Investing Videos

You're (Probably) Buying the Wrong Junior Mining Stocks

The video tackles a common pitfall in resource investing: buying junior mining stocks based on headline‑grabbing economic studies that often turn out to be more fantasy than fact. Host Antonio brings on Jordan, a former travel‑vlogger turned independent mining analyst, to dissect why advanced‑stage juniors with pre‑feasibility or feasibility studies can still be mispriced, especially when investors rely on those documents as absolute valuation tools. Jordan emphasizes that the quality of the management team and the liquidity of the stock outweigh the raw numbers in a PA or PFS. He prefers royalty and prospect‑generator models, which provide upside with limited downside, and warns that most pure explorers require an exceptionally high confidence level before he will allocate capital. Commodity price cycles also shape his strategy: buying metals when they are cheap reduces risk because demand rises and supply contracts, whereas high‑priced precious metals increase exposure to price corrections. Key moments include Jordan’s admission that “practically all” his portfolio is in mining, his critique that “NPV is fantasy, capex is fantasy,” and his insistence on scrutinizing discount rates, after‑tax cash flows, and the credentials of the consulting firm that signed off the study. He cites B2 Gold’s Namibia PA as a rare example where a reputable management team justified his trust, and he flags red‑flags such as CEOs acting as qualified persons on technical reports. For investors, the takeaway is clear: don’t chase junior stocks solely on headline studies. Conduct a top‑down, commodity‑driven analysis, verify assumptions, prioritize firms with strong, liquid management, and tilt toward royalties or base‑metal exposure to mitigate the heightened risk inherent in over‑valued precious‑metal juniors.