Berkovitz Recalls CFTC’s Scramble to Build Swaps Regime After Dodd-Frank
Former CFTC commissioner Dan Berkovitz reflected on the agency’s rapid construction of a swaps regime after Dodd‑Frank, emphasizing the philosophical rather than partisan nature of internal debates. Meanwhile, U.S. futures commission merchants face a record $49.1 billion capital requirement by January 2026, up 4.1% month‑over‑month. Adaptive CEO Matt Barrett warned that legacy technology is lagging firm ambitions, driving demand for modular, cloud‑based platforms to support tokenization and 24/7 trading. Former regulator Gary Gensler cautioned that political pressure threatens the independence of key market watchdogs, a risk to market depth and liquidity.
Relief From VIX Updates After Busy Stock Call Season
In case people forgot how I get down with stock calls on threads May-Sept......and then we had a lil mini run in January & then I had to tell everybody VIX levels for 2 months Thank God I don't have to say...
Greed Wins: S&P Up 31% After VIX Spike
Update: a year ago, the $VIX ended the week at 45.3, one of its highest weekly closes in history. The S&P 500 has rallied 31% since then, adding to the list of times when it paid to be greedy when...
The Closer – Record Backwardation, Supply Chain Stress – 4/7/26
Brent spot prices have entered an unprecedented backwardation, trading more than $30 per barrel above the front‑month June Brent futures contract. The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and the Logistics Managers Index both recorded sharply rising prices...
Rare DXY Gap Appears in 23‑Hour Futures Market
Very rare event in the 23-hr futures market where you rarely ever see gaps. Look at the #DXY tonight #forex $UUP $FXE #DXY https://t.co/vOGAm4AaUO
Falling TDEX Signals Market Complacency Amid Crash Bets
The tail risk index (TDEX) is a measure to understand the cost of protection against a possible crash as it shows the implied volatility of far OTM puts of SPX. Currently is heading lower giving us a confirmation of complacency...
Capital Flows Livestream: CPI, Iran - Will the VIX Blow Out?
Capital Flows is launching a livestream that spotlights four market themes it believes are under‑priced. The discussion will cover the WTI‑Brent spread, now at its widest since 2008, and record‑high crude options open interest, which could amplify tail risk. It...
SPX Futures Eye 6680: Break Upside, Drop to 6316
$SPX futures are testing the downtrend line from below after bouncing off $6498 support. $6680 is the level. Break and hold above it changes the picture. Fail here, and 6,316 is still on the table.
Consistent Small Wins Outperform Home‑Run Options Strategies
Options income isn’t about hitting home runs. It’s about stacking singles: • sell puts • collect premium • manage risk • repeat Boring strategies tend to pay the most.
Q1 ETF Flow Trends & Next Evolution Options Strategies (NEOS)
In the Q1 2026 episode, Nate Geraci and Cynthia Murphy dissect record ETF inflows of over $460 billion, highlighting a shift toward low‑fee, safety‑first products amid market volatility and geopolitical tension. They note the surge of money‑market and ultra‑short bond ETFs,...
Taco Trade: 1‑DTE SP
Put on a little debit buttefly on $SPX 1 DTE - I rather call it the #taco trade. An anticipation that DJT doens't do it and the market has a nice relieve bounce tmorrow. What do you guys think?
Bearish Action On Snowflake Stock Points To This Option Trade
Snowflake (SNOW) slipped 1.6% to $149.38, breaking a broader market rally and signaling bearish momentum. The article proposes a bear‑call spread (170/175 strikes, May 15 expiry) costing about $1 per share, offering a maximum $100 gain and a capped $400 loss—roughly...
Tesla Short Sellers Profit by Exploiting Hype, Not Fundamentals
Btw, the Tesla shorts are some of the most brilliant investors, traders, and hedge fund managers out there. People like Jim Chanos who predicted the fall of Enron. They are sharks. When they see the $TSLA cucks screaming and crying...
Oil Shock Sorts Cruise Lines Into the Hedged and Hedged Nots
A sudden spike in global oil prices has added roughly $1.2 billion in fuel costs to the cruise industry. Companies that locked in fuel prices through hedging contracts are largely insulated, preserving operating margins, while those without hedges face earnings pressure...
RWA Perps Unlock High‑Liquidity, High‑Sharpe Trading Opportunities
One of the most exciting transitions in this ecosystem: RWA Perps. I'm very happy and glad to be trading RWA's on a 24/7 basis with lower fees. As a HFT trader within @MNFund_ we design complex quant strategies for our trading, solely...
Brent Futures Hit Record Backwardation Amid US‑Iran Tensions
Brent (physical and futures) still pricing for a short war Brent prices have surged into a record backwardation as the United States and Iran threaten to escalate their conflict by attacking energy infrastructure on both sides of the Persian Gulf. In the...
Little Evidence of Increase in USD Hedge Ratios
European investors have not increased their dollar hedges despite early‑year dollar weakness. Danish insurers and pension funds cut their FX hedge ratio to 70.3% in February, the lowest level since before April 2023. Private‑sector foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries has...
AMDY: Still A Buy, But Expectations Should Be Lower
YieldMax AMD Option Income Strategy ETF (AMDY) was downgraded from Strong Buy to Buy as analysts see limited near‑term upside for AMD and a structure that favors upside capture over steady income. The fund’s call‑spread design delivers strong gains during...
Indicator of the Day (Video): CBOE Index Put/Call Ratio
HedgeFundTips released a one‑minute video highlighting the CBOE Index Put/Call Ratio as today’s market indicator. The clip shows the latest ratio level against its historical range alongside S&P 500 price action. A rising ratio points to growing bearish sentiment, while...
Mid-Session IV Report April 7, 2026
The Mid‑session IV Report (April 7, 2026) highlights a surge in option implied volatility (IV) across several tech and consumer names, with Applied Digital (APLD) reaching a 30‑day IV of 200 and Levi (LEVI) hitting 120 ahead of earnings. Other notable IV...
CME Group Expands Crypto Futures with Avalanche and Sui Contracts
CME Group announced it will add Avalanche (AVAX) and Sui (SUI) futures to its crypto derivatives platform, with both standard and micro contracts launching on May 4 pending regulatory clearance. The contracts will be sized at 5,000 AVAX/500 AVAX and 50,000 SUI/5,000 SUI respectively, expanding...
Hedge Funds Make Record Bets Against European Stocks
Hedge funds have placed record‑size short bets on European equities, pushing total short exposure to roughly €12 billion, a 40% year‑on‑year increase. The surge follows tightening monetary policy, lingering inflation, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty across the region. Data from trade repositories...
SPY
Elevated negative gamma exposure present under spot on $SPY. It is testing a break of $655 now; if there's follow-through, $650 is the next support. As Trump's Iran ceasefire deadline approaches, the market will be looking for any catalysts.
CME Group Plans to Launch Avalanche and Sui Futures
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group announced plans to launch futures contracts on Avalanche and Sui, pending regulatory approval. The contracts will be available in both standard and micro sizes, offering capital efficiency and strategic flexibility for traders. This addition expands...
Soybean Speculators’ Long Stance Fueled by Rising Crude
Bullish Soybean Specs May Depend on Higher Crude At about 19% of open interest, soybean complex managed money (hedge fund) positions are the most net long in roughly three years. Are speculators too optimistic despite a supply glut from Brazil? My...
Corn Speculators Near Peak Longs as Prices Hover $5
Corn Revisits $5 With Specs Long, Gas Falling At about 15% of futures open interest, net-long corn speculators may be overly optimistic for higher prices. My graphic shows spec longs approaching last year's 1Q peak near 18% -- about when the...
Dianthus Therapeutics CFO Ryan Savitz Cashes Out $9.5 Million in Stock Sale
Dianthus Therapeutics’ chief financial officer, Ryan Savitz, exercised and sold 114,367 shares for roughly $9.49 million on March 31, 2026. The transaction, executed under a pre‑arranged Rule 10b5‑1 plan, leaves him with 90,399 unexercised stock options, underscoring continued equity exposure despite the cash‑out.
Fed Dovish Shift Boosts Bullish Momentum, Watch ES
The Fed's dovish shift is music to bulls' ears as inflation continues cooling. Markets are already pricing in easier monetary policy ahead. Tomorrow we'll be watching how ES reacts to this momentum using our DOTS indicator for precise entries. https://t.co/66dSROf2rQ...
Mism
The mismatch also made for great fun for rel val trading the vols and cleaning for when an event fell between expiries. Also fun when your Brent greeks went away since they expired earlier, an issue you didn't sweat when...
Strait of Hormuz Closure Sends Oil to $110 a Barrel, Reshapes Energy Markets
The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran’s war escalated has lifted Brent crude to about $110 per barrel, delivering windfalls to oil‑rich nations while straining global supply chains. President Donald Trump’s ultimatum and fresh U.S. strikes on Iran’s...
Watch for Outlier Trades Before Market Close
Half an hour to the regular close. Keep your eyes out for outlier prediction market trades and options activity on major/liquid equity index derivatives...
Physical Brent Hits $150 Before Options Predict It
While the options market bets on Brent crude futures hitting a record $150 a barrel, in the physical market cargo prices have already got there https://t.co/mfaujswneF
Mixed March for Managed Futures
March’s managed‑futures landscape was dominated by heightened geopolitical risk after the US and Israel struck Iran, sparking cross‑asset volatility. Nordic CTAs slipped modestly, with trend‑following managers posting losses while non‑trend, especially machine‑learning strategies, generated strong gains. Energy markets rallied, offsetting...
CAR Near $250 Resistance, Potential Squeeze to $300
$CAR trading into resistance in confluence with the 250 call wall. If you've got the pistons, this is a spot to play with defined risk, preferably a close below $250. Hold above, and the squeeze to $300 stays in...
Inflation‑Adjusted Six‑Month Futures Spread Near Record
"After adjusting for inflation, the six-month futures spread is on course to exceed the previous record set in October 1990, after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and as the United States and its allies massed forces in the Gulf." @JKempEnergy https://t.co/26TVbx2H9d
The Case For Convertibles... When Many Things Could Happen
In Q1 2026 convertible securities delivered strong performance as equity markets slipped, offering investors growth exposure while tempering downside volatility. The Calamos Convertible Fund (CICVX) remains confident amid heightened geopolitical risk, emphasizing a fundamentally driven approach. AI infrastructure is highlighted...
Markets Stay Calm Amid Trump's Apocalyptic Warning
President Trump posted "A whole civilization will die tonight..." and the markets seem to be almost totally disregarding the threat... SPX has carved out a restricted range, 5-day ATR is pulling back and the implied overnight volatility in $VIX1D little worried......
NVDA Call Implied Volatility Still Low vs Rich Index Options
Index options are relatively rich single stocks seem cheap this is the ~90DTE NVDA ~5 delta call IV since 2024 https://t.co/LKZoIvKcjG
ICAP Rolls Out Dry FFA Desk
ICAP has launched a global dry forward freight agreement (FFA) desk spanning London, Copenhagen, Dubai and Singapore, providing 24‑hour coverage of the main freight trading hubs. The desk will handle capesize, panamax, supramax and handysize routes as well as time‑charter...
Accepting Small Losses After Selling VIX Near Peak
Sold a little may vix futures near the high. Happy to lose 20 points on this.
Futures
The oil futures market continues to price a big TACO. Physical oil quotes are sky high, but futures imply a significant improvement in supply in a few weeks. If the market moves to priced a much longer disruption — and see below...
OVL: Your Chance To Outperform The S&P While Collecting A 10% Yield
Overlay Shares Large Cap Equity ETF (OVL) employs a covered‑call strategy that delivers a 10.49% yield while targeting outperformance of the S&P 500. The fund sells short‑dated puts on 75‑100% of its holdings, generating monthly return‑of‑capital distributions. Since its 2019 launch,...
Chris Verrenon
ICYMI: @verrone_chris swung by MRKT call this morning with Dan & @GuyAdami 🎙️ WATCH: https://t.co/pzHBghGVk6 https://t.co/h1ZqY8gJbX
Soybean Complex Becomes Oil‑Driven as CBOT Oilshare Hits Record
📈CBOT oilshare on Tuesday reached a modern-day record high of 52.8%, driven by unrelenting strength in soybean oil since the beginning of the year. This means the soybean complex is more oil-led than ever before, a departure from how the complex...
CME Launches AVAX and SUI Futures on May 4
🇺🇸 The CME exchange will start trading futures on $AVAX and $SUI on May 4. https://t.co/CY0MncvQWy
VIX Stuck in Low‑Volatility ‘Chop Bucket’ All Year
CHART OF THE DAY: VIX Has Traded in the Chop Bucket for Most of 2026's 65 Trading Days https://t.co/bmwQVhQ8D3 via @hedgeye
TSLA Must Stay Above 342 for Call Profit
bought some 350 calls for next week. probably needs to start holding above 342 today for a bounce. $TSLA
May WTI Crude Surges to New High, Up 20%
May WTI crude oil futures are now at a new high and up 20% from Friday's low. https://t.co/rqftGvnrgP
First 2026 Breadth Thrust Signals Positive, More Needed
We got the first breadth thrust of 2026 yesterday (at least the first of the many that I track). Is that a good sign? Yes. Is one enough? No. I prefer to see at least 4 over a two-week period....
High Volatility Overprices SPX Calls, Hedging Impossible
A three month 7250 SPX call costs 30. In two weeks if SPX is 6950 it will be worth 45-50. Vol is simply too high to hedge either direction.