Budgeting Variable Income: How Much Should You Allocate?
You’re 36, Tech Sales Director, Austin. $200k-$500k income. Married, 2 kids. $700k retirement, $300k brokerage, $50k cash. Your comp is highly variable. How much to you budget for expenses each year
Raise Tick‑Per‑Row for a Cleaner Volume Profile
Most traders use Volume Profile… but never set it up right 🤦♂️📊 If your profile looks chunky and sloppy, fix this one setting: Tick per row → raise it. Cleaner profile. Better detail. Smarter reads. ✅ Small tweak. Big difference. #VolumeProfile #FuturesTrading #TradingTips
Speculators' Bullishness Matches 2021‑22 Despite Ample Supply
📈Speculators' grain & oilseed bullishness has reached the levels of late March 2021 & 2022, times when balance sheets certainly looked tighter than today. But are supplies at risk this year? Fewer corn acres? Big bean oil demand? Weather scare? Trade...
Embrace Uncomfortable Stocks for Low‑Valuation Gains
In investing, comfort can come at a high price. Conversely, embracing discomfort can be rewarding, as stocks that make investors uneasy often trade at exceptionally low valuations.
Upcoming Earnings Calendar and Good Friday Market Closure
Here's who we have on deck for earnings this week. The market is closed on Good Friday.
Putin Thrives as U.S. Pivots Away From Russia’s Sanctions.
a surprisingly good month for putin. russia making bank on oil, gas. fertilizer. us sanctions suspended. us weapons now prioritized for iran war. russia supporting iran without consequence. and a russian tanker with oil now allowed through to cuba by...
HOLO FY25 Revenue Jumps 39%, Eyes Breakout
$HOLO - "MicroCloud Hologram Reports FY25 Revenue $56.5M, Up 39.1% YoY" Classic after-hours continuation setup here (S/D flip), so NO BREAK NO TRADE is more important than ever... if this does breakout, we've got range to $3/4+
Small Brent Move Wipes Out $100 Profit
Just mentioned to my business partner (wife) that Brent opened at $16.25 Realized I’m now dropping the leading $100
US Gas Hits $4.10, Biggest 4‑week Jump in 30 Years
Gas prices in the US rose to $4.10 per gallon last week, their highest level since August 2022. The 33% increase over the last 4 weeks ($3.07/gallon to $4.10/gallon) is the biggest 4-week spike we've seen in the past 30 years....
S&P 500 Forward P/E Drops 16% as Earnings Rise
Stock valuations are compressing sharply even as earnings estimates keep rising. The S&P 500 forward P/E has fallen 16% while the index itself is down just 8.7%. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/QZg0BjpnPg
NVDA Slump Could Erase $4 Trillion Market‑cap Club
If $NVDA has a bad week, the $4 trillion market cap club could be a party of 0 https://t.co/L42ydj32gK
Fertilizer Prices Surge 52%, Threatening Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since September 2022, rising 52% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. https://t.co/KYmqkbca60
Energy Soars, Financials Plunge: Stagflation’s Sector Split
A stunning 53% spread between the best and worst performing S&P 500 sectors so far this year: -Energy $XLE: +41% -Financials $XLF: -12% This is what stagflation looks like... https://t.co/mjjvgXsRDs
Liquidity and Solvency Ratios: Core Valuation Metrics
"Liquidity and solvency ratios are valuation inputs, not accounting trivia." Liquidity and solvency ratios aren’t just numbers, they show the real health of a company.
Conflict Risk and Negative Gamma Threaten Market Stability
Conflict risk combined with deeply negative gamma has destabilized markets. With a massive vol premium still embedded, the risk is that realized volatility catches up to meet implied vols. Read our full breakdown: https://t.co/n0KqLMYeDl
Still Open Solo 401(k) for Side Hustle, Contribute $70K
If you haven't filed your 2025 taxes yet and you had a side hustle for the 2025 tax year You can still open a solo 401(k) for your side hustle and use this to get up to $70K into this plan....
S&P 500 Slides 9%, Longest Correction Since 2022
The S&P 500 is now down 9% from its January peak. This is the biggest correction since the tariff tantrum last April and the longest since the 2022 bear market. $SPX https://t.co/QciAw5ESf1
Profitable, Non‑diluting Growth Beats Early Hype
Don’t worry if no one likes your investment idea. If the company is profitable and growing and not diluting the crowd will eventually come back to it.
Fed's Tightening Leeway Evaporates Amid New Data
Good thing the Fed has plenty of room to tighten conditions to address this… Oh wait…. https://t.co/xZ0zMju2vr https://t.co/uMkuuXymWU
All Magnificent Seven Stocks Lag S&P 500, Deep Declines
All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are down on the year (-8% for Apple to -26% for Microsoft) and underperforming the average stock in the S&P 500 (which is down -1%) by a wide margin. https://t.co/61SEyeq0tV
Wait for VIX Rejection Before
Pinning this so people stop confusing my patience with being bullish No longs until the VIX rejects & fades When it does…give it 48 hours
Strong SaaS Growth Offsets Multiple Contraction
While SaaS multiples have contracted meaningfully, 20-30% revenue CAGR since 2021 means that revenue has increased 150-250%, counteracting much of the multiple contraction from an LTV perspective (assuming no dividend recaps). Growth solves a lot of problems over time.
Iran War Triggers Double‑digit Commodity Price Surges
Price increases since the start of the Iran war... Heating Oil: +77% European Natural Gas: +71% Brent Crude Oil: +58% WTI Crude Oil: +51% Urea: +48% Diesel: +44% Sulfur: +43% Gasoline: +42% Fertilizer: +29% Coal: +21% Palm Oil: +14% Iron Ore: +7% Rice: +7% US Natural Gas: +6%
Bet on Patterns You See, Not Overanalyze
i learned to just start betting on the patterns i spot instead of trying to figure that out
Physical Oil Prices Set to Pull Paper Market Up
My latest with @davidlin_TV on physical vs. paper oil markets: "The physical markets are trading well above the paper market prices. Eventually, the paper market is going to be MUGGED BY REALITY, & the price of the paper market will be...
Market Crash: Every Listed Asset Plummets Below All‑Time High
% Below All-Time High ExxonMobil: 0% S&P 500: -9% Apple: -14% Gold: -20% Nvidia: -21% Google: -22% Amazon: -23% Tesla: -28% Palantir: -32% Meta: -34% Microsoft: -36% Silver: -43% Bitcoin: -48% Ethereum: -60% MicroStrategy: -77% Fartcoin: -94% Trump Coin: -96% Melania Coin: -99%
Catalyst Watch: Brace for a Volatile Stock Week
GET READY FOR ANOTHER CRAZY WEEK IN THE STOCK MARKET Here's a full catalyst watch to help you get prepared More below ⬇️🧵
Oil Could Spike to $150, Ignoring Market Risks
Larry Fink: oil could hit $150/bbl — even AFTER a ceasefire — if Iran remains a threat. Brent is already at $112. The tail risk isn't priced. Equities are still trading like this ends cleanly. What does $150 oil do to inflation? To...
S&P Faces Historic Wave of 1%+ Daily Drops
The S&P 500 fell 1.7% on Friday, its 10th daily decline so far this year with a loss above 1%. Expect to see many more of these days in the coming weeks & months - the average year since...
S&P 500 Slides
The S&P 500 is down 7% in the first 59 trading days of 2026, the 14th worst start to a year in history. $SPX https://t.co/giuunxMRVO
S&P 500 Slides Below Key Supports, Still Not Oversold
#SP500 Down Candle. Support 6360, 6212, 6201, 6059. Resistance 6453, 6573. RSI 31 low but not Oversold. Down Candle on Weekly. Top Bollinger Band 6770. Midpoint Line 6570. Bottom Band 6374.
Sunday Routine: Pay Bills, Plan Meals, Review Finances
Things we do on Sundays to get our money right for the week: 1. Pay off credit cards from the prior week 2. Grocery shopping /meal planning 3. Review our joint checking account 4. Review sinking fund accounts 5. Plan for the week's...
Treasury Data Shows U.S. Government Insolvent in FY2025
My take in @asiatimesonline on US debt: “The US gov't is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, which was released last week to near-total media silence.”...
CRE Success Requires Value Creation, Not Passive Holding
I don’t believe in holding commercial real estate long-term. Doing so means you are relying on two things to happen in order to get appreciation: Interest rates going down, or rents going up I don’t have control of either. “Buy and hold” made...
Dragonfly Capital's Top 5 Monday Stock Picks
Dragonfly Capital - 5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Amex, BP, CF, Sinclair and Goldman $AXP $BP $CF $DINO $GS https://t.co/Bcqkv1numr https://t.co/qWtU6zeK7Z
US Officials Anticipate Oil Soaring to $200 per Barrel
“.. US government officials and Wall Street analysts are starting to consider the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel.” @business https://t.co/jKbSZuzsl7 https://t.co/RvefSmh0vP
Houthis Threaten Bab El-Mandeb Closure, Endangering Global Food Supply
Yemeni Houthis has entered the Iran War, they are now considering closing Bab El Mandeb Strait. It is estimated that 12% of the world's trade passes through here. The FAO chief economist has already warned of potential global risks to...
Rising 10‑Year Yields and Oil Prices Highlight Def
Yes, indeed. 10-year yields are higher. Oil is materially higher. On the deficits side: I’m old enough to remember DOGE… https://t.co/9uWJASUd8q https://t.co/K8XMoJFshw
200-Day MA Collapse Turns Support Into Resistance
The 200-day moving average failed. Market tested it. Retested it. Couldn't close above it. Every fund manager who bought the dip at that level is now underwater. Stop-losses triggered. Margin calls widened. The buyers became sellers. When a level breaks repeatedly, it stops...
Nvidia Hits S&P 500 Forward P/E Parity After Decade
GOLDMAN DESK: “.. Nvidia now trades at par / slight discount to the S&P500 on fwd P/E for the first time in 10+ years. “.. yes, Nvidia is now trading at par with the S&P500 on fwd P/E despite, Nvidia...
10‑Year Treasury Yield Signals Oil’s Impending Downturn
Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows": https://t.co/goqhygmgv6
Tampa Bay Vacancy Hits 8.7%, Sparking Vertical Growth
What's going on in the Tampa Bay area? Apartment vacancies just spiked to 8.7%. Haven't seen anything like this in 10+ years. They're going vertical. https://t.co/EXZxZsIT13
US Gas Prices Stay Low, Softening Energy Shock Impact
For the American economy, the key different between the current energy shock and previous ones is the (lack of) impact in US natural gas prices. That's crucial for industrial activity and electricity prices (and thus inflation). Far less reported than...
Earning $400k+? Master Saving, Not Just Income
Most people making $400k+/year have spent years perfecting the skill of earning. Almost none of them have spent a single hour learning the skill of keeping. Those two skills have very different payoffs over a lifetime.
Weekly Market Report: Mission Accomplished Across Major ETFs
Weekly report for subs is out. Weekly Market Report: Mission Accomplished $SPY $GLD $TLT $DBC $VEU Link in reply below 👇 https://t.co/sJzfMMS4Mg
Rising 5% Breakeven Inflation Threatens S&P Valuations
Bond markets have rapidly repriced near-term expectations for U.S. inflation in response to surging commodity prices. The implied 1-year breakeven inflation rate is now above 5% for the first time since 2022. Elevated bond market-implied inflation expectations may present a problem...
Premium Users Get This Week's Top Trade Ideas
Premium Users - Top Trade Ideas for the Week of March 30, 2026: The Best, on the blog and here https://t.co/ZHdwBmlB7n
2026 Demands Higher Caps—Don’t Wait for Naive Buyers
Dear sellers stuck in the past: A property we’re about to list with a broker would’ve sold at a 4.75% cap in 2021. It will be listed at a 6.25% cap. Why are we selling at a 24% discount to 2021? Because it’s...
Closing Hormuz: Strategic Disruption, Not Just Conflict
They were always going to close the Strait of Hormuz. This was never a side development. It was central to the strategy. Because the objective isn’t just confrontation — it’s disruption: energy flows, shipping routes, and the systems that rely on them. That changes the...
Speed Trumps Higher Margins in Home Building
These firms are primarily solving for speed of construction and sales and maximal return on each equity dollar. A 20% margin home they can build and sell in 3 months is BETTER than a 40% margin in 6 months 1.2^4 =2.0736x 1.4^2...