Markets Soar While Americans Feel Economic Despair
S&P 500: ALL-TIME HIGH Consumer Sentiment: ALL-TIME LOW Wall Street says the economy is booming, but is not for the average American.
Molybdenum Prices Surge Past $28, $MOLY Near $3B Valuation
Molybdenum prices keep rising. Now firmly above US$28 lb/Mo. That's roughly $ 3bn for $MOLY Expect more announcement re financing and off-take agreement over the quarters. $150m market cap.
Pakistan Opens Corridors, Linking Iran to Russia, China
🚨PAKISTAN DOUBLE CROSSING TRUMP🚨 Pakistan has now opened six corridors to Iran to bypass the US blockade. Over 3,000 containers are already traversing these routes. Iran can now connect directly by land to Russia & China and the US cannot stop them. MASTERMIND?...
Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF Beats Cash Reserves
Got unused capital… just sitting there? If your goal is to hedge against income loss, there may be better options. Our latest whitepaper explores the Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF ( $CAOS ) as a more effective alternative to capital...
Japan Confident of Crude Oil Supply Through Year‑end
Japanese top officials say that "even conservatively, we expect to ensure supply [of crude oil] through the end of the year."
Apple Earnings Call: $282.5 Target Price
Apple earnings is calls so I'll get this one out the way $282.5 is what I'm going with 👇🏾
Yen Surge Suggests Unofficial Intervention, Biggest USDJPY Drop Since 2023
Still no word from an official Japanese gov't source (BOJ or MOF) that this surge in the Yen is direct intervention. That said, looks like intervention. Biggest $USDJPY drop since January 2023 - in the aftermath of intervention back then....
Growth Boom and Surplus Can't Stop Currency Decline
Massive growth acceleration Massive external surplus Yet its currency weakened amid the growth surge hmmm https://t.co/r5svYHvizk
Google's Q1 Income Soars, Anthropic Stake Fuels $37.7B Gain
GOOGL net income increased to a staggering $62.6B in Q1 2026. Their Anthropic stake is now worth up to ~$140B and is the primary driver of $37.7B ‘other income’ gain in Q1 2026. GOOGL Q1 2026 visualized:
Rising Global Debt Signals Fiat Debasement, Boosting Gold‑Silver Miners
IMF warns: Global govt debt exploding to 102% of GDP by 2030 highest since WWII. US + China leading the charge. Translation? Fiat debasement ahead. Gold & silver miners are your leverage play. Cash-flow machines with rising metal prices. $gdxj...
Potential $1.5 T Dry Powder Could Ignite Stock Rally
We haven’t heard much about that mountain of cash supposedly sitting on the sidelines waiting to get sucked into the market. My take has been that the $7.8 trillion sitting in money market funds came from the banks and not...
Single-Stock Delta Triggers $2B
Single stock delta is the downside driver this AM. -$2bn is size... 30-day low is -$4bn for day https://t.co/HMMDWVmMUC
June Brent Expires, July Becomes New Prompt Price
Seeing some confusion on the feed re: Brent prices/volatility and today's expiry. Today is the last day of trading for Brent's June contract (white), and tomorrow the July contract (blue) becomes the "prompt" price most of us see when we search...
Nikkei Confirms Material Market Intervention Occurred Today
The Nikkei is reporting that material intervention did take place today. It cites unidentified govt official.
Caterpillar Boosts DJIA, Offsetting 90‑Point Drop
DJIA would be down 90pts if not for $CAT (adding 370pts to the average) https://t.co/enUdGgtidO
Investors Foolishly Favor Overpriced Stocks over Cheaper Alternatives
There's no other way to describe the investors reaction to MAG 7 earnings other than idiotic. They're selling off the cheaper stocks in favor of buying the more expensive ones. Whoever buys $GOOGL at a 30X forward PE in favor...
New Income Strategies Replace Broken 4% Rule
Bonds are failing retirees. The 4% rule is broken. Covered call ETFs are leaving money on the table. Free CE credit panel TODAY at 1 PM ET with @TuttleCapital. What actually works for income in 2026. https://t.co/RQPLScxiYP
MSFT May Call Spread Trade Likely Fails
$MSFT "Trade Idea 2: Buy the May 1 Expiry 430/440 Call Spread ($3.90) and sell the May 1 Expiry 395 Put for 30 cents." a bust, looks to expire
Bank Savings Earn 0.01%, T‑Bills Yield 3.5%
Big banks rip you off. BoA, Chase, and Wells Fargo pay ~0.01% interest on your savings. They earn BILLIONS off your cash by lending it out at 6.5 Instead of keeping your savings there, consider Treasury Bills paying ~3.5%, state tax free, backed...
Free Put, Call Spread Gains $5 on Expiration
$GOOGL "Trade Idea 2: Buy the May 1 Expiry 355/360 Call Spread ($2.35) and sell the May 1 Expiry 332.50 Put for free." puts expire, sell to close call spread near $5
Trade Idea Bust: Monitor Puts, Consider Rolling Down
$META "Trade Idea 2: Buy the May 1 Expiry 670/682.50 Call Spread ($5.65) and sell the May 1 Expiry 615 Put for 40 cents." a bust, watch puts, may need to roll down and out
Lagarde Signals Two Rate Hikes in March Forecast
Lagarde basically underwriting the idea that the baseline forecasts in March includes two rate hikes
Profit From Amazon Call Spread After Put Expiry
$AMZN "Trade Idea 2: Buy the May 1 Expiry 262.50/267.50 Call Spread ($2.30) and sell the May 1 Expiry 240 Put for 7 cents.' puts expire, sell to close call spread near $5
ECB Delays Decision, Promises Review Next Month
The ECB is "not pre-committing" to any decision, but it is "bound to revisit" the situation next month. Hope you you picked up on the nuance.
Tech's Rare +20% Monthly Gains at All‑Time Highs
Here's every time the tech sector had a +20% monthly total return at an all-time high. https://t.co/9aARGfGuZL
Yen Surge Exposes Central Banks' Ponzi Economy
Watching the Yen get manipulated stronger (And US Dollar weaker) this morning is just incredible. The side-effects globally is a testament to the fact we are in a centrally-planned ponzi economy where free markets don't really exist in the way have...
Yen Jumps 3% on Speculation of Japanese Intervention
Yen intervention? Bloomberg: "The yen surged as much as 3% as traders speculated Japan is intervening in the foreign-exchange market, hours after officials delivered a “final” warning to investors against selling the currency" https://t.co/ePYGtzQpwG
Lagarde Says “Stagflation” No Longer Applies This Time
Lagarde (only slightly paraphrased): we don't use the term stagflation because this time is different
Oracle Shares Plunge 50% After Bubble Warning
Oracle has dropped 50% since I declared that the OpenAI deal they made was “peak bubble”. And, as @edzitron lays out below, they may fall a lot further yet. At which point the entire house of cards could collapse.
Trimming Final Third of GOOGL Power Play Options
My latest $GOOGL Power Play Options update - i’ll be trimming the final 1/3 today. Don’t miss the next one: https://t.co/huWSItZPOB https://t.co/szufQNua6T
Lagarde Signals Hawkish Shift, Rate Hike on Table
Here's @lagarde's hawkish signal: "we are certainly moving away from our baseline". The unanimous decision to remain on hold was based on "insufficient information, but a rate hike was also discussed today.
Record Beef Prices Trigger Shift to Other Meats
The biggest food price problem has nothing to do with the US-Iran war. Beef prices are rising higher, today setting a new all-time high above $2.55 per lb. The rise in beef is prompting demand switch to other meat forms, putting...
U.S. Export Sales Meet Expectations; Corn, Beans, Wheat Strong
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. export sales met trade expectations. Corn stayed above average for the time of year, led by Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela & unknown. China led in net bean sales (though most were switched from unknown), Egypt was 2nd. Old-crop...
Active Management Returns as Market Shows Clear Winners
Active management making a comeback?!? There is actually dispersion in the market. There are now winners & losers. https://t.co/2IElGGZKWi
High Earners Lack Money Confidence? Try This 5‑Point Fix
A lot of high earners don’t feel confident about their money — even when things look “fine.” There’s a reason for that. I unpacked it here: High-Income, Low Confidence? This 5-Point Plan Can Fix That | Kiplinger https://share.google/afgSluijuIsguiiKt
Lagarde: Credit Tightening Signals Implicit Rate Rise
Lagarde emphasizes that credit conditions have tightened. It's important to note that rates have implicitly increased in face of the supply shock.
Diversified Long-Term Investing Turns Market Turbulence Into Opportunity
Remember this the next time you find yourself in a turbulent market with bad news: 1. You are a long-term investor 2. Diversified portfolios are resilient 3. Down markets present opportunities 4. Corrections and bear markets have always given way to a recovery https://t.co/7U3OZH4iTy
Index Highs Mask Underlying Market Chop; Trade Cautiously
Most traders see the index near highs and think “strength.” But look underneath: → 1,000+ stocks down 3 days in a row → Setups failing to trigger → Follow-through is weak That’s not a trend. That’s chop. In this environment: – Trade smaller – Be selective – Or stay out Wait...
Verbal FX Intervention Fails; Real Action Needed
🚨 USD/JPY just had its biggest drop of the year -500 pips The headlines: 👉Tagged 160.50, highest since July 2024 👉MoF: "final advisory to escape south" 👉Citing "extremely speculative moves" 👉Hinted at coordinated US action The catch: Verbal intervention has a 0% success rate without follow-through....
Economist's Forecast Proven: Hormuz Strait Still Closed
The Economist cover is right this time [if Hormuz remains closed, which is still is] https://t.co/s9dyaHjaCU
Earnings Deep Dive: Microsoft, Google, and More
Full video from yesterday’s live session on Substack is out Earnings Unveiled: Microsoft, Google, and More—Insights and Analysis https://youtu.be/EAj9CiJQkcs
30‑Year Treasury Yield Hovers Near 5%
Lots of data... yields remain lower this morning... but that 30yr is still close to 5% https://t.co/ol2XJ3StCG
67‑Year‑Old Lifts 365
What’s the heavier lift: 365 lbs on your 67th birthday or telling your colleagues you changed your mind on rate cuts? Chris Waller seems comfortable with both. (He posted this video on his LinkedIn account) https://t.co/RIAIyJCkUm
Iran Blockade Prediction Matches Current Brent Surge; Little Upside Left
In this post from back in March, I calculated that an Iran blockade would cause Brent to rise 80% from pre-war levels. That's exactly where we are now based on the July Brent future. The case for oil prices to...
Limit Downside, Capture Upside with Options Before Earnings
📺 MARKET REACTION TO MEGA-CAP EARNINGS: TREND STILL INTACT 🔴 Get today's newsletter: https://t.co/Rqp84Wg39F The market has been in a constructive uptrend, with $SPY holding above the 8-day, which has been key support throughout the recent rally. Major overhangs are now behind us:...
Stop Waiting: Use Your Money to Fund Life
Everyone has a version of "the list". The place you'll visit when the kids leave home. The slower life you'll start when things calm down. The problem? Everything NEVER lines up. The list doesn't get shorter.. You just get older. I've spent 20...
Cascading Agrifood Shocks Demand Predictive Modeling for Resilience
Agrifood crises aren’t linear. Risks cascade over time. Example: @FAO's Hormuz analysis shows how energy shocks ripple through fertilizer, productivity and food security. Modeling can predict crises and identify policy combinations that boost resilience. https://t.co/xeHzPqdSuB
China Boosts May Fuel Exports, Still Below Last‑year Average
China is allowing more exports of jet fuel, diesel and gasoline in May. Were reporting about 500,000 tons. A big improvement but well off the monthly average last year
July Oil Futures Hit $108, Pricing Gulf Shortfall
The June Brent future (black) expires today, so a better gauge for oil prices is the July future (pink) that is $108 and up 80% since the start of the year. By any stretch of the imagination, this fully prices...
Brent Crude Poised for Peak After Slingshot Reversal
Slingshot reversal in Brent Crude and The Economist telling us oil is too low. Could be the top in crude. https://t.co/uw1b5IxUUm