Japanese Mortgage Guarantor Faces Yield Impact, Low ROE Concerns
Japanese dominant independent mortgage guarantor with extremely high profit margins How they are hurt/helped by rising yields is very interesting to me Write-up from shareholder saying their ROE is too low (& they hold too much capital) https://t.co/BVNg6v8bps
JD.com Gold Prices Jump to 1,134 RMB/Gram
Physical gold bars on JD.com the Chinese retailer have surged this weekend, from 1,092 RMB to 1,134RMB/g, equivalent to $4,980 to $5,171 per ounce.
Early 5-Day Gains Signal Strong 2026 Market Performance
The first 5 days in 2026 saw stocks up more than 1%. This might seem random, but it is actually one of the more accurate indicators out there. Higher for the year more than 87% of the time and up close...
Tesla Needs Weekly Close Above 417 to Confirm Low
$TSLA - Probably made an intermediate term low last week, after closing the week above the yearly pivot at 387. It needs a weekly close above the 20 week MA(currently at 417) in order to confirm the low and head...
Usage‑Based SaaS Overtakes Seat Model in Valuation
SaaS market has re-rated pricing models. From 2019–2021, seat-based companies earned a valuation premium for predictability. By 2026, that premium has flipped as investors increasingly prefer subscription models tied to usage, output, and AI-driven value creation. Seat-based SaaS traded above other subscription...
Russell 2000 EPS Growth Outpaces S&P 500
18% S&P 500 EPS growth seen this year... just 11% for the S&P 500 EW. But 44% for the Russell 2000. GS https://t.co/ZYTwDJ60Km
Avoiding Recession Leads to Double‑Digit Stock Gains
We never expected a recession this year (including four weeks ago) and history shows that years that are able to avoid a recession see stocks up double digits nearly 7 out of 10 years. https://t.co/k2LDYKyttL
TLT Outperforms USO Tenfold Amid Oil Price Shifts
Is TLT vs. USO a 10x? From the 2018 low to 2020 high, TLT advanced about 10x vs. USO (total return). From the 2008 low to this year's nadir so far, TLT/USO is up about 10x (was up roughly 130x to...
Record Earnings, AI Surge, Dovish Fed Signal Bullish Year
Good time to recall that only 12 times (the dirty dozen) have stocks lost more than double digits during the year and all of them had some very bad things happen. This year we have record earnings and profit margins, AI...
Leverage Small Deals by Turning Sellers Into Banks
"If you owe the bank $100, that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100MM, that's the bank's problem" What people don't realize is that you can create this exact scenario with way less money Let's say you're looking to buy a...
S&P 500's Rare Six‑of‑Eight Day Gap Surge
The S&P 500 has gapped higher in six of the past eight trading days. Going back to 1982, we've only seen that four times before: June-July 2025 January 2025 August-September 2020 January 2018
OptionsHawk Launches Limited-Time MAX Trials Again
OptionsHawk is opening MAX Trials for the next 2-3 weeks for the first time in over a year Figure, heart of earnings season, come take a look at what we do and what we are working on! https://t.co/VFJnxPUmEP
Oil Experts Wrong: Dated Brent Drops $20 Overnight
Most oil "experts" are industry shills. They told us that Dated Brent can't fall because the physical shortage is too great. Well, Dated Brent fell $20 in one day on Friday. The stuff from these guys is just scare-mongering. Same...
Early Bull Run: Only 30% of Market Upswing Completed
From 1989 through 2000, the market (ie $SPY) made 327 new highs. From 2013 through 2022, the market (ie $SPY) made 347 new highs. From 2024 through 2026, the market (ie $SPY) has made 103 new highs. Its possible we're only 30% of...
Top 10 US Firms Hit Record Earnings Share
The 10 largest US companies haven't contributed this much to total earnings in the modern era GS https://t.co/KBJshEbLTw
Intel's Valuation over Doubles Dot‑com Peak
"Intel... now trades for more than 130 times its projected earnings for this year, far above the peak multiple of 60 times that the stock briefly touched during the dot-com bubble." https://t.co/yO388d0820 https://t.co/2HjelEQb7W
Turkey's Record Current‑account Deficit Stems From Domestic Policies
Turkey's in trouble for the same old reason. The current account deficit in Jan & Feb 2026 is the widest ever except for Jan & Feb 2023, when Lira ended up sharply devaluing. Turkey's problems have nothing to do with...
Insiders Bet on Ag Growth at 6x EV/EBITDA
Lots happening at Ag Growth $AFN The shares dropped quite a bit on poor results and the dividend cut. The CFO recently resigned. Shreholder Plantro is publicly pushing the company to launch a full sale process, arguing the company’s latest earnings...
Tech Rebounds as Median S&P Lags Record Highs
This measure shows that the median S&P 500 stock is far below its 52wk high, while the Index is at a record. Practically, it points to major sector rotation in the last 3 weeks, with tech stocks coming storming back.. while...
VSNT Eyeing STRZ Despite Divergent Growth Forecasts
$STRZ Stock ripping lately... CEO incentive comp is old news (Nov 2025) Hmm... VSNT likely acquirer here... they want non-linear revenue streams and STRZ gets 70% of revenue from digital sell-side penciling ~3% EBITDA growth '26-28 for STRZ vs. 12% decline at VSNT https://t.co/kOTAwW2Pc3
Maekawa Report Reveals Why Japan-China Rebalancing Falters
I have often mentioned Japan's 1986 Maekawa Commission Report as a way of understanding why Japan's (and by extension, China's) rebalancing was never going to be easy. For those who might be interested, I asked ChatGPT to summarize the report...
Global Economic Calendar: Key Data Releases This Week
Everyone will be watching the headlines but don't miss this busy global calendar 👇 🇺🇸 US Retail Sales 🇪🇺 EZ -GE ZEW -GE IFO -EZ PMIs -GE PPI 🇬🇧 UK -Jobs -CPI -PMIs -Retail Sales 🇨🇦 CA -CPI & PPI -Retail Sales 🇯🇵 JP CPI 🇳🇿 NZ -Trade -CPI
Nasdaq Surges as Markets Overlook US‑Iran Tensions
My article for the week ahead: Nasdaq and Risk Assets Soar as Markets Ignore US-Iran Questions https://t.co/oj3oTBAvsM https://t.co/XKDWaWJJbx
ECB Should Wait, Not Rush Rate Decisions
ECB better off waiting than rushing into rate action, Demarco says https://t.co/IAAWNv0BDq via @jrandow https://t.co/K09LIzQVbh
Key Geopolitics and Economic Data Shaping Monday Trades
Middle East Ceasefire, US Retail Sales, Global PMIs Join us on Monday at 8:45am ET to dive into everything that will impact your trades 👇 https://t.co/IpQ8H0G5Ss https://t.co/IpQ8H0G5Ss
NASDAQ 100's Top 10 Stocks Surge Over 45% in 2026
Here are the top 10 best performing stocks in the NASDAQ 100 so far in 2026 🥇 Western Digital $WDC +116%🟢 🥈 Seagate $STX +99%🟢 🥉 Intel $INTC +86%🟢 Marvell $MRVL +64%🟢 Monolithic Power $MPWR +62%🟢 Micron $MU +59%🟢 Lam Research $LRCX +56%🟢 Applied Materials $AMAT +54%🟢 ARM Holdings...
Median S&P500 up 3.8%—still Not Impressive
The Median S&P500 stock is up 3.8% so far in 2026. What's wrong with that?
SPY Gap May Fill; DIA Shows Reversal Confirmation
GAP SYNCHRONY Distance vs. Friday Close: SPY: 702.78 (1.3%) RSI 73.5 QQQ: 642.18 (-1.2%) RSI 74.5 DIA: 486.6 (-2.1%) RSI 69 Daily Volume validating reversal candles, mostly on DIA. Healthy consolidation ahead. Will the $686.3 gap be filled for SPY? (-3.7% downside).
Find the Sweet Spot Between Saving and Living
And there in lies what I refer to as the “great balance”. How much to save and how much to spend? I have wrestled with this a lot over the course of the last 16-17 years. And over the last 4-5...
Silence Cost Siblings $1.8 Million in Lost Growth
$1.8 million. Sitting in a joint estate account for 2 years. 3 siblings. One dad, now gone. Nobody at the dinner table wanted to be the one to raise it. So nobody did. Here is what 2 years of silence actually cost them.
India's IOC Logs Second‑largest Weekly Russian Crude Imports
🇮🇳 India’s IOC just recorded the second-highest weekly volume of Russian crude imports ever — only behind the record set in third week of June 2023 https://t.co/slsuYNxtUf
Begin with a Family Mission, Then Build Trusts
Start with a family mission statement. Core values, governance documents, who gets what and when. Once that is in place, the legal structures follow naturally. Trusts are just contract law and the options are wide. Dynasty trusts, spendthrift provisions, three...
Stocks Overvalued, Crypto Slumps Amid Hormuz Tensions
⚠️ S&P 500 hit a RECORD HIGH Friday. BTC bled from $77,957 peak to $75,236 across the weekend. Meanwhile: Iran formally SHUT the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers under fire. US prepping to board Iran-linked ships (WSJ). Something gives in 72 hours. I...
High Income, High House, Cash Drain: A Financial Trap
You’re 34, $280k TC, dual income, 1 kid. $300k in your 401k. $12k in checking. You just bought a $950k house. 20% down wiped your cash. Mortgage + taxes + childcare = $8,400/mo. **Here’s the trap**:
Global Economy Splits Into Diverging Realities This Week
FYI, the links to my weekly look at the global economy and markets, including what has evolved into a tale of two (if not more) realities. https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-550?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-w4wbe/?lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3Btfqi0xMNTveCEbORqFBpMw%3D%3D #economy #markets
Profit From Microcap Extremes: Buy Low, Sell High
Investor expectations swing wildly in most microcaps from euphoria to despair and vice versa which results in the stocks swinging wildly. It's on the extremes where the astute stock picker knows when to buy and sell and take advantage of...
Family Offices Boost Secondary Allocations, Yet Access Remains Limited
Family Offices and secondaries 28% of family offices plan to increase their secondary allocations Global secondary transactions topped $240B last year But having money is no guarantee of access to secondaries
Turtle Soup Signals Bearish Break After Liquidity Sweep
📊 GBPUSD – Weekly Forecast 🚀 🔎 On the Weekly Time Frame, we have a clear Turtle Soup setup 🪤 🎯 This indicates a potential bearish move after liquidity is taken 📌 Trading Plan: 👉 First, we wait for Previous Week High sweep 💧 👉...
China Wins Back Elite Talent, Boosting Tech Outlook
Macro: China reclaims elite talent as US social strain and visa barriers drive returns. Key: media push, R&D incentives, income/prices. Risks: slowdown, geopolitics. Overweight China tech 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Malaysia's Fuel Crisis: Import Reliance Contradicts Official Optimism
The Prime Minister of Malaysia says 85% of Malaysians aren’t affected by the fuel crisis. The MOF says Malaysia consumes 700,000 barrels a day and produces 350,000. It imports the rest — and nearly 40% of those imports travel through...
AI Boosts Cloud Demand; Overweight Hyperscalers Recommended
AI expands software TAM; IaaS/PaaS and GPU/CPU demand will drive cloud growth. Risks: niche disruption, legacy churn. Trade: overweight hyperscalers & cloud infra. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Five Funds Rarely Provide True Diversification
5 funds. That's what most clients are told is a diversified portfolio. 5 funds is almost never diversification. Open them up and you usually find the same 30 stocks repeated five ways.
China Stockpiles Cheap Russian Oil; India Overpays
China's Q1 Russian crude imports hit a record high — way above past levels. Thanks to Indian refiners yielding to Trump’s pressure and cutting back, Beijing was stockpiling that oil on the cheap. Is this important? Yes, China is energy-secured. India...
Buy Stocks Like Groceries, Not Perfume, for Wealth
Most investors shop for stocks like perfume, chasing the scent of what's hot. Benjamin Graham shopped for stocks like groceries. One method makes you feel sophisticated. The other makes you wealthy.
TravelSky: China’s 95% Air Travel Transaction Monopoly
What's the ideal asset to own? How about an air travel monopoly that takes a cut out of almost every transaction in China? That's exactly what TravelSky (696 HK) is, with a 95% domestic market share. https://t.co/iSe3O4t9V1
India Switches to Yuan for Iranian Oil Purchases
This reported now in BT but the news several days old. We discussed it in the Daily Energy Report: Iran set the conditions for LPG and oil imports. Desperation is relative. India settles Iranian oil...
US Expands Energy
I have to admit it — it genuinely scares me when my predictions turn out to be right U.S. seeks bigger energy foothold in India.
Three‑step Checklist to Spot Exploding Small‑cap Stocks
"How do I find small-cap stocks before they pop?" Saw this on r/stocks again this week Here's the actual checklist I use: - Market cap $500M-$5B (small enough to be ignored) - Insider buying in last 90 days (real money, not 10b5-1) - Revenue growing...
One‑Third of WA Miners Halt Exploration Over Fuel Costs
One-third of WA miners freeze exploration programs as high fuel prices bite, according to AMEC survey https://t.co/PixWo2BS6s
Grumpy Old Men’s Playbook: Gold, Real Assets, Bearish Outlook
Perfect newsletter for grumpy old men: • Complain about western politicians • Buy gold because inflation is out of control • References to the South Sea bubble and 1929 • Buy real assets: mining / shipping / oil & gas • Lean bearish, because...