Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql

$LVS Daily. Short idea. Macau & Singapore focused now after selling Vegas properties. Disruption in air traffic in parts of Asia beyond Middle East adversely affects them. Technically ripe to lose 200-day m.a.. https://t.co/3yQJuxTnOV
Macro: credit litigation; GLAS sues Annington for £1.56bn over 2032–2051 bonds. Key: issuer rejects acceleration. Risk: repayment shock, guarantor strain. Trading insight: avoid Annington bonds. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Jim Cramer says the oil market is signaling the Iran war won't spiral, and that's bullish for stocks, per CNBC 🤦🏻♂️

My Final Decision for All IPO : Avoid ❌ So, Out of 8 IPO - I personally asked to avoid all 8 IPO 🥲 It was best decision as per market conditions and situation. 🔴 Because, all of these IPO listed -ve @champ_trader

Last March, the New York Times wrote that the US was supplying detailed ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) to Ukraine so that Ukraine could more effectively kill Russian targets (with US-made weapons.) We appear to be approaching dangerous territory. https://t.co/aBoGhQCU2x

Bullish charts keep going up. And when they stop going up, that's no longer bullish. But if they don't stop going up, then they don't stop being bullish. $ROST https://t.co/hHdgbWj9aO

Oracle Plans Thousands of Job Cuts in Face of AI Cash Crunch “In September @Oracle disclosed in a filing it was planning its largest-ever restructuring, which will cost as much as $1.6B in the current fiscal year ending May, incl severance...

Who knows whether its valid or not, but the oil curve is fading the Iran war so far and seems to think this wraps up pretty quickly. No idea whether that's valid pricing or not but does increase the tension...
I did a rant this morning live in my trading room of what to buy and what to avoid and what to short and my HIGH conviction Iran Risk Is Not Priced In - as I have been writing about...

$AMZN > 225 = breakout above all the moving averages $AMZN < 200 = breakdown of key support $AMZN between 200 and 225 = 💤 https://t.co/GbWTIoHDaR
If you want to make real money in the market consistently, stop trying to call tops and bottoms and Monday-morning quarterbacking what you could have done. Focus on managing risk relative to reward and turning over your edge. Then, your...
loonie strengthens amid middle east chaos. upside of being a quasi petrocurrency i guess https://t.co/kfnMOPwxal

ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION: What happens when you take the MSCI EM Index and start kicking out autocratic countries with low freedom scores (eg China, Russia) and use that excess budget to load up on freer countries? You crush the benchmark....
Defensive leadership getting smashed which will erode those "breadth" metrics.... But please...cherry pick some bullish stuff for me.... *Note - Dogshit stocks rallying doesn't count.

$XLV - Failed breakout...annoying.... I would avoid those who share the breakouts - then go radio silent when they fail. It's called intellectual dishonesty... https://t.co/OK82rfxZZU

“The firms are using repo-like loans from one particular investment bank to mask debt, the letter says.” https://t.co/YLQH5cPi6f

since @federalreserve starting cutting rates this cycle (Sep '24), U.S. 10-year yields $TNX have risen... the green circles show the rate cuts since... https://t.co/g34w7tO0BZ
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...

Boston Scientific $BSX -34.1% from highs... another contestant on the 52-week new lows list... https://t.co/MCT33YSBqJ

Live look at $MRVL chart ahead of its scheduled earnings today. Options expiring March 20th show an implied volatility reading of 89.5%, which is about a (+/-) $11.41 move from the underlying stock.

while the Canadian bank industry group $ZEB (inside of financials) has been strong, the $TSX financial sector itself has not been strong, relative to the broader index itself... here's $XFN vs. $TSX on 4-time frames: top right: 8/20EMA top left: 20EMA/50SMA bottom left:...
We don’t do customization and we don’t build homes on other people’s land. We buy land. we build homes on that land. and then we sell those homes to American families

$CRM putting some into let it ride. Still own trade shares. 205 next level on radar entry to the overhead gap https://t.co/aLYT4HZjaj
The HFT algos/CTA trend followers don't discount geopolitics very well. If @hkuppy is right, he makes a real case why active management is of ultimate importance when there is a real global change. The VIX is not mean reverting this time,...

S&P 600 up 9% YTD. S&P 500 flat. Tech lagging. Energy leading. Value crushing growth. This isn't a head fake. This is a regime change. The small-cap rotation is real and it's getting started. https://t.co/AYVusIGbRd
Home sellers are relisting properties at fastest pace in a decade, but spring supply is still low https://t.co/nuOAzLHBun

Even more novel idea: Use manufacturing to build NICE housing in the places people want to live https://t.co/gmQAr9C8Ap
When I look at total assets of the ETF market, commodities less than 2% of total assets. ETF investors definitely under weight
Demand from Alibaba and Other Giants Boosts China’s Homegrown Memory Suppliers Wait, are the controls on memory "working" and did they make sense in the first place? https://t.co/c6dfq2skXK

FWIW - Sure feels like something to keep a close eye on no now that we've arrived at 43.9999. https://t.co/00dDXuJBOI
You get that feeling the tape is heavy, like they want to open the floodgates. Then you remember how choppy it’s been — breakdowns get bought, only to be sold right at potential breakout levels. https://t.co/CD3aDoYpDA

Filtering across a liquid cross-section of ETFs and equities (and excluding earnings names) the Trade Ideas algo picks up the following. Note across the market IV and RV remains elevated, no VRP on avg based on our RV calcs. The...
Bonds have not gotten the safe haven bid since Iran action commenced last Friday evening. $TLT - Rates still moving higher.
This is really something that comes up a lot (21% of the time in the past decade according to 35 liquid ETFs spanning many assets) and very easy to lure yourself into a misdirected option trade

Twelve months ago, I re-launched my newsletter as a subscription service to provide high-quality, affordable and objective research focused on energy issues. I have always been convinced high-quality research and analysis are essential for effective decision-making. The past year has confirmed...
$GNRC Dan Loeb’s THIRD POINT has a big new stake in Generac Holdings (GNRC). NEW, previously undisclosed CONFIRMED
The smartest clients I’ve helped buy Airbnbs purchased for Tax Benefits of owning Real Estate 100% Bonus depreciation Owning Long Term Passive Income Last
Sold paydays today on many names $BX $MC $ONDS $SNOW $ZS and sold a rung of the ladder on $HOOD
Further to what we said about the impact that the closing of the Strait of Hormuz has on the sulphur market… and therefore African copper production… Craig Tindale maps out that this is only one small piece of a giant...

In 1999-2000 Craig McCaw asked me to spend a lot of time working in the Benchmark offices on Sand Hill Road to find areas where co-investment was possible. I never learned so much, as Yogi Berra famously said, "just by...

The recent action in EWY fits a pattern that happens frequently enough to be worth understanding the SHAPE of its vol. You will find: 🌙handy measures 🌙inspiration for your own exploration 🌙GIT notebook to get you started with yfinance data https://t.co/MkdqLvqfC6 https://t.co/LDHZibQS9H
The housing market has tightened a little lately. I’m not saying it’s 2021 again. I’m just saying supply and demand have squeezed together a little. More thoughts on my weekly blog along with a discussion about that one home that...
Took a $STUB starter this morning. At ~$9/sh, EV of ~$3.4B represents ~8x 2026 EBITDA guide MP & ~22x RR FCF. Regulatory resale (~10% GMS) risks appear discounted. This is deeply discounted to any reasonable comp set for a scaled marketplace with...

Today’s podcast discusses a theory of mine on why #mortgagerates are near 6%, with hotter inflation data and the war with Iran driving up oil prices. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #economics #realestate #housing #chartdaddy

$IWM Daily. Rejection at 50-day m.a. for small caps, as possibility of rolling top since January more ominous. Watch back below $255 for confirmation. https://t.co/rbUjHSmmL3

September 2, 2025: Russia and China sign major new gas pipeline deal March 4, 2026: Putin says Russia may halt gas supplies to Europe https://t.co/kEjAnIqyrP
"I'm a new investor. How do I start?" 1. Sign up for a 401k/403b. Select Vanguard/Fidelity funds with low expense ratio. Contribute at least up to the match. 2. Open and max out HSA, if eligible 3. Roth IRA/max out the 401k/403b This is the...
Beware of False Narratives When we were shorting $WMT $10 higher than today's price (which is -$4.98 in trading), the "talking heads" made up narratives that the $WMT strength confirmed the notion that the consumer is swell. Stay independent and turn the...
CRM big push in Software today as well, call fly earnings play now more than a double, seeing a lot of these names rally with insider buys, buybacks into the Software is Dead move