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MRNA Starts 2026 Volatile: Examining Rally & Pullback, Outsized Options

Market on Close highlighted Moderna’s volatile trajectory as the stock climbed 5% following a narrower fourth‑quarter loss and reaffirmed a 10% revenue‑growth goal for 2026. While revenue contracted 30% year‑over‑year, management signaled a rebound with future sales split evenly between the United States and overseas markets. Technical analysis from lead market technician Rick Carter showed the stock up 32% over the past year, outpacing the broader health‑care sector, yet still respecting key resistance levels around $48‑$55 and support near $35‑$41. Analysts at RBC and Jefferies upgraded price targets to $30 and $37 respectively, reflecting optimism despite a recent FDA refusal to review Moderna’s new seasonal flu vaccine—a move that adds regulatory uncertainty to the company’s vaccine‑centric portfolio. Options activity underscored the market’s mixed sentiment: daily volume spiked to 5.1 times the five‑day average, with roughly 170,000 contracts changing hands. The most active strikes were calls at $47 and $30 and puts at $45 and $35, while a notable opening trade involved 14,447 call contracts at a $3 debit, representing a $4.3 million bullish position. For investors, the juxtaposition of a technical bounce, upgraded analyst forecasts, and heightened options flow suggests a short‑term upside bias, but the FDA setback and lingering sector‑rotation dynamics keep downside risk alive. Monitoring the $35‑$41 support corridor and upcoming earnings will be crucial as the market gauges whether Moderna can sustain its rebound amid regulatory headwinds.