Calm S&P Masks Turbulence, 2026 Stock Picker’s Market
“The S&P looks calm… but underneath, it’s churning like crazy.” Great convo with @GinaMartinAdams on concentration risk, price-to-sales extremes, and why 2026 may be a stock picker’s market. 🎙️ Latest episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast: https://t.co/6P2xtsblvM https://t.co/tohQDT7fRk
AI Could Boost ServiceNow, Not Just Threaten It
Is $NOW really at risk of AI disruption? $NOW is down ~52% from ATH. The bear case is simple: ~97% of revenue is seat-based. If AI reduces headcount, seat growth slows. But the real question is whether AI replaces ServiceNow… or makes...
Jobless Claims Stay Low, Equilibrium Unchanged
Jobless claims update: Another week of low initial claims and stable continuing claims, suggesting no change in the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. https://t.co/umbJshwxL5
Maximize HSA: Early Contributions, S‑Corp Reimbursement, S&P500 Growth
How I use my HSA 1.) Have a high-deductible health plan. I pay $376.65/month (ridiculous) for a plan and my LLC taxed as an S corp reimburses me for this via an accountable plan 2.) Max contribute each year on Jan 1....
Delta: The Sole Greek Worth Tracking
Moontower Thursday Finally got around to writing on this topic... "delta is the only greek" https://t.co/KRPirWhJSY
Protect Profits, Skip Trading on Volatile Friday
🚨 5 Reasons I’m NOT Trading This Friday 🚨 1️⃣ Weekly Target = HIT ✅ My goal is +100 pips per week We banked +132 pips in just 2 days Discipline > Greed Once the target is hit, I go into protection mode 2️⃣ U.S. Supreme...
From $4B Deal
He made $4B for his old firm and $900M for himself. Then sued to break a noncompete—and launched a hedge fund that gained 20% in year one.
30‑Year TIPS Auction Pressures Long‑End Breakevens
Long-end breakevens have been under pressure with a brand new 30y TIPS ($9B) up for auction later today. This will be it for the long end though. Rest of the month is front (2s) and belly (5s &...
Miran Says Stronger Labor, Goods Inflation May Raise 2026 Dot
Stephen Miran, long viewed as the Fed’s arch dove, tells The Peg that firm labour data and a pickup in goods inflation could justify revising his 2026 dot higher. https://t.co/qevsjpOlwA
NYSE Advance-Decline Line Reaches All-Time High
If you were to track the daily net difference between advancing and declining stocks on the NYSE and build a cumulative Advance Decline line, you would see it just hit the highest level in history. https://t.co/Eg6hlzbbe6
Rising Car Prices Spur New‑Used Gap, Boosting Used Market
Interesting commentary from Sonic Automotive on their call and the affordability issues that are still here and possibly about to rise again: “And look, January was a hell of a month. Without the snowstorms, it would have been a magnificent month....
AI Productivity Gains Pave Way for Fed Rate Cut
The combination of decent economic data (see last week’s employment data) and the softer inflation report might be anecdotal evidence that the promise of an AI-driven productivity boom (which would lift the economy’s non-inflationary speed limit) is becoming a reality....
Earnings and Dividends Now Power Half of Market Gains
One positive aspect of the evolution of this market cycle has been how the market has become less reliant on multiple expansion. Earnings and dividends now comprise almost half of the cumulative gains since October 2022, with the P/E expansion...
German ECB Critics Exit Over Fiscal‑Support Shift
Only actions matter, not words. The actions: Germans who stand for separation of monetary and fiscal policies (Jens Weidmann, Axel Weber, Jürgen Starck) left the ECB due to its drift into fiscal support for high-debt countries. The ECB is losing...
Shared Finances Are Essential for a Successful Marriage
If you’re talking about marriage but you can’t talk about money, you’re not ready for marriage. Money fights are the number one cause of divorce in America. You have to get on the same page. Because if you’re building a life...
Investing Enables Flexible, Part‑Time Retirement Income
Investing isn’t all or nothing especially if you consider a phased retirement. You work 20 hours a week to cover most of your expenses while your investments supplement your income. Investing is about giving you flexibility and options.
Bears Outnumber Bulls as Jobless Claims Hit Year Low
More bears than bulls in the AAII poll, first time since the late November low. Also, initial jobless claims at the lowest level this year. Not the worst combo. https://t.co/eMyO6gjFm0
PANW Posts Explosive Growth, $30B M&A Pending
$PANW: TR +15%, Product Rev +22%, TTM Software Firewall +42%, RPO +22% and 110 new platformization deals w/conserve but DD guides. $30B worth of M&A hasn't even kicked in yet.
PWR Posts EPS Beat, Backlog Hits All‑Time High
$PWR: more evidence of the DC+Grid+Power theme - EPS beat/raise with Year-End Remaining Performance Obligations of $23.76B and Total Backlog of $43.98B. Year-End Electric Infrastructure Solutions Segment RPO and Total Backlog Reach All-Time Highs.
Walmart Automation Slashes Labor Costs, Boosts Productivity
Automation efforts are cutting down labor costs, increasing productivity and improving delivery speeds @Walmart per its earnings call. @DowJones
Nvidia's Strong Two-Day Bounce Signals Potential Support
$nvda two day bounce was stronger than most. So watch his this acts for clues. If it’s any good. It should hold yesterday’s low https://t.co/XJBWZ8I5A9
Trade Range‑bound Stocks with Red‑dog Reversals
📺 RED DOG REVERSALS & RED-TO-GREEN TRADES — CASH FLOW MODE Some short-term tactical trades inside choppy, range-bound markets: 1. $AMZN I had a profitable Red Dog Reversal trade from $197.28. The stock bounced and pushed toward the 8-day moving average. It wasn’t...
Global Markets Outperform S&P, Gap Widens in 2025
The ex-U.S. trade is finally working Every major country is outperforming the S&P 500 this year The gap since the start of 2025 is widening Germany & South Korea haveoutperformed over the past 5 yrs Will it last? https://t.co/WxrRxkwriN https://t.co/JKBVG5eT39
Monster Beverage Beats Apple, Nvidia, Amazon Over 25 Years
Value now of $1 invested 25 years ago: Monster Beverage: $8,025 Apple: $779 Nvidia: $761 Amazon: $301 Booking .com $217 Autozone $144 Sherwin-Williams:42 Caterpillar $35 Deere $29 Costco $23 Lowe’s $20 Starbucks $16 Adobe: $14 Microsoft: $14 McDonald’s $11 Nike: $10
Beginner's Guide: All 11 SPDR S&P 500 Sector ETFs
📊 If you are a beginner and want to learn the key Sector ETFs to track. Below is a good starting point. Here is the full suite of SPDR S&P 500 Sector ETFs from State Street: $XLK – Technology $XLC – Communication Services $XLY...
U.S. Ethanol Efficiency Metric Surges Unexpectedly in 2025
1. Something unusual happened to a key indicator of operational efficiency in the U.S. ethanol industry in 2025. See my latest FDD for all the details: https://t.co/ehKyQvEQGp
Sudan's Pound Plummets 27%, Ranks 6th Worst
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST currency. The Sudanese pound has depreciated by over 27% against the USD in the past year. IT’S TIME TO DUMP THE SUDANESE POUND & REPLACE IT WITH THE US...
Philadelphia Fed: Economic Activity Rises While Inflation Falls
Philly Fed survey just out. Activity UP, prices DOWN. Not too bad. See attached https://t.co/lodqOUkSnH
Trade the Range Now, Skip Breakout Expectations
📺 STOP WAITING FOR THE BREAKOUT, TRADE THE RANGE FOR NOW Get today's newsletter: https://t.co/Rqp84Wg39F My core message to everyone today: stop expecting big follow-through and start trading the range that’s actually in front of you. That’s the environment right now: quick pushes,...
China’s Growth Model Shift Faces Deep Structural Hurdles
Now that there is a consensus on what has caused the imbalances and why they are so damaging to China and to the global economy, we have to begin to understand just why it will be so difficult for China...
Upcoming Earnings Spotlight: Rolls‑Royce, HSBC, Nvidia
Plenty to talk about on today's podcast with @MrMBrown including Rolls-Royce, HSBC and Nvidia set to report as February draws to a close https://t.co/gqZEqamM2t
China’s Hidden Subsidies Dwarf IMF’s 4% Estimate
FT: “The IMF estimated that China spends about 4 per cent of its GDP subsidising companies in critical sectors, and said it should reduce that by 2 percentage points in the medium term.” This is a start, of course, but just...
Physical Commodities Surge, Challenging Digital Dominance Decade
CLANCs = Copper, Lithium, Aluminum, Nickel, Cobalt. Copper ripped 30% in Jan, then erased ~1/3 — still ~+20% YTD. Secular shortage story → oversupply in days as inventories hit multi-year highs. For decades, digital dominated physical. The physical world is back with a...
Dollar Climbs vs G10, Stays Weak vs EM
The Dollar is up sharply in recent days. But this rise is only happening versus the G10 (blue). The Dollar remains near its recent lows versus EM (black) and that's what you want to watch for future Dollar direction. We're...
North America Leads Dollar Decline, Europe Holds Firm
FX Market Awaits North American Leadership: The North American market took the dollar lower on Tuesday, and there was little follow through selling. Yesterday, the dollar as bid in North America and rather than resist, European more than Asia Pacific…...
Live: Team Picks Hershey Stock, Reviews Toilet Paper
We're LIVE with my accountable teammates - kicking things off with a BUY Hershey $HSY rundown by Biolsi @Hedgeye_Staples , also analyzing toilet paper
Berkshire's Apple Sale to NYT Sparks Sell Recommendation
How much confidence do you have in $BRK.B now that it sells its Apple stock to buy the New York Times? For me, it is time to sell Berkshire https://t.co/YR01TZTPdL
Record AD Line, Yet Bears Outnumber Bulls Since Thanksgiving
Despite the NYSE Advance-Decline line hitting new all-time highs again yesterday, the American Association of Individual Investors reported this morning that there are actually more bears the bulls for the first time since Thanksgiving. What do you think they're so...
Equity Futures Slip, Yields Rise Slightly Ahead of Jobless Claims
Thursday: Equity futures lower, treasury yields edge higher by 1-2 bps and dollar steady. Jobless claims in focus today.
Simple, Low‑cost ETFs Outpace Fancy Strategies
I'll say it 1,000 times... Simple > complicated. A few low-cost ETFs, consistent contributions, and patience beat most “fancy” strategies. Boring plans quietly build six-figure accounts.
Mixed Currency Moves Amid Rising Iran War Risk
Hello Traders 📉 Stock futures🔻Iran war risk grows, Russia complains about Cuba oil blockade 🇺🇸 USD 🔄 mixed ahead of jobless claims, Philly Fed & trade 🇪🇺 EUR 🔻 despite stronger current account 🇨🇦 CAD ⬆️ supported by higher oil prices 🇬🇧 GBP 🔻 slides...
China's Auto Export Surge Hits EU Markets, Tariffs Powerless
China's auto exports went vertical in Dec. '25. All those cars go to EM (red), not the G10 (blue). That complicates EU efforts to protect its car makers. China's export surge is decimating EU export markets. There's not much EU...
INSM Projects 2026 Brinsupri Sales Minimum $1B
$INSM guides to 2026 Brinsupri sales of "at least $1B" in line with consensus. https://t.co/o7JhPKU3m1
Walmart's Earnings Slide Mirrors Modern Retail Reality
You've got the same-day delivery guy with the influencer POV phone setup. The Walmart earnings presentation cover slide is a snapshot of the state of retail https://t.co/71SdhBOqeq
Retail Private Credit Set to Reach Trillions, Threaten Industry
The volume of retail-focused private credit funds has ballooned over the last few years, and is expected to grow to trillions of dollars of assets in that next few years. This points to why this could challenge the broader industry:...
Stay Cautious on Retail, Long Amazon, Short Walmart, Costco
(In contrast to the bullish view expressed yesterday on the Fin TV show - see SLINK's confident consumer outlook on @cnbc), we remain cautious on the consumer. This week we put on a three way pairs trade - long $AMZN/Short $COST...
Retail Investors Dump $8.3B, Near‑Historic Outflows
BofA Clients Sold Stocks at Near-Historic Levels via Bbrg: “Clients dumped US equities last week, with outflows reaching near-historic levels.” “Outflows were the *third highest* since records began in 2008.” [$8.3 Billion] *Who will be right: Retail/HFs or Institutions?
Belgian Dentists Shift Half Pension to Private Credit
Belgian dentists recently allocating 50% of their pension pot to private credit after volatility has come down a notch. https://t.co/vOglUU153U
Steve Cohen's Hedge Fund Delivers $3.4B Payday, 2025 Top
Mets owner Steve Cohen got a $3.4 billion payday from his hedge fund last year. Here are the top earners in 2025: https://t.co/ZRuqldhcBZ https://t.co/p6eqszYRZM
EU Gas Storage at 32%—Second Lowest Since 2011
EU GAS STORAGE facilities are now less than one-third full, with more than a month of the winter heating season probably still ahead. Storage facilities were on average 32.5% full on February 17, the second lowest seasonal fill in records...