Strong Fundamentals, yet $APP Down 26% YTD
How is $APP down 26% YTD? - 77% EBIT Margin - 117% ROIC - 34% 2028 EPS CAGR - Reasonable Valuation - 28% Below Consensus Price Target
AI Progress, Not Cash Flow, Drives Hyperscaler Value
The bears pointing to fall in hyperscaler free cash flow is a "dumb argument." "All that means is CapEx is high. - @WarrenPies The real "north star for this market": "is AI still improving," not 1's CapEx is 2's OpEx "Compute Demand...
Investing Success Requires Professional Effort, Not Just Luck
I have a friend with a $50M stock portfolio. I’m jealous of him. We’ve had roughly the same time horizon. He put his energy into picking stocks, I put mine into AppSumo and indexing on the side. His returns have absolutely...
Married Couples Can Earn $131k in Tax‑free Dividends
One of the best kept secrets of the tax code? Under the right circumstances- A married couple in the US can earn up to $131,100 in dividends every year and pay zero in taxes. Here's how: (thread 👇)
Nasdaq Hits New Highs, Equal
No new highs in equal weight S&P 500 yet. Just new highs in Nasdaq and Nasdaq/Equal Weight. I guess it still isn't "Main Street's turn yet". https://t.co/z68PySG0zf
Small‑Cap EPS Surges While S&P 500 Stagnates
Yes, S&P 500 EPS growth is narrow, but SmallCap 600 EPS growth looks great in the past year @yardeni https://t.co/rVQcOh3EpU
Healthcare & Discretionary Hit Multi-Year Lows, Rally Risks Rise
I'll discuss what Healthcare moving to 13-year lows vs SPX in Equal-wtd terms and Discretionary hitting 4 year lows relative to SPX means... We'll cover cycles, sentiment, the push into Software as Memory/Optical starts to wane.. and what the...
Start Maxing Your 401k in Your 20s, Reach Millions
I started this 401k account exactly 5 years ago. Not there yet but almost a quarter of million start investing. Your future will thank you, especially if you are in 20s and make 6 figure or around that at least...
US Retail Diesel and Gas Prices Near Record Highs
GS: US Retail Diesel and Gasoline Prices Increased to Just $0.2/gal and $0.5/gal Below Their Respective All-Time Highs https://t.co/7rCLdcv6vm
Scale Out, Trail Stops, Let Winners Run
The market is going parabolic, so let's discuss some trade management techniques. In this short video, I walk through a simple process for managing fast-moving markets without guessing: scaling out into strength, trailing stops, and letting winners run. $QQQ $SMH $SOXL $IGV...
Open Ceiling, Volatility Hedging Beats Soft Protection
Most hedged equity funds offer "soft protection" that fails on the way down and caps you on the way up. We spent April proving why an open ceiling and volatility-based hedging is the better way to play market rips. https://t.co/iwoFg5xu7R
High US Oil Prices Yet Recession Odds Remain Low
So US oil prices are remaining at very lofty levels with inevitable carry over effects on US (and global) GDP...but the probability of a recession has dropped to pre-war lows? Either the economy is less dependent on energy or we...
IWM Shows Bearish Engulfing After Steep Rally
$IWM Daily. Most eyes on Nasdaq, semis, oil, but so far today small cap ETF sporting classic bearish engulfing candle, pending the close of course. Took out yesterday's highs & lows after steep rally https://t.co/OKeRJzdniB
Shared IRS‑SSA Leadership Could Stop Improper EITC Payouts
🤯🤯🤯This @TIGTA report made my head explode. Perhaps, with @IRSnews and @SocialSecurity sharing a the same leader, we can figure out an efficient way to avoid EITC payments to ineligible (nonwork) SSNs. https://t.co/Dnfj1Y5f40 #IRS #tax https://t.co/EgtxWYygbm
Trim Profits as AI Rally Hits Market Extension
AI stocks have been on fire, and the market is getting extended here. Systematic strategies are rolling over, and a mechanical unwind is likely coming in the next week or so. The major indices are sitting at the top end of their...
Narrow Wall Street Rally Masks Deepening Energy Scarcity
Wall Street rebound driven by smallest number of stocks on record via Financial Times. Narrow gains are not good. My friends who are closest to the energy markets are completely flummoxed by the drop in futures prices for WTI and...
RXO at $10.50 Before Freight Recession Ends
RXO was a $10.50 stock when we first started talking about the end of the freight recession in November https://t.co/IPSD9ophPQ
USD/JPY Bounces Off Support, Intervention Risk Rising
Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Rebounds From Support - Intervention Risk Looms https://t.co/Wr1aKaid7z $USDJPY Weekly Chart https://t.co/OHUmJ1XLuA
New Chart Reveals Unsettling Dotcom Comparison Trends
All Dotcom comparisons have been like water off a duck's back to me... BUT... I just made this chart and it is moderately concerning https://t.co/xE9KahOmNa
Adjust Stops Using TA Levels, Let Price Guide Trades
I use levels that I have found using TA on daily, weekly, monthly charts to inch up stops. I like price to seek it's own level so I don't tell it where it is going. I let it...
Sell‑side Note on DataDog AI Proved Spot‑on
This sell side note on DataDog as leaning forward in AI Agentic capabilities was prescient (stock up 26%, got that $DDOG in them)
Peloton's Subscriptions Surge 33% CAGR to $1.6B
Over the past six years (Q3 FY20 - Q3 FY26), Peloton's TTM subscription revenues have increased from $304 million to $1,647 million (~33% CAGR) https://t.co/6eNOMmyfus
Iran's Regime Endures Hardship; Bombings Fail to Curb Missiles
I think we all knew that the Iranian regime is capable of withstanding extreme economic hardship given that the leadership cares nothing for the population. The fact that the bombing campaigns did little to neuter Iran's ability to launch missiles regionally...
NY Fed Inflation Expectations Hit 3.6%, Markets Unfazed
The New York Fed's consumer inflations expectations measure advanced to 3.6% - matching the highest reading since Sep 2023. Markets were already factoring in the inflation uptick it seems. No pop from the Dollar and Fed Fund futures forecast for 2026...
From Debt to $3M Portfolio: Replicable Success Steps
I went from -$25K in debt to a $3M real estate portfolio, quit my corporate job, and travelled to 55 countries by 30. And no, I didn’t win the lottery, post on only fans, or do anything illegal. Here’s what I did...
Money Shifts From Hardware to Software Ahead of AMD Report
MONEY ROTATES: into IGV from SMH ... see them fall? AMKR, CIEN, AMD, ARM, MRVL, COHR... And what did I write specifically - MAY 3RD?!? "Hardware Rotation Into Software is on my radar after AMD reports Wednesday and before Non-Farm Payrolls Friday." https://t.co/YjOCAGPxRS
Albemarle’s 2026 Forecast Shows Unusually Wide Ranges
Congrats to @AlbemarleCorp on a rising tide lifting their boat. Hard to believe they still have such large ranges on their forecast especially 2026, a year that is more than ⅓ over. $ALB. They should have the most insight on...
Oil Shortages Looming: Europe by May, US by July
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on when oil shortages will hit: "Parts of the world like Australia, Philippines, Thailand already are [in a shortage]. Europe will hit tank bottoms sometime in May. In the US it will be...
Markets Pull Back After Potential Blow‑Off Top
Was yesterday the blow-off top? Global equities now broadly lower $SPY $IWM $EFA $EEM https://t.co/QsyPYHi0hQ
Tier System Helps Capture Strength in SPY
It’s good to use a tier system as they sold some strength. $spy morning update https://t.co/lfq7t66rc9
AMD Gaps Higher on AI Euphoria, $360 Support Key
Impressive gap higher for $AMD post earnings, confirming that AI euphoria is alive and well in May. Will we see a "gap and run" as additional buyers come in? Or a "gap and fail" as investors are thrilled...
RNG: Rural Prosperity, Em
RNG is one of those rare win-win-wins — rural income, emissions reduction, energy security — and yet it still makes some environmentalists nervous. The political complexity is real, but so is the opportunity. https://t.co/od6g2nplAL
Commodity Supercycle Begins: Bloomberg Index Up 28%
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has reached over 140 points. The index is now up 28% this year. As I’ve said, "We're entering a commodity supercycle. You want to be long commodities.” https://t.co/up5X1itoJL
Possible Russell Sell Divergence, yet Upward Continuation Remains
Rus daily sell divergences a possibility....Only one day down today and today could still be a continuation bar for more up but ....but... https://t.co/nWtQbLtg58
Energy Crunch Will Continue Despite Iran Peace Deal, Says Maersk
Maersk Says Energy Crunch to Persist Even If Iran Peace Deal Struck. Not surprising. This extended mess will not fix itself overnite. https://t.co/qJBag33bE9
Goldman Sachs Says Amazon, Alphabet Inflate S&P Earnings
Goldman Sachs flags Amazon and Alphabet for inflating S&P 500 earnings growth figures $AMZN $GOOGL https://t.co/49fg3hccI3
RMB Gains Won’t Damp China’s Trade Advantage
The mild appreciation of the RMB is unlikely to have much impact on trade flows. China's price advantage is greater than CNY gains and demand for many other products (solar panels, rare earths, e.g.) may not be sensitive to fx....
Five Tech Giants Power Over Half S&P Gains
“.. Just five tech stocks — Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Broadcom and Apple — have accounted for more than half of the S&P’s recent gains ..” @FT https://t.co/0wPUwvM51X https://t.co/KeYJ03s78G
Home Types Diverge: Prices May Stall, Not Rise
When Will House Prices Finally Turnaround? When Do Home Prices Stop Falling? Two Ideas: 1) Different TYPES Of Homes may have very different futures 2) Prices can stop falling & not immediately start to go up And most of the Real Estate Industry...
Tesla Eyes Breakout Above 20‑day SMA
$TSLA assault on 20sma -- base just under it and then thru would be ideal. Already at top of BB so extended for an attack https://t.co/2sgce9OQ1U
Masa's Arm Stake Yields $172B Gain, Eclipsing
Masa took Arm private for $32B in 2016. Went pubic again in 2024 and market cap is now $234B. He owns 87%, which is around $204B. So, Masa is now up $172B on Arm, which is more than 10x the amount...
Aggressive SOXX Short Targets $400, Stop at $530
Firing 1 of 2 bullets at a $500 $SOXX short. Stop loss at $530. Have 1 more bullet to add if we see higher prices. Targeting $400.
Consider Buying $PLNT After 30% Morning Drop
Initiation on $PLNT if looking to get up to speed (down ~30% this morning) https://t.co/SFj0PYXDqT
Weekend Fund IV Democratizes Venture Investing for All
Announcing Weekend Fund IV, backed by operators and founders (and maybe you). When we raised Weekend Fund III, we did something different. Toward the end of our raise, we announced the fund in public and accepted applications from LPs. Our goal was...
Time to Position for Pullback as Rotation Ends
if you've been riding this rotation up the past few weeks great job. but now is the time to be positioning for a sharp pullback. flotation by rotation is ending. $QQQ $SPY $IWM
Arm Shares Fall Despite Strong AI CPU Demand
MyPOV: @Arm’s stock sinks even as it reveals strong interest in its CPUs for #AI servers https://t.co/UPSBFc3WSA @SiliconANGLE @Mike_Wheatley “More than four out of five of Arm’s employees are engineers, and so investors may rightly have questions about...” - @holgermu @constellationr #AIWars
Bank of Israel Must Surprise Markets Amid Soaring Shekel
With the shekel continuing to rise, people are asking what would Stanley Fischer have done. My post from 2010 on @SeekingAlpha explains the Fischer model for Central Bankers. And yes I think the Bank of Israel needs to do something to...
WTI Plunges 11% as Rumor‑Driven Headlines Swirl
US benchmark crude oil (WTI) is down -11% over the past two days. Since both sides likes to make their rap battle threats on social, they should lay out clearly their terms on social so we can follow along. This market...
AAON Surges 50% After HVAC Data Center Award
$AAON is up 50% on results, wow, name identified as a Data Center winner in HVAC back in October https://t.co/WbIB6trghM
Nickel Market Ignoring Sherritt Exit, Chinese Consolidation Looms
The market is not pricing in the nickel news of Sherritt leaving Cuba. S has material until June. Can the Cuban's manage the mine? What about the tailings issues? If Canada no longer can process material...