Oil Expected to Decline as Iran Conflict Likely Subsides
$USOIL - Given that it's highly unlikely that the war in Iran will resume crude oil should generally move lower over the coming weeks, with occasional bounces whenever there's news about an escalation of the situation like the ones we had this week. https://t.co/agI1P5XckG
S&P 500 Tech P/E Stagnates Mid‑Range Since 2020
The S&P 500 Expanded Tech P/E is right in the middle of its range since 2020... quite boring, actually @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/7FQmhF8OUY
Management Rejects $500K Funding; Investors Demand Bigger
Multiple people have told the Koala this morning if that C$500,000 proposed placement that TNR Gold $TNR.V $TRRXF management implicitly rejected by refusing to engage “needs to be bigger” they’d take a piece of it Not sure why a company that...
Memory and Photonics Stocks Outpace Magnificent 7 as AI Shifts Downstream
Memory chip makers and photonics companies are outperforming almost every Magnificent 7 stock this year. The AI trade is quietly shifting downstream. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/psFbwiQSDw
Emerging Markets Showing Unprecedented Relative Strength
I've never seen such relative strength in Emerging Markets... of course, I was in high school from 2003-2006 (not looking at charts) $EEM @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/Z5B2ZbCVtI
US Refineries Ramp Up Ahead of Summer Driving Surge
Summer driving season approaching - U.S. refineries have the pedal to the metal right now - triggering stress points.
MidCap Tech Soars While Consumer Discretionary Stumbles
Eye-popping MidCap Tech returns MidCap Consumer Discretionary returns point to a very weak consumer backdrop @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/q3db3UUSfs
UK Yields Exceed Italy, Not a Weakness, ECB Cap Effect
The UK's long-term gov't bond yields (lhs) are now far above those of Italy (rhs). This doesn't mean the UK is in worse shape. It's just a reflection of past ECB actions to aggressively cap Italian yields. I talked about...
Raises Vanish Into Fixed Bills, Not Real Income
Fixed Costs Get Paid Before You Do A raise sounds like freedom until the bills arrive first. That is the eighth paycheck illusion. People talk about wages as if the money reaches the worker untouched. It does not. The paycheck enters a system. Rent is already...
TMT Outperforms; Energy, Healthcare, Others Lag
TMT is crushing it in the last month+ Energy, Health Care, Financials, Staples, Utes lagging @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/dCOm3pTZuB
Own Real Estate, Turn Taxes Into Your Ally
You get taxed when you earn money. Taxed when you spend money. Taxed when you invest money. Unless… You own real estate. Then the tax code suddenly becomes your best friend.
60% of Owners Limit Loan Talks to 2‑5 Lenders
Weekend data analysis after speaking with 250 small business owners over the past few months. Here is an interesting pattern around debt financing. One stood out immediately: Roughly 60% of owner-operators only speak with 2-3, max 5 lenders when evaluating financing options. I thought...
SMID Stocks Poised to Outperform as Growth Broadens
Morgan Stanley: As Economic Growth Broadens, SMID To Outperform SMID Earnings To Experience a Cyclical and Structural Tailwind SMID Equities Remain Extremely Cheap vs. Large Cap https://t.co/8lzqbJFZyX
Copper's Record Highs Yet Cheap vs Gold—Brief Rally Likely
It’s wild to see copper hitting record highs while still trading near historical lows when priced in gold terms. The copper-to-gold ratio remains nearly 80% below its 2006 peak. More importantly: Periods where copper became this cheap relative to gold have historically not...
Advisors Guide Clients to Tax‑Efficient RSU Sale Strategies
Creating An Effective RSU Sale Strategy With Clients: How financial advisors can play a valuable role in helping clients manage their vested RSUs in a way that reduces concentration risk and meets cash flow needs in a tax-efficient manner. (Daniel Zajac) https://t.co/sje8maE7MA...
Strong‑balance‑sheet Stocks Stay Pricey Amid Capital Cost Pressure
GS: We see limited scope for further rotation into weak-balance-sheet stocks, as the cost of capital is under pressure from Fed policy and AI-related demand for capital. Premium for strong balance sheet stocks remains elevated versus history https://t.co/eUHYCy1ace
Tiered Trades Follow SPX 8/21-Day Trend
Position trades long with a tier system works when the $spx is above the 8/21day. They short below the 8/21day. Depends on the active sequence. Which names working for u? https://t.co/NABdJRkKl3
ESPN's Tiny Revenue Gains Mask Massive Rights Costs
⬆️ On the top-line: #ESPN paid significant equity (10% @ $30 billion valuation) to squeak out minimal top-line revenue growth in its first consolidated quarterly earnings reports (Q2/FY2026): reporting $4.6 billion I n revenue for its sports division, solely crediting...
China's April Crude Imports Plunge Below 2019 Levels
Big drop in crude import volumes out of China in April Imports dipped below 2019 levels Clearly helped stabilize the global market (gas imports also down) https://t.co/XJmsiZkLkp
SoFi’s Explosive Growth, yet Market Still Confused
What did $SOFI do to deserve this? Last quarter numbers: - Members up 35% - Revenues up 41% - Profits up 134% All-in net charge off rate remained stable around 4.4%. Make it make sense..
First $100K Is Hardest; Then Growth Accelerates
It took me 56 months to hit my first $100K. After that, each $100K came much faster: $200K — 19 months $300K — 6 months $400K — 4 months $500K — 8 months $600K — 9 months $700K — 2 months The first $100K is about saving. After that,...
Rising Chip Prices Boost Chinese Export Volume Growth
Estimating Chinese export and import volumes is challenging now, as rising chip prices are pushing up export and import prices -- if March prices carried over, April export volumes were around 15% ... and export volume growth is accelerating at the...
Patience Beats Trading: Real Wealth Lies in Waiting
“The big money is not in the buying and selling but in the waiting.” - Charlie Munger https://t.co/T1iZkS0zkc
Tesla Q1 Dip Half Previous Years, Bottomed April
this year's Q1 pullback in $TSLA about 1/2 as severe as the prior two years. All three bottomed in early to mid April (when bearish comments accelerated). https://t.co/CqRvMbdoEh
SNDK's Recent 50% Jump Compresses Time
each circle contains 50% price appreciation. it gives a nice visual of the time compression for the most recent 50% move 1k to 1500. $SNDK https://t.co/AYXARGSuMJ
NVDA Guidance Lifts Semiconductor Forecasts, Stocks Underreact
Probably obvious to everyone but here it is. The big change in earnings expectations for semiconductors occured soon after Jensen Huang took the stage at $NVDA GTC developers conference and gave forward guidance. That was March 16-17th. Analyst...
Regional Leaders’ Handshake Boosts Carabao Trading Volume
I think this is why the volumes in Carabao have picked up: Leaders of Cambodia, Philippines and Thailand shake hand. Positive for all Cambodia-related stocks on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. https://t.co/uWFbQr7iBF
S&P Hits Record as 5% of Stocks Plunge
"Look, I know none of this stuff matters anymore. But my G*d. This will be the 4th time the S&P 500 $SPY has hit a record high while 5% of its members fall to 52-week lows. 1. July 1929, 2....
Start Saving Early: Mistakes Pay Off Later
If I had a time machine, I'd tell my younger self that most mistakes are worth making. Except not saving aggressively for retirement while in your 20s. Compound interest is much more fun when you're an old guy who saved...
Build an Algo Trading Hedge Fund in Six Minutes
This guy literally explains how to build an algorithmic trading hedge fund from scratch in under 6 minutes. This is crazy:
Tech Industries Show Wider ROIC Gaps than Consumer/Industrial
Michael Mauboussin on ROIC by industry: "The dispersion of returns is generally lower for industries in the consumer and industrial sectors and higher for industries in the technology sector." "A company’s ROIC is determined in part by the industry it competes...
G10 Long-Term Yields Hit Record Highs Amid Debt Surge
In the UK, long-end yields are at all-time highs, but - if you look across the G10 - that's true for many other countries as well. The US, Japan, France and Australia all have the highest yields in a very...
Investors See Middle East Conflict De‑escalating Amid Ceasefire Violations
Week Ahead: Trump-Xi and US-China CPI: There were several developments to note last week, but arguably the most important was that investors are optimistic that the Middle East war is winding down despite some violations of the ceasefire. June WTI...
AI Threatens Microsoft’s Core Dominance, Hedge Fund Warns
One of the world’s top hedge funds just made a striking AI statement. Chris Hohn’s TCI sharply reduced its Microsoft position, warning that AI could eventually threaten parts of its core software dominance. That is the paradox of AI. Even today’s winners...
Strong US Data Yet Dollar Declines, Signaling Regime Shift
I'm doing a live stream at 9 am (ET) this morning. I'll talk about how much the Dollar is falling and how we're seeing mounting signs of regime change, whereby strong US data see the Dollar fall. That's how it...
Brazilian Real Leads EM Gains, Set to Dip Below 4.50
The Brazilian Real is now the best-performing EM currency since the start of the war, leaving aside the Hungarian Forint, which is idiosyncratic and about Orban losing the election. The Real has a lot further to go and - unlike...
Dollar Declines vs EM Despite No Peace Deal
It's remarkable how much the Dollar is falling versus EM (blue), even though we don't even have a peace deal yet. Dollar down is a really high-conviction trade that people are putting on already now because they know they'll get...
Gas Prices Stay Above $4.50, Diesel Near Records
Heading into the peak U.S. driving season, the latest AAA data show regular gas (petrol) prices holding above $4.50 a gallon and diesel prices near record highs. #economy #markets #gas
CPI Data and Yen Moves Dominate Upcoming Week
Week ahead highlights: US and PRC CPI, Bessent talks $JPY in Japan, and G2 summit in Beijing. After ordering Fed to check exchange rates in Jan, Bessent quiet on recent BOJ intervention. Outcome of Xi-Trump likely minimal. See...
Gold's Drivers: Geopolitics, De‑Dollarization, Yields, Not Headlines
I joined @cnbcarabiatv to discuss what's actually moving gold right now — geopolitical fragmentation, de-dollarization, real yields, and why energy shocks can temporarily override the traditional safe-haven narrative. Strategic allocation is about context, not headlines. Discipline in sizing matters more than the...
Pre‑Trump China Talks Spark Hope, but Doubts Linger
The timing is notable, coming just days before President Trump’s trip to China. Some hope these talks will foster more constructive relations on trade, security, and technology. Others see little chance of breakthroughs, given the challenges in this bilateral relationship. #economy...
Charting’s Self‑Fulfilment: Proof of Its Predictive Power
“The self-fulfilling prophecy is generally listed as a criticism of charting. It might be more appropriate to label it as a compliment. After all, for any forecasting technique to become so popular that it begins to influence events, it would...
Buy Short‑Dated Refined‑Product Futures Amid Tight Global Oil Stocks
GS: global oil stocks at ~98 DoD; rapid depletion, regional concentration and naphtha/LPG/jet shortages risk local fuel runs. Trade: buy short-dated refined-product futures. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Spotting the Stock with Maximum Smart Money vs Shorts
Hey @grok Look at the last 90 days of short interest growth and insider buying combined. Which stock has the most extreme “smart money loading while shorts pile in” setup right now?
Concentrated Portfolio: Current Holdings Outshine New Ideas
Portfolio is pretty concentrated right now, and honestly, from an opportunity cost POV, few ideas excite me as much as some of my current holdings.
Study More, Trade Less: Master Entries Quickly
If you really want to improve your trading: Do more chart studies and backtests than trading. Spend hours studying to spend minutes on entries and exits.
Aging Demographics Boost Senior Housing; DHC Stock Buy
Macro: aging demographics support senior housing. Key: DHC Q1 SHOP NOI +160bp, normalized FFO +131% YoY, occupancy +110bp; revenue miss. Risks: 7.8x leverage, 2028 maturities. Trade: buy on weakness to $7.50 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Russia’s Revived Commodity Wealth Fuels Putin’s Renewed Aggression
Putin didn’t suddenly become belligerent because of NATO. The real shift was power. As commodity revenues returned, Russia regained options, confidence and leverage. And with that came the re-emergence of much older ambitions. That was the moment the trajectory changed. #Geopolitics #Russia #Putin #Ukraine...
AI Investment Shifts From Nvidia to Full Stack
The AI trade is starting to broaden beyond NVIDIA. As AI shifts from chatbots to autonomous agents, investors are rotating into companies like Intel, AMD and infrastructure players tied to CPUs, memory and connectivity. The next phase of AI may reward the...
Bull Flag Breakout Hits 7300, Eyes Higher Targets
Big Picture View: 1 week ago, when #ES_F was 7180, I posted it spent the week building a bull flag 7198-7080. I was looking for a breakout to 7300+, we got it Plan Next Week: ES needs to digest this and...