UK Long‑dated Yields Hit 28‑year High on BoE Hike Bets
The yield on long-dated UK debt climbed to a 28-year high as traders bet on more Bank of England interest-rate hikes https://t.co/1j1HJapqBI
AUD/USD Near Key Resistance, Inflection Risk Rising
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Bulls Eye Major Resistance- Inflection Risk Builds https://t.co/idLSndsSs8 $AUDUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/8OyUNxFYAT
Physical Oil Premiums Collapse as Brent Steadies Near $115
Counterintuitive perhaps, but the physical oil market appears to be calming. Dated Brent is hovering at ~$115 a barrel, and physical differentials have narrowed massively, with grades offered at ~$3 a barrel premium to the benchmark vs the ~$30 a...
From War‑torn Ruins to Outpacing the UK
Imagine telling someone in 1953 — as Korea lay in ruins after the war — that one day its stock market would be bigger than the UK's.
Self‑Storage Boom Amid Soft Market, Seeking Capital
The self storage opportunity is growing. Market is soft. A lot of distress. I need to raise a lot of money. What family offices or groups should I talk to?
Credit Spreads Vary 42x Across Data Center Firms
The credit market is the harshest judge of risk. Looking at credit default swaps of data center companies, a few things stand out: • The market is starting to believe there is less risk (although still very high) for Nebius and CoreWeave...
XLI Poised for Bullish Breakout Amid Sector Rotation
Rotation eventually will need to be a big theme for this epic market bounce to turn into a longer term move. And $XLI Industrials' technical set up makes it a strong candidate. The ETF saw a strong bounce from late March into...
Wealth Surge Driven by Older Elite, Not Youth Transfer
WSJ: "Bequeathable wealth rose from 256% of US GDP in 1997 to 424% in 2021, the last year of available data. A staggering 97% of that increase was due to wealth gains in households where the head of household was 55...
Thursday's TA Webinar: Decoding Thin US Equities & Rate Outlook
My Technical Analysis Webinar happens this THURSDAY at 2pm EST- Register here: https://t.co/1FSX6GwhN6 Yes, the air's gotten a bit thin again for US Equities while Put/call has plunged & some notable divergences in a few things that are NOT Semiconductors. ...
QRA's Pause Fuels Asset Rallies, Inflates Debt
The last time the QRA mattered we pivoted from short to long when Janet decided to stop increasing coupon issuance. Every QRA since has left issuance unchanged. Tomorrow will be no different. It's suppressed bond yields from going...
RGS Turns Around: FCF Rising, Refinancing Could Cut Valuation
$RGS, a hair salon franchisor, is crossing the Rubicon in its turnaround. FCF inflecting, closures slowing, massive refinancing incoming. Already cheap at 12x TTM FCF. If refinancing succeeds in cutting interest, co trades at 7-8x FCF. Full pitch: https://t.co/wcFgp9Utv7 https://t.co/XKWI6URRHG
Secular Bull Market Likely Continues for Years
We are in a secular bull market that could have many years left. I've been saying this since 2013 and don't think it is over yet. I discussed it all in our latest @CarsonResearch blog. https://t.co/NZH0IouJr4
Asia and Middle East Dominate $13T Sovereign Wealth
Where the World’s $13T in Sovereign Wealth Is Held Key Takeaways 👉 Asia and the Middle East control the majority of the world’s $13 trillion in sovereign wealth. 👉 Norway alone holds over $2.1 trillion, the largest sovereign wealth fund globally. 👉 Middle Eastern...
Simplify Your May Budget for Stress-Free Spending
Let me help you fix your budget so you’re not stressing over every latte, tracking 97 categories, or building a plan you can’t actually stick to. Use these to make your May budget simpler and more realistic to keep up...
Housing Supply Remains Low Despite Modest Listing Increase
Sellers aren’t flooding the market, and supply has overall been a bit stagnant. More listings than two years ago, but this is still historically low. It’s nothing like 2008 either. Any thoughts? What do you think about the quality of...
Daily Tracking of Largest Option Trades 2022‑2024 Updated Study
After blood, sweat, and tears working with data we finally updated a study following the largest option trade each year daily from 2022 - 2024. Screens for delta, time to exp, and liquidity were performed as well. More here -...
UMB Financial Reaffirms M&A Plans; Blue Owl Declines Offer
In Play Today: UMB Financial $UMBF reiterates future M&A requirements; Blue Owl rejects buyout offer | S&P Global Market Intelligence https://t.co/qDTqHhJTSr
Market Mispricings Are a Shopping List, Not a Warning
Most people think the casino and the stock market are different places right now. They're not wrong. Buffett sees it too. The difference: casinos don't occasionally misprice great businesses at 40 cents on the dollar. That's not a warning. That's a shopping list.
Algo Sells September Calls, Signaling Rally Overwrite Phase
An algo just sold September calls to open across a dozen or so names, likely getting to part of rally where see overwrites
AMD Poised to Beat Estimates; Watch GPU Ramp
$AMD reports after close. Consensus ~$9.84B / ~$1.30 EPS (+32% rev, +35% EPS). Stock up 74% in April sets a high bar. I think they will beat. I’m watching a few things: MI355 ramp, MI400/Helios timing, Meta 6GW progress, EPYC...
ECB May Hike in June,
🇪🇺 MNI sources: ECB set to hike in June, then keep options open 🇫🇷 France fighting back: *ECB'S VILLEROY: DON'T YET SEE SUFFICIENT SIGNS FOR RATE HIKE ✊
Dollar Remains Unrivaled; Alternatives Lack Appeal
My take on @soarfinancial on the 'de-dollarization' narratives: "The US dollar just DOMINATES EVERYTHING in the financial sphere. There just aren't any alternatives out there that are very attractive." LET'S FACE IT: THE USD IS THE BEST DIRTY SHIRT AROUND. https://t.co/Rtj6bTsKBc
Mega IPOs Push New Billionaires Toward US Asset Purchases
the equity supply/demand picture could definitely be complicated by the behemoth IPOs this year. but then i ask, what do newly minted multimillionaires and billionaires do with a flood of liquidity? marginal propensity to consume nearly topped out… i think they...
Apple's Gap Fill Bounce Signals Short-Term Stop
$AAPL small bounce on gap fill -- that's a decent short term stop now. https://t.co/rW1JOlBYhd
Micron Call Premiums Outpace SPY and QQQ Combined
massive call premiums in. dominating the options complex today $MU $SNDK $INTC the chase extends
US Index Rebounds to Record in 25 Days
I don't know if investors are truly "looking past the war in the Middle East," but it's pretty amazing that a major US stock market index took just 25 trading days to go from war jitters lows...to record highs 👇
She Built $45T CDS Market, Now Betting on Blockchain
She built the $45T credit default swap market by 28, led JPM’s top commodity desk, then bet big on blockchain. The woman who rewired finance.
SOX Index Surges 52% in 25 Days, Rare Historical Feat
$SOX(semiconductor index) rallied more than 52% in the last 25 trading days. That happened only 2 other times in history. https://t.co/VAARPUBtPX
New‑home Sales Surge as Prices Hit 2021 Low
New home sales beat expectations, jumping to a 682,000 annualized pace in March. A new home at the right price is finding a buyer. Median new home prices fell to their lowest since 2021—below existing home prices—helping support sales as...
Hormuz Closed, Yet European Gas Prices Remain Low
Hormuz remains shut. But European gas prices are still below the March high Futures fell Tuesday after the US downplayed the prospects of a return to active war with Iran (but Hormuz still shut) Weaker Asian demand has also helped to reduce...
Potential Multi‑Rate Hikes Create UST & SOFR Opportunities
Should the Fed in the next 12 months decide that it needs to hike rates, high odds it will need to hike more than once and more than 25 bps. UST and SOFR curves offering interesting opportunities
New Home Sales Rise; Median Prices Slip 16%
New Home Sales Increase to 682,000 Annual Rate in March Median New Home Price is Down 16% from the Peak due to Change in Mix https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-sales-increase-to-682000
GTA Home Sales Edge Up While Prices Keep Falling
Home Sales UP (A Bit) Prices DOWN In The GTA As predicted Resale Home sales in the GTA crawled up from 34 years lows to 26 year lows And House Prices just keep grinding DOWN Which is what I expect for the rest...
Apple Poised for New All‑time Highs After Earnings Support
Seems like $aapl on its way to make ATH’s now that the post earnings pivot support was defined
Stay Below Wealth Tax Threshold to Acquire Exiting Assets
The sweet spot is to stay right below whatever line has the wealth tax so you can buy the assets of the people forced to leave.
US Stocks Hold Steady as Europe Drags, Global Outlook Bullish
Vanguard global stock index is up about the same amount as the US market this year. Europe is acting as a drag so far this year with other markets (eg Brazil) outperforming strongly. Seems like international investors have got comfortable with...
Use a 351 Exchange to Tax‑Defer NVDA Holdings
Your client has $2M in NVDA they won't sell. "The taxes will kill me." Most advisors stop there. The 351 Exchange breaks the trap. Tax-deferred. ETF-based. Liquid day one. https://t.co/0ev7Bt8ru8
SPY Breaks $722 Support, Reversal Confirmed
You can not make this up...look at that aggressive reversal off $722 support on $SPY. I mentioned we are watching this range this morning, the same analysis stands.
Energy Loss Triggers Partial Tank Drain Update
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: May 5, 2026 - Losing Energy..." Emptying (some of) the tank- via The Lyons Share https://t.co/YN2guyRwrE https://t.co/7w0WHrePt0
Market Split: Chip Stocks Soar as Majors Slump
$V Daily. Visa, and the likes of $CMG $NKE $LULU all red again. Incredible to see the bifurcation in this market still playing out as memory chips like $MU rally into the sky and nearly disappear into the atmosphere. https://t.co/adJJ4TDZtB
Stabilized Yield Links Cap Rate to Renovation Returns
What's the relationship between cap rate, return on cost, and stabilized yield? This is arguably the most important relationship in real estate and most people don’t understand it at all It’s actually really simple Let’s start with the basics: - The cap rate is...
Cloudflare’s Pre‑Earnings Run Highlights Long‑Term Software Bet
Nice push for here Cloudflare making a pre-earnings run over this long-term 225 supply area. Echoing what I’ve said all year, this remains my favorite software investment idea. (long) $NET https://t.co/Zsw2Aiq1bH
Write Off Up to $100K When Small Startup Fails
A weird tax loophole with early stage startup investing that almost no one knows about: If you invest in a small startup that has raised less than 1M in funding And the business fails You can write off up to 50K (single) or...
Trump Eager for Xi Summit Amid Ongoing US‑China Tensions
Trump Says He Looks Forward to Xi Summit as US-China Tensions Persist - Bloomberg https://t.co/QmkfBpfXwd
UBS Predicts TAM Expansion, Shared Gains for Intel, AMD, ARM
Now this is the UBS chart that will be HOT debated. $INTC, $AMD, $ARM. Remember, this is TAM expansion, so dollars for everyone. This is share grab not share taking. For now... https://t.co/KfyXsEftNa
China Gains Soft Power as Trump Undermines US Image
China is building soft power as Trump burns bridges After years of struggling to match the global popularity of the US, Japan and South Korea, Beijing’s image is improving https://t.co/uW4Qwj47rV
Rising Oil and Rates Signal Impending Housing Collapse
Oil, rates, and housing – here's what I see coming: • Oil to $120-150 by fall • 10-year yield at 4.43% and climbing • Housing market about to get crushed • Higher fuel = recessionary You're spending the same but getting less." oil #economy #recession #housing...
SPY Shows Strong Positive Gamma Around $722‑$725
Positive gamma exposure across the board on $SPY this morning. Elevated positive exposure remains at $725, with considerable exposure from $722-$725. Expecting some chop in this range.
Global Oil Liftings Rebound to Pre‑war Levels.
CHART OF THE DAY: Impressive chart via @Vortexa. On a 7-day moving average, global oil liftings (into tankers) have **recovered to their pre-war level** due to a surge in liftings in the Americas. (Of course, that's helped by massive stock...
Rolled Short GOOGL Calls to Higher June Strike
rolled short $GOOGL May Exp 385 calls up and out to June 5 Exp 395s (against long June 375s)