signal to cover the $CRWV Short this week The Signal sniffed out the pending "news"
Key Market Drivers Ahead of Banks' Earnings Season
"Hello Friends": A special @TheMasters edition of the "Friday Night Dirty" from our "What Are We Doing" Substack. @Seawolfcap @VD718 and myself focus on what is driving markets and what to watch for next week as the Banks kickoff earnings...
Market Outlook: Impact of Ceasefire Success or Failure
My video looking out over the coming week: Market Outlook Should a Ceasefire Fail or Hold https://t.co/MVQDZY94oJ https://t.co/Ir3CZFs9DE