Meta Beats Estimates Yet Shares Slide 10% Pre‑Market
Despite beating consensus on Q1 revenue and Q2 guidance in its earnings release last night, Meta's stock is trading down nearly 10% pre-market this morning.
Meta's Debt Triples, $25B Bond Sale Boosts Load
Meta Debt Load - Zuck Levering Up 2026: $87B* 2022: $27B *Add $25B, **META LOOKS TO RAISE $25B IN BOND SALE - Bloomberg.
ECB Holds Rates at 2%, Flags Inflation Upside, Growth Downside
#ECB keeps rates steady. Deposit rate at 2% as expected. Sees upside inflation risks, downside growth risks. https://t.co/wmrCEOkbf7
Spoos Spikes Past 7200, Brief Rally Fades
Spoos surging over 7200 Guess that victory lap for trend-fighters was very short celebrating a run of the mill 8MA test lol
ECB Warns of Rising Inflation Risks, Growth Slowdown
🇪🇺 ECB: on alert, but not overreacting 👏 "the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified" "longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, although inflation expectations over shorter horizons have moved up significantly"
US Gas Prices Surge to $4.30, Adding $70 Monthly
Oof. The US national gas average just hit $4.30, according to AAA. That's the highest since July 2022. Gas prices have shot up $1.40 since the war in Iran began. That's adding ~$70 extra a month to household costs. #gas #inflation...
UK Gilt Yields Drop Sharply on Oil, Yet Remain High
UK Gilts and Oil Pricea The "good news" for the UK today is that it's government bond market’s hypersensitivity (high beta) to oil prices is finally providing relief on the way down: As shown in the Bloomberg table below, the yield on...
Build a Python Algo for 472% Returns
How to make a simple algorithmic trading strategy with a 472% return using Python. A thread. 🧵
Yen Surges to Strongest Level Since 2022 Amid Policy‑oil Coordination
Biggest yen jump since December 2022 as Japan "officials" and oil work together. https://t.co/RynfgKJbDD #forex #USDJPY $USO
Serious Sellers Share Key Lease Details, Not Just Offers
It happens countless times a day in America. A broker cold-calls a property owner to see if they’d be interested in selling, and they get the most nonsensical answer possible: “Sure, bring me an offer.” When the broker asks for more information about...
Buy Divergence at 240, Anticipate Upside Repair Zone
Repair zone to upisde after 240 Buy Div in GC. One step at a time. https://t.co/9swW3VZ75w
Economist Predicts Oil Still Undervalued, Prices Set to Rise
Oh dear, the curse of The Economist's oil cover: "... Why oil prices are not yet high enough..." You know what that means, don't you? https://t.co/fWwZunxd0P
Tech Earnings Ahead as Gas Storage Drops
📊 Pre-Market Brief | Thu, Apr 30 ─────── 📅 MACRO DATA Natural Gas Storage: Est 83 | Prior 103 Core PCE Price Index m/m: Est 0.3 | Prior 0.4 ─────── 💰 MAG 7 EARNINGS MSFT Wednesday Est 4.07 GOOGL Wednesday Est 2.63 META Wednesday Est 6.67 AMZN Wednesday Est 1.89 AAPL...
Amazon Q1 Profit Bolstered by $16.8B Anthropic Gain
💰Epic footnote to AMAZON Q1 net income: "First quarter 2026 net income includes pre-tax gains of $16.8 billion included in non-operating income from our investments in Anthropic." https://t.co/qZpRKqQ5Ks
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 84%, Pushes Official Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 84% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA'S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/vvYHB91ZKo
Questioning ECB’s Early Look at Q2 Forecasts
My question to @Lagarde would be: did the Governing Council have a first look at the Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q2? If so, how bad does it look? https://t.co/rvxtO93HNC
Nov Soybeans Reach Record High, Rare April Spike
📈Nov CBOT soybeans inked a new yearly high of $11.78 per bushel in overnight trade on Thursday, replacing the old high from March 12. They have since eased. Setting annual highs in April is rare for new-crop soybeans. May is a...
Google's Ad Revenue Climbs 15.5%, Overall up 22%
Google Ad revenue up 15.5% with overall revenue up 22% - big numbers but obviously not as big as last quarter https://t.co/VBLBlBx5y4 https://t.co/4rW4iHYivI
Nike Bounces Back Amid Market Challenges
Today's TSOH Investment Research "Nike: Fighting Back" $NKE Thank you to @FrancoOlivera for his helpful feedback and edits https://t.co/dupGIEWdYS https://t.co/VqgZUmUTbl
Brent Futures Hold Tight Within $13 Range, No News
The (expiring) front-month Brent oil contract has traded today within a ~$13 range in absolutely no-news.
Yen Rebounds After Fed’s Hawkish Hold Interpretation
The Yen Recovers on Verbal Intervention: The North American market understood yesterday’s Fed statement and the three dissents in favor of a neutral bias as a hawkish hold and rallied the dollar in response. Follow-through selling today has been minimal…...
Majorities Say War Bonds Offer No Cost Advantage
Latest CfM-NIESR survey: "War bonds" would offer no cost advantage over standard government bonds. Some 76% of the UK panel and 71% of the EU panel disagreed with the proposition that “war bonds” would be a cheaper form of borrowing. https://t.co/USeBxw4ZRx
Copper’s Gains Mirror S&P, Yet Lag Behind Trends
Highly Stock-Market Dependent Copper May Be a Guide Copper's increasing dependency for stability on a rising US stock market may underscore elevated risks across assets. My macroeconomic scorecard shows both copper and the S&P 500 up about 5% year to date...
Energy Drives 2026 Commodity Rally, Metals Lag Behind
Energy Shifts Commodity Sectors - 2026 Performance Energy is pulling other commodity sectors higher in 2026 -- the key question is how far and for how long. Sector performance has reversed from 2025, with energy leading and precious metals lagging. Full report...
Ackman Purchases 1.3M PS Shares at Deep Discounts
An excerpt from my interview with @CNBC on $PSUS and $PS. I bought 500,000 shares of $PSUS and 800,000 shares of $PS yesterday in the open market. PSUS trades at a large discount to its $49 cash per share...
Check If You’re Holding Our Top Signal Strength Stocks
CHART OF THE DAY: Are You Long Our Top Longs In Signal Strength Stocks With Us? https://t.co/uatzlIuW4F via @hedgeye
Central Banks Must Stay Steady Amid War‑driven Turmoil
War shock tests central banks’ resolve Linda Yueh on why policymakers may hold their nerve as inflation rises, growth falters and uncertainty deepens https://t.co/VFosKL0tlX
Family Happiness Beats Lavish Vacations; Live Below Your Means
Sure, you can spend £5,067 on a lavish holiday. Or, for you £22 you can: Get 100 x 2ps, 20 x 50ps and 10 x £1s - and have an absolute scream at the arcade. Your kids don’t give a sh** about: All inclusive...
Low Volume at New Highs Mirrors 2007 Market Peak
@KeithMcCullough @SamofAmerica @RPKent @HedgeyeDJ Data suggest that volume alone is not a reliable indicator of a rally’s ability to sustain itself. That said, the last time we observed this degree of persistently low volume accompanying a new all-time high...
MYE Undervalued: Signature Systems Drives Hidden 70% EV
$MYE looking cheap again. Still up 30% since the original pitch, but trading at 10x EV/2025 FCF. Hidden asset Signature Systems is potentially worth 70% of EV alone. Gamco, with a 15% stake pushing for a Signature partial IPO. Management mute on...
Liquidity Dries up Exactly During Market Crises
The 2010 US equity market ‘flash crash’, the 2014 US Treasury turbulence, and the March 2020 pandemic sell-off in US Treasuries all share a disturbing pattern: liquidity vanished precisely when it was most urgently needed. https://t.co/qvntt9NSaH
Emerging Market Loans Default 3.5%, Recovery Beats Benchmarks
Global Emerging Markets Risk Database w over 3 decades of lending data from 29 multilateral development banks, documents average default rate of 3.54% for loans to private entities in emerging markets alongside recovery rates that exceed global benchmarks https://t.co/zT7IRupC9M
Oil Prices Swing $15 in 48 Hours, Threatening Economy
Crazy price volatility in the oil market: In less than 48 hours, Brent crude has swung from a local low of $111 to a high of $126 and is currently trading at around $116 (Bloomberg chart below). This level of instability is...
Yen Rebounds on Intervention as US Eyes Iran Strike
Ahead of ECB and BOE outcome, the yen is in the spotlight. It has reversed higher after heightened verbal intervention by Japanese officials. Meanwhile, the US is reportedly considering new military strikes on Iran. Oil extends gains but...
SPX Risk Range Signals Minimal Downside, New Highs Ahead
Post all the noise and "news" post market close, my $SPX Risk Range™ Signal yawned with only -1.2% on the downside and upside to new all-time highs
Utilities Show Strong Bubble Exhaustion, Tech Remains Calm
"Despite the semi/dot com bubble headlines, we aren't seeing that many LPPL exhaustion signals in Information Technology yet ... Instead, Utilities are flashing the most aggressive bubble exhaustion signals at present." -Variant Perception
Market Bets on 2026‑27 Lithium Prices, Ignores LT Re‑rating
From a private discussion yesterday in the eucalyptus tree Market seems to believe in 2026/27 lithium prices but not re-rating “LT pricing” yet Plus the usual Aussie premium for assets in the homeland https://t.co/7gAh4ZnV41
Oil Prices Set to Rise Amid Strait Uncertainty
My comments to CNN as Brent climbed to $125 Thursday afternoon in Asia: Oil prices have “nowhere to go but up,” until the permanent reopening of the strait comes into view, said Vandana Hari, founder of energy market analysis firm Vanda...
Flexible Supply Chains May Soften UK Price Impact
Economic effects of the US/Israeli conflict with Iran are emerging for UK consumers and businesses. However, flexible supply chains may cushion price https://t.co/MNmgP7YtEG
Earnings Roundup: META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL Mixed Results
Hey @grok Can you give a summary of the good, the bad, and the ugly for $META $MSFT $AMZN and $GOOGL earnings from yesterday?
Naspers Pays Premium Buying Shares Above Average Cost
Naspers is now sitting at R894 a share. They continue to buy shares weekly at around the +R900 level, and are spending billions of Rands every month doing so. Their average share price since starting their repurchases sits at +-R725...
Japanese 10‑Year Yield Hits 2.52%, Echoing Global Rise
Japanese 10-year yields hit a new post-1997 high of 2.52%. Longer-term yields are rising globally in tandem with surging oil prices, especially as companies and governments demonstrate a will to keep spending. https://t.co/cL61POetPv
Big‑Cap Stocks See Valuations Diverge From Fundamentals
We are seeing a massive decoupling of valuations from fundamentals. The larger the stock, the more intense this shift becomes. Here is the data on the new market reality 🧵 h/t @mjmauboussin for this wealth of data. https://t.co/3cVr2WqgiZ
MONY Appears Cheap: Lower P/E, Higher Dividend
#MONY Update reads OK and no evidence of AI causing problems. ShareScope has fwd p/e 9.5 falling to 8.9 and fwd Divvy 7.5% rising to 7.7% and Buybacks on top. Could be cheap really. I don't hold.
RNWH's Edwards Dive Deal Boosts Earnings, Slightly Better Valuation
#RNWH buying Edwards Diving Services and says "will be immediately earnings enhancing". ShareScope has fwd p/e 12.5 falling to 11.7 and fwd Divvy 2.4% rising to 2.5%; no steal but reasonable. I don't hold.
GLEN Margins Set to Expand as Metal Prices Rise
#GLEN says production pretty much in line but suggesting rises in metals prices could widen margins, despite higher input costs. ShareScope has fwd p/e 13.4 RISING to 13.5 and fwd Divvy 2.6% each of next 2 years; very difficult to...
Iran Tensions Push Oil Above $110, Market Volatility Spikes
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-London ─────── U.S. oil prices surged above $110 per barrel amid potential military action against Iran. Iran maintains hardline stance on Strait of Hormuz control, increasing risk of extended blockade and oil supply disruptions. US Navy intercepted the 42nd...
BuyTrigger Flagged Undervalued Google; 115% Gain Follows
Anyone who owned $GOOG isn’t celebrating the 7% after hours gain. They are celebrating the 115% gains because a year ago Google dropped after earnings despite a good quarter. I built the BuyTrigger system to identify situation like these. My buytrigger system...
China Eases Fuel Export Ban for Select Asian Buyers
Important development: China has given state-owned refiners the green light to export some gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel to a handful of regular customers (in Asia), signaling the country is effectively easing an earlier ban on shipments.
Biotech Liquidation Opportunities: ENDI, FNCH, LQDA Outlook
Please find Arquitos Capital's Q1 2026 letter below. I discuss opportunities in liquidating biotechs, $ENDI $FNCH and the range of potential outcomes for $LQDA. https://t.co/LJCczZ04W6